Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 30, Raiders 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense40.0 (+15.8) (3)113 (+5) (15)378 (+114) (3)
Raiders Defense16.0 (-8.2) (7)95 (-13) (12)249 (-14) (16)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense24.0 (-0.2) (19)98 (-10) (20)259 (-4) (16)
Chiefs Defense26.0 (+1.8) (16)81 (-27) (10)347 (+83) (24)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Kansas City entered the season with little clarity at the running back position. Damien Williams emerged as a capable NFL running back late in the 2018 season, but his role in the 2019 offense was unclear. Williams entered the season as the team's starter, and he played 45 snaps (66 percent of potential offensive snaps) in week one. Williams produced just 26 yards on 13 carries throughout the Chiefs' week one domination of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Behind Williams on the depth chart was the newly-acquired LeSean McCoy. In McCoy's debut for Kansas City, he played just 20 offensive snaps but carried the ball 10 times for 81 yards over those snaps. Williams will likely continue as Kansas City's starter for the near future, but should he falter McCoy will be waiting in the wings to assume the starting role. Kansas City's offensive line ranks as one of the league's best, and they proved why in week one with an impressive display of run-blocking against Jacksonville.

Over the offseason, the Oakland Raiders made a clear investment in its defense, both via free agency and the NFL Draft. The Raiders signed linebacker Vontaze Burfict away from the Cincinnati Bengals and reaped immediate rewards in run defense thanks to this signing. Burfict jumped off the screen as the team's top run-defender in week one by making three run stops against the Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, aside from Burfict, there was not much to be excited about defensively for Oakland. The Raiders lost rookie safety Jonathan Abram to a torn rotator cuff following week one, and he will likely miss the entire season. Curtis Riley will likely step into the starting lineup at safety in Abram's absence. Riley's erratic performance throughout his career has left him unable to secure a position in any team's long-term plan over recent years. The Denver Broncos' running backs ran for over 4.7 yards-per-carry against Oakland in week one. Losing a starting safety that doubles as one of the team's most physical defenders does not bode well for the Raiders' chances of improving against the run. Oakland's run defense was already below-average entering the season, and this unit can ill afford any more losses to injury.

Chiefs Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Kansas City's passing offense did not skip a beat in the week one of the 2019 season. Patrick Mahomes accumulated 378 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions during the team's 40-26 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tyreek Hill, however, left the opener early due to a shoulder injury that will keep him out of this game. In his place, rookie speedster Mecole Hardman will likely assume the role of the team's primary deep-threat. Hardman, a second-round pick out of Georgia, played a Hill-like role throughout his preseason action. Expecting Hill-like production out of the rookie, however, is ill-advised. Hardman will be a threat every time he steps on the field, but his volume will likely pale in comparison to that of a healthy Tyreek Hill. Elsewhere, Sammy Watkins erupted for 9 catches, 198 yards, and 3 scores in week one without Hill. Watkins is the most-talented active wide receiver on the roster, and the former first-round pick will have ample opportunity to produce as Mahomes' number-one wide receiver. At tight end, Travis Kelce remains one of the NFL's best aerial threats. In week one, Kelce hauled in 3 out of 8 targets for 88 yards, and just missed a touchdown on an overthrown no-look pass from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In the absence of Tyreek Hill, Kelce's already hefty workload will likely increase. The consolidation of targets within the Chiefs' best pass-catchers may benefit Kelce more than any other player in this offense. Kansas City's offensive line did an incredible job of protecting the quarterback in the season opener, as Patrick Mahomes was not sacked a single time. The bruisers up front are expected to be a strength for Kansas City all season, and they lived up to the hype to open the year. The Chiefs' passing attack is set up to be one of the league's best once again in 2019. While the loss of Tyreek Hill for the near-future will hurt, Kansas City possesses the requisite playmakers elsewhere in the passing game to continue to light up scoreboards.

While the Oakland Raiders held Joe Flacco and the Broncos to just one passing touchdown in week one, it was a miserable night for Oakland's pass defense. The issues start in the secondary, where the Raiders presumably lost Gareon Conley for the near-future to a scary head/neck injury. Rookie Trayvon Mullen filled in for Conley following the injury and was targeted on nearly one-third of his coverage snaps, including Emmanuel Sanders' touchdown. Elsewhere in the secondary, there truly was no bright spot, and the seemingly strong performance is primarily due to Denver's ineptitude in the red zone. Oakland was able to generate timely pressure on Joe Flacco throughout the night, in large part thanks to a shockingly-strong performance from backup defensive end Benson Mayowa. Mayowa pressured Flacco on one-fifth of his pass rushes on the night, a nearly unmatched level of pass-rushing efficiency. Oakland's defensive line is talented but inexperienced. The Raiders have used 5 selections over the last 2 drafts on their defensive line. This investment has yet to bear fruit, and it will likely take some time before it does. Oakland's defense struggled to contain Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders in week one but was not punished for their mistakes. The Raiders' pass defense will have its ineptitude exposed by more efficient passing offenses, especially those in the upper-echelon of the modern NFL like Kansas City.

Raiders Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Oakland Raiders drafted Josh Jacobs in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft with the explicit intention of utilizing him as a bell-cow running back for the foreseeable future. In Jacobs' NFL debut, he mustered 85 yards on 23 carries, good for just 3.7 yards-per-carry. Throughout week one, no other player on Oakland's roster carried the ball more than once. Jacobs is the clear bell-cow, and head coach Jon Gruden has made it clear, he will continue in that role. Jacobs flashed the talent that made him a first-round draft choice throughout the night, but only when the offensive line gave him opportunities. Oakland's offensive line turned in one of the league's worst run-blocking performances of week one against Denver. The lone bright spot on the offensive line was right tackle Trent Brown, who did an adequate job while the rest of the line struggled. The Raiders' success running the football in week two will almost certainly be in spite of the offensive line, not because of it.

Kansas City stopped any Jacksonville attempt at establishing the run before it could even get going in week one by jumping out to an early lead. Playing catch-up, Jacksonville was forced to abandon the run and focus almost exclusively on passing the football to mount a comeback. Jacksonville's running backs only carried the football 14 times in week one, and while Leonard Fournette totaled 66 yards on his 13 attempts, 7 of his attempts went for 3 or fewer yards. Kansas City's defense as a whole did an exceptional job stifling the Jaguars' rushing attack. The most notable performer from the Chiefs’ defense in the season opener was linebacker Damien Wilson, who registered four run stops on the day. Defensive tackle Derrick Nnandi, who recorded two-run stops of his own, was also impressive on the defensive line. Kansas City's secondary surprisingly played a significant role in containing Jacksonville's ground game. Safeties Juan Thornhill and Tyrann Mathieu both impressed in run support in their respective debuts for the Kansas City. The Chiefs' new-look defense impressed in week one and will be expected to keep the momentum going here in week two. Establishing the run against the Kansas City Chiefs is shaping up to be a far more onerous task in 2019 than it has been in recent memory.

Raiders Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Derek Carr and Oakland's passing attack opened the 2019 season with a shockingly impressive performance during the team's 24-16 victory over the Denver Broncos. Carr finished the night completing 22 of his 26 passing attempts for 259 yards and 1 score. It is also worth noting that Carr pushed the ball downfield far more in week one than he typically did throughout the 2018 season. Offseason acquisition Tyrell Williams proved to be Carr's favorite target through the air, targeting Williams seven times throughout the game, including the highest-leverage situations. Williams tallied 6 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown in his debut in the silver and black. At tight end, Darren Waller flashed some of the potential that many analysts hoped he would display in an offense devoid of playmakers. Waller caught 7 of his 8 targets for 70 yards in his first start as a member of the Oakland Raiders. Aside from Williams and Waller, however, there is not much to like in this Oakland passing game. The Raiders' offensive line was highly impressive in the season opener. Denver was unable to apply pressure to Derek Carr all night, registering zero hits on the quarterback. Oakland's passing game impressed in the season opener, giving reason to adjust expectations for this unit for the better.

Nick Foles and Garner Minshew combined for 350 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception in week one, but these numbers do not tell the whole story of the matchup. Following an injury to Nick Foles, Minshew ran a dink-and-dunk offense that left receivers to do much of the work after the catch. Minshew's average 5.5 air-yards-per-attempt ranked 2nd-lowest in the entire NFL in week one. While Kansas City's pass rush failed to produce in week one, this unit has the pedigree of a defensive line primed to make an impact throughout the season. Frank Clark was acquired from Seattle following 3 straight 10+ sack seasons. While he only registered one pressure on the quarterback last week, Clark can be counted on to right the ship and get after the quarterback throughout the season. On the interior, Chris Jones is arguably the second-best interior lineman in the NFL. In 2018, Jones recorded 15.5 sacks, good enough for 3rd in the NFL. In week one, Jones pressured Jacksonville quarterbacks three times but failed to convert any into sacks, which won't continue for long. In the secondary, the Chiefs added Tyrann Mathieu over the offseason to strengthen their weak-point on the defense. While Mathieu did not turn in his best performance in week one, another newcomer, Breshaud Breeland, stepped up in coverage. Kansas City's week one defensive statistics are inflated due to an entire fourth-quarter of garbage time, but that could be a trend with their high powered offense. This is a strong unit, and is better than the stats that they will give up, but they will give up a significant amount of garbage time yards this season.

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-5.0)13 (-5.1)14 (-4.6)13 (-6.1)
1Joe Flacco6421312681011017.517.514.814.8

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $9000, DraftKings: $7500)

1@ JAX5925333783012031.131.127.330.3
2PROJ-Dodds25363102.40.93120.1262626.0 (H=62)26.0 (H=75)
2PROJ-Tremblay24372952.313120.124.724.724.7 (H=57)24.7 (H=68)
2PROJ-Bloom23303012.70.82100.126.726.726.7 (H=65)26.7 (H=78)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-6.0)9T (-6.5)8T (-6.3)9T (-7.1)
1Phillip Lindsay3411430642306.610.68.610.6
1Royce Freeman301056011506.

Damien Williams (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5800)

1@ JAX01326166.039012.518.515.518.5
2PROJ-Dodds11490.54.0310. (H=30)16.2 (H=42)
2PROJ-Tremblay12510.44.2330.21216.214.1 (H=29)16.2 (H=42)
2PROJ-Bloom13410.55.0330.312.217.214.7 (H=31)17.2 (H=47)

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ JAX201081011.01209.310.39.810.3
2PROJ-Dodds12490.31.6140.18.710.39.5 (H=17)10.3 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay9350.20.7505.25.95.6 (H=6)5.9 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom12610.51.0100.110.711.711.2 (H=22)11.7 (H=30)

Darwin Thompson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ JAX200011.0300.
2PROJ-Dodds160.11.0601.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.7500.51.20.8 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Anthony Sherman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ JAX1000011.01501.
2PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.7600.61.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.6)18 (+1.2)18 (+1.1)19 (+2.5)
1Emmanuel Sanders577586100014.619.617.119.6
1Courtland Sutton5787120000012.019.015.522.0

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $7200)

1@ JAX65119.0198300037.846.842.349.8
2PROJ-Dodds5.4820.600011.817.214.5 (H=27)17.2 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.3750.500010.515.813.2 (H=23)15.8 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0860.700012.818.815.8 (H=32)18.8 (H=44)

Mecole Hardman (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ JAX5310.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.2520.41508.111.39.8 (H=22)11.4 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.9270.20003.95.85.0 (H=6)5.9 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0550.51709.212.210.8 (H=26)12.3 (H=32)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ JAX4321.000000010.51.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.7210.20003.354.2 (H=4)5.0 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0320.3000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=20)

DeAnthony Thomas (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ JAX000.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.1140.11302.33.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.0120.11402.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)

Gehrig Dieter (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ JAX000.000000000.00.0

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-5.0)7 (-8.0)7 (-6.5)7 (-8.3)
1Noah Fant52522902.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7300)

1@ JAX5083.08808.811.810.311.8
2PROJ-Dodds6.0830.712.518.515.5 (H=28)18.5 (H=42)
2PROJ-Tremblay6.3840.813.219.516.4 (H=31)19.5 (H=47)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0850.813.318.315.8 (H=29)18.3 (H=42)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ JAX3311.0700.
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.780. (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.2)24 (+3.2)21 (+2.5) (+0.0)
1Brandon McManus3411101010.010.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ JAX4444161617.017.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.1)1T (-6.1)4T (-6.8)4T (-6.8)
1Denver Broncos2435700000000.00.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ JAX26.0042811100555.05.0
2PROJ-Dodds24.104062.60.90.900. (H=20)8.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay22.753642.30.90.700. (H=18)8.4 (H=22)

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+6.6)25 (+6.5)24 (+6.1)20 (+4.7)
1Gardner Minshew4722252752116021.421.418.618.6

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs DEN5822262591022017.217.214.614.6
2PROJ-Dodds25372681.60.8240.1202020.0 (H=54)20.0 (H=70)
2PROJ-Tremblay22352591.50.9250. (H=50)19.2 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom24392401.40.6110.117.717.717.7 (H=43)17.7 (H=56)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-8.6)6 (-10.1)6 (-11.4)6 (-11.7)
1Leonard Fournette5013660642809.413.49.412.4
1Ryquell Armstead817010000.

Josh Jacobs (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs DEN432385211.028023.324.323.824.3
2PROJ-Dodds20840.52.5180.113.816.315.1 (H=33)16.3 (H=53)
2PROJ-Tremblay19840.61.512013.214.714.0 (H=29)14.7 (H=44)
2PROJ-Bloom19710.52.0150. (H=26)14.2 (H=42)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs DEN913000.0000.
2PROJ-Dodds280.12.6180. (H=6)6.4 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2110.12.52103.86.35.1 (H=6)6.3 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom120.13.0170. (H=5)6.1 (H=13)

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs DEN528000.0000.
2PROJ-Dodds290.11.0602.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay2700.0000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+19.0)28 (+20.6)29 (+20.0)29 (+21.9)
1D.J. Chark4144146100020.624.622.627.6
1Chris Conley447697100015.721.718.721.7

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs DEN5576.0105100016.522.519.525.5
2PROJ-Dodds4.6650.40008.913.511.2 (H=22)13.5 (H=41)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.8710.40009.514.311.9 (H=24)14.3 (H=45)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0660.400091411.5 (H=23)14.0 (H=43)

Ryan Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs DEN4143.01600001.
2PROJ-Dodds3.2320.20004.47.66.0 (H=9)7.6 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.2370.20004.98.16.5 (H=11)8.1 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0370.20004.98.96.9 (H=12)8.9 (H=27)

Hunter Renfrow (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs DEN1632.01300001.
2PROJ-Dodds2.8320.20004.47.25.8 (H=9)7.2 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=7)6.4 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0310.20004.38.36.3 (H=10)8.3 (H=19)

J.J. Nelson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs DEN800.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.7110.10001.72.42.1 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)

Dwayne Harris (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs DEN211.0700000.
2PROJ-Dodds0.8800000. (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.890.10001. (H=3)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-2.5)17 (+0.5)16T (-1.0)17 (+0.2)
1James OShaughnessy38543203.

Darren Waller (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs DEN5887.070071410.514.0
2PROJ-Dodds5.0600.48.413.410.9 (H=23)13.4 (H=54)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.4460.36.410.88.6 (H=15)10.8 (H=37)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0610.37.912.910.4 (H=21)12.9 (H=50)

Foster Moreau (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs DEN3222.0200243.04.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.1110. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.6170. (H=3)3.9 (H=8)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs DEN000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.5600.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+1.2)19T (+1.2)19T (+0.5) (+0.0)
1Josh Lambo2222888.08.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs DEN1133666.06.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.1)1T (-6.1)1T (-10.8)1T (-10.8)
1Jacksonville Jaguars404910000000-4.0-4.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $2500, DraftKings: $2000)

1vs DEN16.0034430000334.04.0
2PROJ-Dodds32.6045920.90.500. (H=10)4.4 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay30.253982.410.500. (H=18)6.2 (H=23)