Matchup Analysis: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Giants 21, Buccaneers 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Giants Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Giants Offense15.5 (-6.3) (26)140 (+31) (8)280 (+31) (11)
Buccaneers Defense22.5 (+0.7) (18)68 (-40) (6)236 (-13) (15)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense18.5 (-3.3) (21)110 (+1) (15)182 (-67) (25)
Giants Defense31.5 (+9.7) (30)120 (+11) (18)321 (+72) (30)

Giants Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

The Giants recognize that, for the foreseeable future, Saquon Barkley is the offense’s engine. As a result, they’ve built an attack and a front line around his skill set, and the results thus far have been strong. Barkley has accumulated 227 ground yards and 1 touchdown over the first 2 games, needing just 28 attempts to do so against a pair of solid run defenses. Of course, Barkley’s explosive talent has been the catalyst, as his speed and cutback ability are already the stuff of legend. He’s fast enough to reroute bad runs into good ones, and just powerful enough to run right through arm tackles. Up front, the team has assembled a workable run-blocking line, and one with promise. The tackles have underachieved, but guards Kevin Zeitler and young T.J. Hernandez make for a solid interior duo. Most of the blockers - including the tight ends and receivers - are quick and mobile enough to move into space and seal off lanes for Barkley. As a result, Barkley’s week-to-week outlook is strong, with a solid floor to go with his dazzling ceiling. He’s so dynamic from touch to touch that not even matchup or game script can truly threaten that upside.

Last year’s Buccaneers were among the dregs of the NFL in run defense, giving up 4.7 yards per rush and 19 ground touchdowns. But the team has prioritized this unit in 2019, and the early returns have been excellent. Thanks to a stout line and more consistent linebacker play, they’ve thoroughly shut down both Matt Breida (15 carries for 37 yards) and Christian McCaffrey (16 for 37). The key cog thus far has been second-year tackle Vita Vea, who has been in All-Pro form through two games. Vea’s size and athleticism next to Ndamukong Suh has cleared lanes for the second-level playmakers to roam and pursue. Rookie linebacker Devin White has been a mixed bag thus far, but his availability should be monitored after suffering a low-grade knee sprain Thursday. Even as he develops, White brings dynamic athleticism and versatility to this group.

Giants Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Mercifully, the Giants opted this week to remove Eli Manning from under center. They’d reached a breaking point: over his last 10 games, Manning had averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt and thrown 16 touchdowns. With a weakened arm and no tools left to beat the pass rush, hesimply lacks any dynamic skills at this point. That’s why the offense is currently made up almost entirely of low-impact slot specialists. Rookie Daniel Jones will take the reins starting this Sunday, and he’s fresh off a fantastic preseason that saw him complete 85% of his throws. He’s big-armed and mobile, offering far more creativity than Manning ever did. Perhaps he’ll catch the NFL napping on him for a few weeks, generating big plays on instinct outside the pocket. Still, he’s a relatively green rookie leading an offense that lacks firepower. Week to week, his best-case scenario is a high-volume day full of check-downs to explosive youngsters Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. When that happens, both become high-level producers capable of winning fantasy weeks. Engram has caught 17 of his 22 targets thus far, while Barkley is capable of turning any short catch into something special. Sterling Shepard, if cleared by the concussion protocol, will provide another reliable set of hands from the slot. But beyond Engram and Barkley, there’s no reason to prioritize this passing game in any fantasy format.

The Tampa Bay pass defense remains one of football’s most vulnerable. With little turnover from last year’s bottom-tier group, they’re still allowing more big plays than they should. The outside coverage unit remains shaky at best, and a lack of communication inside leaves tons of run-after-catch room. On Thursday night, Greg Olsen’s two long scampers down the seam served as shining examples of this unit’s shortcomings. Cam Newton totaled 324 yards, even leaving a few misfires on the table. Vernon Hargreaves remains hit-or-miss in coverage, and he gave up a number of plays to D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel last week. He recorded 12 tackles on the night, which is never a good sign for a cornerback. The pass rush has improved, with youngsters Shaquil Barrett and Vita Vea bending the pocket much more than was seen last year. But until they can be trusted to hold coverage, this will continue to be a plus fantasy matchup. Even the Giants’ thinned-out receiving corps enjoys something of an advantage here.

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Giants defense.

The Tampa Bay offensive line keeps proving itself a quality run-blocking unit, from left tackle Donovan Smith all the way across a strong interior. Unfortunately, there may not be enough talent in the backfield to capitalize. Ronald Jones II continues to struggle, popping in and out of the team’s plans as a result. He saw only eight snaps Thursday, and while he carried the ball on four of them, he was completely neutralized by the Panthers (just nine yards). Plodding starter Peyton Barber didn’t fare much better; he recorded a 16-yard touchdown, but his other 22 attempts netted just 66. That’s the extent of this attack, as Dare Ogunbowale isn’t a factor on rushing downs. Coach Bruce Arians has never cared much to fine-tune his running game, so a ho-hum line like this is usually a fair baseline to project for whoever has the “hot” hand in a given week.

The rebuilding Giants are in the midst of a full tear-down, which can definitely be seen in their run defense. Since the middle of last season, this unit has moved on from stalwarts Damon Harrison, Landon Collins, and B.J. Goodson, among others. They’ve found a few keepers along the way, especially up front, where B.J. Hill and Dalvin Tomlinson have formed a strong duo. And new strong safety Jabrill Peppers, acquired in the Odell Beckham trade, has brought over his nose for the ball and deadly closing speed in the box. Still, this group remains very much in transition and lacking a few key components. The second level is the big problem, where linebackers Alec Ogletree and Ryan Connelly are liabilities more often than not. Last week, the Bills’ trio of Frank Gore, Devin Singletary, and quarterback Josh Allen routinely churned out solid gains once they cleared the line. Of their 32 combined rushes, 18 generated 4 yards or more - with 2 more big-gainers nullified by penalties.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Giants defense.

It wouldn’t be out of line to call Jameis Winston’s Week 2 a bounce-back showing. After a horrid opener, Winston looked serviceable against the Panthers, completing 64% of his throws and avoiding turnovers. Week to week, Winston boasts high upside in Arians’ vertical, playmaking attack. He has a wealth of talent at his disposal, led by Mike Evans, who’s opened the year slowly but always presents a mismatch. Thus far, though, Winston’s strongest connection has been with Chris Godwin, who’s already racked up 174 yards and found the end zone in both games. Godwin works primarily out of the slot, which was heavily utilized back when Bruce Arians was coaching the Cardinals. His blend of size and athleticism makes him a great target both on quick-hitters and on fade routes in the end zone. Perhaps the most head-scratching aspect of the Tampa Bay pass game thus far has been O.J. Howard’s disappearing act (32 yards through 2 games). Arians has never been accused of using his tight ends excessively, but he’s also never had one as dynamic down the field as Howard. The youngster will need to trim his mistakes - drops, fumbles, etc. - if he’s going to carve out a meaty role. Cameron Brate, who had two touchdowns called back in Week 1, still looms as a vulture.

Little has changed from the Giants’ poor 2018 in pass defense; if anything, things have gotten noticeably worse. Last Sunday, this unit reached a new low, allowing Buffalo’s Josh Allen his best day as an NFL starter. The biggest problems are at cornerback, where Janoris Jenkins is no longer a shutdown guy and Eli Apple has yet to be adequately replaced. Rookie DeAndre Baker has been a massive liability through his first two games, biting on fakes and losing sight of his man far too often. Antonio Hamilton hasn’t been much better, rounding out one of football’s most beatable trios. Behind them, 35-year-old Antoine Bethea no longer offers much support down the field. With such poor coverage in place and such a ho-hum pass rush up front, this should remain one of fantasy’s tastiest matchups. No. 1 options like Mike Evans need no longer fear Jenkins, and rising talents like Chris Godwin face little resistance from anyone else.

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-7.2)7 (-7.2)5 (-6.8)7 (-6.0)
1Jimmy Garoppolo681827166112-2011.111.111.411.4
2Cam Newton7925513330020016.716.711.315.3

Daniel Jones (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ DAL53417001501.41.4-0.80.2
2vs BUF000000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds23362361.31.229016.716.716.7 (H=43)16.7 (H=52)
3PROJ-Tremblay22352451.31.1280.117.717.717.7 (H=48)17.7 (H=58)
3PROJ-Bloom16301360.91.57300. (H=28)13.1 (H=34)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-8.6)2 (-11.3)2 (-9.8)2 (-11.7)
1Tevin Coleman186230323305.
1Raheem Mostert20940011004.
2Christian McCaffrey7916370621605.
2Alex Armah700000000.

Saquon Barkley (FanDuel: $9200, DraftKings: $9100)

1@ DAL5511120064.019013.917.915.920.9
2vs BUF6118107173.028019.522.521.025.5
3PROJ-Dodds18850.64.3320.216.520.818.7 (H=34)20.8 (H=42)
3PROJ-Tremblay19870.63.6280.115.719.317.5 (H=30)19.3 (H=37)
3PROJ-Bloom15620.53.0240.212.815.814.3 (H=21)15.8 (H=26)

Wayne Gallman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ DAL14217133.024010.113.111.613.1
2vs BUF900010.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds2801.1701.52.62.0 (H=1)2.6 (H=2)
3PROJ-Tremblay1501.1801.32.41.8 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-7.2)8 (-8.3)7 (-7.6)7 (-9.3)
1Richie James26213910009.910.910.410.9
1Deebo Samuel60331700001.
2Curtis Samuel771359101209.314.311.814.3
2D.J. Moore751498900008.917.913.417.9

Sterling Shepard (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ DAL6876.04200004.
2vs BUF000.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.3400.20005.28.56.9 (H=9)8.5 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.8240.100034.83.9 (H=3)4.8 (H=6)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bennie Fowler (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ DAL5055.0400000496.59.0
2vs BUF55105.051012007.112.19.612.1
3PROJ-Dodds2.7300.21304.57.25.9 (H=8)7.2 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.6370.21405.37.96.6 (H=10)7.9 (H=19)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0350.20004.78.76.7 (H=11)8.7 (H=22)

Cody Latimer (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ DAL6183.07400007.410.48.910.4
2vs BUF4053.0300000364.56.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.6260.20003.85.44.6 (H=5)5.4 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2320.20004.46.65.5 (H=6)6.6 (H=13)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cody Core (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ DAL000.000000000.00.0
2vs BUF1453.02800002.
3PROJ-Dodds1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Russell Shepard (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ DAL900.000000000.00.0
2vs BUF4132.01900001.
3PROJ-Dodds1.0100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.7100.10001.62.32.0 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.3)26 (+3.5)23 (+2.4)27 (+4.8)
1George Kittle621085405.413.49.413.4
2Greg Olsen6596110011.

Evan Engram (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ DAL531411.0116117.628.623.131.6
2vs BUF5586.04804.810.87.810.8
3PROJ-Dodds5.8590.48.314.111.2 (H=20)14.1 (H=37)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.6570.48.113.710.9 (H=19)13.7 (H=35)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0410.35.910.98.4 (H=12)10.9 (H=24)

Rhett Ellison (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ DAL2221.0800.
2vs BUF3311.0800.
3PROJ-Dodds0.980. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31T (+5.2)31T (+5.2)32 (+7.0) (+0.0)
1Robbie Gould3422111112.012.0
2Joey Slye4400121216.016.0

Aldrick Rosas (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ DAL1122555.05.0
2vs BUF0122222.02.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+7.2)31 (+7.2)31 (+9.7)31 (+9.7)
1San Francisco 49ers1729533102232327.027.0
2Carolina Panthers2028930000336.06.0

New York Giants (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ DAL35.004940000000-4.0-4.0
2vs BUF28.0038830000332.02.0
3PROJ-Dodds27.203852.21.20.600. (H=16)7.2 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay27.253922.51.30.500. (H=17)7.5 (H=21)

Giants vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+10.0)30 (+10.0)30 (+9.7)30 (+9.9)
1Dak Prescott65253240540412037.537.533.436.4
2Josh Allen76193025310721124.824.822.222.2

Jameis Winston (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5400)

1vs SF702036194135130121210.110.1
2@ CAR6516252081049015.315.313.213.2
3PROJ-Dodds23362661.81.23160.121.521.521.5 (H=55)21.5 (H=75)
3PROJ-Tremblay24392781.91.34210.122.922.922.9 (H=62)22.9 (H=83)
3PROJ-Bloom19272061.60.84100.117.517.517.5 (H=38)17.5 (H=52)

Giants vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.6)17 (-0.5)21 (+1.2)14 (-0.9)
1Ezekiel Elliott37135312110012.313.312.813.3
1Tony Pollard221324000002.
2Frank Gore45196812215014.316.315.316.3
2Devin Singletary256571000011.711.711.711.7

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs SF25833042.01204.
2@ CAR422382111.07014.915.915.415.9
3PROJ-Dodds15600.51.8110.110.712.511.6 (H=22)12.5 (H=34)
3PROJ-Tremblay14600.52.3150.111.113.412.3 (H=25)13.4 (H=38)
3PROJ-Bloom19600.61.05010.111.110.6 (H=19)11.1 (H=28)

Ronald Jones II (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs SF221375011.01809.310.39.810.3
2@ CAR849000.0000.
3PROJ-Dodds9350.30.7405.76.46.1 (H=9)6.4 (H=12)
3PROJ-Tremblay8330.30.5305.45.95.7 (H=8)5.9 (H=11)
3PROJ-Bloom8380.30.0005.65.65.6 (H=8)5.6 (H=10)

Dare Ogunbowale (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs SF2700064.03303.
2@ CAR1600011.0900.
3PROJ-Dodds0002.7190. (H=4)5.2 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay0003.2220.12.864.4 (H=5)6.0 (H=13)
3PROJ-Bloom0002.0150. (H=3)4.1 (H=6)

Giants vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+12.1)30 (+15.0)29T (+13.7)30 (+16.5)
1Amari Cooper5296106100016.622.619.625.6
1Michael Gallup5377158000015.822.819.325.8
2Isaiah McKenzie172240114010.412.411.412.4
2Cole Beasley37448300008.312.310.312.3

Chris Godwin (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6900)

1vs SF6463.053100011.314.312.814.3
2@ CAR6298.0121100018.
3PROJ-Dodds5.4710.500010.115.512.8 (H=21)15.5 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.3700.50001015.312.6 (H=21)15.3 (H=32)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0610.40008.514.511.5 (H=18)14.5 (H=29)

Mike Evans (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs SF6052.02800002.
2@ CAR5984.06100006.
3PROJ-Dodds5.2760.40001015.212.6 (H=22)15.2 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.4800.400010.415.813.1 (H=24)15.8 (H=36)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0650.50009.513.511.5 (H=19)13.5 (H=27)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs SF4552.0100000132.03.0
2@ CAR3140.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.4180.10002.43.83.1 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.3480.30006.69.98.3 (H=16)9.9 (H=34)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Giants vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.1)21 (+2.3)26 (+2.7)21 (+2.1)
1Blake Jarwin27333919.912.911.412.9
2Dawson Knox41411801.

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs SF5554.03203.
2@ CAR6000.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.1380. (H=10)8.7 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.3280. (H=7)6.9 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0510.47.511.59.5 (H=17)11.5 (H=36)

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs SF3122.0800.
2@ CAR1822.0100132.03.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.8150. (H=4)4.5 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.5120. (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
3PROJ-Bloom2. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Giants vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.8)9 (-1.8)9 (-2.5) (+0.0)
1Brett Maher0055555.05.0
2Steve Hauschka0044444.04.0

Matt Gay (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs SF1122555.05.0
2@ CAR2322889.09.0

Giants vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.8)13T (-0.8)16 (-0.8)16 (-0.8)
1Dallas Cowboys1747010200556.06.0
2Buffalo Bills1437012000556.06.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs SF31.0025611101111112.012.0
2@ CAR14.0035230110779.09.0
3PROJ-Dodds20.803582.410.700. (H=21)9.2 (H=32)
3PROJ-Tremblay20.753542.31.10.700. (H=24)9.9 (H=36)