Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 21, Jaguars 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense30.0 (+8.2) (6)123 (+14) (11)168 (-81) (27)
Jaguars Defense26.5 (+4.7) (26)120 (+10) (17)258 (+8) (19)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense19.0 (-2.8) (20)92 (-16) (21)262 (+13) (17)
Titans Defense16.0 (-5.8) (6)134 (+25) (26)182 (-66) (2)

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The one thing working relatively well for the Titans offense was their ground game last week, with Derrick Henry rushing for 81 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts. He did fumble once on the goal line, but Henry’s job is secure as Dion Lewis is the clear secondary back, seeing just three carries in back-to-back games now. With the offensive line blocking well, Henry managed to break off a number of chunk plays last week. All but one of his runs went to the right side as he gained just two of his 81 rushing yards from runs on the left side. With left tackle Taylor Lewan still serving a suspension, this may be a sign of what is to come for the next two games until Lewan is back. Marcus Mariota also added 32 yards on the ground, including a 15-yard scamper as his long run of the day. Mariota was subjecting himself to a number of hits throughout the game though, shedding further doubt on his ability to stay healthy.

The Jaguars defense as a whole looked much improved from their Week 1 blasting by the Chiefs. Their defensive line can still stand to improve as a unit, however. They have allowed over 120 rushing yards to running backs in back to back weeks, allowing Carlos Hyde to rush for 90 yards on 20 carries in last week’s contest. Calais Campbell looks the part and is doing exactly what he is paid to do, anchoring this defensive line. Abry Jones, however, has had a poor start to the season as the Jaguars will be looking forward to re-integrating Marcell Dareus to their defensive interior. Dareus made his season debut last week and looked great against the run on limited snaps. Play from the Jaguars linebackers remains a big question mark though, as Myles Jack and Quincy Williams have both continued to disappoint in run defense. While the Titans offensive line appears beatable on paper right now, Derrick Henry continues to run well and should pose a challenge for this Jaguars front seven.

Titans Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The low volume Titans passing offense had another unremarkable performance in Week 2 as Marcus Mariota passed for just 154 yards and one touchdown, with that one touchdown going to an offensive line. This offense wants to focus on the run, and they appear to be sticking to that offensive philosophy. Mariota has rarely pushed the ball downfield in these first two games beyond a deep shot to A.J. Brown in Week 1. Last week, he didn’t complete a pass of more than 26 yards. Mariota did suffer a quadriceps injury in last week’s game that kept him from practice Monday, but he will reportedly be good to play coming off the short week on Thursday. The main target to trust with some level of confidence is tight end Delanie Walker, who has led the team in targets and receptions in both games. Corey Davis is receiving hardly any attention from Mariota, while rookie A.J. Brown has actually overshadowed Davis through these first two games. The ceiling for Mariota and all Titans receivers will continue to be set quite low.

The Jaguars defense did a great job against the Texans last week as they held Deshaun Watson to just 159 passing yards with no touchdowns. The pass rush played a big part in their success as the Jaguars notched eight hits and four sacks on Watson with pressure coming from all over, including 2.5 sacks from defensive backs. The secondary played better in this one, notably Jalen Ramsey as he held DeAndre Hopkins in check with just five receptions for 40 yards. Ramsey, however, is on terrible terms with the team as he has publicly requested a trade. He may not be on this roster come Thursday, so keep a close eye on that situation. Cornerback A.J. Bouye was sidelined with an injury last week, so his status will be worth monitoring for the early-week game. Tre Herndon was a liability in Bouye’s absence, so he would make for a plus matchup for A.J. Brown and Tajae Sharpe. D.J. Hayden has been impressive in slot coverage, making for a tough matchup for Adam Humphries. Delanie Walker could find space in coverage against the likes of safety Ronnie Harrison and the Jaguars linebackers. They allowed Travis Kelce to go for 88 yards in Week 1, so a mismatch against one of these struggling linebackers could pay dividends for Walker.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Jaguars ground game ran into quite a few eight-man boxes last week as the Texans focused their defensive plan on stopping Leonard Fournette in favor of challenging rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew to beat them. Fournette subsequently had a tough day, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry for 47 rushing yards. He has started slow this season based on these first two games, appearing to lack both power and decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. However, in his defense, the Jaguars have also been playing without top offensive lineman Cam Robinson. Robinson has been practicing on a limited basis and should be ready to suit up any day now, but keep an eye on his status with a short week ahead. With Robinson back in the fold, this should be an above-average offensive line. It is also worth mentioning the rushing upside displayed by quarterback Gardner Minshew last week. While most of his 56 rushing yards came on the final drive, Minshew displayed some speed and quickness that will give defenses something to think about when scheming for this offense.

The Titans run defense looked great in Week 2, with the exception of a big play (55-yard run) afforded to Jordan Wilkins late in the game. They held Marlon Mack to just 2.6 yards per attempt and did a good job keeping the Colts out of the end zone. Daquan Jones has come on strong at nose tackle through the first two weeks, consistently winning his matchups to clog up the interior. Jurrell Casey also made a number of good plays last week after a rough outing in Week 1. Titans linebackers played better last week, particularly Jayon Brown as he led the team in tackles and made some nice contributions against the run. This is a well-coached Titans defense with enough talent on the defensive line to have a clear advantage over what has been an underwhelming Jaguars rushing offense. It would help the Jaguars if Cam Robinson suits up, but without Robinson, the Titans should make it tough on Fournette and company.

Jaguars Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Gardner Minshew held his own through his second NFL game, completing 70 percent of his passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. He played very poorly through the first half of last week’s game, but he improved during the second half to bring the Jaguars within a few feet of a victory. He still has plenty of room for improvement, though, as Minshew held on to the ball far too long while making a few terrible throws that could have otherwise been big plays. D.J. Chark was his favorite target this week and hauled in the only touchdown of the game for Jacksonville. Chark has started hot this season with 11 receptions for 201 yards and two touchdowns, but he was listed on the injury report with an ankle issue. While he is tentatively expected to play on Thursday, keep an eye on his status leading into game time. Both Chris Conley was also on that injury report and could be at risk of sitting Thursday, but as of now, he is expected to play. Conley has had a solid start with Minshew under center with 12 target netting out to 10 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown. Dede Westbrook, on the other hand, hasn’t had a great connection with Minshew to start. He managed to catch just one-of-five targets for three yards last week--this coming after amassing just 30 yards with a touchdown in Week 1. Leonard Fournette has seen a consistent workload through the air though, seeing six targets in each game while hauling in a total of eight receptions for 68 yards to start this season.

The Titans defense had another strong showing against the Colts last week as this secondary continues to impress with their playmaking abilities. The Titans have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (182.5) and have forced a league-leading (tied) five turnovers, four of which are interceptions. Logan Ryan has two of those interceptions while also ranking tied for fourth in the league with four passes defended and notching 1.5 sacks to bolster his early-season resume. He has looked like the best cornerback for the Titans and will give slot receiver Dede Westbrook a hard time this week. The other Jaguars wide receivers will also be in for challenges against this Titans secondary, particularly given the strong support coming from these safeties. The Titans pass rush has also been above average with strong showings from the veteran defensive end Cameron Wake and linebacker Jayon Brown. The Jaguars offensive line will have its work cut out for them to defend Gardner Minshew while trying to find open receivers against what should be tight coverage from the Titans secondary.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.7)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.9)23 (+2.1)
1Patrick Mahomes5925333783012031.131.127.330.3
2Deshaun Watson6616291590045114.514.512.912.9

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ CLE59142424830324026.826.824.324.3
2vs IND60192815410532014.914.913.413.4
3PROJ-Dodds18291931.20.85250.217.417.417.4 (H=41)17.4 (H=54)
3PROJ-Tremblay17271861.10.86290.2171717.0 (H=39)17.0 (H=52)
3PROJ-Bloom162915610.63200.113.813.813.8 (H=27)13.8 (H=36)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.1)16 (-0.7)13 (-0.2)13 (-1.1)
1Damien Williams45132616639012.518.515.518.5
1LeSean McCoy2010810111209.310.39.810.3
2Carlos Hyde402090000009.
2Duke Johnson26631010003.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6200)

1@ CLE361984121.075127.928.928.428.9
2vs IND301581132.012015.317.316.317.3
3PROJ-Dodds19820.71.8130.114.316.115.2 (H=30)16.1 (H=39)
3PROJ-Tremblay19800.62.1140.113.615.714.7 (H=28)15.7 (H=38)
3PROJ-Bloom19780. (H=27)14.9 (H=34)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CLE2637043.0601.
2vs IND3039011.0501.
3PROJ-Dodds4140.12.0130. (H=6)5.9 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay3130.12.2150.146.25.1 (H=6)6.2 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom3802.0601.43.42.4 (H=1)3.4 (H=4)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)18 (+1.0)18T (+1.4)18 (+1.0)
1Sammy Watkins65119198300037.846.842.349.8
1Tyreek Hill12221601502.
2DeAndre Hopkins62854000004.
2Will Fuller60744000004.

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ CLE4530.000000000.00.0
2vs IND5053.03800003.
3PROJ-Dodds3.0400.20005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=18)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.5350.20004.77.26.0 (H=8)7.2 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0430.30006.19.17.6 (H=12)9.1 (H=21)

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CLE2643.01000000101311.516.0
2vs IND2753.02500002.
3PROJ-Dodds3.0390.20005.18.16.6 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.8370.20004.97.76.3 (H=9)7.7 (H=18)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0410.20005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=21)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ CLE2211.0500000.
2vs IND3422.0-10110021.02.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.5160.11302.543.3 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.1120.11302.13.22.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom2.080.10001.43.42.5 (H=2)3.5 (H=4)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ CLE3020.000000000.00.0
2vs IND3222.02400002.
3PROJ-Dodds1.1130.10001.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.3160.10002.23.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1.01200001.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.4)16 (-1.7)16 (-1.1)16 (-2.0)
1Travis Kelce50838808.811.810.311.8
2Jordan Akins39322502.

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ CLE2965.055217.522.520.022.5
2vs IND3464.03903.
3PROJ-Dodds4.3440. (H=13)10.5 (H=24)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.3460.36.410.78.6 (H=14)10.7 (H=25)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0390. (H=12)9.7 (H=21)

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ CLE3711.0701.
2vs IND2900.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.8600.61.41.0 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31T (+5.2)31T (+5.2)28T (+5.0) (+0.0)
1Harrison Butker4444161617.017.0
2Kaimi Fairbairn2211777.07.0

Cairo Santos (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CLE2255111113.013.0
2vs IND1222556.06.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.3)18T (-0.3)19T (+0.7)19T (+0.7)
1Kansas City Chiefs2642811100555.05.0
2Houston Texans12281401006610.010.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ CLE13.0034653001171723.023.0
2vs IND19.0028831100778.08.0
3PROJ-Dodds19.003242. (H=23)9.9 (H=32)
3PROJ-Tremblay19.003262.110.800.510.210.210.2 (H=24)10.2 (H=33)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.1)11 (-3.1)11 (-3.3)10 (-4.0)
1Baker Mayfield7325382851300015.315.312.412.4
2Jacoby Brissett72172814631725020.820.817.318.3

Gardner Minshew (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs KC4722252752116021.421.418.618.6
2@ HOU67233321310656020.320.316.117.1
3PROJ-Dodds21332211.214170. (H=43)17.2 (H=56)
3PROJ-Tremblay20322211.215190.2181818.0 (H=46)18.0 (H=60)
3PROJ-Bloom23372021.21.34210.116.316.316.3 (H=39)16.3 (H=51)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.2)18 (+0.0)15 (+0.3)15 (-0.4)
1Nick Chubb5117750431008.511.510.011.5
1Dontrell Hilliard13141211407.
2Jordan Wilkins11582011408.
2Marlon Mack4920510321206.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6000)

1vs KC501366064.02809.413.49.412.4
2@ HOU651547064.04008.712.710.712.7
3PROJ-Dodds19730.54.1300.113.91816.0 (H=36)18.0 (H=49)
3PROJ-Tremblay20780.54.2320.114.618.816.7 (H=39)18.8 (H=53)
3PROJ-Bloom15560.34.0310.211.715.713.7 (H=28)15.7 (H=39)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs KC817010.0000.
2@ HOU000000.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds2600.64011.61.3 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay1300.3300.60.90.8 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom1300.0000.30.30.3 (H=0)0.3 (H=0)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-4.1)10 (-5.7)10 (-4.8)10 (-7.2)
1Jarvis Landry737467011007.711.79.711.7
1Odell Beckham731177100007.114.110.614.1
2T.Y. Hilton656443100010.314.312.314.3
2Parris Campbell18111210007.

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs KC4144.0146100020.624.622.627.6
2@ HOU5597.055100011.518.515.018.5
3PROJ-Dodds4.0520.20006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=24)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.2470.20005.99.17.5 (H=11)9.1 (H=19)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0510.40007.512.510.0 (H=18)12.5 (H=33)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs KC4476.097100015.721.718.721.7
2@ HOU5754.07300007.311.39.311.3
3PROJ-Dodds3.7420.20005.49.17.3 (H=11)9.1 (H=21)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.9350.20004.77.66.2 (H=8)7.6 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0550.30007.311.39.3 (H=17)11.3 (H=31)

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $5400)

1vs KC4865.03011209.214.211.714.2
2@ HOU5851.0300000.
3PROJ-Dodds3.5380.21305.38.87.1 (H=11)8.9 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.8340.214057.86.5 (H=9)7.9 (H=13)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0210.20003.36.34.9 (H=6)6.4 (H=9)

Marqise Lee (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs KC1200.000000000.00.0
2@ HOU000.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=4)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.3)23 (+3.0)27 (+3.1)22 (+2.7)
1David Njoku66643719.713.711.713.7
2Eric Ebron34432518.511.510.011.5

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs KC3854.03203.
2@ HOU4444.02802.
3PROJ-Dodds2.7260. (H=7)6.5 (H=17)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.7260. (H=7)6.5 (H=17)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0290. (H=8)7.5 (H=22)

Geoff Swaim (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

1vs KC2944.01701.
2@ HOU3543.01401.
3PROJ-Dodds2.3200. (H=5)5.5 (H=13)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.6250. (H=7)6.3 (H=17)
3PROJ-Bloom3.01501.54.53.0 (H=2)4.5 (H=9)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-5.3)1T (-5.3)1T (-6.0) (+0.0)
1Austin Seibert0012111.01.0
2Adam Vinatieri0013111.01.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs KC2222888.08.0
2@ HOU2200667.07.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.8)13T (-0.8)6 (-4.3)6 (-4.3)
1Cleveland Browns4333940010660.00.0
2Indianapolis Colts1724240000445.05.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs KC40.004910000000-4.0-4.0
2@ HOU13.0026340000448.08.0
3PROJ-Dodds20.503222. (H=18)8.9 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay20.503101.70.80.700. (H=18)8.9 (H=30)