Matchup Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jaguars 17, Texans 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense26.0 (+1.8) (17)81 (-27) (23)347 (+83) (9)
Texans Defense30.0 (+5.8) (23)148 (+40) (26)362 (+98) (26)

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense28.0 (+3.8) (11)180 (+72) (3)234 (-29) (20)
Jaguars Defense40.0 (+15.8) (30)113 (+5) (18)378 (+114) (29)

Jaguars Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Jaguars had a rough outing against the Chiefs, but Leonard Fournette was a relative bright spot as he found some success both on the ground and through the air while finishing the game injury-free. Fournette looked noticeably more agile after dropping weight in the offseason. He finished averaging just over five yards per carry as he amassed 66 rushing yards from 13 attempts. As expected, Fournette had no competition for touches as Ryquell Armstead saw just one carry on eight snaps compared to the 50 snaps played by Fournette. Fournette did fumble for the first time in his career last week, but his track record of ball security should cause no concern of that becoming a worry in the future. The Jaguars offensive line actually played very well considering they had to start a third-string left tackle with both Cam Robinson and his backup sidelined. Rookie right tackle Jawaan Taylor played well and helped carry this group to give them a strong right side to lean on. Robinson is expected to be out again this week, meaning that the left side of this line will continue to be vulnerable.

The Texans were lit up by the elite Saints offensive line and ground game, allowing 148 rushing yards and an average of over seven yards per attempt to Saints running backs--third-worst in that category amongst defenses in Week 1. The entire defensive line, with the exception of Whitney Mercilus, had a tough time last week. D.J. Reader has to be a leader on the interior for this team to be effective against the run. It would have definitely helped had the linebacker group also lived up to their potential, but they too were subpar in the season debut with Bernardrick McKinney having a particularly poor game against the run. Even Texans safeties missed plays in run defense, with Justin Reid making a few blunders in the tackling department. The Saints offense is on another level from the Jaguars, though. With Cam Robinson potentially still out, the Texans defense should have a decent chance at a performance closer to their preseason expectations this week.

Jaguars Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Jaguars season got off to a terrible start as their new star quarterback Nick Foles suffered a broken collarbone after throwing his first touchdown pass with his new team. With Foles sidelined until at least Week 11, sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew will take over under center for the Jaguars. He has very limited NFL experience, but Minshew did look serviceable last week as he completed 22-or-25 attempts for 275 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Minshew showed great accuracy both downfield and on short throws as he spread the ball around well. Minshew relied heavily on short passes, but he also completed a 64-yard deep ball to D.J. Chark as his primary highlight. The Jaguars signed Josh Dobbs to compete at the quarterback position, but he will slot in as the backup to Minshew for this week. At wide receiver, it was Chris Conley who was the favorite target of Minshew based on the connection they established in training camp. Conley finished with 97 rushing yards, six receptions, and one touchdown. D.J. Chark led the team in receiving though as he hauled in the big 64-yard touchdown bomb on his way to 146 receiving yards. Dede Westbrook would have had an underwhelming start to his season if not for a late-game touchdown as he did not live up to expectations as the Jaguars WR1. Leonard Fournette also amassed a respectable four receptions for 28 yards--solid usage for him out of the backfield.

The Texans passing defense gave up 370 passing yards and two touchdowns while picking off Drew Brees once in last week’s opener. The defensive line failed to apply consistent pressure as both the interior and edges of this line were in poor form--including J.J. Watt, who looked sluggish. Whitney Mercilus was the only sharp player on this line, as he made a few nice plays and was consistently winning his matchup while also making a great play in the end zone to pick off Drew Brees. New safety Tashaun Gipson had a very tough time over the top as he fell victim to big play after big play by the Saints wide receivers. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph was their best defensive back, while slot man Aaron Colvin was the worst. Colvin performed so poorly that he was actually released on Tuesday. None of the three remaining cornerbacks on the roster can be trusted, so until the Texans can sign another cornerback, the slot will be a position to exploit when facing the Texans--news that bodes well for Dede Westbrook to put up solid numbers this week.

Texans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Houston’s ground game is off to a hot start as they amassed a combined 180 rushing yards against the Saints. It was actually Carlos Hyde who led the team both in carries and rushing yards, rushing 10 times for 83 yards. Duke Johnson was right behind him with nine carries for 57 yards--also a respectable stat line as this Texans offensive line actually overproduced in the run-blocking department. Hyde was the one to receive the start and gained most early-down carries while Johnson slotted in more on passing downs, assuming the role as when he was with the Browns. Both backs were impressive on the ground, but it was Hyde who looked the best. If this truly does end up being a committee, both roles may become game-script dependent with Johnson slotting on when the Texans are playing catch-up. Don’t sleep on Deshaun Watson as a rusher either. Given the constant pressure he was under, Watson managed to rush for 40 yards--including a 21-yard touchdown run to start off the game. That run did cause a back injury that Watson played through for the rest of the game, but he should still be expected to start this week.

The Jaguars defense had a poor showing against the top offense in the league, but their run defense actually did a decent job on most snaps as they held Chiefs starter Damien Williams to just 26 yards on 13 carries. It was actually LeSean McCoy who gashed the Jaguars on a few plays as McCoy ran for 81 yards on just 10 attempts. Defensive captain and top linebacker Miles Jack was ejected after throwing a punch in the second quarter--so that certainly did not help this defense. Jack should be available this week and can be an impact player when on the field. Both Abry Jones and Calais Campbell should have advantages on the interior while Josh Allen should have a good chance to shine against a very weak right side of the Texans offensive line. Right defensive end Marcell Darius remains week to week with an elbow injury, so keep an eye on his status. If he does suit up, it is an even further downgrade for the Texans backfield.

Texans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Texans offense looked crisp in their Monday Night Football season opener against the Saints as they fell just short of the victory behind spectacular showings from DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Watson was fearless under center as he made a number of impressive passes downfield despite being under constant pressure throughout the game. Watson was sacked six times behind a lower-tier offensive line that may have even underperformed their #20 ranking from Footballguys analyst Matt Bitonti coming into Week 1. New left tackle Laremy Tunsil certainly looked like he needs more time adjusting to his new team. Hopkins was the star of the show for this offense as he racked up 13 targets, hauling in eight of them for 111 yards and two touchdowns. He did drop a few passes early on, but the volume made up for it as no other wide receiver had more than three targets. It was Will Fuller and Kenny Stills getting the start with Keke Coutee sidelined from injury. Fuller made an impressive catch of 54 yards, but that was the extent of his involvement. Stills was a non-factor until catching a game-tying 37-yard touchdown with seconds remaining. If Coutee makes it back on the field this week, Stills will be relegated to WR4 duties. Running back Duke Johnson Jr. made a solid contribution in his debut with the Texans, showing flashes of what may be to come as he should be actively involved in the passing game for this offense.

The Jaguars secondary struggled against the league’s top offense last week as Patrick Mahomes lit them up for 378 passing yards and three touchdowns. Top cornerback Jalen Ramsey had a very rough debut as he was beaten on multiple occasions by Sammy Watkins, including a late touchdown where Watkins simply outplayed Ramsey. A.J. Bouye didn’t look much better as all the Jaguars defensive backs struggled both in coverage and with tackling, often allowing extra yards after the catch. DeAndre Hopkins should see coverage from Ramsey, but Hopkins is one of the most matchup-proof wide receivers in the league. Rookie linebacker Quincy Williams also had a poor debut as he was slow in coverage, allowing Chiefs running back Damien Williams to run open at will. This poor showing bodes well for Duke Johnson, who was heavily involved in the passing game last week. The Jaguars safeties were also not much better as they had poor communication on a number of plays. They did help limit Travis Kelce to just three receptions from eight targets, but they gave up big plays of over 40 yards on two of those three receptions. The pass rush was also lackluster aside from rookie Josh Allen, who did achieve consistent pressure. While the Jaguars can get somewhat of a pass from Week 1 being against the likes of the Chiefs, they should not instill fear in a Texans passing offense with momentum from a solid Week 1 performance.

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+10.7)29 (+11.6)29 (+10.5)30 (+12.6)
1Drew Brees6632433702100025.525.521.824.8

Gardner Minshew (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4800)

1vs KC4722252752116021.421.418.618.6
2PROJ-Dodds23352271.31.125015.915.915.9 (H=37)15.9 (H=50)
2PROJ-Tremblay21342241.11.1250151515.0 (H=34)15.0 (H=45)
2PROJ-Bloom24382161.51.312015.715.715.7 (H=36)15.7 (H=49)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+8.9)30 (+12.4)30 (+10.6)30 (+11.8)
1Alvin Kamara50139708772016.923.920.423.9
1Latavius Murray186431324010.712.711.712.7

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs KC501366064.02809.413.49.412.4
2PROJ-Dodds19710.54.3320.113.918.216.1 (H=35)18.2 (H=48)
2PROJ-Tremblay21700.55.1410.114.719.817.3 (H=40)19.8 (H=55)
2PROJ-Bloom15630.34.0260.111.315.313.3 (H=25)15.3 (H=35)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs KC817010.0000.
2PROJ-Dodds270.11.0601.92.92.4 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay2600.8601.221.6 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom140.10.000111.0 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+4.5)22 (+10.1)21 (+7.5)25 (+14.4)
1Michael Thomas591310123000012.322.317.325.3
1Ted Ginn4977101000010.117.113.620.1

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5400)

1vs KC4865.03011209.214.211.714.2
2PROJ-Dodds4.4460.32506.911.39.2 (H=15)11.4 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.7450.22806.510.28.4 (H=13)10.3 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0380.40006.211.28.8 (H=14)11.3 (H=24)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4200)

1vs KC4476.097100015.721.718.721.7
2PROJ-Dodds3.6390.30005.79.37.5 (H=12)9.3 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.5430.30006.19.67.9 (H=14)9.6 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0510.40007.511.59.5 (H=19)11.5 (H=32)

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs KC4144.0146100020.624.622.627.6
2PROJ-Dodds2.4350.20004.77.15.9 (H=8)7.1 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.8250.10003.14.94.0 (H=4)4.9 (H=6)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0490.40007.310.38.8 (H=16)10.3 (H=25)

Marqise Lee (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4200)

1vs KC1200.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs KC1200.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.9)12 (-5.9)11T (-4.9)12 (-6.2)
1Jared Cook42323703.

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs KC3854.03203.
2PROJ-Dodds2.8260. (H=7)6.6 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.8270. (H=7)6.7 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0300. (H=8)7.6 (H=25)

Geoff Swaim (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs KC2944.01701.
2PROJ-Dodds2.4210. (H=4)5.1 (H=12)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.4240.135.44.2 (H=5)5.4 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0220. (H=5)5.8 (H=15)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+5.2)28T (+5.2)29T (+7.5) (+0.0)
1Wil Lutz3433121215.015.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs KC2222888.08.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.9)22T (+1.9)17T (+0.2)17T (+0.2)
1New Orleans Saints2841461000887.07.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2400)

1vs KC40.004910000000-4.0-4.0
2PROJ-Dodds28.103952.80.90.700. (H=18)7.8 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay26.0036820.80.600.4777.0 (H=15)7.0 (H=24)

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26T (+8.5)26T (+8.4)27 (+7.8)27 (+9.3)
1Patrick Mahomes5925333783012031.131.127.330.3

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $6600)

1@ NO67203026831440134.434.431.731.7
2PROJ-Dodds22312601.70.85250.323.323.323.3 (H=54)23.3 (H=70)
2PROJ-Tremblay20302381.70.85270.221.821.821.8 (H=48)21.8 (H=63)
2PROJ-Bloom223128020.93170.2242424.0 (H=57)24.0 (H=74)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+4.9)28 (+8.4)25 (+6.6)24 (+7.8)
1Damien Williams0132616639012.518.515.518.5
1LeSean McCoy2010810111209.310.39.810.3

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ NO42957054.033091311.013.0
2PROJ-Dodds9430.33.3250.19.212.510.9 (H=20)12.5 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay12500.33.4280.210.814.212.5 (H=26)14.2 (H=39)
2PROJ-Bloom9440.24.0330. (H=24)14.1 (H=39)

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ NO251083011.0208.
2PROJ-Dodds15550.41.0608.59.59.0 (H=16)9.5 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay13530.40.7408.18.88.5 (H=15)8.8 (H=24)
2PROJ-Bloom15550.40.0007.97.97.9 (H=13)7.9 (H=19)

Buddy Howell (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ NO000000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26T (+13.4)24 (+12.0)25 (+12.9)23 (+13.3)
1Sammy Watkins65119198300037.846.842.349.8
1Tyreek Hill12221601502.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $9000, DraftKings: $8100)

1@ NO66138.0111200023.
2PROJ-Dodds6.4840.60001218.415.2 (H=24)18.4 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay6.2840.60001218.215.1 (H=24)18.2 (H=37)
2PROJ-Bloom7.0880.800013.620.617.1 (H=30)20.6 (H=46)

Will Fuller (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ NO6532.06900006.
2PROJ-Dodds3.5490.30006.710.28.5 (H=13)10.3 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6380.30005.68.27.0 (H=9)8.3 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0640.40008.812.810.9 (H=20)12.9 (H=31)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ NO000.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2.4310.20004.36.75.5 (H=7)6.7 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.3150.10002.13.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0390.30005.78.77.2 (H=11)8.7 (H=22)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

1@ NO2833.03710009.712.711.212.7
2PROJ-Dodds1.9270.20003.95.84.9 (H=5)5.8 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.8270.20003.95.74.8 (H=5)5.7 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0440.30006.29.27.7 (H=12)9.2 (H=22)

DeAndre Carter (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ NO2811.0-10000-
2PROJ-Dodds1.01100001.12.11.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.780.10001.42.11.9 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.1)19 (+1.1)21 (+1.6)19 (+0.8)
1Travis Kelce50838808.811.810.311.8

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2700)

1@ NO4721.01701.
2PROJ-Dodds1.5190. (H=5)4.6 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0240. (H=6)5.6 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom1.01201.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NO3410.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+9.2)32 (+9.2)32 (+9.5) (+0.0)
1Harrison Butker4444161617.017.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ NO0044444.04.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-1.1)14T (-1.1)14 (-1.8)14 (-1.8)
1Kansas City Chiefs2642811100555.05.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ NO30.0051011000332.02.0
2PROJ-Dodds19.403402.710.90.10.5111111.0 (H=26)11.0 (H=45)
2PROJ-Tremblay17.503142. (H=29)11.7 (H=50)