Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 13, Cowboys 35

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense5.0 (-16.8) (32)32 (-77) (31)160 (-88) (30)
Cowboys Defense19.0 (-2.8) (13)99 (-9) (12)264 (+14) (21)

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense33.0 (+11.2) (5)151 (+42) (6)333 (+84) (3)
Dolphins Defense51.0 (+29.2) (32)196 (+86) (32)316 (+67) (28)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

Dolphins running backs managed just 40 rushing yards in another blowout loss to start their season. This Miami team, on both sides of the ball, has been dreadful. It is tough for a rushing offense to find any rhythm when the offense as a whole has no way to sustain drives while their defense can’t keep points off the board. The Dolphins were actually in the game by halftime last week, down by less than two touchdowns, but it was broken open quickly as the game went forward as this rushing offense had no chance to succeed. Their offensive line played just as bad as Footballguys Matt Bitonti had them ranked coming into last week--dead last in the league. Kenyan Drake has been the lead rusher, while Mark Walton found some minimal success on three carries last week. Kalen Ballage has seen a limited workload and looked very rough around the edges as well. All in all, this is not a rushing offense to be trusted as they are playing terribly behind the league’s worst offensive line with one of the worst defenses in the league, leading to a game script that will make it even more difficult to run the ball effectively.

The Cowboys defense did a number on the Redskins in Week 2, holding them to just 47 rushing yards with lead back Adrian Peterson averaging only 2.5 yards per attempt. This was a nice bounceback performance after giving up 120 yards on the ground to Saquon Barkley in Week 1. However, the Cowboys still rank last in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed to running backs, giving up just over six yards per carry. The defensive line looked better last week with Maliek Collins turning in a solid performance, but they still have some question marks up front as play against the run from their defensive ends has been suspect in both games. To make matters worse, starting defensive tackle Antwaun Woods was forced from last week’s game with a knee injury. Reports indicate he will miss a few weeks, and while Woods was not necessarily a cornerstone of this defensive line, his absence will likely not improve this unit’s play. The linebacker position also remains a soft spot as both Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith have not lived up to expectations. Vander Esch even missed a tackle on Adrian Peterson to allow a goal-line touchdown last week. If the Dolphins can keep this game in a place conducive to making an effort towards establishing the run, they may have a shot at some limited success. However, it would be a long shot as this is still the league’s worst offensive line leading what has looked to be an equally bad offense in total.

Dolphins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Dolphins offense was shut out last week as their struggles continued in all facets of the game. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for three interceptions and just 89 yards before being benched in favor of allowing Josh Rosen some playing time. Rosen also threw an interception while completing just 39 percent of his pass attempts. Both quarterbacks were pressured heavily as the Dolphins offensive line has been terrible, ranking firmly at the bottom of the league according to Matt Bitonti of Footballguys. Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain the starter for Week 3, but this situation is fluid and could change mid-game. Rookie receiver Preston Williams has been a bright spot for Miami’s offense as he has performed relatively well, all things considered. DeVante Parker, on the other hand, was targeted a team-leading seven times last week and failed to catch a single pass as he continues to disappoint.

The Cowboys should have a clear advantage against a struggling Dolphins offense this week. The Miami offensive line will struggle against what has been a mediocre Cowboys defensive line. Both Demarcus Lawrence and Meliek Collins have had great starts to the season, but the rest of this unit has not impressed in the pass-rushing department. The return of edge rusher Robert Quinn from suspension will provide a much-needed boost to this Cowboys pass rush that has notched just two sacks to start the season. The secondary for Dallas looked decent, but they have yet to face what anyone would label as stiff competition with only Eli Manning and Case Keenum on their resume. This secondary did suffer a big loss from last week, however, as strong safety Xavier Woods injured his hamstring and is expected to miss multiple weeks. The talent behind Woods is thin, so safety now becomes a key weakness for this untested Dallas secondary. Even with that loss, however, the Cowboys will still have the advantage this week against the struggling Dolphins offense.

Cowboys Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

After being eased in during Week 1, Ezekiel Elliott took back over as the clear leader of the Cowboys backfield last week as he rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown. Elliott averaged 4.8 yards per attempt with 23 carries compared to just four carries for the now clear backup Tony Pollard. Elliott showed no signs of fatigue throughout this game as he played strong from start to finish and looks like the bell-cow back everyone expected him to be. The Cowboys offensive line has now looked strong through two games this season and will remain a top tier option for Elliott to run behind. In addition to Elliott, Dak Prescott reminded everyone how dangerous he can be with his legs as he added 69 yards on the ground--including a 42-yard rush near the end of last week’s game.

The Dolphins defense is undoubtedly off to a terrible start this season, giving up 102 points through just two games. After allowing an astonishing 265 yards on the ground to the Ravens in Week 1, they came back allowing the Patriots to rush for 126 yards last week. Their defensive line has been overpowered in both games while this linebacker group has been quite subpar. Raekwon McMillan did have a better game last week, but he needs to string together a few good games to instill any confidence in the core of that group. Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick has been the best run defender for the Dolphins, but he is on the way to Pittsburgh as he was traded away for a first-round pick this week. With Fitzpatrick now gone and safety Reshad Jones banged up, the secondary for Miami can’t be relied upon for run-stopping support. Given the status of this Cowboys offensive line as one of the best in the league along with what should be a very favorable game script for rushing, Ezekiel Elliott should have little problem putting up impressive numbers this week.

Cowboys Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Dak Prescott continued his impressive start to the season last week, passing for three touchdowns and 269 yards as he completed a stellar 86.7 percent of his 30 pass attempts. Prescott now has seven touchdowns to start the season as he has looked like one of the top quarterbacks in the league under his new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Amari Cooper found the end zone for the second straight week, but he actually finished third in targets behind both Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup as Prescott was spreading the ball around. His top target for the season has been Michael Gallup, who looked impressive last week before suffering a meniscus injury that will sideline him for multiple weeks. Gallup’s absence will open the door for Devin Smith to at least temporarily see more playing time. Smith burst onto the scene last week as he hauled in all three of his targets for 74 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown reception on which he showed off his flashy speed. Jason Witten also remains a key cog in this offense. He has been targeted twice in the red zone in back-to-back games and converted on one of those opportunities in each week as he has notched two touchdowns already.

After the Dolphins allowed 102 points scored and a league-leading 32.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks through the first two weeks, one would think things could not get much worse for this defense. However, the Dolphins decided to trade away one of their top playmaking defensive backs Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers earlier this week. This makes an already thin defense even thinner, as Fitzpatrick was about as versatile as they come at the defensive back position. They still have a talented young cornerback in Xavien Howard, but the rest of this secondary along with a ho-hum defensive line represents an extreme liability that should have the Cowboys passing offense licking its chops.

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.0)16 (-1.0)12 (-2.8)15 (-1.5)
1Eli Manning6430443061016019.919.914.818.8
2Case Keenum622637221201-1019.019.016.716.7

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs BAL4514291851118013.
2vs NE38112189031602.
3PROJ-Dodds19322020.81.216012.712.712.7 (H=26)12.7 (H=36)
3PROJ-Tremblay15241790.70.914011.211.211.2 (H=21)11.2 (H=29)
3PROJ-Bloom18341770.71.517010.810.810.8 (H=20)10.8 (H=27)

Josh Rosen (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs BAL513501000-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8
2vs NE2471897010003.
3PROJ-Dodds47410.20.1120333.0 (H=2)3.0 (H=2)
3PROJ-Tremblay36360.10.20102.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=1)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.0)24 (+4.9)23 (+3.6)25 (+6.0)
1Saquon Barkley551112006419013.917.915.920.9
1Wayne Gallman1421713324010.113.111.613.1
2Adrian Peterson181025122709.
2Chris Thompson28230854805.110.17.610.1

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs BAL27412032.01502.
2vs NE34619065.02904.
3PROJ-Dodds6240.13.8230. (H=13)9.7 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay8290.12.8210.16.297.6 (H=12)9.0 (H=19)
3PROJ-Bloom5130.14.0210. (H=9)8.6 (H=18)

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs BAL205-1011.01301.
2vs NE2146051.0601.
3PROJ-Dodds6200.11.61103.75.34.5 (H=5)5.3 (H=8)
3PROJ-Tremblay7250.11.91404.56.45.5 (H=7)6.4 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom4801.0701.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)

Mark Walton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs BAL411000.0000.
2vs NE10315021.01202.
3PROJ-Dodds280.10.7401.82.52.2 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay3110.10.6502.22.82.5 (H=2)2.8 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom2600.0000.60.60.6 (H=0)0.6 (H=0)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-4.1)13 (-3.7)12 (-3.8)12 (-5.2)
1Cody Latimer61837400007.410.48.910.4
1Sterling Shepard68764200004.
2Terry McLaurin569562100012.217.214.717.2
2Paul Richardson54331610007.610.69.110.6

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs BAL3873.07500007.510.59.010.5
2vs NE5770.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.0440.20005.68.67.1 (H=12)8.6 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.3460.20005.89.17.5 (H=13)9.1 (H=22)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0410.10004.77.76.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=17)

Preston Williams (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs BAL2153.02410008.411.49.911.4
2vs NE4264.06300006.310.38.310.3
3PROJ-Dodds3.3420.10004.88.16.5 (H=10)8.1 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.6360.10004.26.85.5 (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0550.30007.311.39.3 (H=18)11.3 (H=36)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs BAL3031.0-30000-0.30.7-1.8-0.3
2vs NE3873.02201-401.
3PROJ-Dodds2.6280.11303.76.35.1 (H=7)6.4 (H=14)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.5340.11404.46.95.8 (H=9)7.0 (H=16)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0170.10002.35.33.9 (H=4)5.4 (H=10)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs BAL3531.02200002.
2vs NE2821.01300001.
3PROJ-Dodds1.3190.10002.53.83.2 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.2170.10002.33.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1.01400001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs BAL642.01301101.
2vs NE000.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.0150.11402.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.3)29 (+7.5)29 (+5.9)30 (+8.8)
1Evan Engram531411116117.628.623.131.6
2Vernon Davis46432902.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs BAL3462.03103.
2vs NE3521.01101.
3PROJ-Dodds2.3240.135.34.2 (H=5)5.3 (H=13)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2210. (H=4)4.9 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=4)4.8 (H=11)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.3)8 (-2.3)8 (-3.0) (+0.0)
1Aldrick Rosas1122555.05.0
2Dustin Hopkins0033333.03.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs BAL1111446.06.0
2vs NE0000000.00.0

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-4.3)2T (-4.3)1 (-7.8)1 (-7.8)
1New York Giants354940000000-4.0-4.0
2Washington Redskins3147411000332.02.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $2000, DraftKings: $2000)

1vs BAL59.006431000011-3.0-3.0
2vs NE43.0038120100443.03.0
3PROJ-Dodds34.304182.20.80.500. (H=12)4.2 (H=12)
3PROJ-Tremblay34.253882.110.400. (H=12)4.3 (H=12)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+14.8)32 (+14.8)32 (+14.5)32 (+14.8)
1Lamar Jackson5417203245036036.836.833.636.6
2Tom Brady7220282642021127.327.324.724.7

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6500)

1vs NYG65253240540412037.537.533.436.4
2@ WAS70263026931569031.431.428.728.7
3PROJ-Dodds21302511.90.84190.423.623.623.6 (H=56)23.6 (H=73)
3PROJ-Tremblay2032244214200.423.623.623.6 (H=56)23.6 (H=73)
3PROJ-Bloom202622120.54210.221.921.921.9 (H=49)21.9 (H=64)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.8)30 (+10.2)31 (+10.7)31 (+10.8)
1Mark Ingram25141072000022.722.722.725.7
1Gus Edwards291756000005.
2Sony Michel3521851000014.514.512.513.5
2James White223100431918.911.910.411.9

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $8900)

1vs NYG371353121.010012.313.312.813.3
2@ WAS5323111122.090182019.023.0
3PROJ-Dodds2110013.3270.219.923.221.6 (H=46)23.2 (H=52)
3PROJ-Tremblay231010.92.0160.117.719.718.7 (H=36)19.7 (H=39)
3PROJ-Bloom2010312.0130. (H=37)20.2 (H=40)

Tony Pollard (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs NYG221324000.0002.
2@ WAS17422011.0302.
3PROJ-Dodds7280.20.9704.75.65.2 (H=6)5.6 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay4170.21.0803.74.74.2 (H=4)4.7 (H=7)
3PROJ-Bloom13550.31.070898.5 (H=16)9.0 (H=23)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+9.1)25 (+6.5)26 (+7.9)25 (+6.5)
1Marquise Brown1454147200026.730.728.733.7
1Willie Snead503241100010.
2Antonio Brown248456115012.
2Julian Edelman66445101105.

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7500)

1vs NYG5296.0106100016.622.619.625.6
2@ WAS6454.044100010.414.412.414.4
3PROJ-Dodds5.5830.700012.51815.2 (H=28)18.0 (H=39)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.3790.700012.117.414.7 (H=27)17.4 (H=37)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0710.600010.715.713.2 (H=22)15.7 (H=31)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs NYG4854.069100012.916.914.916.9
2@ WAS5365.024021103.
3PROJ-Dodds4.3480.41407.611.99.9 (H=20)12.0 (H=32)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.4530.41608.312.710.6 (H=22)12.8 (H=35)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0430.41507.211.29.3 (H=17)11.3 (H=28)

Devin Smith (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs NYG600.000000000.00.0
2@ WAS1833.074100013.416.414.916.4
3PROJ-Dodds2.4430.30006.18.57.3 (H=12)8.5 (H=23)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.5350.30005.37.86.6 (H=10)7.8 (H=20)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0500.30006.89.88.3 (H=15)9.8 (H=30)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.5)31 (+9.7)31 (+8.1)31 (+11.0)
1Mark Andrews3288108116.824.820.827.8
2Matt LaCosse42223303.

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs NYG4543.01517.510.59.010.5
2@ WAS5444.02518.512.510.512.5
3PROJ-Dodds2.9260. (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.5270.34.575.8 (H=8)7.0 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0170. (H=9)7.7 (H=18)

Blake Jarwin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs NYG2733.03919.912.911.412.9
2@ WAS2411.02202.
3PROJ-Dodds1.7180. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.3130. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0150. (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.7)25T (+2.7)22 (+2.0) (+0.0)
1Justin Tucker1188111111.011.0
2Stephen Gostkowski1246777.07.0

Brett Maher (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs NYG0055555.05.0
2@ WAS1144777.07.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+12.2)32 (+12.2)32 (+18.2)32 (+18.2)
1Baltimore Ravens10200321009913.013.0
2New England Patriots018474002272737.037.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs NYG17.0047010200556.06.0
2@ WAS21.0025510000111.01.0
3PROJ-Dodds13.202762. (H=40)14.4 (H=47)
3PROJ-Tremblay13.252951. (H=40)14.4 (H=47)