Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 33, Dolphins 15

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense33.0 (+8.8) (5)99 (-9) (18)366 (+102) (6)
Dolphins Defense59.0 (+34.8) (32)265 (+157) (32)378 (+114) (30)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense10.0 (-14.2) (30)21 (-87) (32)179 (-84) (25)
Patriots Defense3.0 (-21.2) (2)32 (-76) (3)276 (+12) (20)

Patriots Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

As great as the Patriots were through the air against the Steelers, they struggled on the ground. Sony Michel had a hard time getting going as he had just 15 yards on 14 carries and there was seemingly little room for the second-year running back to get going. Backup running back, Rex Burkhead was the sole bright spot for the Patriots rushing attack this week as he was able to rush for 44 yards on just 8 carries albeit most of which was when the game was out of hand. Along the offensive line, the Patriots are a bit of a mess, the team is missing center David Andrews who was placed on IR with blood clots, and right tackle Marcus Cannon left the game with a shoulder injury that is expected to keep him out for a while. offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia likely has his hands full with this unit, but he is the best in the business and it remains to be seen how the team will replace Cannon as last week they moved left guard Joe Thuney to right tackle and Jermaine Eluemunor moved to left guard who had been with the team for just 11 days. The other option would be to keep Thuney at guard and start Korey Cunningham who was inactive last week as he did start six games last season with the Cardinals. Either way, itís not a great situation in New England along the offensive line.

Miamiís defense looks like it has given up before the season has even started. The Ravens essentially did whatever they wanted last week and the Dolphins had no resistance to the Ravens attack. Baltimore ran the ball 46 times for 265 yards in the blowout win last week, and the linebacker concerns that we had before the season rang true as Jerome Baker, Raekwon McMillan, and Sam Eguavoen all struggled. The teamís highest-paid player, Reshad Jones appears to have fallen out of favor in Miami as he played just 44% of the teamís snaps and was taken out on several key plays in this game. Along the defensive line, Christian Wilkins was the lone bright spot as he anchored the defensive line and showing his quickness off the ball which is why the Dolphins selected him in the first round. Brian Flores has a significant challenge heading into this game facing his former team in the Patriots that are looking to establish the offensive line and their running game after struggling in Week 1.

Patriots Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

The Patriots did whatever they wanted last week through the air against the Steelers as they threw for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game in which was out of hand by halftime. Tom Brady at age 42 is showing no signs of slowing down as the team was able to show that even without Rob Gronkowski the team was able to move the ball with a combination of their wide receivers in Phillip Dorsett, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and their running backs in James White and Rex Burkhead. One interesting thing to note here is that Sony Michel who all offseason we heard was improving as a pass receiver did not see a target this week. For how efficient the team was last week, they might be even more so going forward as they acquired Antonio Brown from the Raiders and while pending rape charges came out on Tuesday night, keep an eye on if the NFL reacts to those reports. Adding Brown to an already deep receiving group is going to give defensive coordinators headaches throughout the season and is in contention to be a historic wide receiving core with Brown, Gordon, and Edelman.

The Dolphins secondary might have put on one of the worst performances we have seen in quite some time last week against the Ravens as Lamar Jackson completed 85% of his passes for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns. Wide receivers were frequently wide open for a high school quarterback let alone an NFL quarterback, and the Dolphins seemingly had no answer at either safety or corner to slow down the Ravens. With reports coming out of Miami that several players requested trades, it remains to be seen how motivated this group is for this season. There still is talent in this group with Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick at corner, but with little to no pass rush, and with the safeties being a mess in Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain. McCain who is moving from slot corner to free safety looked as if he has a ways to go to complete this transition. Expect the Patriots to move the ball just about however they want against this Dolphins team that is lacking in talent and potentially motivation heading into this game.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Dolphins rushing offense never had a chance last week against the Ravens as they went down 21-0 after they had run just 9 total plays on offense. Kalen Ballage and Kenyan Drake combined for nine total carries this week in a game that the Dolphins just failed to get anything going on either side of the ball. Do not expect things to get significantly better in the short-term as a combination of game scripts and a poor offensive line will likely lead to struggles for this rushing offense for most of the year. Even before the Laremy Tunsil trade, offensive line expert, Matt Bitonti, had this ranked as the worst offensive line in football with Tunsil being their best player on the offensive line. Jesse Davis moved over to the left tackle while the right side of the line is made up of players who have been with the team for less than three weeks in Julieín Davenport who consistently is one of the worst tackles in football, and right guard Danny Isidora who the Vikings (who have their own offensive line issues) were willing to trade away for a 7th round pick.

Even before the game got out of hand which forced the Steelers to abandon the run, the Patriots contained James Conner. Conner struggled for most of the night as averaged just 2.1 yards per carry and did not have a carry longer than 5 yards. Dontía Hightower and Jamie Collins led the linebacking group and played outstanding as Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy and Michael Bennett kept the Steelers offensive line from getting upfield. The Patriots looked fantastic, and get back one of their best defensive players in stalwart Kyle Van Noy who missed the game due to the birth of his child. For a unit that struggled last season allowing 4.9 yards-per-carry, it looked much improved after one week and will likely be untested this week in a game script that does not favor the Dolphins running the ball much.

Dolphins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Dolphins are going sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick after the blowout loss to the Ravens last week. Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Dolphins, their play is unlikely to improve unless the offensive line improves as Fitzpatrick was pressured all day long and had little time to release the ball. The wide receiving group still leaves a lot to be desired as DeVante Parker remains a big-play receiver, but did lead the team in targets this week. After Parker, Mike Gesicki, Albert Wilson and Preston Williams are all possession type players who the team will look to get the ball out quickly.

The Patriots secondary continues to show that itís 2018 season was not a fluke as it played tremendously holding the Steelers to just 5.9 yards per attempt last week. Stephon Gilmore did a tremendous job locking down JuJu Smith-Schuster and continues to show why he is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The Patriots made an under-the-radar move on Saturday before the game giving Jonathan Jones a three-year extension and the slot-corner who beat out J.C. Jackson played tremendously as the Steelers tried to pick on the inexperienced player targeting him nine times, but he only allowed three receptions for 19 yards. If Jones can continue to play this well, this is a secondary that will be almost impossible to throw against as they also have the McCourty twins at cornerback and safety alongside veteran Patrick Chung while bringing in Duron Harmon on passing downs.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+21.9)32 (+21.9)32 (+21.2)32 (+22.7)
1Lamar Jackson5417203245036036.836.833.636.6

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6400)

1vs PIT7024363413000029.129.125.628.6
2PROJ-Dodds25332912.20.7130.123.623.623.6 (H=61)23.6 (H=74)
2PROJ-Tremblay23362612.21120.121.721.721.7 (H=52)21.7 (H=64)
2PROJ-Bloom21282772.70.5110.124.924.924.9 (H=67)24.9 (H=81)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+12.3)25 (+6.8)28 (+9.5)26 (+9.2)
1Mark Ingram25141072000022.722.722.725.7
1Gus Edwards291756000005.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6200)

1vs PIT231514000.0001.
2PROJ-Dodds16720.71.060121312.5 (H=23)13.0 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay17750.70.00011.711.711.7 (H=20)11.7 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom15710.91.090.1141514.5 (H=30)15.0 (H=35)

James White (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs PIT33426075.05608.213.210.713.2
2PROJ-Dodds4190.24.2370.38.612.810.7 (H=19)12.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay5200.25.0420.49.814.812.3 (H=24)14.8 (H=41)
2PROJ-Bloom4210.34.0450.410.814.812.8 (H=26)14.8 (H=41)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs PIT32844085.04108.513.511.013.5
2PROJ-Dodds9350.22.7210.17.410.18.8 (H=18)10.1 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay7280.24.3360.28.813.111.0 (H=27)13.1 (H=45)
2PROJ-Bloom14620.42.0170.110.912.911.9 (H=31)12.9 (H=44)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+17.8)25 (+12.4)27 (+15.3)24 (+13.7)
1Marquise Brown1454147200026.730.728.733.7
1Willie Snead503241100010.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6900)

1vs PIT67116.083018010.716.713.416.4
2PROJ-Dodds5.2630.51609.915.112.6 (H=22)15.2 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.6580.51609.41411.8 (H=20)14.1 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0660.715011.316.313.9 (H=26)16.4 (H=36)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5800)

1vs PIT4743.073100013.316.314.816.3
2PROJ-Dodds3.3560.4000811.39.7 (H=16)11.3 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.4390.30005.78.16.9 (H=9)8.1 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0710.700011.315.313.3 (H=28)15.3 (H=38)

Antonio Brown (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7000)

1vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.9510.40007.511.49.5 (H=12)11.4 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.0400.50007108.5 (H=10)10.0 (H=15)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs PIT6144.095200021.525.523.525.5
2PROJ-Dodds2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=7)6.5 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0250.20003.75.74.7 (H=6)5.7 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0440.50007.410.48.9 (H=18)10.4 (H=38)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+16.1)32 (+25.1)32 (+20.6)32 (+27.8)
1Mark Andrews3288108116.824.820.827.8

Ryan Izzo (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs PIT4521.0300.
2PROJ-Dodds1.5170. (H=4)4.4 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.7190. (H=4)4.8 (H=12)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+4.2)25T (+4.2)22T (+3.5) (+0.0)
1Justin Tucker1188111111.011.0

Stephen Gostkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs PIT4433151516.016.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.9)25T (+2.9)27 (+6.2)27 (+6.2)
1Baltimore Ravens10200321009913.013.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs PIT3.00308110003310.010.0
2PROJ-Dodds15.603402.61.30.900.612.912.912.9 (H=34)12.9 (H=45)
2PROJ-Tremblay14.253191.9110.10.813.713.713.7 (H=37)13.7 (H=50)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-9.0)8 (-9.1)6 (-8.7)6 (-10.2)
1Ben Roethlisberger6927472760117013.513.510.710.7

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs BAL4514291851118013.
2PROJ-Dodds18292000.91.2280.113.813.813.8 (H=30)13.8 (H=40)
2PROJ-Tremblay18292220.9128014.514.514.5 (H=33)14.5 (H=43)
2PROJ-Bloom14271400.81.52100.110.310.310.3 (H=18)10.3 (H=24)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-11.6)5 (-12.1)4 (-11.9)5 (-12.7)
1James Conner3210210444406.510.58.510.5
1Jaylen Samuels2324021200.

Kenyan Drake (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs BAL27412032.01502.
2PROJ-Dodds8350.13.1220.16.9108.5 (H=14)10.0 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay7320.12.5210.16.597.8 (H=12)9.0 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom5190.23.0170. (H=10)8.4 (H=18)

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs BAL205-1011.01301.
2PROJ-Dodds9370.21.1805.76.86.3 (H=9)6.8 (H=12)
2PROJ-Tremblay9390.20.8705.86.66.2 (H=9)6.6 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom5140.11.0702.73.73.2 (H=2)3.7 (H=4)

Mark Walton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs BAL411000.0000.
2PROJ-Dodds2700.0000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay2800.0000.80.80.8 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom1300.0000.30.30.3 (H=0)0.3 (H=0)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-7.5)17 (-0.9)15 (-4.0)16 (-2.6)
1JuJu Smith-Schuster62867800007.813.810.813.8
1James Washington36625100005.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs BAL3873.07500007.510.59.010.5
2PROJ-Dodds3.6510.30006.910.58.7 (H=15)10.5 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.6510.20006.39.98.1 (H=14)9.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0440.20005.68.67.1 (H=11)8.6 (H=20)

Preston Williams (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs BAL2153.02410008.411.49.911.4
2PROJ-Dodds3.1390.10004.57.66.1 (H=9)7.6 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6360.10004.26.85.5 (H=7)6.8 (H=16)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0350.30005.38.36.8 (H=11)8.3 (H=22)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs BAL3031.0-30000-0.30.7-1.8-0.3
2PROJ-Dodds1.8220.10002.84.63.8 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.6230.10002.94.53.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=8)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0110.10001.73.72.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=6)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs BAL3531.02200002.
2PROJ-Dodds1.6200.10002.64.23.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.10002.84.43.6 (H=4)4.4 (H=8)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs BAL642.01301101.
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.3340.121105.17.46.3 (H=9)7.4 (H=16)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-3.4)10 (-6.4)11T (-4.9)10 (-6.7)
1Vance McDonald49424004.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs BAL3462.03103.
2PROJ-Dodds2.7300. (H=8)6.9 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.0290. (H=8)7.1 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0260. (H=5)5.2 (H=12)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.8)5T (-3.8)5T (-4.5) (+0.0)
1Chris Boswell1100333.03.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs BAL1111446.06.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-5.1)4T (-5.1)4T (-6.8)4T (-6.8)
1Pittsburgh Steelers3346510000110.00.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $2500, DraftKings: $2100)

1vs BAL59.006431000011-3.0-3.0
2PROJ-Dodds35.504561.90.80.500. (H=7)3.5 (H=8)
2PROJ-Tremblay33.253952.310.500. (H=15)5.5 (H=18)