Matchup Analysis: Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Raiders 17, Vikings 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense17.0 (-4.8) (25)114 (+4) (12)218 (-30) (22)
Vikings Defense16.5 (-5.3) (7)108 (+0) (15)232 (-17) (13)

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense22.0 (+0.2) (13)185 (+76) (3)160 (-88) (31)
Raiders Defense22.0 (+0.2) (17)63 (-45) (5)341 (+92) (32)

Raiders Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

In week three, offseason acquisition Richie Incognito will enter the fold at left guard for the Oakland Raiders. Incognito missed the entire 2018 season, but when he last played for the Buffalo Bills in 2017, Incognito consistently ranked amongst the league's best interior offensive linemen. The impact that one year on the sidelines will have on Incognito's production is unknown, but he will be starting in place of one of the league's worst offensive linemen, Jordan Devey, in week three. Incognito's inclusion in the starting lineup will undoubtedly serve to improve an otherwise mediocre unit. Behind the offensive line, rookie running back Josh Jacobs has impressed through two NFL starts. In his NFL debut, Jacobs neared 100 yards on the ground and would have eclipsed that total in his week two if not for dehydration issues and lingering groin injury that kept him sidelined for a portion of the second half. Head coach Jon Gruden has made his intentions clear: he plans on getting Jacobs 20+ touches as often as possible throughout his rookie season. Josh Jacobs is an undeniably-talented running back poised to see near-bell-cow levels of involvement in the Raiders offense. Even when Oaklands' offensive line fails, as they did for the majority of the season opener against the Denver Broncos, Jacobs proved he can break through the defense for chunk-plays to salvage a respectable rushing performance.

Minnesota's run defense has allowed an almost perfectly-average 4.3 yards-per-carry, good for 17th in the NFL. In a week one domination of the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings allowed just 50 rushing yards to opposing running backs Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith. In week two, a 21-16 loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings allowed 144 yards on the ground to opposing running backs, including 116 to starter Aaron Jones. Minnesota's run-defense is particularly interesting to analyze, as it is littered with players who have historically been strong defending the run. Through two weeks in the 2019 season, a handful of players, particularly on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps, have struggled to stop the run. At defensive tackle, Linval Joseph has long been one the league's premier run-stopping defensive tackles. Now, entering his 9th NFL season, Joseph's numbers have dropped off significantly from where they have been in recent years. One explanation for this drop in production is that Joseph is playing alongside a notably-weak run defender at defensive tackle, Shamar Stephen, who may be dragging him down. At linebacker, four-time pro-bowler Anthony Barr has struggled through the first two weeks of the 2019 season. Much like Joseph, these struggles are unlike anything Barr has shown to this point in his career. Minnesota's defense finished the 2018 season as a middle-of-the-road unit. The 2019 season has picked up right where last year left off, but there are likely areas of improvement that may take the Vikings' run defense to the next level as a whole.

Raiders Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

In week two, Oakland's passing attack failed to build upon the momentum of its impressive showing in week one against the Denver Broncos. At home against the Kansas City Chiefs, while playing catch-up for the majority of the game, Derek Carr elected to dump the ball off underneath rather than push the ball down the field. The refusal to attempt deep-passes highly resembles Derek Carr's 2018 passing tendencies, which proved to be highly inefficient. Although his tendencies changed wildly from week one to week two, Carr's favorite targets remained the same. Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller proved to stand alone atop the depth chart once again against Kansas City with seven targets each. Rookie Hunter Renfrow emerged as a potentially viable option after a quiet NFL debut with 4 receptions for 30 yards on 8 targets in week two. On the offensive line, the Raiders get Richie Incognito back from a two-game suspension heading into a week three clash with the Minnesota Vikings. Before sitting out the 2018 season, Incognito had progressed into one of the NFL's best interior pass-blockers. Incognito remains a bit of an unknown entering his first start in nearly 625 days, but it is almost inconceivable that his performance will be worse than Jordan Devey, the team's fill-in at left guard.

Through two weeks, Minnesota's pass defense has been impressive. In the season opener, the Atlanta Falcons struggled to move the ball down the field, en-route to just a 12-point offensive performance. An early Vikings lead forced the Falcons into a pass-heavy approach throughout the game. The subsequent 304 passing yards compiled by quarterback Matt Ryan were primarily a product of a massive 46 pass attempts. In week two, the Minnesota Vikings went into Green Bay lost 21-16 as Aaron Rodgers threw for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of the touchdowns came on a slip screen to running back Aaron Jones, and Minnesota's pass defense is hardly to blame the score. The Minnesota secondary is led by All-Pro safety Harrison Smith, who consistently ranks amongst the league's best safeties in coverage. Smith has not disappointed in 2019, turning in back-to-back strong performances; he has already matched his entire 2018 tally in pass-breakups through just two games. Alongside Harrison Smith, Anthony Harris has quickly become one of the league's most impressive young safeties. Harris, a former-undrafted free agent, has already intercepted opposing quarterbacks twice in the teams first two games, tied for the league lead. Minnesota's defensive line also sports an impressive duo of its own: Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Both Hunter and Griffen have already registered 15 quarterback-pressures each. Minnesota's strengths along the defensive-front and in the secondary make their defense one of the league's most-impressive all-around units, especially against the pass.

Vikings Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Minnesota opened the season against the Atlanta Falcons in a way nobody could have possibly expected: by throwing the ball just 10 times, compared to 38 rushing attempts. While the game script did not allow for such a run-heavy approach in week two against the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings still ran the ball early and often. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski was promoted to call the plays for Minnesota with explicit instructions: call a successful offense predicated around running the football often and running the football well. Since Stefanski took over, running back, Dalvin Cook has averaged over 17 carries-per-game. Cook has eclipsed 20 carries in each of the first two games of the 2019 season. Typically, NFL offenses only run the ball with this level of frequency in victories, as an effort to kill the clock and secure the win. In week two, Dalvin Cook carried the ball 20 times for 154 yards and 1 touchdown in a game the Vikings trailed 21-0 early in the second quarter. Minnesota's dedication to running the football is unmatched in the modern NFL, and they're running behind a formidable offensive line once Pat Elflein returns to the lineup, as he is expected to in week three.

The Oakland Raiders finished the 2018 season with a run defense ranking in the bottom tier of the NFL. Through two games in the 2019 season, the Raiders now rank amongst the toughest run defenses in the league. The Raiders have allowed an impressive 2.8 yards-per-carry through the first two weeks of the 2019 season, the 4th-best mark in the league. 4 different running backs across 2 teams have carried the ball at least 9 times against the Raiders in 2019, and no player has totaled more than 56 rushing yards in a game. This rapid improvement is, in large part, thanks to the addition of middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Burfict signed with the Raiders following a seven-year stint with the Cincinnati Bengals to begin his NFL career. Burfict's presence on the field correlated directly with the Cincinnati's success defending the run for many years, and his addition to the Oakland defense is a definite upgrade at a previously weak position. Another notable upgrade to the Oakland defense has been the improvement of defensive tackle P.J. Hall. Hall, a second-round draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against the run to start his sophomore campaign. In week three, the Raiders will need Hall to make this three straight extraordinary performances as they face off with the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL's most-run-heavy attack. This is still a unit that is a wait-and-see unit, but one that is off to a much better start than what we saw in 2018.

Vikings Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

The Minnesota Vikings threw the ball just 10 times in their season-opening victory over the Atlanta Falcons, but week two was an entirely different story. The Green Bay Packers jumped out to an early 21-0 lead over the Vikings, which forced the team into a pass-heavy approach. Kirk Cousins went 14-of-32 on the day for 230 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field. The Vikings struggled to build any momentum with either of their top-tier wide receivers, Adam Theilen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen finished the game with 5 receptions for 75 yards on 8 targets, while Diggs caught just 1 of his 7 targets for 49 yards on the day. The talent of each wide receiver is undeniable, but the Vikings have not eclipsed 250 passing yards in a game since week 12 of the 2018 season. Minnesota's offensive line has done Kirk Cousins no favors to start the season, either. Opposing defenses have pressured Cousins on 20 out of 53 dropbacks on the season, one of the worst rates in the entire NFL. Pat Elflein missed week two with a knee injury, and his status for week three is once again in question. Dakota Dozier will start for Elflein if he is unable to play against Oakland, and Dozier's numbers to this point in the season have been horrid. Minnesota's goal this season under offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is seemingly to throw the ball as seldom as possible. When the game script calls for a pass-heavy approach, the offensive line must improve and provide Cousins with a clean pocket to throw from for this passing-game to show signs of life.

Oakland's pass defense turned in a poor performance in week one, which was masked by Joe Flacco's inability to capitalize on the Raiders' miscues. In week two, however, the Raiders were not quite as fortunate. The Raiders played host to the Kansas City Chiefs' dynamic offense in week two when Patrick Mahomes and the NFL's most prolific passing attack ever lit them up for nearly 450 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Oakland lost its starting safety Jonathan Abram after week one to a season-ending shoulder injury that required surgery. In his place, the Raiders attempted to rotate Curtis Riley and Erik Harris into the game at safety. Both Riley and Harris were terrorized all day by Kansas City's vertical passing attack, which placed a magnifying glass on a definitive weakness of the Oakland Raiders' defense. In the trenches, unfortunately, the Raiders' defensive linemen were not much better. The Raiders have failed to reach double-digit hurries on the opposing quarterback in either of their first two games in 2019. The inexperience up front has been on full-display through two games, and the only thing that may save them in week three is Minnesota's fondness for running the football. When Minnesota attempts to air it out, the Vikings will likely face little resistance from a reeling Raiders defense.

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)18 (-0.7)18 (+0.1)
1Matt Ryan78334630422224023.623.620.623.6
2Aaron Rodgers7422342092010018.518.514.415.4

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs DEN5822262591022017.217.214.614.6
2vs KC65233819812218013.713.711.711.7
3PROJ-Dodds21342231.21.1250.1161616.0 (H=36)16.0 (H=49)
3PROJ-Tremblay21342321.11.1240.115.915.915.9 (H=35)15.9 (H=49)
3PROJ-Bloom18331580.81.3280. (H=19)11.2 (H=26)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.2)21 (+1.5)18 (+0.5)22 (+2.1)
1Ito Smith39631011904.
1Devonta Freeman398190431203.
2Aaron Jones432311616434021.
2Jamaal Williams3592804313110.113.111.613.1

Josh Jacobs (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5300)

1vs DEN432385211.028023.324.323.824.3
2vs KC301299000.0009.
3PROJ-Dodds19730.40.96010.311.210.8 (H=18)11.2 (H=24)
3PROJ-Tremblay18720.40.4309.910.310.1 (H=16)10.3 (H=21)
3PROJ-Bloom14450.31.0807.18.17.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=14)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs DEN528000.0000.
2vs KC1539022.02603.
3PROJ-Dodds390.11.0602.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay390.10.9602.132.6 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom2600.0000.60.60.6 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs DEN913000.0000.
2vs KC2023032.0200.
3PROJ-Dodds1501.81101.63.42.5 (H=1)3.4 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay2601.31001.62.92.2 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom1202.01001.23.22.2 (H=1)3.2 (H=4)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.8)26 (+7.2)24 (+4.1)26 (+6.7)
1Calvin Ridley616464100012.416.414.416.4
1Julio Jones531163110009.
2Davante Adams7197106000010.617.614.120.6
2Geronimo Allison34542510008.512.58.511.5

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs DEN5576.0105100016.522.519.525.5
2vs KC6175.046100010.615.613.115.6
3PROJ-Dodds4.7600.30007.812.510.2 (H=18)12.5 (H=28)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.8630.30008.112.910.5 (H=18)12.9 (H=29)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0420.40006.610.68.6 (H=13)10.6 (H=21)

Hunter Renfrow (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs DEN1632.01300001.
2vs KC4984.0300000375.07.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.3360.20004.88.16.5 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.6460.20005.89.47.6 (H=13)9.4 (H=26)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0280.10003.47.45.4 (H=7)7.4 (H=17)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs DEN4143.01600001.
2vs KC4951.0-20000-
3PROJ-Dodds2.4240.20003.664.8 (H=6)6.0 (H=14)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.2340.20004.67.86.2 (H=10)7.8 (H=23)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-3.0)12T (-3.3)11 (-3.2)11T (-3.6)
1Austin Hooper62997707.716.712.216.7
2Robert Tonyan2200000.

Darren Waller (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs DEN5887.070071410.514.0
2vs KC6276.06306.312.39.312.3
3PROJ-Dodds5.2550.37.312.59.9 (H=17)12.5 (H=38)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.7460.36.411.18.8 (H=14)11.1 (H=31)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0620.381411.0 (H=21)14.0 (H=47)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs DEN000.000000.00.0
2vs KC953.03303.
3PROJ-Dodds1.3130. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=7)

Foster Moreau (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs DEN3222.0200243.04.0
2vs KC1500.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.8800.81.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=1)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-4.8)3T (-4.8)3T (-5.5) (+0.0)
1Matt Bryant0000000.00.0
2Mason Crosby0033333.03.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs DEN1133666.06.0
2vs KC1111444.04.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.8)13T (-0.8)9T (-1.8)9T (-1.8)
1Atlanta Falcons2826910000110.00.0
2Green Bay Packers16421122009910.010.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs DEN16.0034430000334.04.0
2vs KC28.0046420100443.03.0
3PROJ-Dodds25.4037220.80.600. (H=16)6.7 (H=19)
3PROJ-Tremblay25.5035520.80.600.4777.0 (H=17)7.0 (H=21)

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+6.7)25 (+6.7)25 (+5.1)24 (+5.8)
1Joe Flacco6421312681011017.517.514.814.8
2Patrick Mahomes763044443401-1038.138.131.635.6

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs ATL53810981064115.315.314.314.3
2@ GB65143223012217015.215.210.911.9
3PROJ-Dodds20292271.50.73100.118.318.318.3 (H=42)18.3 (H=60)
3PROJ-Tremblay20302281.50.84100. (H=42)18.2 (H=59)
3PROJ-Bloom13191741.50.53100.216.416.416.4 (H=35)16.4 (H=49)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.6)5 (-7.2)5 (-7.2)6 (-7.6)
1Phillip Lindsay3411430642306.610.68.610.6
1Royce Freeman301056011506.
2Damien Williams39980534805.
2LeSean McCoy311123033002.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7800)

1vs ATL3621111222.090242625.029.0
2@ GB4720154133.037025.128.126.631.1
3PROJ-Dodds20980.83.6270.117.921.519.7 (H=42)21.5 (H=52)
3PROJ-Tremblay18870.72.9240.115.918.817.3 (H=33)18.8 (H=41)
3PROJ-Bloom221100.82.0170. (H=39)20.1 (H=46)

Alexander Mattison (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs ATL12949000.0004.
2@ GB8425000.0002.
3PROJ-Dodds7280.20.000444.0 (H=4)4.0 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay6250.20.0003.73.73.7 (H=3)3.7 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom10460.20.0005.85.85.8 (H=8)5.8 (H=11)

C.J. Ham (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL2200000.000000.00.0
2@ GB2500030.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay0001.71401.43.12.2 (H=1)3.1 (H=4)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+12.4)29 (+14.8)29T (+13.7)29 (+16.3)
1Emmanuel Sanders577586100014.619.617.119.6
1Courtland Sutton5787120000012.019.015.522.0
2Demarcus Robinson6966172200029.
2Mecole Hardman566461100012.

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6700)

1vs ATL4733.043100010.313.311.813.3
2@ GB6485.07500007.512.510.012.5
3PROJ-Dodds5.2730.500010.315.512.9 (H=23)15.5 (H=34)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.6730.500010.315.913.1 (H=24)15.9 (H=35)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0640.50009.413.411.4 (H=19)13.4 (H=26)

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $6000)

1vs ATL3222.03700003.
2@ GB5871.049100010.911.99.410.9
3PROJ-Dodds4.5580.50008.813.311.0 (H=18)13.3 (H=29)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.4510.40007.511.99.7 (H=15)11.9 (H=24)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0590.60009.512.511.0 (H=18)12.5 (H=26)

Chad Beebe (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs ATL1411.0900000.
2@ GB1621.06100006.
3PROJ-Dodds1.5190.10002.543.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.3180.10002.43.73.2 (H=3)3.8 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1.01300001.32.31.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.7)22 (+2.4)24 (+2.5)25 (+3.6)
1Noah Fant52422902.
2Travis Kelce6597107116.723.720.226.7

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs ATL5310.000000.00.0
2@ GB6553.0900.
3PROJ-Dodds2.9310. (H=10)7.8 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.3360. (H=12)8.7 (H=24)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0130. (H=3)4.5 (H=7)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs ATL2600.000000.00.0
2@ GB2721.0-10-
3PROJ-Dodds0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.7)18T (+0.7)16T (-0.0) (+0.0)
1Brandon McManus3411101010.010.0
2Harrison Butker0044444.04.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs ATL0044444.04.0
2@ GB1212444.04.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.3)7T (-2.3)14T (-1.3)14T (-1.3)
1Denver Broncos2435700000000.00.0
2Kansas City Chiefs10307320007711.011.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs ATL12.0034542100101014.014.0
2@ GB21.0033520200666.06.0
3PROJ-Dodds17.303252.50.90.900.511.111.111.1 (H=30)11.1 (H=39)
3PROJ-Tremblay17.503242. (H=32)11.5 (H=41)