Matchup Analysis: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Cowboys 25, Redskins 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense35.0 (+10.8) (4)89 (-19) (22)405 (+141) (1)
Redskins Defense32.0 (+7.8) (27)123 (+15) (22)313 (+49) (22)

Washington Redskins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Redskins Offense27.0 (+2.8) (16)28 (-80) (31)370 (+106) (5)
Cowboys Defense17.0 (-7.2) (11)151 (+43) (27)319 (+55) (23)

Cowboys Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Ezekiel Elliott ended his holdout from Cowboys training camp in time to return and play in Dallas' week one matchup against the New York Giants. Having not practiced with the team all summer, Elliott was not quite in football shape for week one, and he may not reach that point for a few more weeks. Even in his less-than-ideal physical state, Elliott still played 54 percent of snaps and carried the ball 13 times. Backup Tony Pollard also carried the ball 13 times in the opened, but for only 24 yards compared to Elliott's 53. In week two and beyond, Elliott's snap count and touch count will ascend while Pollard's declines, as the Cowboys, will undoubtedly want to get their money's worth after making Ezekiel Elliott the league's highest-paid running back. Elliott will run behind one of the NFL's most reliable offensive lines once again in week two. After playing just over half of Dallas' offensive snaps in week one, expect Ezekiel Elliott to climb closer to the bell-cow status in week two. While he will not quite reach the usage levels of previous seasons, his near-bell-cow role will likely produce impressive numbers thanks to the remarkable group of run-blockers Elliott will run behind.

Washington was expected to field a serviceable run defense in 2019, but unfortunately, the unit was dealt a major blow right out of the gates in week one. Defense tackle Jonathan Allen was lost to a knee injury after just seven snaps against Philadelphia. Allen is expected to miss a few weeks, but filling his shoes is a tall task. On the defensive line, without Allen, Matt Ioannidis turned in one of the worst performances of his career in week one, Daron Payne struggled to stifle the run, and the rotation of defensive linemen filling in for Jonathan Allen was serviceable at best. At linebacker, Jon Bostic failed to replace the production of the recently-departed Zach Brown. Historically, Bostic's impact in run defense has been markedly negative, which shows that this is a trend that is likely to continue. Bostic's running-mates in the linebacking corps were unable to pick up the slack. Washington ultimately allowed Philadelphia's running backs to run for 116 yards on 4.5 yards-per-carry in week one, and this defense is primed to struggle once again in week two.

Cowboys Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Kellen Moore's first game calling the plays for the Dallas Cowboys' offense was one of the most hyper-efficient passing days in recent NFL history. Dak Prescott finished the game completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns en route to a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Dallas' aerial attack maximized efficiency by utilizing play-action on 43.8 percent of its pass attempts, the second-highest rate in the NFL. As expected, Amari Cooper opened the season as Dak Prescott's favorite target. Cooper commanded 9 targets, hauling in 6 receptions for 106 yards and 1 touchdown in week one. Michael Gallup also emerged as a beneficiary of Dallas' revamped passing attack, as he caught all 7 of his targets for 158 yards on the day against the New York Giants. Behind the clear top two wide receivers, Randall Cobb slotted in for the recently-departed Cole Beasley. Cobb played almost exclusively from the slot in week one, and that will continue to be his role throughout the season. At tight end, Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin both found the end zone in the season opener. In the trenches, the Cowboys' offensive line proved to be every bit as formidable as expected in week one. Reintroducing All-Pro center Travis Frederick into the fold bolstered a unit that already ranked amongst the league's best. Overall, Dallas' passing attack showed signs of life in week one that far exceeded anything this offense produced in previous years thanks to Kellen Moore's more modern play-calling.

The Washington Redskins got picked apart in week one by Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. When all was said and done, Wentz finished the game with 313 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and he was sacked just 1 time. None of these numbers signal anything resembling a strong performance from Washington's defense. Coming off a season in which the Redskins fielded a firmly-league-average pass defense, this season has the makings of a far different story. Two of the most notable newcomers to Washington's defense, Jon Bostic and Landon Collins, struggled mightily in coverage duties throughout the game in week one. Bostic has long been a liability in coverage, and he is replacing one of the NFL's best coverage linebackers, Zach Brown, in this defense. Landon Collins' poor performance, on the other hand, is startling. Collins was signed as the highest-paid safety in the NFL following a string of strong coverage seasons, but week one of 2019 was an entirely different story. Collins was unable to force an incompletion on any of the six targets he faced in coverage. Washington's pass rush was unable to break through Philadelphia's stout pass protection to disrupt the pocket with consistency in week one, and they will be without Jonathan Allen for the foreseeable future. Allen injured his MCL early in the game, and he will be replaced by a rotation of interior defensive linemen including Tim Settle, Caleb Brantley, and Treyvon Hester. No matter how the snaps get distributed amongst these three, one thing holds true: there will be a significant drop off in production from Allen to his replacement. Washington's pass defense without Fabian Moreau struggled against one of the league's stronger passing attacks in week one, in large part due to their inability to disrupt the pocket. If Moreau is out again, the Redskins will be forced to rely once again on 7th round rookie Jimmy Moreland. If they get Moreau back from an ankle injury, this defense will see an upgrade, but as of now is one that could be in for a long day.

Redskins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Washington Redskins will once again be forced to field an offense without running back Derrius Guice following another knee injury (not the same knee he tore his ACL in last year) in week one. Following the injury, Adrian Peterson will be called upon to man the backfield on 1st and 2nd down. Peterson was a healthy scratch in week one because head coach Jay Gruden believes Guice can do everything Peterson can, and then more. Gruden's hand was forced, however, following Guice's injury, and Peterson will be re-inserted into Washington's offense. In 2018, Peterson managed an unimpressive 4.2 yards-per-carry, and without his 90-yard rushing touchdown from week 13, that mark would have been a meager 3.81 yards-per-carry. Washington's average offensive line is still missing left tackle Trent Williams who many thought there was a chance he would report this week. Chris Thompson will come onto the field in third-down situations, but these are typically passing-downs, and his contributions on the ground will be few and far between.

In week one, Dallas faced off with one of the NFL's most talented running backs in Saquon Barkley. Barkley ran for 120 yards on 11 carries, including a 59-yard carry on the first drive of the game. The productive day on the ground can be blamed, in part, on weak performances from two critical Cowboys defenders: Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. Both players have established themselves in the NFL as strong run-stopping linebackers, which means these poor showings were likely outlier performances in the grand scheme of things. Aside from Smith and Vander Esch, the Cowboys' run defense met all preseason expectation set for them. The defensive line was impressive across the board, and it showcased of the depth that has many believing they have what it takes to be one of the league's best defensive-fronts. Demarcus Lawrence, the team's top defensive lineman, will see increased playing time in week two after the team eased him into action in week one. Similarly, Byron Jones, one of the league's best cornerbacks in run-support, will play more in week two following a 27-snap limit in week one as he recovered from offseason hip surgery. A bounce-back performance from the linebacking corps, coupled with consistency in the trenches and in the secondary will make the Dallas run defense one of the league's toughest to beat once again in week two following a flukey week one performance.

Redskins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Washington Redskins the season with one of the league's weakest group of pass-catchers. In week one, Case Keenum posted an impressive final stat line, but his performance as a passer does not quite match up with the yardage numbers. Keenum ultimately finished with 380 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions on the day, but context matters in this situation. Keenum's first touchdown came on an impressive catch-and-run from veteran tight end Vernon Davis, and his final score came on a 75-yard drive in pure garbage time when the Eagles were in full-blown prevent defense. At wide receiver, Terry McLaurin proved to have the requisite combination of speed and route-running ability to be a successful wide receiver in the NFL. McLaurin led all wide receivers with 5 catches on 7 targets for 125 yards and a 69-yard touchdown in the opener. Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson round out Washington's starting group of wide receivers, but neither was impressive by any means. As previously mentioned, Vernon Davis should continue to fill in at tight end while Jordan Reed recovers from a concussion. In week one, Davis proved he still has some gas left in the tank on his previously-mentioned 48-yard touchdown reception, but aside from this single play, Davis offered little support through the air. Washington's third-down running back, Chris Thompson racked up 10 targets as Case Keenum's safety valve in week one. Thompson will continue to see heavy passing-down usage in the absence of Derrius Guice, who will miss at least a few weeks with a knee injury. Lastly, up front, the Redskins' offensive line turned in a slightly below-average performance in week one, which is to be expected given the unit's general lack of talent while Trent Williams holds-out awaiting a move out of Washington D.C. The outlook for Washington's passing attack is bleak given the general scarcity of talent across the board.

The Dallas Cowboys dominated at home against the New York Giants in week one. New York struggled to move the ball on Dallas' deep and balanced defense. Eli Manning tallied 306 passing yards and just 1 touchdown on the day thanks to a pass-heavy game script as the Giants unsuccessfully attempted to mount a comeback. Dallas' defense played a strong and well-rounded game, as expected, in the opener thanks to both the pass rush and coverage units. In the trenches, Joe Jackson and Demarcus Lawrence each had big days off the edge with 3 and 4 pressures, respectively. On the interior, Maliek Collins also contributed 3 pressures himself. The depth of Dallas' defensive line ensured that no matter who rotated in or out of the game, the Cowboys were still able to disrupt the pocket and force Eli Manning to make difficult throws. Dallas' secondary also turned in a stellar performance on the day. Third-year player Jourdan Lewis was the standout of this unit as he allowed only one reception in 27 coverage snaps. In week one, the Cowboys limited Byron Jones to just 23 coverage snaps as he returns from offseason hip surgery. The All-Pro cornerback did not allow a single reception against the Giants in week one, and he is expected to see the field for more snaps against Washington in week two. Dallas fields one of the deepest defenses in the entire NFL, and they are entering week two even stronger than week one. Passing against this team will be challenging all season, but it may be hardest here early in the season when the unit is closest to full-strength.

Redskins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+5.6)21 (+5.6)23 (+5.6)24 (+7.1)
1Carson Wentz7528393133045028.

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs NYG65253240540412037.537.533.436.4
2PROJ-Dodds23332561.70.74140.322.122.122.1 (H=55)22.1 (H=67)
2PROJ-Tremblay21322311.60.84160.320.620.620.6 (H=49)20.6 (H=59)
2PROJ-Bloom223125220.53100.222.322.322.3 (H=56)22.3 (H=68)

Redskins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-4.2)12 (-3.7)13 (-2.0)13T (-2.3)
1Darren Sproles239470331606.39.39.811.3
1Jordan Howard176440321105.

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $8700)

1vs NYG371353121.010012.313.312.813.3
2PROJ-Dodds18840.63.4270.115.318.717.0 (H=31)18.7 (H=36)
2PROJ-Tremblay20920.63.5250.115.919.417.7 (H=34)19.4 (H=39)
2PROJ-Bloom199112.0170.117.419.418.4 (H=36)19.4 (H=39)

Tony Pollard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs NYG221324000.0002.
2PROJ-Dodds6230.11.0603.54.54.0 (H=4)4.5 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay5190.20.0003.13.13.1 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom6220.21.0904.35.34.8 (H=6)5.3 (H=9)

Redskins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+19.1)29 (+20.7)30 (+20.1)30 (+22.0)
1DeSean Jackson52108154200027.435.431.438.4
1Alshon Jeffery606549112117.122.119.622.1

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7400)

1vs NYG5296.0106100016.622.619.625.6
2PROJ-Dodds5.3730.500010.315.613.0 (H=21)15.6 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.4740.500010.415.813.1 (H=22)15.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0710.600010.715.713.2 (H=22)15.7 (H=31)

Michael Gallup (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs NYG5377.0158000015.822.819.325.8
2PROJ-Dodds4.1560.4000812.110.1 (H=17)12.1 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.5490.30006.710.28.5 (H=13)10.2 (H=19)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0660.50009.614.612.1 (H=24)14.6 (H=37)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs NYG4854.069100012.916.914.916.9
2PROJ-Dodds3.0340.30005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.8310.20004.37.15.7 (H=7)7.1 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=19)

Tavon Austin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs NYG2511.0800000.
2PROJ-Dodds1.0100000121.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0601300.91.91.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)

Redskins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.4)22 (+1.6)19 (+0.6)22 (+1.3)
1Zach Ertz62755405.410.47.910.4

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs NYG4543.01517.510.59.010.5
2PROJ-Dodds2.5230.23.564.8 (H=6)6.0 (H=13)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.3240. (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0190. (H=7)6.7 (H=15)

Blake Jarwin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs NYG2733.03919.912.911.412.9
2PROJ-Dodds2.0200. (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.8170. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0230. (H=6)5.5 (H=13)

Redskins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (-0.8)17T (-0.8)15T (-1.5) (+0.0)
1Jake Elliott1133666.06.0

Brett Maher (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs NYG0055555.05.0

Redskins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-5.1)4T (-5.1)9 (-5.8)9 (-5.8)
1Philadelphia Eagles2739810000111.01.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs NYG17.0047010200556.06.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.403552.50.90.700. (H=18)8.8 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.753292.10.90.800. (H=21)9.5 (H=29)

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.3)16 (-1.3)11 (-5.4)16 (-1.9)
1Eli Manning6430443061016019.919.914.818.8

Case Keenum (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ PHI67304438030000313127.230.2
2PROJ-Dodds22342261.30.9260.116.816.816.8 (H=38)16.8 (H=53)
2PROJ-Tremblay21332291.30.9250.116.816.816.8 (H=38)16.8 (H=53)
2PROJ-Bloom21372061.4113015.215.215.2 (H=32)15.2 (H=44)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+5.6)26 (+7.1)23 (+6.3)28 (+9.5)
1Saquon Barkley551112006419013.917.915.920.9
1Wayne Gallman1421713324010.113.111.613.1

Adrian Peterson (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ PHI000000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds15560.41.1808.89.99.4 (H=20)9.9 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay13490.40.6507.88.48.1 (H=15)8.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom15520.41.0508.19.18.6 (H=17)9.1 (H=26)

Chris Thompson (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ PHI433100107.06807.814.811.314.8
2PROJ-Dodds5180.14.8360.27.2129.6 (H=18)12.0 (H=37)
2PROJ-Tremblay4150.15.6420.27.513.110.3 (H=21)13.1 (H=44)
2PROJ-Bloom3904.0330. (H=12)9.4 (H=24)

Wendell Smallwood (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ PHI000000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2100.11.0602.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay4150.11.19034.13.6 (H=4)4.1 (H=7)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-10.9)10 (-10.3)11 (-10.4)10 (-12.0)
1Cody Latimer61837400007.410.48.910.4
1Sterling Shepard68764200004.

Terry McLaurin (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ PHI6275.0125100018.523.521.026.5
2PROJ-Dodds4.3560.4000812.310.2 (H=21)12.3 (H=40)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.0400.20005.28.26.7 (H=10)8.2 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0590.40008.313.310.8 (H=23)13.3 (H=46)

Paul Richardson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ PHI5274.03600003.
2PROJ-Dodds3.4430.30006.19.57.8 (H=14)9.5 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0420.30006108.0 (H=15)10.0 (H=26)

Trey Quinn (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ PHI6564.03310009.313.311.313.3
2PROJ-Dodds3.2350.20004.77.96.4 (H=9)8.0 (H=18)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.5340.20004.67.15.9 (H=8)7.2 (H=15)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0350.30005.39.37.4 (H=12)9.4 (H=24)

Kelvin Harmon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ PHI1522.03100003.
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.8110.10001.72.52.1 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+11.0)31 (+18.0)31 (+14.5)31 (+20.7)
1Evan Engram531411116117.628.623.131.6

Vernon Davis (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ PHI5574.059111.915.913.915.9
2PROJ-Dodds3.2360.24.886.4 (H=9)8.0 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.3300. (H=7)6.5 (H=15)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0320. (H=8)7.4 (H=20)

Jordan Reed (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ PHI000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.3130. (H=1)3.2 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-1.8)13T (-1.8)11T (-2.5) (+0.0)
1Aldrick Rosas1122555.05.0

Dustin Hopkins (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ PHI22339911.011.0

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.1)1T (-6.1)1T (-10.8)1T (-10.8)
1New York Giants354940000000-4.0-4.0

Washington Redskins (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2300)

1@ PHI32.0043610000110.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds27.204002.60.70.600. (H=15)6.6 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay25.753582.10.80.600. (H=17)7.1 (H=25)