Matchup Analysis: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Vikings 21, Packers 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense28.0 (+3.8) (12)172 (+64) (4)97 (-166) (32)
Packers Defense3.0 (-21.2) (1)46 (-62) (5)208 (-55) (10)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense10.0 (-14.2) (29)47 (-61) (27)166 (-97) (28)
Vikings Defense12.0 (-12.2) (5)73 (-35) (9)272 (+8) (18)

Vikings Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Dalvin Cook looked spectacular in his season debut for the Vikings, rushing 21 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns against a soft Falcons run defense. Cook showed both quickness and power as he made nice cuts through wide-open holes while even carrying defenders into the end zone for his second touchdown. Backup Alexander Mattison also got in on the fun with nine carries for 49 yards as he showed great acceleration while making some nice moves downfield. The Vikings offensive line certainly out-performed their bottom-tier ranking coming into Week 1, but that doesn’t mean they have no concerns with rookie center Garrett Bradbury having a forgettable debut as he had a hard time getting off the ball to his blocks. This offensive line will be worth watching moving forward, as not even matchup will be as fruitful as the Falcons were.

The Packers front seven looked formidable against the Bears in Week 1. Preston Smith had a spectacular debut with the Packers, showing how effective he can be both against the run and the pass. Za’Darius Smith showed improvement over last season as well, while Kenny Clark turned in another solid showing familiar to what he did all of last season. New safety Adrian Amos also had a great first game as he hauled in an interception while also making a few stops against the run. Vikings center Garrett Bradbury will have his hands full against this Packers defensive front as the Vikings offensive line will be tested in this one. Dalvin Cook will need to be just as powerful after contact as he was in Week 1 to have anywhere near that level of success on the ground.

Vikings Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

It was expected that a healthy Dalvin Cook would lead to a heavier focus on the run for this Vikings offense, but only 10 pass attempts from Kirk Cousins last week was certainly an extreme shift in offensive philosophy from what was displayed last season. Cousins did not even pass for 100 yards as he simply didn’t have to in last week’s game, completing eight of 10 passes for 98 yards and one touchdown to Adam Thielen. While this is far from indicative of what to expect on a weekly basis, it is certainly concerning for what was once a high-volume passing offense that has now seemingly moved heavily to a run-first approach. Adam Thielen led the team in targets, for whatever that is worth, as he hauled in all three of them for 43 yards and a touchdown. Stefon Diggs was also involved with a couple of receptions. These two will continue to serve as the primary options through the air while Dalvin Cook should get a few targets per week, and Kyle Rodolph remains a low-upside red zone threat.

The Packers secondary looked great in Week 1 as they took advantage of a very poor showing from Mitchell Trubisky. Their cornerbacks all played well, with Jaire Alexander leading the way. Alexander should see a mix of Thielen and Diggs this week, but both Thielen and Diggs in an offense with Kirk Cousins under center will always present much more of a threat than Allen Robinson catching passes from Trubisky. What helps the Packers is the talent they have added at safety. Adrian Amos made an immediate impact in Week 1 and should continue to serve as an impact player over the top for the Packers. Tight end Kyle Rudolph should have limited opportunities this week as he draws tough coverage from safeties Raven Greene and Darnell Savage as well. The Vikings offensive line held up relatively well against the pass rush, but rookie center Garrett Bradbury had a notably difficult time coming off the ball and should struggle against a strong Packers interior defensive line. With all that said, let’s pull back from overreacting to a stellar performance against Mitchell Trubisky. The Packers defense did look great, but the Vikings present an entirely different offensive challenge that will really prove how effective this Packers defense can be.

Packers Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

The Packers predictably struggled in their season-opener against the elite Chicago Bears defense. Aaron Jones led the backfield with 13 carries for 39 yards. While Jones was the clear lead back, the snap split was still pretty close with Jones seeing just 59% of snaps compared to 41% from Jamaal Williams. Williams was alotted five carries but did basically nothing with them, netting out to zero rushing yards. Jones did head to the sideline briefly with what appeared to be a hand injury, but he returned to the field on the following drive and is not listed on the injury report. The Packers offensive line had a tough time against one of the top defensive lines in football, and things will not improve much this week as they draw another difficult matchup against the Vikings.

The Vikings allowed just 50 rushing yards to Falcons running backs last week as their defensive line commanded the trenches combined with a game script that forced the Falcons to go pass-heavy. Devonta Freeman was held to only 19 yards on eight carries. The Vikings interior defensive line appeared to pick up right where they left off last season as a top-tier unit. Despite the loss of Sheldon Richardson, Linval Joseph and Shamar Stephen played very well against the run. Linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr also did well picking up the slack while Harrison Smith made some great tackles from the third level--leading the team with eight solo tackles. The Packers offensive line may not have looked great last week against the Bears, but this is still a talented unit that should match up well even against this stout Vikings defensive front. Even if the Packers do win in the trenches, the Vikings have solid playmakers on the second and third level to chip in--a trait that continues to make them a top-tier run defense.

Packers Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Aaron Rodgers passed for just 203 yards and one touchdown in a very tough season opener against the Bears. That Bears defense can make even the best of quarterbacks look silly. Rodgers faced consistent pressure, was hit 11 times with five sacks, and had nine passes defended--a truly difficult day at the office. Rodgers did miss the entire preseason, so he very well may have been shaking off some rust as he flashed at times, but was unimpressive on the whole. Davante Adams was kept in check during the opener but was still the top target for Rodgers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team in receiving on the heels of a 47-yard bomb that made up all but five of his total receiving yards from four receptions. Jimmy Graham also found the end zone and is already halfway to matching his 2018 touchdown total. He still has a size advantage over almost any defensive back and certainly used it to make that touchdown catch last week.

The Vikings secondary did a solid job against the Falcons receiving group as they limited big plays while holding top receiver Julio Jones to just 31 yards as he hauled in only six of 11 targets. Xavier Rhodes can be to blame for that impressive performance that should put a damper on the upside of Davonte Adams this week as he can expect to see a ton of Rhodes on shadow coverage. Slot cornerback Mackenzie Alexander suffered a dislocated elbow in Week 1 and is expected to miss this game, leading to Geronimo Allison squaring off against backup cornerback Jayron Kearse. Kearse is a big, physical defensive back who played well in relief of Alexander last week and matches up size-wise against Allison, so don’t be quick to assume Allison has an advantage here. If coverage from these cornerbacks was not enough, the Vikings also have a couple of the league’s top safeties over the top along with strong pass rush that should content pretty evenly with the Packers offensive line. There are no matchup advantages to be found for the Packers as they face another very difficult test this week.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-11.0)3 (-11.1)2 (-10.2)2 (-11.7)
1Mitchell Trubisky73264522801311011.511.59.29.2

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5300)

1vs ATL53810981064115.315.314.314.3
2PROJ-Dodds22312341.50.74100.118.618.618.6 (H=43)18.6 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay21322211.40.84140.117.817.817.8 (H=40)17.8 (H=55)
2PROJ-Bloom17251721.50.5490. (H=34)16.2 (H=46)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-5.7)21 (+3.8)15 (-1.0)21 (+3.2)
1Tarik Cohen510001084904.912.98.912.9
1David Montgomery286180112704.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7200)

1vs ATL3621111222.090242625.029.0
2PROJ-Dodds17840.43.7290.214.918.616.8 (H=33)18.6 (H=43)
2PROJ-Tremblay17820.44.7360.215.420.117.8 (H=37)20.1 (H=50)
2PROJ-Bloom20980.72.0130.115.917.916.9 (H=33)17.9 (H=41)

Alexander Mattison (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs ATL12949000.0004.
2PROJ-Dodds6270.21.0604.55.55.0 (H=6)5.5 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay6260.20.0003.83.83.8 (H=4)3.8 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom6310.20.0004.34.34.3 (H=5)4.3 (H=6)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-13.8)6 (-17.2)5 (-15.3)8 (-15.9)
1Allen Robinson70137102000010.217.213.720.2
1Taylor Gabriel67522400002.

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $7100)

1vs ATL4733.043100010.313.311.813.3
2PROJ-Dodds5.5690.40009.314.812.1 (H=20)14.8 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.3660.4000914.311.7 (H=19)14.3 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0710.600010.716.713.7 (H=25)16.7 (H=36)

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs ATL3222.03700003.
2PROJ-Dodds4.8540.40007.812.610.2 (H=16)12.6 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.1560.4000813.110.6 (H=17)13.1 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0430.50007.311.39.3 (H=13)11.3 (H=21)

Chad Beebe (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs ATL1411.0900000.
2PROJ-Dodds1.8200.10002.64.43.6 (H=3)4.5 (H=8)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.5200.10002.64.13.5 (H=3)4.2 (H=7)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0800000.81.81.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Josh Doctson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs ATL000.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.7800000. (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.000000000.00.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.00.0 (H=0)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.8)3 (-10.8)3 (-8.8)3 (-11.1)
1Adam Shaheen3421600.

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs ATL5310.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.0320.3586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.7370. (H=13)9.2 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=3)4.7 (H=9)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs ATL2600.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.6700.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=5)4.8 (H=11)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.8)5T (-3.8)5T (-4.5) (+0.0)
1Eddy Pineiro1100333.03.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs ATL0044444.04.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-1.1)14T (-1.1)21T (+2.2)21T (+2.2)
1Chicago Bears1021350000559.09.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL12.0034542100101014.014.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.2039530.70.500. (H=15)7.3 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.753852.50.80.600.4888.0 (H=18)8.0 (H=24)

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+1.1)17 (+1.0)18 (+1.1)18 (+2.6)
1Matt Ryan78334630422224023.623.620.623.6

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6500)

1@ CHI64183020310380151512.912.9
2PROJ-Dodds23362641.70.83170.121.521.521.5 (H=50)21.5 (H=62)
2PROJ-Tremblay24392841.60.83160.1222222.0 (H=52)22.0 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom22322221.90.93140.119.819.819.8 (H=44)19.8 (H=54)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-11.6)3 (-13.1)3 (-14.4)3 (-14.7)
1Ito Smith39631011904.
1Devonta Freeman398190431203.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5400)

1@ CHI381339011.0003.
2PROJ-Dodds14640.51.813010.712.511.6 (H=21)12.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay13600.51.411010.111.510.8 (H=19)11.5 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom16620. (H=20)12.1 (H=27)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ CHI2650022.01501.
2PROJ-Dodds6200.12.1160. (H=9)6.9 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay5200.12.7210.15.386.7 (H=11)8.0 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom4140.12.01203.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+6.0)26 (+12.6)23 (+9.5)21T (+10.9)
1Calvin Ridley616464100012.416.414.416.4
1Julio Jones531163110009.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $7700)

1@ CHI6284.03600003.
2PROJ-Dodds6.3790.700012.118.415.2 (H=27)18.4 (H=40)
2PROJ-Tremblay6.4810.600011.718.114.9 (H=26)18.1 (H=39)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0630.50009.315.312.3 (H=18)15.3 (H=29)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ CHI4264.05201005.
2PROJ-Dodds4.1560.31307.711.89.8 (H=18)11.8 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.3610.31608.512.810.7 (H=21)12.8 (H=35)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0550.40007.911.99.9 (H=18)11.9 (H=31)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ CHI3200.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2.3290.10003.55.84.7 (H=5)5.8 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.5210.10002.74.23.5 (H=3)4.2 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0210.20003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=8)

Trevor Davis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ CHI1911.02800002.
2PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.7900000.91.61.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.3)23 (+4.3)23 (+2.3)23 (+4.0)
1Austin Hooper62997707.716.712.216.7

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CHI3563.030191210.512.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.7400. (H=12)9.5 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.3490.36.7118.9 (H=16)11.0 (H=34)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0280. (H=9)8.2 (H=20)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI3432.01401.
2PROJ-Dodds1.2140.123.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0240. (H=7)5.6 (H=15)
2PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI2011.02802.
2PROJ-Dodds0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.770.11.321.7 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0120. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.8)1T (-6.8)1T (-7.5) (+0.0)
1Matt Bryant0000000.00.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CHI1111444.04.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-5.1)4T (-5.1)4T (-6.8)4T (-6.8)
1Atlanta Falcons2826910000110.00.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CHI3.00254510007714.014.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.403762.70.80.700. (H=22)8.8 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.753462.10.80.800. (H=24)9.3 (H=30)