Matchup Analysis: San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: 49ers 22, Bengals 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

San Francisco 49ers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
49ers Offense31.0 (+6.8) (7)98 (-10) (19)158 (-105) (30)
Bengals Defense21.0 (-3.2) (13)72 (-36) (8)161 (-102) (4)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense20.0 (-4.2) (21)34 (-74) (29)395 (+131) (2)
49ers Defense17.0 (-7.2) (9)121 (+13) (20)174 (-89) (7)

49ers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense boasts a stout reputation for its effects on runners. And for the time being, that efficiency should concentrate mostly within a clear-cut lead back. With Tevin Coleman out of commission, Matt Breida will spearhead the attack. Breida never found his footing last week, but he’s been one of the league’s most dynamic runners since last season, with a 5.1-yard average over 15 games. He won’t flat-out dominate the backfield, though he’ll likely take on 60% or better of the rushing opportunities. The team will rotate in journeyman Raheem Mostert, who has established himself as an explosive rotational back in Shanahan’s system. He’s generated 7.0 yards per rush dating back to last year. Both backs will work behind a solid line, and within a scheme that’s long brought success to its runners. As such, both offer some degree of standalone flex value against the Bengals’ weak run defense.

Surprisingly, the Bengals opened the year by thoroughly stifling the Seahawks’ imposing run game. Seattle runners totaled just 72 yards on their 25 rushes, with 29% of that production coming on a single play. Last season was disastrous for this unit, but there are pieces in place that could make it less attractive to face in fantasy matchups. On running downs, nose Andrew Billings does a solid job of occupying blockers at the line. And linebacker Nick Vigil, who racked up seven tackles on opening day, tends to capitalize nicely; he’s one of football’s more dependable tacklers in the box. A solid safety duo is in place to help when runners do crack the second level. There will likely be inconsistency all year, as this probably hasn’t become a shutdown unit overnight. But Week 1 did represent a noticeable step forward.

49ers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action after a 12-month recovery, and didn’t inspire much confidence in doing so. He followed up a shaky preseason with a thoroughly ineffective opener, posting just 6.1 yards per attempt and a single touchdown. Garoppolo struggled to connect consistently with any of his wideouts; only tight end George Kittle topped 40 yards. To be fair, Garoppolo did have two touchdown passes negated by penalties. He’s clearly still working off rust, but his floor and ceiling both remain mysterious. With no track record to speak of, there is no clear set of expectations. Without question, though, he’ll need his playmakers to step up if he’s to find any 2019 success. The trio of Deebo Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, and Dante Pettis failed to create much separation - and Garoppolo misfired several times that they did. At least Kittle carried over He caught 8 of his 10 targets, and both those negated touchdown throws had gone to him. Garoppolo may still be an unwritten book, but Kittle is clearly gifted enough to spin fantasy gold regardless.

It’s surprising how beatable the Bengals pass defense has been since last season. The team boasts a solid set of starting cornerbacks in William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, after all. And the pass rush, which took down Russell Wilson on 4 of his 24 dropbacks, remains underrated. Still, taken as a whole, this is one football’s least cohesive secondaries, and receivers have little trouble splitting them down the field. Wilson posted a prolific 9.8 yards per attempt in Week 1, hitting on most of his downfield throws with relative ease. Most egregious was Tyler Lockett’s 44-yard touchdown, on which the slot receiver jogged through an unmanned deep secondary and into the end zone. Last year, these Bengals allowed the league’s fourth-most net yards per attempt and third-highest touchdown rate, and this year’s iteration looks no different. Jackson and Kirkpatrick can win matchups on the outside, but the holes elsewhere are easy for offenses to exploit.

Bengals Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

Lead back Joe Mixon has been diagnosed with an ankle sprain, and while the severity isn’t yet known, he’ll likely sit this game out. It’s a blow to the Bengals, for sure, though they’re fairly comfortable with Giovani Bernard in the driver’s seat for a few games at a time. Bernard isn’t built for a bell-cow role; when Mixon went down last week, the team quickly shifted to pass-first mode despite holding a second-half lead. But he’s still a quick, instinctive runner who’s efficient when given usage. Over the past 2+ seasons, he’s averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 49 per game when starting in relief. Like Mixon’s, his nimble feet are capable of mitigating the Bengals’ shaky offensive line. Even with Cordy Glenn in the lineup, there’s a startling lack of run-blocking talent upfront. The Bengals will look to get Bernard into space and evading open-field tacklers as much as possible. Mixon is more talented and will be missed, but history tells us it can be done.

Throughout a miserable 2018, the 49ers’ primary strength was a stout run defense that finished seventh on a per-carry basis. But the unit struggled on opening day, allowing several chunk runs to the Buccaneers’ ho-hum attack. Ronald Jones II, who averaged just 1.9 yards per rush as a rookie, picked up 5 yards or more on 8 of his 13 attempts. Still, it’s too early to conclude this strong, talented unit. DeForest Buckner is a true building block along the line, while rookie Nick Bosa announced his NFL presence with a few notable plays in run defense. Their pressure upfront - along with help from run-stuffing safety Jaquiski Tartt - goes a long way in making up for a mediocre group of linebackers. There will be better days ahead for this crew, and the Bengals’ shaky, the beaten-up line makes for a great opportunity to get on track.

Bengals Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

In his first game under new coach Zac Taylor, Andy Dalton brought encouraging returns. He threw for 418 yards and 2 touchdowns, succeeding against the Seattle defense in several ways. For most of the game, Dalton stuck to short, quick-hitting throws to mitigate the Bengals’ shaky line. He and slot specialist Tyler Boyd carried over their bond from 2018, connecting on 8 of their 11 targets, mostly over the middle. But when he looked at John Ross’ way deep, the results were fantastic. On the day, Ross shattered his career achievements with 7 receptions, 158 yards, and 2 scores. He routinely won with his speed and open-field dynamism as the Bengals surprisingly schemed the ball to him throughout the game. Ross certainly stormed onto the NFL scene Sunday, though that kind of usage may not become a weekly thing. On a day in which he threw 51 passes, Dalton spread the ball to 8 different targets, and Ross did drop a few throws. For the Bengals to have any deep-ball success going forward, they’ll need to keep Dalton upright. Cordy Glenn could return to the left tackle spot this weekend or perhaps shuffle inside to help the run game. In any event, when he does return, he’ll serve as the team’s best all-around blocker by a mile.

The San Francisco pass defense entered 2019 in search of a playmaking identity. And after recording just 2 interceptions through all of 2018 - the lowest total in league history - they capitalized on Jameis Winston’s erratic arm to beat that total on opening day. They even returned two for touchdowns, including the game-sealer with 2:10 to play. The coverage unit looked strong all game, with Richard Sherman and company keeping Mike Evans (28 yards on 5 targets), Chris Godwin (53 on 6), and O.J. Howard (32 on 5) from making much impact. The key factor may have been the retooled pass rush, as new additions Dee Ford and Nick Bosa practically lived in the Tampa Bay backfield. If Week 1 was any indicator, the 49ers are prepared to take a huge step forward from last year’s permissive unit.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-3.9)15 (-4.0)16 (-2.8)15 (-4.3)
1Russell Wilson5314201962048018.618.616.616.6

Jimmy Garoppolo (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6000)

1@ TB681827166112-2011.111.111.411.4
2PROJ-Dodds23322621.51250. (H=47)19.2 (H=55)
2PROJ-Tremblay20322371.41240.117.417.417.4 (H=40)17.4 (H=46)
2PROJ-Bloom19312231.6111016.716.716.7 (H=37)16.7 (H=43)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+3.2)20 (+3.7)18T (+1.4)20 (+2.1)
1Chris Carson41154617635120.
1Rashaad Penny14618000001.

Matt Breida (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ TB301537010.0003.
2PROJ-Dodds15650.52.9230.112.415.313.9 (H=34)15.3 (H=43)
2PROJ-Tremblay13620.31.1908.9109.5 (H=17)10.0 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom15650.52.0140.111.513.512.5 (H=28)13.5 (H=34)

Raheem Mostert (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ TB20940011.000454.55.0
2PROJ-Dodds9420.21.2806.27.46.8 (H=9)7.4 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay8370.21.1805.76.86.3 (H=8)6.8 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom13570.41.0608.79.79.2 (H=16)9.7 (H=26)

Jeff Wilson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $--)

2PROJ-Dodds3120.11.0702.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5
2PROJ-Tremblay3110.11.1802.53.63.1 (H=3)3.6

Kyle Juszczyk (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ TB3200000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2701.0901.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay31101.11002.13.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-7.2)8 (-15.6)9 (-11.2)7 (-17.3)
1Tyler Lockett482144100010.411.410.911.4
1DK Metcalf41648900008.912.910.912.9

Marquise Goodwin (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ TB5031.0700000.
2PROJ-Dodds2.5350.20004.77.26.0 (H=8)7.2 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.9270.20003.95.84.9 (H=6)5.8 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0430.30006.19.17.6 (H=12)9.1 (H=20)

Deebo Samuel (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ TB6033.01700001.
2PROJ-Dodds2.9330.20004.57.46.0 (H=9)7.4 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.9240.20003.65.54.6 (H=5)5.5 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0420.30006108.0 (H=14)10.0 (H=29)

Dante Pettis (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ TB211.0700000.
2PROJ-Dodds1.7250.20003.75.44.6 (H=5)5.4 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.3190.10002.53.83.2 (H=2)3.8 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=2)

Kendrick Bourne (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ TB1731.0900000.
2PROJ-Dodds1.5180.10002.43.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0240.20003.65.64.6 (H=6)5.6 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom1.080.10001.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Richie James (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ TB2621.03910009.910.910.410.9
2PROJ-Dodds1.0120.10001.82.82.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10002.23.42.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.6)9 (-6.6)9 (-5.6)9 (-6.9)
1Nick Vannett24221601.

George Kittle (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6800)

1@ TB62108.05405.413.49.413.4
2PROJ-Dodds6.3850.511.517.814.6 (H=29)17.8 (H=43)
2PROJ-Tremblay7.0910.512.119.115.6 (H=32)19.1 (H=48)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0830.611.917.914.9 (H=30)17.9 (H=43)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.8)5T (-3.8)5T (-4.5) (+0.0)
1Jason Myers0033333.03.0

Robbie Gould (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ TB3422111112.012.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+4.9)28T (+4.9)25T (+5.2)25T (+5.2)
1Seattle Seahawks2042950300111112.012.0

San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ TB17.0029533102232327.027.0
2PROJ-Dodds24.703722.61.10.600. (H=22)8.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.253532.41.10.700. (H=23)8.9 (H=31)

49ers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-10.5)4 (-10.6)3 (-9.4)3 (-10.9)
1Jameis Winston70203619413513012.

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5400)

1@ SEA7735514182000028.928.920.725.7
2PROJ-Dodds22372491.60.915018.518.518.5 (H=44)18.5 (H=58)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362541.71.100018.418.418.4 (H=43)18.4 (H=57)
2PROJ-Bloom26392551.50.7260.119.319.319.3 (H=47)19.3 (H=62)

49ers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.6)16 (-0.1)16T (-0.9)16 (-0.7)
1Ronald Jones II2213750111809.310.39.810.3
1Peyton Barber258330421204.

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ SEA48721032.04206.
2PROJ-Dodds16640.52.5190.111.914.413.2 (H=30)14.4 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay12470.42.21608.710.99.8 (H=18)10.9 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom9380.32.0160. (H=15)9.8 (H=19)

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6500)

1@ SEA29610032.0701.
2PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay10430.32.2160.18.310.59.4 (H=12)10.5 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom13550.53.0220.111.314.312.8 (H=22)14.3 (H=30)

49ers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-11.4)5 (-17.8)7 (-14.4)5 (-19.5)
1Chris Godwin646353100011.314.312.814.3
1Mike Evans60522800002.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $6500)

1@ SEA61118.06001306.314.310.314.3
2PROJ-Dodds4.8650.41509.414.211.8 (H=22)14.2 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.7640.42909.714.412.1 (H=23)14.4 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0570.30007.513.510.5 (H=18)13.5 (H=27)

John Ross (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ SEA63127.0158200027.834.831.337.8
2PROJ-Dodds3.8510.40007.511.39.4 (H=15)11.3 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.7460.4000710.78.9 (H=13)10.7 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0620.50009.213.211.2 (H=20)13.2 (H=37)

Damion Willis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ SEA6953.0300000364.56.0
2PROJ-Dodds2.3280.200046.35.2 (H=7)6.3 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.1280.200046.15.1 (H=7)6.1 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0220.10002.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=9)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ SEA1144.02800002.
2PROJ-Dodds1.8170.10002.34.13.3 (H=3)4.2 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.7200.10002.64.33.6 (H=4)4.4 (H=8)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0160.10002.24.23.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=7)

49ers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-3.4)15 (-2.4)11T (-4.9)15 (-3.7)
1O.J. Howard55543203.

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ SEA3865.02702.
2PROJ-Dodds3.0320. (H=8)7.4 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.2360. (H=11)8.6 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0250. (H=8)7.7 (H=23)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ SEA5454.06606.610.68.610.6
2PROJ-Dodds2.5270. (H=7)6.4 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6270. (H=7)6.5 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0350. (H=8)7.1 (H=21)

49ers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-1.8)13T (-1.8)11T (-2.5) (+0.0)
1Matt Gay1122555.05.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ SEA2322888.08.0

49ers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+4.9)28T (+4.9)25T (+5.2)25T (+5.2)
1Tampa Bay Buccaneers3125611101111112.012.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ SEA21.0023340100666.06.0
2PROJ-Dodds23.604042.61.10.700. (H=22)8.9 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay21.753622.110.700. (H=21)8.6 (H=31)