Matchup Analysis: Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Falcons 23, Colts 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Atlanta Falcons Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Falcons Offense18.0 (-3.8) (23)65 (-43) (28)291 (+42) (9)
Colts Defense23.5 (+1.7) (21)124 (+15) (20)214 (-34) (10)

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense21.5 (-0.3) (14)185 (+76) (2)147 (-101) (32)
Falcons Defense24.0 (+2.2) (22)110 (+1) (16)167 (-81) (1)

Falcons Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Falcons ground game continues to be stuck in neutral as they managed only 57 rushing yards in Week 2 against the Eagles. While they have faced stout run defenses in the Vikings and Eagles, this lack of production is certainly a mounting concern. After a 50-50 split of snaps in Week 1, Devonta Freeman saw 62 percent of the snaps last week compared to 38 percent from Ito Smith. However, Freeman only managed 22 yards from his 11 carries compared to Smith looking good with 32 yards from just four attempts. Smith has now out-produced Freemen in both games despite seeing a smaller workload. While the increased snap share and favorable workload look good for Freeman, he will need to improve his play to fend off momentum from Ito Smith to eat into his volume of carries. It did not help that the Falcons lost starting right guard Chris Lindstrom in Week 1, but to further their concerns, right tackle Kaleb McGary was carted off from last week’s game with an apparent knee injury. He did return to the game as a spectacular show of toughness, but his health is worth monitoring as the Falcons can’t afford to lose another piece of an already shaky offensive line.

The Colts defense, overall, looked improved in their Week 2 win over the Titans. The defensive backs chipped in to help limit big plays while linebacker Darius Leonard returned to good form with a bounceback performance from struggling in Week 1. Leonard, however, was placed into the concussion protocol after last week’s game and is questionable coming into this week. The absence of Leonard would create a massive disadvantage for the Colts run defense, so definitely keep an eye on his status as he must complete the protocol in order to play on Sunday. This defensive line remains without the services of Jabaal Sheard, who continues to practice on a very limited basis and will remain questionable coming into Week 3. In addition to Sheard, defensive end Kemoko Turay is battling a neck injury that sidelined him in Week 2. While Turay may not be an every-down starter, he looked great before the injury in Week 1. Justin Houston continues to play well, but the interior of this Colts line has still struggled. Derrick Henry started to wear them down last week, particularly on their left side where Sheard would normally line up. The Falcons offensive line should be a relatively even match here, but as long as Leonard is cleared and suits up, the Colts defense should have a slight advantage on the ground.

Falcons Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Matt Ryan has led a pass-heavy Falcons offense to 624 passing yards from 89 pass attempts--tied for third-most attempts in the league through Week 2. He has been far from efficient with this high volume though, as Ryan has started out with five interceptions to go along with his five touchdowns--including three of each last week. The offensive line did a better job protecting Ryan last week, but the potential injury to right tackle Kaleb McGary is not an encouraging sign for an offensive line already down one starter. Ryan fed his stud receivers handily last week as both Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones were targeted 10 times, finishing with over 100 receiving yards and at least one touchdown apiece. Last week was a nice bounceback for Jones after being held to just 31 yards in Week 1. Ridley has been more consistent to start the season, finishing with at least 60 yards and a touchdown in both games while converting 75 percent of his targets compared to Jones hauling in just 52 percent of his volume. Mohamed Sanu remains involved, but his contributions are inconsistent from the slot. Austin Hooper saw a drop in volume last week after leading the team in receptions for Week 1, but Devonta Freeman has seen consistent targets despite his slow start rushing the ball.

A couple of key injuries threaten to have a significant impact on the Colts defense this week. Top cornerback Pierre Desir suffered a bone bruise in his knee last week and is expected to miss playing time. In addition, All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard was placed in the concussion protocol after last week’s game and could be at risk of not clearing prior to Sunday. With Desir missing and rookie Rock Ya-Sin on the other side, both outside Falcons receivers Ridley and Jones should have a much easier path to success in this matchup. From the slot, the Falcons gave up a big game to Keenan Allen in Week 1, showing Kenny Moore can also be vulnerable in coverage. But Mohammed Sanu is far from the talent level of Allen, so it will be a much more even matchup in this one. With or without Leonard, this Colts linebacker group has not looked sharp in pass coverage. They haven’t given up much production to running backs, but opposing offenses have not tried to target the position very heavily. Having Leonard is certainly a big plus, but Devonta Freeman could still find space on a few screens this week. Tight end Austin Hooper will not be in a good spot, however, as coverage from the Falcons Colts has been relatively strong.

Colts Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

The Colts finished with a flashy 167 rushing yards against the Titans last week as they very intentionally tried to establish the run with 34 rushing plays. The stat line presents an inflated view of their success, as the Colts running backs struggled for most of that game. Marlon Mack averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt on 20 carries with a long run of only 10 yards. Jordan Wilkins found a hole on a well-blocked play in the fourth quarter to get loose for a 55-yard run on his way to 82 rushing yards from five carries. This impressive performance from Wilkins may eat into Mack’s snaps, but not by much as Mack still should be considered the de factor lead runner in what will be a run-heavy offense. The guards continue to play well on this top-tier offensive line for Indianapolis. Quinten Nelsen had another great game last week and should help pave the way for a bounce-back week for Marlon Mack.

The Falcons have started the season about as inconsistently as possible against the run. After getting embarrassed by the Vikings running backs to the tune of 178 rushing yards and two touchdowns, this Falcons front seven puts on a show against one of the league’s best offensive lines, holding Eagles running backs to just 46 rushing yards from 18 attempts. While there is a considerable gap in talent from Dalvin Cook to the likes of rookie Miles Sanders, the way this Falcons defensive line pushed around the Eagles offensive line was significantly noticeable. Grady Jarrett and Tyeler Davison were spectacular last week while Takkarist McKinley and Vic Beasley Jr also made much-improved contributions against the run. The secondary still has room for improvement against the run, as safety Ricardo Allen is not living up to expectations he set as a solid run-stopper from last season. Looking at the trenches, this should be an intriguing matchup with Grady Jarrett squaring off against talented left guard Quenton Nelson. The Colts offensive line should be able to hold its own on paper, but based on the variance displayed from the Falcons defense through two games, this matchup could go either way.

Colts Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Jacoby Brissett has led an inconsistent Colts passing offense by racking up five passing touchdowns despite posting passing yard totals of just 190 and 146 yards in his first two games. This Colts offense is leaning heavily on their ground game, which will continue to limit the volume for a Brissett-led passing offense. Brissett has been effective from short range, but he has missed some opportunities downfield while struggling with his intermediate-to-deep ball accuracy. T.Y. Hilton has been just fine with Brissett under center though, as Hilton has been the recipient of three of those five passing touchdowns while leading the team in targets with triple the looks of any other Colts wide receiver. Eric Ebron has played about 25 percent fewer snaps than Jack Doyle in each of the first two games, but he has seen a red-zone look in both games and converted one for a touchdown last week. Both tight ends have seen limited opportunities to start the season, and there is little reason to believe their volume will spike.

Atlanta’s defense looked very sharp against the Eagles last week as they rattled Carson Wentz for three sacks while picking him off twice. Falcons pass rushers were strong as their defensive end duo of Takkarist McKinley and Vic Beasley Jr. got to the Eagles quarterback five times with Beasley registering one sack--an impressive feat against the stout Eagles offensive line. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has had an impressive start to the season as well, notching a sack in each outing as he has dominated his matchup in back-to-back weeks. Despite this success, however, the Colts have a very strong offensive line that should have a good shot at withstanding this pressure to give Brissett adequate time. Colts receivers should be expected to have a tough time though, as the Falcons secondary has a ton of talent both at cornerback and safety. T.Y. Hilton will see plenty of coverage from Desmond Trufant on the outside, however, he should have the opportunity for a mismatch when lined up in the slot. Slot cornerbacks for the Falcons have given up a touchdown to opposing slot receivers in back-to-back weeks.

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.5)21 (+1.0)22 (+1.2)
1Philip Rivers6425343333116028.328.324.927.9
2Marcus Mariota60192815410532014.914.913.413.4

Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $5700)

1@ MIN78334630422224023.623.620.623.6
2vs PHI6627433203323025.325.322.125.1
3PROJ-Dodds25382781.81.1270.121.321.321.3 (H=51)21.3 (H=70)
3PROJ-Tremblay24392741.61.3150.119.919.919.9 (H=45)19.9 (H=62)
3PROJ-Bloom24372612.11.5250.1212121.0 (H=50)21.0 (H=68)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+10.4)31 (+10.2)30 (+10.5)30 (+9.8)
1Austin Ekeler48125817696233.439.436.439.4
1Justin Jackson16657031406.
2Derrick Henry30158113212015.317.316.317.3
2Dion Lewis3039011501.

Devonta Freeman (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ MIN39819043.01203.
2vs PHI411122043.04206.
3PROJ-Dodds12470.32.9200.19.11210.6 (H=19)12.0 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay12480.32.8210.19.312.110.7 (H=19)12.1 (H=30)
3PROJ-Bloom11300.33.0220.17.610.69.1 (H=14)10.6 (H=24)

Ito Smith (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ MIN39631011.090454.55.0
2vs PHI25432032.01304.
3PROJ-Dodds8320.21.61105.57.16.3 (H=9)7.1 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay6230.21.51004.565.3 (H=6)6.0 (H=12)
3PROJ-Bloom8300.32.0140. (H=13)8.8 (H=23)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-8.2)6 (-9.3)6 (-8.7)6 (-9.3)
1Keenan Allen53108123100018.326.322.329.3
1Mike Williams41322900002.
2Corey Davis50533800003.
2A.J. Brown27532500002.

Julio Jones (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7300)

1@ MIN53116.03110009.
2vs PHI54105.0106200022.627.625.130.6
3PROJ-Dodds6.4900.50001218.415.2 (H=26)18.4 (H=42)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.9770.500010.716.613.6 (H=22)16.6 (H=35)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0830.700012.518.515.5 (H=27)18.5 (H=42)

Calvin Ridley (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ MIN6164.064100012.416.414.416.4
2vs PHI42108.0105100016.524.520.527.5
3PROJ-Dodds4.3600.5000913.311.2 (H=20)13.3 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.0540.30007.211.29.2 (H=14)11.2 (H=24)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0760.700011.816.814.3 (H=30)16.8 (H=50)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ MIN6665.05700005.710.78.210.7
2vs PHI5574.01600001.
3PROJ-Dodds3.7390.20005.18.87.0 (H=10)8.8 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.5440.20005.69.17.4 (H=12)9.1 (H=23)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0310.30004.98.96.9 (H=10)8.9 (H=22)

Justin Hardy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIN2254.04100004.
2vs PHI1110.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.0100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.3150.10002.13.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Russell Gage (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIN1321.01301-
2vs PHI910.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.9900000.91.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.790.11301.82.52.2 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.7)15 (-2.0)15 (-1.9)15 (-2.3)
1Hunter Henry58546006.
2Delanie Walker34643903.

Austin Hooper (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ MIN6299.07707.716.712.216.7
2vs PHI5064.03403.
3PROJ-Dodds4.4400.35.810.28.0 (H=12)10.2 (H=31)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.2380. (H=11)9.8 (H=28)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0350. (H=9)8.7 (H=23)

Luke Stocker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ MIN2210.000000.00.0
2vs PHI3011.0400.
3PROJ-Dodds0.8500.51.30.9 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.8)5T (-3.8)5T (-4.0) (+0.0)
1Mike Badgley0000000.00.0
2Cairo Santos1222556.06.0

Matt Bryant (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ MIN0000000.00.0
2vs PHI1233668.08.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.3)9T (-1.8)9T (-1.8)
1Los Angeles Chargers2437620000222.02.0
2Tennessee Titans1928831100778.08.0

Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ MIN28.0026910000110.00.0
2vs PHI20.00286321009910.010.0
3PROJ-Dodds24.903692.20.80.500. (H=14)6.7 (H=17)
3PROJ-Tremblay24.503812.510.600. (H=20)8.4 (H=25)

Falcons vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.9)12 (-2.9)17 (-0.7)14 (-2.0)
1Kirk Cousins53810981064115.315.314.314.3
2Carson Wentz7525432311233119.919.919.519.5

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ LAC6321271902039018.418.416.516.5
2@ TEN72172814631725020.820.817.318.3
3PROJ-Dodds22332291.60.84150.219.819.819.8 (H=51)19.8 (H=67)
3PROJ-Tremblay23382581.614180.221.321.321.3 (H=58)21.3 (H=76)
3PROJ-Bloom17261531.60.55170.115.915.915.9 (H=35)15.9 (H=46)

Falcons vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)15 (-0.8)11 (-1.1)16 (-0.2)
1Dalvin Cook36211112229024.
1Alexander Mattison12949000004.
2Miles Sanders351028043903.
2Jordan Howard18818011802.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5800)

1@ LAC4825174100.00023.423.425.428.4
2@ TEN492051032.01206.
3PROJ-Dodds18820.52.014012.614.613.6 (H=26)14.6 (H=35)
3PROJ-Tremblay17780.51.713012.113.813.0 (H=24)13.8 (H=32)
3PROJ-Bloom20830.51.06011.912.912.4 (H=22)12.9 (H=28)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ LAC17413044.0401.
2@ TEN1429021.0501.
3PROJ-Dodds3120.12.1140. (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
3PROJ-Tremblay2100.12.6190. (H=7)6.7 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom2802.0110. (H=3)4.5 (H=7)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ LAC000000.000000.00.0
2@ TEN11582011.0408.
3PROJ-Dodds4200.10.0002.62.62.6 (H=2)2.6 (H=2)
3PROJ-Tremblay3150.10.9602.73.63.2 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom4230.10.0002.92.92.9 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)

Falcons vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-6.1)7 (-9.2)8 (-7.5)8 (-9.2)
1Adam Thielen473343100010.313.311.813.3
1Stefon Diggs32223700003.
2Nelson Agholor78118107100016.724.720.727.7
2Mack Hollins69855000005.010.07.510.0

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6400)

1@ LAC5698.087200020.728.724.728.7
2@ TEN6564.043100010.314.312.314.3
3PROJ-Dodds5.9780.500010.816.713.8 (H=25)16.7 (H=40)
3PROJ-Tremblay6.4850.600012.118.515.3 (H=30)18.5 (H=48)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0610.700010.316.313.3 (H=23)16.3 (H=39)

Deon Cain (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ LAC1122.03500003.
2@ TEN3310.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.8220.10002.84.63.7 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.10002.84.43.6 (H=4)4.4 (H=8)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0250.20003.75.74.7 (H=6)5.7 (H=13)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ LAC2500.000000000.00.0
2@ TEN2943.02400002.
3PROJ-Dodds2.1210.10002.74.83.8 (H=4)4.9 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.3250.10003.15.44.3 (H=5)5.5 (H=11)

Parris Campbell (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ LAC1811.0101700.
2@ TEN1811.01210007.
3PROJ-Dodds1.5170.10002.33.83.1 (H=2)3.9 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.102034.63.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=7)
3PROJ-Bloom1.060.11701.92.92.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Falcons vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.3)10 (-4.1)13T (-2.7)13 (-3.3)
1Irv Smith2600000.
2Zach Ertz811687207.

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ LAC2531.0800.
2@ TEN3443.02518.511.510.011.5
3PROJ-Dodds3.0310. (H=8)7.9 (H=18)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.0330. (H=9)8.1 (H=19)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0230. (H=8)7.7 (H=18)

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ LAC4321.0200232.53.0
2@ TEN5132.02102.
3PROJ-Dodds2.7240. (H=6)6.3 (H=16)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.3230. (H=5)5.8 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=3)4.7 (H=9)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ LAC1311.0300.
2@ TEN2410.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Falcons vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.3)10T (-1.3)11T (-1.5) (+0.0)
1Dan Bailey0044444.04.0
2Jake Elliott2200667.07.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ LAC1312445.05.0
2@ TEN0013111.01.0

Falcons vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+2.7)27T (+2.7)28 (+3.7)28 (+3.7)
1Minnesota Vikings1234542100101014.014.0
2Philadelphia Eagles2436713000777.07.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ LAC30.0043541100887.07.0
2@ TEN17.0024240000445.05.0
3PROJ-Dodds22.303742.30.90.600. (H=22)8.4 (H=28)
3PROJ-Tremblay22.503532.51.30.700. (H=27)9.6 (H=35)