Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 14, Patriots 33

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense9.5 (-12.3) (31)80 (-28) (25)162 (-86) (29)
Patriots Defense1.5 (-20.3) (1)37 (-71) (2)209 (-39) (9)

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense38.0 (+16.2) (2)112 (+3) (13)310 (+61) (5)
Jets Defense20.0 (-1.8) (14)99 (-9) (11)274 (+24) (23)

Jets Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Le’Veon Bell as a running back has yet to have the success that he has had in his time in Pittsburgh as he is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and so far this season is struggling to get the timing with his new offensive line. Matt Bitonti has this unit as a bottom-five offensive line and they were torched by the Browns who were often in the backfield before the Jets had a chance to move the ball. Bell had just 3.2 yards per carry with his longest run being just 8 yards. The Browns were able to stack the box with the ineffective passing offense of the Jets.

The Patriots defense might be one of the best that we have seen in a long time. Through two games, they have allowed just three points and are loaded with talent across the board. So far this year, the Patriots have allowed just 37 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. Adam Butler and Danny Shelton are both doing a tremendous job in eating space which has been freeing up linebackers D'onta Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and Jamie Collins to clean up the tackles in space and if a run even starts to approach the third level it is quickly cleaned up by Patrick Chung who is one of the best run-stopping safeties in the league. This is a defense that top to bottom is immensely talented and one that will be difficult to run against all year.

Jets Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Jets passing game has taken a turn for the worst as we saw on Monday. Sam Darnold is out with mono, Trevor Siemian who was ineffective prior to his injury is out for the season with an ankle injury and the team has signed David Fales off the street to backup Luke Falk who primarily played the role of game manager just checking the ball down to Le’Veon Bell who caught 10 passes in this game. For Falk’s first time ever being active for an NFL game, he was not terrible, and actually played better than Siemian did for most of the game. This will be an offense that will go through Bell in the passing game and taking an occasional shot play to Robbie Anderson.

The Patriots pass defense is one of the more dominant units in the NFL. Led by the best cornerback in football in Stephon Gilmore, and Jason McCourty who has been tremendous since he came to New England to play alongside his brother Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon at the safeties. This is a unit that is second in sacks, eighth in passing yards allowed, and have only allowed three total points as most of their passing yards have come in the second half while the game was out of hand. This is a unit that is built to be an elite pass defending unit and thus far have shut-down Ben Roethlisberger and the abysmal Dolphins. The Jets will have their handful in this game in what might be the best defense in football.

Patriots Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Patriots rotated three backs once again against the Dolphins as Sony Michel saw 49% of the snaps with James White at 31% and Rex Burkhead at 24%. After a slow start from Sony Michel who had just 14 yards in week 1, he did look much improved against the Dolphins weak rushing defense. Michel carried the ball 21 times for 83 yards and did find the end-zone for the first time this season in the 43-0 lopsided win. If there is one area of concern for the Patriots it is on the offensive line as they lost center David Andrews to a blood clot issue, right tackle Marcus Cannon is dealing with a shoulder injury although he may return this week, and left tackle Isaiah Wynn went to IR this past week which leaves the team incredibly thin up front.

Outside of Devin Singletary’s 70 yards on just four carries in Week 1, the Jets run defense has been one that has been solid so far this season. The team shut down Frank Gore holding him to just 1.8 yards-per-carry and this past week shut-down Nick Chubb holding him to just 3.4 yards-per-carry even without star linebacker C.J. Mosely. The defensive line led by Leonard Williams and run-stopping defensive tackle Steve McLendon caused havoc for the Browns this past week. The Jets may once again be without Mosley as he missed practice on Wednesday and if he is unable to play would be a significant loss. The Jets at the safety position have two of the best run-stoppers in the business in Marcus Maye and Jamal Adams who have both been tremendous so far this year. If Mosley is able to play, this becomes one of the best run-stopping units in football and is even more exemplified by how poor the corners are on this defense.

Patriots Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Patriots so far this season have dominated teams through the air as this is one of the best wide receiver groups that Tom Brady has had in his tenure in New England. The Patriots came out and made it a point to get the ball to Antonio Brown this past week as Brady’s first three completions all went to Brown. Brown played just 33% of the plays as he continues to learn the offense after being released by Oakland. This is a unit that will continue to exploit the matchups of the opponents and has weapons across the offense in Brown, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and James White who we have yet to see get going so far this season.

The Jets secondary has played well in both games so far this season and then have fallen apart in the second half of games. The Jets held the Bills scoreless in Week 1 and held Baker Mayfield to just 47% completion percentage in the first half of the Monday Night game. The Jets strength is the ability Gregg Williams has to confuse defenses and the quality of their safeties in Marcus Maye and Jamal Adams. The Jets weakness is their corner positions as they benched Trumaine Johnson who is their highest-paid corner for Nate Hairston and it did not improve things as Hairston struggled alongside Darryl Roberts. Brian Poole was burned badly by Odell Beckham on an 89-yard touchdown pass. Gregg Williams was able to cover up for his poor cornerback play against two inexperienced quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield for a half, but don’t expect Tom Brady to be fooled by anything Williams throws at him. Expect a long day for the Jets in this one.

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-11.4)1 (-11.4)1 (-10.8)1 (-12.0)
1Ben Roethlisberger6927472760117013.513.510.710.7
2Josh Rosen2471897010003.

Luke Falk (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4600)

2vs CLE482025198000009.
3PROJ-Dodds21362140.91.113013.513.513.5 (H=30)13.5 (H=39)
3PROJ-Tremblay22362360.71.202013.613.613.6 (H=30)13.6 (H=39)
3PROJ-Bloom19351440.71.22309.19.19.1 (H=15)9.1 (H=19)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-10.0)3 (-9.2)3 (-9.4)3 (-9.6)
1James Conner3210210444406.510.58.510.5
1Jaylen Samuels2324021200.
2Kenyan Drake346190652904.
2Mark Walton103150211202.

LeVeon Bell (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7000)

1vs BUF721760096.032115.
2vs CLE61216801010.061012.922.915.921.9
3PROJ-Dodds17700.36.2450.214.520.717.6 (H=37)20.7 (H=54)
3PROJ-Tremblay18770.27.0490.114.421.417.9 (H=38)21.4 (H=57)
3PROJ-Bloom14430.36.0310.210.416.413.4 (H=23)16.4 (H=36)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs BUF524000.0000.
2vs CLE24325033.0150475.57.0
3PROJ-Dodds31401.3802.23.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay21001.1801.82.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom3110.12.01002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=6)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-10.4)5 (-9.5)4 (-9.8)5 (-11.0)
1JuJu Smith-Schuster62867800007.813.810.813.8
1James Washington36625100005.
2Preston Williams42646300006.310.38.310.3
2Jakeem Grant38732201-401.

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4800)

1vs BUF6973.02300002.
2vs CLE6764.08100008.
3PROJ-Dodds4.1570.20006.9119.0 (H=15)11.0 (H=26)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.5660.20007.812.310.1 (H=19)12.3 (H=32)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0530.20006.510.58.5 (H=14)10.5 (H=24)

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4800)

1vs BUF651714.099014010.324.317.324.3
2vs CLE6764.0400000486.08.0
3PROJ-Dodds5.1530.21306.811.99.4 (H=15)11.9 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.3600.20307.512.810.2 (H=18)12.8 (H=34)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0420.20005.411.48.4 (H=12)11.4 (H=28)

Josh Bellamy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs BUF611.01500001.
2vs CLE4521.0500000.
3PROJ-Dodds1.3170.10002.33.63.0 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.8220.10002.84.63.7 (H=4)4.6 (H=8)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
2vs CLE721.0-10000-
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.11400001.42.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.8)7 (-5.1)8 (-4.0)7 (-5.4)
1Vance McDonald49424004.
2Durham Smythe25112402.

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs BUF6843.0100142.54.0
2vs CLE6110.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.7180. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.5180. (H=3)3.9 (H=8)
3PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-4.8)3T (-4.8)3T (-5.5) (+0.0)
1Chris Boswell1100333.03.0
2Jason Sanders0000000.00.0

Sam Ficken (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

2vs CLE1100334.04.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.3)5 (-3.3)5 (-5.3)5 (-5.3)
1Pittsburgh Steelers3346510000110.00.0
2Miami Dolphins4338120100443.03.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2100)

1vs BUF17.0037012201151518.018.0
2vs CLE23.0037531000555.05.0
3PROJ-Dodds33.904122.10.80.400. (H=7)3.9 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay33.253882.310.500. (H=12)5.5 (H=18)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.8)20 (+0.8)15 (-1.2)19 (+0.1)
1Josh Allen692437254121038124.524.518.020.0
2Baker Mayfield6919353251100019.319.316.019.0

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs PIT7024363413000029.129.125.628.6
2@ MIA7220282642021127.327.324.724.7
3PROJ-Dodds23342762.30.8120.1232323.0 (H=58)23.0 (H=69)
3PROJ-Tremblay22352552.21120.121.421.421.4 (H=51)21.4 (H=61)
3PROJ-Bloom22302652.60.5110.123.823.823.8 (H=62)23.8 (H=73)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.2)20 (+0.7)14 (-0.1)18 (+0.3)
1Devin Singletary484700652809.814.812.314.8
1Frank Gore191120000002.
2Nick Chubb42186214436015.819.817.819.8
2DErnest Johnson27380434205.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6000)

1vs PIT231514000.0001.
2@ MIA352185100.00014.514.512.513.5
3PROJ-Dodds17780.90.63013.514.113.8 (H=27)14.1 (H=32)
3PROJ-Tremblay18740.70.00011.611.611.6 (H=20)11.6 (H=23)
3PROJ-Bloom187310.00013.313.313.3 (H=26)13.3 (H=29)

James White (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs PIT33426075.05608.213.210.713.2
2@ MIA22310043.01918.911.910.411.9
3PROJ-Dodds4170.24.3360.38.312.610.5 (H=18)12.6 (H=31)
3PROJ-Tremblay3150.24.3350.27.411.79.6 (H=16)11.7 (H=27)
3PROJ-Bloom3120.14.0350.58.312.310.3 (H=18)12.3 (H=30)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs PIT32844085.04108.513.511.013.5
2@ MIA17521022.04706.
3PROJ-Dodds6260.13.1240. (H=15)9.3 (H=24)
3PROJ-Tremblay6270.23.9330.28.412.310.4 (H=25)12.3 (H=39)
3PROJ-Bloom7310.23.0310.18119.5 (H=21)11.0 (H=32)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.6)19 (+2.0)22 (+2.4)20 (+3.5)
1John Brown59107123100018.325.321.828.3
1Cole Beasley48954000004.
2Odell Beckham63106161100022.
2Damion Ratley42325000005.

Antonio Brown (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7100)

1vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
2@ MIA2484.056115012.
3PROJ-Dodds4.6600.60009.614.211.9 (H=18)14.2 (H=27)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.2560.703010.114.312.2 (H=19)14.3 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0640.800011.216.213.7 (H=24)16.2 (H=35)

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs PIT67116.083018010.716.713.416.4
2@ MIA6644.05101105.
3PROJ-Dodds4.2540.41608.412.610.5 (H=17)12.6 (H=25)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.8470.41607.711.59.6 (H=14)11.5 (H=21)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0540.51508.912.910.9 (H=18)12.9 (H=26)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5400)

1vs PIT4743.073100013.316.314.816.3
2@ MIA5752.01900001.
3PROJ-Dodds2.9480.40007.210.18.7 (H=14)10.1 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.6430.30006.18.77.4 (H=10)8.7 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0460.40007108.5 (H=13)10.0 (H=19)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs PIT6144.095200021.525.523.525.5
2@ MIA3533.03900003.
3PROJ-Dodds2.1290.30004.76.85.8 (H=8)6.8 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2260.20003.864.9 (H=6)6.0 (H=13)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0350.30005.38.36.8 (H=11)8.3 (H=22)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.9)3 (-7.7)3 (-6.3)3 (-7.9)
1Tommy Sweeney23223503.
2Demetrius Harris5411400.

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs PIT000.000000.00.0
2@ MIA4222.03303.
3PROJ-Dodds1.1140.123.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.780. (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ryan Izzo (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs PIT4521.0300.
2@ MIA3100.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.9700.71.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.770.11.321.7 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.7)22T (+1.7)23T (+2.5) (+0.0)
1Steve Hauschka1122556.06.0
2Austin Seibert3322111113.013.0

Stephen Gostkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs PIT4433151516.016.0
2@ MIA1246777.07.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+1.2)24T (+1.2)29 (+4.7)29 (+4.7)
1Buffalo Bills16223401108810.010.0
2Cleveland Browns3262401006613.013.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs PIT3.00308110003310.010.0
2@ MIA0.0018474002272737.037.0
3PROJ-Dodds11.803122. (H=39)14.1 (H=51)
3PROJ-Tremblay10.253292. (H=60)18.1 (H=79)