Matchup Analysis: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Lions 21, Eagles 28

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Detroit Lions Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Lions Offense20.0 (-1.8) (17)105 (-3) (16)303 (+54) (6)
Eagles Defense25.5 (+3.7) (25)42 (-66) (3)340 (+91) (31)

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense26.0 (+4.2) (8)86 (-22) (22)275 (+26) (12)
Lions Defense18.5 (-3.3) (11)124 (+15) (21)281 (+32) (24)

Lions Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

The Detroit Lions cut backup running back C.J. Anderson this week in favor of former-New York Giants running back Paul Perkins. In weeks one and two, Anderson played 22 and 20 percent of offensive snaps, respectively. His departure will almost certainly lead to an uptick in snaps and touches for second-year running back Kerryon Johnson. Johnson posted an impressive 5.4 yards-per-carry on 118 carries throughout his rookie season. While his sophomore campaign has been far less awe-inspiring through just two games, Johnson clearly has the potential to emerge as a bell-cow running back in Matt Patricia's run-heavy offense. Detroit's offensive line entered the 2019 season ranked in the middle of the pack as a run-blocking unit. Two games into the season, the Lions have reaffirmed this assessment.

While the Philadelphia Eagles have struggled against the pass to open the 2019 season, they sport one of the league's best run-defenses. The Eagles have allowed just 2.8 yards-per-carry through the first two games of the season, the 5th-best total in the NFL. Additionally, over the course of a full game, opponents have yet to top 57 rushing yards against Philadelphia this season. Individually, Brandon Graham has been playing out of his mind after receiving a well-deserved contract extension this offseason. In addition to Graham, the Philadelphia Eagles signed linebacker Zach Brown away from division-rivals, the Washington Redskins. Brown's run-stopping prowess and tackling ability in the open field have made an immediate impact on the field for Philadelphia, which has helped to mask the unexpected struggles of defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Fletcher Cox's production levels through two games pale in comparison to what he has provided in recent years. A player of Cox's talent level can be relied upon to get these issues solved sooner rather than later, but it certainly does not hurt to have players like Zach Brown available to pick up the slack when necessary. Philadelphia's run defense is already a scary unit to face off with, and once Fletcher Cox returns to form, it will only get worse for opposing running backs.

Lions Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

The Detroit Lions' opened the season with two polar opposite opponents. In week one, the Arizona Cardinals attempted to rely upon an up-tempo offense to maximize their offense's chance of scoring. In week two, the Los Angeles Chargers slowed down the pace to mask notable absences on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. In turn, Detroit's offensive production through two games has been somewhat erratic. In week one, Matthew Stafford threw the ball 45 times, primarily to Kenny Golladay (9 targets,) Danny Amendola (13 targets,) and T.J. Hockenson (9 targets.) In week two, Stafford attempted just 30 passes. Kenny Golladay stood out as Stafford's favorite target in week two, commanding 10 targets, while both Amendola and Hockenson tailed off with only 1 and 3 targets, respectively. Golladay is the team's clear-cut number-one wide receiver, which should bode well for Stafford's efficiency. Golladay has long been considered one of the best young talents at the wide receiver position, and a more substantial and more consistent role in the offense is well-deserved. Detroit's offensive line struggled in week one against the Arizona Cardinals, as Stafford was under pressure more than any other quarterback in the league. These struggles carried over to week two when the Chargers disrupted the pocket on 9 of Stafford's 32 dropbacks on the day. The Lions need to shore up the trenches before expecting a consistently-dangerous passing attack, and week three at Philadelphia poses a tough matchup up front. Fortunately, the Eagles' secondary is far from elite.

Through the first 2 weeks of the 2019 season, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed multiple 300+ yard passers, multiple 3-touchdown passers, and 3 100+ yard receivers. Philadelphia had hoped that a healthy secondary in 2019 would provide a solution to the coverage issues that arose late in 2018 following a slew of injuries, that has not been the case. Philadelphia ranks 31st in passing yards allowed, 29th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 25th in net-yards-per-attempt allowed. The Eagles' pass rush has done the secondary no favors to start the season. Aside from Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, no other member of the Eagles front-four (or linebacking corps) has been able to generate pressure at a respectable rate to start the season. What had previously been a strength of Philadelphia's defense, depth on the defensive line, has quickly transformed into a weakness. In week one, the Eagles lost defensive tackle Malik Jackson for the season to a foot injury. Then, in week two, Jackson's replacement Tim Jernigan was taken back to the locker room on a cart, and he will miss about a month due to a foot injury of his own. Philadelphia's pass defense has been woefully disappointing through two games, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will have his work cut out for him attempting to solve these issues ahead of a week three clash with the Detroit Lions.

Eagles Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Lions defense.

Two games into the 2019 season, only one thing is evident in the Philadelphia Eagles' backfield: it will continue to be a running-back-by-committee approach. Rookie Miles Sanders leads the team in rushing attempts, but he has been mostly unimpressive during his time on the field, mustering just 2.5 yards-per-carry to this point. Another offseason acquisition, Jordan Howard, has been far more impressive, even if his efficiency levels are merely league-average. Philadelphia identified the running back position as a position of need over the offseason following a disastrous 2018 season running the football. The Eagles undoubtedly expected more return on their offseason investment at the running back position, and a shift in touches away from Sanders and towards Howard shortly would not come as a surprise. One of the league's best offensive lines should produce far more impressive rushing numbers than what the Eagles have totaled over the last 13 months. The alarms will be sounding in Philadelphia's backfield if the team continues to struggle to get the ground game going.

The Detroit Lions finished the 2018 season with a top-10 run defense in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. The early weeks of 2019, however, have not been nearly as strong for the Lions' front-seven. Through the first two games of the 2019 season, the Detroit Lions have allowed a stunning 5.2 yards-per-carry (26th in the NFL) and at least 112 rushing yards in both games. Detroit's struggles have coincided directly with the struggles of noted run-stopping defensive linemen Damon "Snacks" Harrison. Harrison was acquired midway through the 2018 season and immediately bolstered Detroit's run-defense as part of an elite defensive tackle duo alongside A'Shawn Robinson. While Robinson has carried over his top-notch run-stopping from 2018 into the 2019 season, Harrison has not. However, Harrison will almost certainly get back on track soon. Following six straight seasons as the NFL's best run-stopping defensive tackles, two sub-par games from Damon Harrison are more likely a random occurrence than anything signaling an emerging trend. The true cause for concern on Detroit's defense is at the linebacker position. The linebacking corps has struggled mightily defending the run in 2019, in part due to the absence of Jarrad Davis. Davis may potentially return from a preseason ankle injury here in week three, which will undoubtedly bolster the team's run defense. If Davis is unable to go, and the Lions field the same three starters from weeks one and two, that could spell trouble. Christian Jones has posted astonishingly-poor numbers in run defense, and Devon Kennard has regressed mightily following a respectable showing in 2018. Davis' status leading up to a week three battle with one of the NFL's best offensive lines will be vital to evaluating this matchup. It's looking like he will return which is a significant increase to the Lions this week.

Eagles Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Lions defense.

The injury bug bit the Philadelphia Eagles' receiving unit throughout week two, as the team lost Alshon Jeffrey, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert for the matchup against Atlanta. In week three, Alshon Jeffrey's status is in doubt, and in his place rookie, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside will likely step into the starting lineup. The Eagles drafted Arcega-Whiteside, a physically-gifted jump-ball specialist from Stanford, in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The rookie was unimpressive in his first crack at significant playing time in the NFL, and expectations for his production in the short-term should be tempered. Additionally, DeSean Jackson is unlikely to see the field in week three. In Jackson's place, Mack Hollins is poised to make his first career start. Hollins, a third-year receiver, produced 5 catches for 50 yards on 8 targets in what was effectively his first career start against the Falcons. In the absence of two key contributors, Carson Wentz primarily utilized Nelson Algoholor and Zach Ertz through the air, as he targeted the duo 11 and 16 times, respectively. Philadelphia's offensive line entered the season as one of the league's best, and the first two weeks of the 2019 season have solidified this ranking. Philadelphia's passing attack, when healthy, is a strength of this roster. In week three, battling various injuries, Doug Pederson and the rest of the coaching staff have their work cut out for them trying to construct a dangerous passing attack.

The Detroit Lions opened the season against the Arizona Cardinals' up-tempo offense in both quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's first taste of NFL action. Murray finished with 308 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception on the day: a stat line driven by an extremely pass-heavy comeback attempt. In week two, Detroit faced off with a much slower, and depleted, Los Angeles Chargers passing attack. Philip Rivers posted 293 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 36 passing attempts in the game. Rivers, however, entered the game without his number-one tight end, Hunter Henry, and a hampered number-two wide receiver, as Mike Williams played through a knee injury. The Detroit pass-rush has been perfectly average through two weeks, generating middling-pressure numbers on opposing quarterbacks. On the back-end, Detroit fields one of the league's best cornerbacks, Darius Slay. Slay is one of the few cornerbacks in the NFL that follows the opposition's number-one wide receiver in coverage, regardless of whether it is on the left or right side of the formation. Against Philadelphia, it is unclear whether or not he will shadow one wide receiver throughout the game, but if he does, Slay will follow Nelson Algholor. As a whole, Detroit's pass defense is a league-average unit at all levels, from the pass-rush to pass-coverage.

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+7.1)26 (+7.0)26 (+6.5)27 (+8.2)
1Case Keenum6730443803000031.
2Matt Ryan6627433203323025.325.322.125.1

Matthew Stafford (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5500)

1@ ARI88274538530322033.533.527.631.6
2vs LAC61223024522413019.619.617.117.1
3PROJ-Dodds23352561.40.9280.118.918.918.9 (H=47)18.9 (H=59)
3PROJ-Tremblay22352461.41.1380. (H=44)18.2 (H=55)
3PROJ-Bloom22312471.50.53130.119.819.819.8 (H=51)19.8 (H=64)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-6.7)10 (-4.3)10 (-5.3)10 (-4.7)
1Chris Thompson4331001076807.814.811.314.8
1Derrius Guice2410180332003.
2Devonta Freeman4111220434206.
2Ito Smith254320321304.

Kerryon Johnson (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5600)

1@ ARI501649022.01306.
2vs LAC331241032.047114.816.815.816.8
3PROJ-Dodds13630.32.5180.110.51311.8 (H=21)13.0 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay12570.31.81308.810.69.7 (H=15)10.6 (H=21)
3PROJ-Bloom16750.52.0190.1131514.0 (H=29)15.0 (H=38)

Ty Johnson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ ARI816000.0000.
2vs LAC13530022.0603.
3PROJ-Dodds5210.11.1803.54.64.1 (H=5)4.6 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay3110.10.7502.22.92.6 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
3PROJ-Bloom7310.11.0804.55.55.0 (H=7)5.5 (H=12)

J.D. McKissic (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ ARI500022.02402.
2vs LAC422000.0000.
3PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay1400.7500.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
3PROJ-Bloom0001.0900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+13.0)31 (+15.9)31 (+14.6)32 (+18.9)
1Terry McLaurin6275125100018.523.521.026.5
1Trey Quinn65643310009.313.311.313.3
2Julio Jones54105106200022.627.625.130.6
2Calvin Ridley42108105100016.524.520.527.5

Kenny Golladay (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6600)

1@ ARI8694.042100010.
2vs LAC56108.0117100017.725.721.728.7
3PROJ-Dodds5.6720.40009.615.212.4 (H=22)15.2 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.4730.40009.715.112.4 (H=22)15.1 (H=33)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0770.500010.716.713.7 (H=26)16.7 (H=39)

Marvin Jones (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ ARI7144.05601406108.010.0
2vs LAC5665.04300004.
3PROJ-Dodds3.7470.20005.99.67.8 (H=12)9.6 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.8390.20305.48.26.8 (H=10)8.2 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0560.400081310.5 (H=21)13.0 (H=33)

Danny Amendola (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ ARI47137.0104100016.423.419.926.4
2vs LAC3510.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.3350.20004.786.4 (H=10)8.0 (H=19)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.4480.2000610.48.2 (H=15)10.4 (H=30)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0160.10002.24.23.2 (H=3)4.2 (H=6)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.4)20 (+1.6)18 (+1.5)20 (+1.3)
1Vernon Davis557459111.915.913.915.9
2Austin Hooper50643403.

T.J. Hockenson (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ ARI6496.0131119.
2vs LAC4831.0700.
3PROJ-Dodds3.7430. (H=13)9.8 (H=29)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.6370. (H=11)9.1 (H=26)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0460. (H=13)9.4 (H=27)

Jesse James (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ ARI5111.01501.
2vs LAC3043.01801.
3PROJ-Dodds1.5150. (H=3)3.6 (H=7)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.7210. (H=4)4.4 (H=10)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.2)23T (+2.5) (+0.0)
1Dustin Hopkins22339911.011.0
2Matt Bryant1233668.08.0

Matt Prater (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ ARI22339911.011.0
2vs LAC0112111.01.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.8)13T (-0.8)9T (-1.8)9T (-1.8)
1Washington Redskins3243610000110.00.0
2Atlanta Falcons20286321009910.010.0

Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2200)

1@ ARI27.0038751000777.07.0
2vs LAC10.0042411100559.09.0
3PROJ-Dodds27.203732.40.90.500.2666.0 (H=12)6.0 (H=20)
3PROJ-Tremblay26.503732.51.20.600. (H=19)7.7 (H=31)

Lions vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.8)15 (-1.8)16 (-0.9)17 (-0.6)
1Kyler Murray89295430821313023.723.722.625.6
2Philip Rivers67213629301112014.914.911.911.9

Carson Wentz (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs WAS7528393133045028.
2@ ATL7525432311233119.919.919.519.5
3PROJ-Dodds24372601.91390. (H=51)21.1 (H=70)
3PROJ-Tremblay23382711.81.23100. (H=51)21.1 (H=70)
3PROJ-Bloom25342371.81.1350.1191919.0 (H=42)19.0 (H=58)

Lions vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.2)28 (+7.0)27 (+5.3)26 (+6.1)
1David Johnson77188207655119.725.722.725.7
1Chase Edmonds1015010000.
2Austin Ekeler49176616667019.325.320.324.3
2Justin Jackson18759011506.

Miles Sanders (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs WAS361125021.0202.
2@ ATL351028043.0903.
3PROJ-Dodds11450.42.2150.1911.210.2 (H=20)11.3 (H=34)
3PROJ-Tremblay10430.41.9150.18.810.79.8 (H=19)10.8 (H=31)
3PROJ-Bloom11350. (H=14)9.4 (H=24)

Jordan Howard (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs WAS17644032.01105.
2@ ATL18818011.0802.
3PROJ-Dodds8330.21.0705.26.25.7 (H=7)6.2 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay7270.21.31004.96.25.6 (H=7)6.2 (H=11)
3PROJ-Bloom9350.40.0005.95.95.9 (H=7)5.9 (H=10)

Darren Sproles (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs WAS23947033.01606.39.39.811.3
2@ ATL2800032.0500.
3PROJ-Dodds3160.12.6210. (H=10)7.6 (H=18)
3PROJ-Tremblay4200.21.9170. (H=11)7.5 (H=18)
3PROJ-Bloom270.14.0310. (H=14)9.7 (H=28)

Lions vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.1)24 (+4.5)23 (+3.9)24 (+5.5)
1Larry Fitzgerald85138113100017.325.321.328.3
1KeeSean Johnson681054600004.
2Keenan Allen611589800009.817.813.817.8
2Mike Williams41538300008.311.39.811.3

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs WAS6052.01100001.
2@ ATL78118.0107100016.724.720.727.7
3PROJ-Dodds4.6590.50008.913.511.2 (H=27)13.5 (H=50)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.3550.30007.311.69.5 (H=20)11.6 (H=38)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0560.50008.613.611.1 (H=26)13.6 (H=51)

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs WAS500.000000000.00.0
2@ ATL7541.0400000.
3PROJ-Dodds2.7360.30005.48.16.8 (H=12)8.1 (H=21)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0190.20003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=9)

Mack Hollins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs WAS1000.000000000.00.0
2@ ATL6985.05000005107.510.0
3PROJ-Dodds2.8330.20004.57.35.9 (H=9)7.3 (H=19)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.1300.20004.26.35.3 (H=7)6.3 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0420.30006108.0 (H=16)10.0 (H=33)

DeSean Jackson (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5800)

1vs WAS5298.0154200027.435.431.438.4
2@ ATL1100.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2360.20004.875.9 (H=6)7.0 (H=10)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Alshon Jeffery (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5700)

1vs WAS6075.049112117.122.119.622.1
2@ ATL600.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.9270.20304.26.15.2 (H=5)6.1 (H=8)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Lions vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.4)1 (-8.7)2 (-7.1)1 (-9.0)
1Maxx Williams22111501.
2Virgil Green5921900.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5700)

1vs WAS6275.05405.410.47.910.4
2@ ATL81168.07207.
3PROJ-Dodds6.6680.610.41713.7 (H=26)17.0 (H=47)
3PROJ-Tremblay6.3660.610.216.513.4 (H=25)16.5 (H=45)
3PROJ-Bloom8.0810.511.119.115.1 (H=31)19.1 (H=58)

Lions vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.2)14T (+0.2)16T (-0.0) (+0.0)
1Zane Gonzalez4411131314.014.0
2Mike Badgley0000000.00.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs WAS1133666.06.0
2@ ATL2200667.07.0

Lions vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.3)18T (-0.3)19T (+0.7)19T (+0.7)
1Arizona Cardinals2747730200777.07.0
2Los Angeles Chargers1333902000448.08.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs WAS27.0039810000111.01.0
2@ ATL24.0036713000777.07.0
3PROJ-Dodds20.503662.50.90.600. (H=20)9.1 (H=26)
3PROJ-Tremblay20.003582.31.10.700.510.110.110.1 (H=24)10.1 (H=31)