Matchup Analysis: Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Broncos 18, Packers 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense15.0 (-6.8) (28)92 (-16) (20)266 (+16) (15)
Packers Defense9.5 (-12.3) (2)122 (+13) (19)216 (-33) (11)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense15.5 (-6.3) (27)96 (-13) (19)178 (-70) (26)
Broncos Defense20.0 (-1.8) (15)126 (+16) (24)190 (-59) (4)

Broncos Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The committee approach continued in Week 2 for the Broncos backfield with Phillip Lindsay rushing 13 times compared to 11 carries for Royce Freeman while splitting snaps nearly half and half. Freeman was the more productive rusher for the second straight week, gaining more yards than Lindsay despite fewer opportunities. Freeman was actually more productive in the passing game last week as well, which could lead to additional snaps if he can keep up that momentum. As of now, however, this backfield has to be considered a pure committee with as even a split as you will find, making it tough to rely on either running back for a high ceiling fantasy output. What further dampens the upside of this rushing offense is the poor play by their offensive line. Left tackle Garrett Boles gave up numerous pressures while being called for five holding penalties in last week’s game alone. With starting right tackle Ja’Wuan James still sidelined with a knee injury, this offensive line continues to be ranked near the bottom of the league.

The Packers run defense had a tough time against the Vikings, giving up a total of 198 rushing yards and a touchdown. That touchdown was a 75-yard run by Dalvin Cook, who finished with 154 rushing yards from 20 attempts. While Kenny Clark continues to be impressive on the interior of this line, the rest of the Packers defensive interior had a rough time against a very much improved Vikings offensive line last week. Linebacker Blake Martinez had all he could handle but did play well despite the end result as he was picking up after his defensive line being thrown around in the trenches. This Packers defense has the talent to put up a fight against the run, they just did not coalesce in last week’s game. The Broncos subpar offensive line should be expected to struggle in what could be a bounceback performance for a talented Packers defense.

Broncos Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Joe Flacco attempted 50 passes last week--the second-most of any quarterback during Week 2. He completed 70 percent of those passes for 292 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His interception was a costly one coming from the two-yard line as they were on the cusp of scoring, but beyond that misstep, Flacco was improved above what he showed in Week 1. His offensive line is still allowing a high volume of pressures as they are playing very poorly right now, which will put a strain on Flacco’s ability to push the ball downfield as he is accustomed to doing. Emmanuel Sanders was a target-hog last week with 13 targets as he led the team in receiving along with notching that lone receiving touchdown. Sanders now leads the team with seven red zone looks through these first two weeks. Cortland Sutton has seen some scoring opportunities, but he has come up short so far. After a solid opener, Sutton struggled under tight coverage last week. Both Broncos running backs continue to be steadily involved in the passing attack though as Phillip Lindsay has hauled in four receptions in each of the first two games while Royce Freeman surprisingly out-performed Lindsay through the air last week with five receptions for 48 yards.

The Packers defense did a great job against the pass last week as they picked off Kirk Cousins twice while holding him to just 230 yards and a 44 percent completion rate. The Packers cornerbacks have lined up all over the field so far this season, so it is tough to chart a single matchup for most of the game. All three primary cornerbacks have played very well to start the season though, so the Broncos wide receivers will all be in for tough matchups. The one area of opportunity looks to be when Emmanuel Sanders line s up in the slot, as he could find some space against Tramon Williams. The Packers did lose backup safety Raven Greene this past week as Greene landed on the injured reserve list with an ankle injury, but he was only depth behind Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage--both of whom are excellent options to have over the top. On the defensive line, the Packers will have a significant advantage in the trenches due to the struggles of this Broncos offensive line and strength the Packers have both on the interior with Kenny Clark and edges with Za’Darius Smith. Joe Flacco and his supporting case should have a tough time moving the ball in this one unless their ground game can get something going.

Packers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

The Packers employed a run-heavy game script last week as they were protecting a lead for the entire game. This afforded a large workload to Aaron Jones, who rushed 23 times for 116 yards and a touchdown. It also enabled Jamaal Williams to see more work, rushing nine times for 28 yards. While Williams was uninspiring, Matt LaFleur wants to even out the touches between the two running backs which would seem odd for how ineffective Williams was this past week. After a tough outing against the Bears in Week 1, Jones showed he can excel against top run defenses with this big performance against the Vikings. The Packers offensive line also proved they can hang with tough competition as they blocked very well for Jones throughout the afternoon. The only spot to watch will be at left tackle, as David Bakhtiari did look sluggish in pass protection last week, which could be due to lingering back issues that have kept him limited in practice. He is not on the injury report, but keep an eye on it as the outlook of this Packers rushing offense would change with Bakhtiari’s absence.

The Broncos run defense had a bounceback game last week as they held Bears running backs to 71 rushing yards on 25 attempts. While they have allowed three rushing touchdowns to start the season, this defense has been relatively efficient against the run. They are giving up an average of just 3.4 rushing yards per attempt to running backs--ranking them eighth in the league by that metric. Von Miller has led the charge for this defensive line. Despite his struggles rushing the passer, Miller has made a number of big plays against the run. DeMarcus Walker has also looked good on the interior of this line. The Broncos do have some vulnerabilities on the edges and at safety, as their defensive backs have not tackled well to start the season. When runners can get to the edges quickly to force the secondary into making plays, they can find success--as displayed by Cordarrelle Patterson on a 46-yard run to the outside last week. The Packers do have strong run-blocking tackles to match up well against the talented Broncos edge defenders, and Aaron Jones has the speed to quickly make it into the secondary. The Broncos will need their secondary and linebackers to step up in this one, as the Packers get the nod in the trenches.

Packers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Aaron Rodgers got off to a hot start last week with all but 66 of his 209 passing yards coming in the first half. By Rodgers standards, however, it has been a slow start to the season with just 412 passing yards through the first two games. This team has gone up against a couple of very tough defenses, though, so that helps to explain the quiet start. Davante Adams has been the top target in both games for the Packers, and he bounced back with an impressive stat line last week by hauling in seven of nine targets for 106 yards despite tough coverage from Xavier Rhodes. Geronimo Allison was targeted five times and had the only touchdown last week. This was good news after he finished with no targets in Week 1, but Allison did lose a fumble while also getting called for a holding penalty--so he may be on thin ice with the coaching staff. Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw six targets for the second straight week, but he missed out on landing a big play and finished with just 19 yards. That was better than tight end Jimmy Graham, however, as Graham was held without a catch on just two targets despite playing a higher rate of snaps than in Week 1 when he scored a touchdown.

Stats from the Broncos secondary looked great last week, but they were facing off against a struggling Mitchell Trubisky who has been unable to do anything with the Bears passing offense this season. With last week coming as a bit of an outlier, it is tough to get a good read on this Broncos secondary. Kareem Jackson does look to be a very solid addition while Chris Harris Jr. has also looked good to start the season as both players have split time covering the slot. Isaac Yiadom, however, has been an absolute liability on the outside and would be a very exploitable matchup for Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling if he still sees playing time with the possible return of Bryce Callahan. Callahan has been sidelined with a foot injury since joining the Packers from Chicago, but he is hopeful to return this week. The Broncos pass rush has notably fallen far short of expectations to start this season, as they are the only team in the league that has yet to record a sack. That is inexcusable given the talent they have in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The Packers have a talented offensive line that has performed well in pass protection to start the season though, so it will not get easier for the struggling Broncos pass rushers. However, with signs pointing to veteran linebacker Todd Davis also making his season debut from injury this week, that pass rush and coverage in the middle of the field should be improved. Keep a close eye on Friday practice report, as this matchup would be upgraded to Good if Callahan is unable to suit up due to the significant advantage the Packers outside receivers would have over cornerback Isaac Yiadom.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.7)4 (-7.8)3 (-8.1)4 (-8.8)
1Mitchell Trubisky73264522801311011.511.59.29.2
2Kirk Cousins65143223012217015.215.210.911.9

Joe Flacco (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ OAK6421312681011017.517.514.814.8
2vs CHI8235502921100017.617.616.716.7
3PROJ-Dodds23362341.1112015.315.315.3 (H=35)15.3 (H=49)
3PROJ-Tremblay24382551.11.111016.216.216.2 (H=38)16.2 (H=54)
3PROJ-Bloom25412231.3111015.415.415.4 (H=35)15.4 (H=49)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.5)25 (+6.3)25 (+4.6)27 (+7.4)
1Tarik Cohen510001084904.912.98.912.9
1David Montgomery286180112704.
2Dalvin Cook472015413337025.128.126.631.1
2Alexander Mattison8425000002.

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4300)

1@ OAK341143064.02306.610.68.610.6
2vs CHI391336074.03006.610.68.610.6
3PROJ-Dodds11520.33.7270.110.31412.2 (H=23)14.0 (H=44)
3PROJ-Tremblay12570.34.4320.111.315.713.5 (H=28)15.7 (H=54)
3PROJ-Bloom9400.24.0360.19.413.411.4 (H=21)13.4 (H=41)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ OAK301056011.0506.
2vs CHI431154075.048010.215.212.715.2
3PROJ-Dodds12490.32.5180.19.111.610.4 (H=19)11.6 (H=31)
3PROJ-Tremblay11430.32.7210.18.811.510.2 (H=18)11.5 (H=31)
3PROJ-Bloom10450.33.0210.191210.5 (H=19)12.0 (H=33)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-6.0)4 (-10.6)5 (-9.2)4 (-11.1)
1Allen Robinson70137102000010.217.213.720.2
1Taylor Gabriel67522400002.
2Stefon Diggs587149100010.911.99.410.9
2Adam Thielen64857500007.512.510.012.5

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ OAK5775.086100014.619.617.119.6
2vs CHI761311.098100015.826.823.328.8
3PROJ-Dodds5.7690.40009.31512.2 (H=26)15.0 (H=45)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.7730.30009.114.812.0 (H=25)14.8 (H=44)
3PROJ-Bloom7.0670.50009.716.713.2 (H=30)16.7 (H=54)

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ OAK5787.01200000121915.522.0
2vs CHI7874.0400000486.08.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.9540.20006.610.58.6 (H=14)10.5 (H=26)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.1570.20006.9119.0 (H=16)11.0 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0450.30006.310.38.3 (H=13)10.3 (H=25)

DaeSean Hamilton (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ OAK4942.0500000.
2vs CHI5462.01500001.
3PROJ-Dodds2.5240.20003.66.14.9 (H=5)6.1 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.8310.20004.37.15.7 (H=7)7.1 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0100.10001.63.62.6 (H=1)3.6 (H=4)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.2)2 (-8.5)1 (-7.3)2 (-8.7)
1Adam Shaheen3421600.
2Kyle Rudolph6553900.

Noah Fant (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ OAK5242.02902.
2vs CHI5444.03303.
3PROJ-Dodds2.5260. (H=5)5.7 (H=14)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.3240.135.34.2 (H=5)5.3 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=7)6.7 (H=19)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ OAK2100.000000.00.0
2vs CHI3854.02102.
3PROJ-Dodds1.4120. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0130. (H=2)3.9 (H=7)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.8)7 (-2.8)7 (-3.5) (+0.0)
1Eddy Pineiro1100333.03.0
2Dan Bailey1212444.04.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ OAK3411101010.010.0
2vs CHI2200667.07.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-0.3)18T (-0.3)19T (+0.7)19T (+0.7)
1Chicago Bears1021350000559.09.0
2Minnesota Vikings2133520200666.06.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ OAK24.0035700000000.00.0
2vs CHI16.0027300000001.01.0
3PROJ-Dodds25.403732.30.70.500.2666.0 (H=11)6.0 (H=17)
3PROJ-Tremblay25.253772.51.10.600. (H=18)7.8 (H=26)

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-9.1)2 (-9.1)4 (-8.1)3 (-9.3)
1Derek Carr5822262591022017.217.214.614.6
2Mitchell Trubisky611627120001806.

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6100)

1@ CHI64183020310380151512.912.9
2vs MIN7422342092010018.518.514.415.4
3PROJ-Dodds22352601.80.73140.121.521.521.5 (H=51)21.5 (H=66)
3PROJ-Tremblay23382741.81.12120.121.621.621.6 (H=51)21.6 (H=67)
3PROJ-Bloom223023720.92100.120.620.620.6 (H=47)20.6 (H=61)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+2.0)11 (-1.2)19 (+0.6)11 (-1.6)
1Josh Jacobs43238521128023.324.323.824.3
1DeAndre Washington528000000.
2David Montgomery2718621316012.813.813.313.8
2Tarik Cohen23418052702.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6100)

1@ CHI381339011.0003.
2vs MIN4323116164.0340212523.028.0
3PROJ-Dodds17770.52.9220.113.516.415.0 (H=31)16.4 (H=41)
3PROJ-Tremblay15650.53.1240.112.515.614.1 (H=28)15.6 (H=38)
3PROJ-Bloom20910.53.0230.1151816.5 (H=37)18.0 (H=48)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CHI2650022.01501.
2vs MIN35928043.013110.113.111.613.1
3PROJ-Dodds5220.22.4160.15.686.8 (H=10)8.0 (H=18)
3PROJ-Tremblay6250.22.6200. (H=13)8.9 (H=22)
3PROJ-Bloom7240.12.0100. (H=7)6.6 (H=13)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-8.6)2 (-12.7)3 (-10.6)3 (-12.7)
1Tyrell Williams5576105100016.522.519.525.5
1Ryan Grant41431600001.
2Cordarrelle Patterson15000025005.
2Allen Robinson55744100004.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $7600)

1@ CHI6284.03600003.
2vs MIN7197.0106000010.617.614.120.6
3PROJ-Dodds6.2840.700012.618.815.7 (H=28)18.8 (H=42)
3PROJ-Tremblay6.0810.500011.117.114.1 (H=23)17.1 (H=35)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0810.600011.717.714.7 (H=25)17.7 (H=38)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4300)

1@ CHI4264.05201005.
2vs MIN6563.01900001.
3PROJ-Dodds3.7510.30006.910.68.8 (H=16)10.6 (H=27)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.7540.30207.411.19.3 (H=17)11.1 (H=30)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0610.40008.512.510.5 (H=22)12.5 (H=36)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ CHI3200.000000000.00.0
2vs MIN3454.02510008.512.58.511.5
3PROJ-Dodds2.6310.20004.36.95.6 (H=7)6.9 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=7)6.5 (H=10)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0200.30003.86.85.3 (H=6)6.8 (H=11)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)25 (+3.5)21 (+1.9)24 (+3.2)
1Darren Waller58877007.014.010.514.0
2Adam Shaheen21332402.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CHI3563.030191210.512.0
2vs MIN5420.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds3.1350. (H=9)7.8 (H=17)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.0340. (H=9)7.6 (H=16)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=11)8.5 (H=20)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI3432.01401.
2vs MIN3110.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.0120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.4170. (H=4)4.3 (H=10)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI2011.02802.
2vs MIN2200.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.6500.51.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.7)22T (+1.7)26 (+3.5) (+0.0)
1Daniel Carlson1133666.06.0
2Eddy Pineiro3311101015.015.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CHI1111444.04.0
2vs MIN0033333.03.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.3)7T (-2.3)8 (-2.3)8 (-2.3)
1Oakland Raiders1634430000334.04.0
2Chicago Bears1437221000445.05.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ CHI3.00254510007714.014.0
2vs MIN16.00421122009910.010.0
3PROJ-Dodds17.403402.70.90.700.410.310.310.3 (H=25)10.3 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay17.253562.41.10.900.511.411.411.4 (H=30)11.4 (H=39)