Matchup Analysis: Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bears 23, Redskins 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense9.5 (-12.3) (30)100 (-9) (18)164 (-84) (28)
Redskins Defense31.5 (+9.7) (31)168 (+59) (31)287 (+38) (25)

Washington Redskins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Redskins Offense24.0 (+2.2) (10)38 (-71) (30)289 (+40) (10)
Bears Defense12.0 (-9.8) (3)68 (-40) (7)224 (-24) (12)

Bears Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

In week one, the Chicago Bears handed the ball off to running backs just 11 times: 5 times to Mike Davis and 6 times to David Montgomery. In week two, a slightly more productive offensive day, the Bears ran the ball 25 with its running backs: 18 times with David Montgomery, 4 times with Tarik Cohen, and 3 times with Mike Davis. David Montgomery entered the 2019 season as Chicago's expected-leading rusher, but week one put a damper on those expectations. Matt Nagy later came out and said that the Bears were going to be "easing [Montgomery] into" the offense. Montgomery was still only on the field for 44-percent of Chicago's offensive snaps in week two, and Nagy will need to avoid being this run-heavy with Montgomery in the game in the coming weeks, or else he will risk tipping his play-calls. Montgomery's uninspiring share of offensive snaps in the Chicago backfield lend to a genuine "running-back-by-committee" approach from Chicago Bears' offense for the near future. Chicago's offensive line is one of the league's most stable units, returning all five starters from last season, which bodes well for Montgomery and the rest of the Chicago backfield.

The Washington Redskins were thrown into the gauntlet immediately to open the 2019 season. In weeks one and two, the Redskins took on two playoff-hopeful divisional rivals, and in week three they face off with another team with legitimate playoff aspirations in 2019; the Chicago Bears. Washington has struggled mightily against opposing rushing attacks through the first two weeks of the season, allowing at least 123 yards in each game. Washington's 5.2 yards-per-carry allowed to opponents also ranks 25th in the league. Over the offseason, Zach Brown, one of the league's top linebackers in 2018 against the run, left Washington via free agency. The Redskins attempted to fill this hole on the depth chart by signing former-Pittsburgh Steeler Jon Bostic. Unfortunately, Bostic has proven to be a liability against the run throughout his career. This significant downgrade at a critical position, in addition to a week one injury to Jonathan Allen, the team's best interior defensive lineman, have hampered what was otherwise expected to be a league-average run defense. In the meantime, until Allen returns, the Washington Redskins will field a defense devoid of difference-makers against the run, leaving them susceptible to allowing massive rushing performances down the road.

Bears Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Sadly, Mitchell Trubisky has failed to make the third-year jump many had hoped for here in 2019. In week one against the Green Bay Packers, Trubisky threw for just 228 yards on 45 pass attempts, en-route to a 3 point offensive performance for the Bears. Somehow, it got even worse for Chicago in week two with just 120 yards through the air against the Denver Broncos. Trubisky's consistent failures to get the ball out on time and make the throws expected of an NFL starter have hampered Chicago's aerial attack to start the 2019 season. The top two targets in Chicago's offense are evident through two games: wide receiver Allen Robinson and running back Tarik Cohen. Robinson's pure talent as a pass-catcher ensures he will always be a focus of this offense through the air. Trubisky frequently looks his way in the highest-leverage situations throughout the game. Cohen, on the other hand, is an exceptional playmaker after the catch. Head coach and play-caller Matt Nagy consistently involves Cohen in the offense in unconventional ways thanks to his rare ability to make defenders miss. Aside from Robinson and Cohen, tight end, Trey Burton returned to the lineup in week two after missing the season opener with a groin injury. Burton was only able to play 43-percent of snaps in his 2019 debut because of the ailment, but as his health improves, so will his production. Chicago's offensive line has unexpectedly struggled to start the 2019 season. FootballGuys' offensive line analyst, Matt Bitonti, ranks the Bears' front-five as one of the league's best in pass protection, but through two games the results have been poor. Unless Chicago's offensive line rights the ship, their aerial attack will almost certainly continue to struggle. Even if the issues up-front are resolved, Trubisky's lack of development as a passer is cause for concern for the Bears' passing offense.

The first two weeks of the 2019 season have not been kind to the Washington Redskins. Following two bouts with top-tier division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, the Washington Redskins defense ranks amongst the league's worst. The Redskins' defensive front was depleted early in week one against the Philadelphia Eagles, as interior defenders, Caleb Brantley, and Jonathan Allen went down with injuries. The status of both players is in doubt for this week three bout with the Chicago Bears. Allen is certainly an impactful absence from the pass-rush, but even his presence likely would not be enough to bring this unit up to a league-average level. At just 20 total pressures on opposing quarterbacks, the production from the Washington pass-rush ranks 4th-worst in the entire NFL. Additionally, in the secondary, there is little good news to report. Three previously-strong pass defenders in Landon Collins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Josh Norman have all struggled mightily in the opening weeks of the 2019 season. All three players have lengthy resumes as above-average players in coverage. However, the fact that all three players are struggling at the same time, with two still integrating into a new defensive scheme in 2019, may signal a systemic issue in the Washington secondary. The Redskins have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL through two weeks. It would be tough for the Chicago Bears to dream up a better matchup to right the proverbial ship and get the passing offense back on track.

Redskins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Washington's rushing attack has gotten off to an abysmal start to the 2019 season. After losing Derrius Guice to another knee injury in week one, the Redskins once again have to turn towards an aging Adrian Peterson to man the backfield. In week two, without Guice, Adrian Peterson received 59-percent of carries on the day while only playing approximately 31-percent of snaps. Peterson's role in the Washington offense is exclusively on first and second down, but Wendell Smallwood and Chris Thompson poach some of those snaps away from him as well. Thompson has established himself as the Redskins' clear third-down-running-back over the previous years, and he shows no signs of relinquishing this role now. Washington's offensive line will do the team's running backs very few favors throughout the season. As a whole, this unit ranks firmly in the bottom-tier of offensive lines in the NFL. The distribution of snaps and carries in the Washington backfield will vary wildly from week-to-week, and this volatility, coupled with poor offensive line play, is a major red flag.

The Chicago Bears enter this week three matchup with the Washington Redskins on the heels of two impressive defensive performances against the run. Neither the Green Bay Packers nor the Denver Broncos were able to muster more than 90 rushing yards on this stout Chicago Bears defense. On the season, the Bears are allowing opponents to run for a meager 3.0 yards-per-carry, the 6th-best mark in the NFL. Chicago's strength against the run starts on the interior of the defense. Defensive tackles Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman have been two of the best run-stoppers in the NFL over recent seasons. At linebacker, Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan are two of the league's best tacklers at the position, ensuring that when they are there to fill the gaps, running backs are unlikely to reach the next level of the defense. These first two games of the 2019 season are not a blip on the radar, but rather a continuation of a season-long trend from the 2018 season: Chicago's run-defense is arguably the league's best. In 2018, the Bears allowed the fewest rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on the fourth-lowest yards-per-carry in the NFL. In week three, the Washington Redskins will have their work cut out for them with a stable of below-average running backs running behind a below-average offensive line against one of the league's stingiest run defenses.

Redskins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Washington Redskins field one of the league's weakest group of pass-catchers on paper. Terry McLaurin, however, has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise anemic passing attack. The rookie third-round pick from Ohio State has found the end zone in each of his first two NFL starts while commanding at least seven targets in both games. Aside from McLaurin, quarterback Case Keenum has very few options to target down the field. Slot receiver Trey Quinn and running back Chris Thompson make up the majority of Washington's non-McLaurin passing attack. Both Quinn and Thompson, as expected given their respective roles, primarily work close to the line of scrimmage on safe underneath routes. At tight end, Washington will likely be without Jordan Reed once again in week three. Head coach Jay Gruden noted earlier this week that Reed has made no significant progress towards making his 2019 debut in week three against Chicago. In Reed's absence, Vernon Davis should see the majority of snaps at tight end, but he has proven to have little impact on the passing game aside from one impressive play in week one. Washington's offensive line has proven to be almost perfectly-league-average through two weeks, directly in-line with what FootballGuys' Matt Bitonti expected before the season kicked off. As a whole, Washington's passing attack lacks the requisite weapons to qualify as one of the league's better units. The performance of youngster Terry McLaurin, however, has been a pleasant surprise through two weeks.

The Chicago Bears were forced to replace one of the league's best defensive coordinators, Vic Fangio after he accepted an offer to become the head coach for the Denver Broncos. In his place, Chuck Pagano has led the 2019 Chicago Bears to another impressive defensive start to the season, allowing just 12 points per game through 2 weeks. While the defensive metrics, specifically in the secondary, have regressed slightly, the Bears still sport one of the league's deepest defenses at all three levels. The team's leader in the trenches, Khalil Mack, is arguably the league's best pass-rusher. At linebacker, second-year player Roquan Smith impressed both against the run, in pursuit of the quarterback, and in coverage throughout his strong rookie season. And finally, in the secondary, Eddie Jackson exploded onto the scene in 2018 with one of the league's best defensive seasons, regardless of position. In 2019, the Bears added another impressive coverage safety, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, into the mix. Through 2 weeks, the Chicago Bears have only allowed 2 passing touchdowns on 80 pass attempts. While the defense as a whole may not post the league-leading numbers of yesteryear that many thought were unsustainable, Chicago's defense, and specifically it's pass defense, will almost certainly rank amongst the league's best once again in 2019.

Redskins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+8.7)29 (+8.6)29 (+8.7)28 (+8.9)
1Carson Wentz7528393133045028.
2Dak Prescott70263026931569031.431.428.728.7

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs GB73264522801311011.511.59.29.2
2@ DEN611627120001806.
3PROJ-Dodds22332221.40.93160.1181818.0 (H=43)18.0 (H=58)
3PROJ-Tremblay21332131.413140. (H=40)17.2 (H=54)
3PROJ-Bloom22321981.414150. (H=40)17.2 (H=54)

Redskins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.4)13 (-1.1)16 (+0.4)19 (+1.0)
1Darren Sproles239470331606.39.39.811.3
1Jordan Howard176440321105.
2Ezekiel Elliott53231111229018.
2Tony Pollard17422011302.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5200)

1vs GB28618011.02704.
2@ DEN271862131.06012.813.813.313.8
3PROJ-Dodds16610.61.511010.812.311.6 (H=23)12.3 (H=29)
3PROJ-Tremblay15630.51.310010.311.611.0 (H=21)11.6 (H=26)
3PROJ-Bloom17600. (H=22)11.8 (H=27)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs GB51000108.04904.912.98.912.9
2@ DEN23418052.0702.
3PROJ-Dodds3120.15.3360.26.611.99.4 (H=16)12.0 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay3110.14.9360.15.910.88.5 (H=14)10.9 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom3110.15.0280.25.710.78.3 (H=13)10.8 (H=28)

Mike Davis (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs GB41519076.01703.
2@ DEN1531000.0000.
3PROJ-Dodds5190.21.390. (H=7)5.9 (H=13)
3PROJ-Tremblay5220.22.3170.15.786.9 (H=11)8.0 (H=22)
3PROJ-Bloom380.11.0401.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Redskins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+15.3)32 (+18.7)32 (+17.1)31 (+18.7)
1DeSean Jackson5298154200027.435.431.438.4
1Alshon Jeffery607549112117.122.119.622.1
2Devin Smith183374100013.416.414.916.4
2Amari Cooper645444100010.414.412.414.4

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs GB70137.0102000010.217.213.720.2
2@ DEN5574.04100004.
3PROJ-Dodds5.0680.40009.214.211.7 (H=20)14.2 (H=35)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.3590.40008.312.610.5 (H=16)12.6 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0770.500010.716.713.7 (H=26)16.7 (H=46)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs GB6752.02400002.
2@ DEN5321.011011402.
3PROJ-Dodds2.1250.11303.45.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.0220.11403.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=9)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0250.10003.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=9)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs GB1610.000000000.00.0
2@ DEN3211.0200000.
3PROJ-Dodds1.4170.20002.94.33.6 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.3180.200034.33.7 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
3PROJ-Bloom1.080.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs GB2031.0301-
2@ DEN1500.0002500555.05.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.880.121002.43.22.9 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.8110.121102.83.63.3 (H=3)3.7 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0402110. (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs GB2120.000000000.00.0
2@ DEN1800.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Redskins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+2.0)24 (+3.2)25 (+2.6)23 (+2.9)
1Zach Ertz62755405.410.47.910.4
2Jason Witten54442518.512.510.512.5

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs GB000.000000.00.0
2@ DEN2632.0500.
3PROJ-Dodds2.0220. (H=4)4.8 (H=8)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.1120. (H=1)2.9 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=10)7.9 (H=19)

Adam Shaheen (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs GB3421.0600.
2@ DEN2133.02402.
3PROJ-Dodds1.1100. (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.1110. (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)

Ben Braunecker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs GB1000.000000.00.0
2@ DEN1532.02402.
3PROJ-Dodds1.21101.12.31.7 (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Redskins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.2)14T (+0.2)14T (-0.5) (+0.0)
1Jake Elliott1133666.06.0
2Brett Maher1144777.07.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs GB1100333.03.0
2@ DEN3311101015.015.0

Redskins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.8)1 (-4.8)4 (-5.8)4 (-5.8)
1Philadelphia Eagles2739810000111.01.0
2Dallas Cowboys2125510000111.01.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs GB10.0021350000559.09.0
2@ DEN14.0037221000445.05.0
3PROJ-Dodds18.603062.310.700. (H=21)9.6 (H=25)
3PROJ-Tremblay18.753332.10.90.800.5101010.0 (H=22)10.0 (H=27)

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.8)9 (-4.8)9 (-3.3)8 (-4.6)
1Aaron Rodgers6418302031038015.015.012.912.9
2Joe Flacco8235502921100017.617.616.716.7

Case Keenum (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ PHI67304438030000313127.230.2
2vs DAL622637221201-10191916.716.7
3PROJ-Dodds21342191.3113015.415.415.4 (H=33)15.4 (H=48)
3PROJ-Tremblay20332251.30.912015.715.715.7 (H=34)15.7 (H=50)
3PROJ-Bloom213819911000131313.0 (H=24)13.0 (H=36)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-6.8)9 (-6.0)9 (-6.2)9 (-6.4)
1Aaron Jones381339011003.
1Jamaal Williams26500221501.
2Royce Freeman43115407548010.215.212.715.2
2Phillip Lindsay3913360743006.610.68.610.6

Adrian Peterson (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ PHI000000.000000.00.0
2vs DAL181025122.0709.
3PROJ-Dodds14480.41.61008.29.89.0 (H=16)9.8 (H=26)
3PROJ-Tremblay14530.41.51208.910.49.7 (H=18)10.4 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom10310.41.0405.96.96.4 (H=9)6.9 (H=14)

Chris Thompson (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ PHI433100107.06807.814.811.314.8
2vs DAL2823085.04805.110.17.610.1
3PROJ-Dodds4130.15.0390.16.411.48.9 (H=16)11.4 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay3130.15.3410.16.611.99.3 (H=17)11.9 (H=32)
3PROJ-Bloom2505.0430.15.410.47.9 (H=13)10.4 (H=25)

Wendell Smallwood (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ PHI000000.000000.00.0
2vs DAL1614022.0901.
3PROJ-Dodds2500.85011.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay1300.6500.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-8.1)9 (-8.2)9 (-7.1)9 (-8.7)
1Marquez Valdes-Scantling42645201005.
1Davante Adams62843600003.
2Emmanuel Sanders76131198100015.826.823.328.8
2Courtland Sutton78744000004.

Terry McLaurin (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ PHI6275.0125100018.523.521.026.5
2vs DAL5695.062100012.217.214.717.2
3PROJ-Dodds3.8520.3000710.88.9 (H=15)10.8 (H=27)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.6480.30006.610.28.4 (H=13)10.2 (H=24)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0610.40008.513.511.0 (H=22)13.5 (H=40)

Trey Quinn (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ PHI6564.03310009.313.311.313.3
2vs DAL4974.03600003.
3PROJ-Dodds3.2320.20004.47.66.1 (H=8)7.7 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.0390.20005.18.16.7 (H=10)8.2 (H=25)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0340.20004.68.66.7 (H=10)8.7 (H=28)

Paul Richardson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4100)

1@ PHI5274.03600003.
2vs DAL5433.01610007.610.69.110.6
3PROJ-Dodds2.5300.20004.26.75.5 (H=8)6.7 (H=13)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.3310.20004.36.65.5 (H=8)6.6 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0290.20004.17.15.6 (H=8)7.1 (H=14)

Kelvin Harmon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ PHI1522.03100003.
2vs DAL600.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.01100001.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Steven Sims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

2vs DAL511.03031601.
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.23021101.41.61.5 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.8)28 (+5.5)28 (+4.1)28 (+5.2)
1Jimmy Graham35633019.012.010.512.0
2Noah Fant54443303.

Vernon Davis (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ PHI5574.059111.915.913.915.9
2vs DAL4643.02902.
3PROJ-Dodds2.5300. (H=8)6.7 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.1260. (H=6)5.9 (H=13)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0280. (H=6)6.4 (H=15)

Jeremy Sprinkle (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ PHI1411.0800.
2vs DAL2211.01101.
3PROJ-Dodds0.8700.71.51.1 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.3)10T (-1.3)11T (-1.5) (+0.0)
1Mason Crosby1111444.04.0
2Brandon McManus2200667.07.0

Dustin Hopkins (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ PHI22339911.011.0
2vs DAL0033333.03.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.3)7T (-2.3)19T (+0.7)19T (+0.7)
1Green Bay Packers3254510007714.014.0
2Denver Broncos1627300000001.01.0

Washington Redskins (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ PHI32.0043610000110.00.0
2vs DAL31.0047411000332.02.0
3PROJ-Dodds22.703472.20.90.600. (H=22)8.1 (H=28)
3PROJ-Tremblay22.753372.210.700. (H=23)8.5 (H=31)