Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 21, Titans 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense24.0 (-0.2) (18)203 (+95) (2)173 (-90) (27)
Titans Defense13.0 (-11.2) (6)102 (-6) (16)244 (-19) (15)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense43.0 (+18.8) (2)123 (+15) (11)216 (-47) (21)
Colts Defense30.0 (+5.8) (24)125 (+17) (23)310 (+46) (21)

Colts Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Marlon Mack saw the heaviest workload of any running back in Week 1, finishing with 25 carries and a league-leading 174 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown. With no Andrew Luck, the Colts gameplan centered around Mack--particularly in the second half where he picked up 153 of those 174 rushing yards. The offensive line looked as good as advertised, picking up where they left off last season as a top-tier unit that easily opened massive running lanes for Mack. Nyheim Hines, as expected, saw a light workload on the ground with just four carries. Jacoby Brissett has shown flashes of mobility throughout his career, so keep an eye on him for minor contributions in the rushing department.

The Titans run defense was good, but not great, in last week’s game against the Browns. They held Nick Chubb to 75 rushing yards on 17 carries, averaging a decent 4.4 yards per attempt. The game script had the Browns playing from behind from much of the second half while penalties put them in too many passing situations to get going on the ground--otherwise, that stat line for Chubb could have been better. Jurrell Casey didn’t play up to his normal level as he may still be slowed by that late-season knee injury from 2018. DaQuan Jones played a solid game at nose tackle, but the Titans linebackers struggled against the run with Rashaan Evans. The Browns offensive line was ranked in the lower half of the league by Footballguys specialist Matt Bitonti, whereas the Colts are an elite unit ranked near the top-five. This Titans front seven will need to play much better to stop Marlon Mack after what he and this offensive line did last week.

Colts Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Colts passing offense was relatively quiet in Week 1 as they ran a run-heavy game plan focused on feeding Marlon Mack. Jacoby Brissett managed to complete 21-of-27 pass attempts for 190 yards and two touchdowns--a relatively efficient stat line. Brissett took great care of the ball and was poised under pressure. T.Y. Hilton saw a third of the total targets for this passing offense, hauling in eight of nine for 87 yards and two touchdowns. He was clearly the focal point of this passing offense as no other player was targeted more than five times. Wide receiver Devin Funchess suffered a broken collarbone in Week 1, landing himself on Injured Reserve. Funchess was the WR2 in this offense, so his absence will vacate a share of targets that should create an opportunity for rookie Parris Campbell to step up. Brissett targeted his tight ends just five times (two for Jack Doyle, three for Eric Ebron) with Doyle hauling in a 20-yarder. Running back Nyhiem Hines was the recipient of four fruitless dump-offs and screens, serving his normal role as the check-down option. The offensive line held up reasonably well under strong pressure from a pair of talented Chargers edge rushers, giving up just two sacks on the day.

While the Titans defense was certainly aided by sloppy play from the Browns offense in Week 1, they still put up a very strong showing--particularly against the pass. With three interceptions and five sacks, it was a dominant showing by this young group. The veteran Cameron Wake actually shined the brightest though, as he was a force to be reckoned with on the defensive line. Wake was consistently in the Browns backfield as he racked up four hits on the quarterback and 2.5 sacks, one of which was for a safety. The NFL’s top-paid safety Kevin Byard began earning his money quickly as he hauled in an interception while cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan added in with interceptions of their own. Despite this strong showing in Week 1, there will still be matchups to exploit for the Colts--particularly with T.Y. Hilton squaring off against Malcolm Butler. Hilton has the quickness to find separation over the veteran Butler, just as he did in their last matchup when Hilton put up 155 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 of 2018. The Colts offensive line also represents a much tougher challenge for the Titans front seven as the Colts get the nod in the trenches.

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Derrick Henry is off to a hot start in 2019 as he was the clear cut lead running back for the Titans, finishing with 19 carries for 84 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Titans went to Henry in the red zone and on the goal line last week as he punched in that touchdown from the 1-yard line. Dion Lewis was an afterthought, receiving just three carries that went for nowhere. The Titans offensive line was down two starters last week with left tackle Taylor Lewan serving his four-game suspension while right guard Kevin Pamphile was inactive due to a knee injury. While the offensive line noticeably struggled in pass protection, they held together reasonably well when blocking for Derrick Henry, allowing him to average 4.4 yards per attempt. Right tackle Jack Conklin, in particular, looked great as he appears back to good form with health on his side. While Lewan will remain out this week and Pamphile’s status is questionable, it looks like this line can hold their own even when short-staffed.

The Colts front seven had a tough time containing Chargers rushers last week as they allowed an average of 6.4 rushing yards per attempt with long runs of 19 and 24 yards. Linebacker Darius Leonard had a mediocre start coming off his impressive rookie season, so his performance will be something to watch since he plays a critical role in the effectiveness of this run defense. The left side of this defensive line also struggled in run defense last week, which poses an opportunity for the Titans as their strong side is currently on the right with Jack Conklin. Justin Houston, on the other hand, was solid in his Colts debut and should present a matchup challenge for backup left tackle Dennis Kelly. If defensive end Jabaal Sheard can make it back on the field this week, it will dampen the outlook for the Titans as Sheard is a talent upgrade opposite Houston and would be a tougher matchup for Conklin to handle.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Titans offense put up some relatively flashy numbers in last week’s win against the Browns, but the performance of Marcus Mariota still left much to be desired. Mariota was inaccurate for most of the game, noticeably missing on anything other than wide-open receivers. He amassed 248 passing yards, with 172 of those coming from three passes--one of which was an easy screen to Derrick Henry who took it to the house from 75 yards out. Rookie receiver A.J. Brown was another standout for the Titans, amassing 100 receiving yards in his NFL debut. Brown hauled in a couple of deep balls in this one, displaying the big play ability he was scouted for. Delanie Walker also made a triumphant return to the field last week with his first game with multiple touchdowns since 2015. Walker reminded everyone how dangerous of a red-zone weapon he can be for this offense with both touchdowns coming from within 11-yards of the end zone. Corey Davis, on the other hand, was a massive disappointment as he struggled under tough coverage and finished with zero receptions in Week 1. This week, the Titans will likely force Davis more targets as he sees an easier cornerback matchup. However, he will be tough to trust--especially considering how inconsistent Mariota was with the ball last week.

The Colts secondary allowed Phillip Rivers to average nearly 10 yards per pass attempt on his way to 333 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. This Colts secondary takes a team-based approach rather than individual playmakers, as no single player has proven to have game-changing talent. However, Malik Hooker is certainly making a case after his highlight reel interception in the end zone last week. Slot receiver Adam Humphries should be in a good spot against Kenny Moore based on the success Keenan Allen had from the slot last week. Both Corey Davis and A.J. Brown are also in decent spots, while Delanie Walker should find success if the Colts linebackers play as poorly in coverage as they did in Week 1. The Colts defensive line started strong though, as second-year Kemoko Turay was particularly impressive in limited snaps. He finishing with five pressures from just 18 pass-rush snaps, which also included a sack and a forced fumble. Justin Houston also had an impressive debut with the Colts and will be in a decent spot against backup left tackle Dennis Kelly this week. This Titans offensive line did give up four sacks last week, so with up to two starters still missing, there is an opportunity for Mariota to be under pressure yet again this week.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-7.3)10 (-7.3)8 (-7.1)8 (-8.5)
1Baker Mayfield7325382851300015.315.312.412.4

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ LAC6321271902039018.418.416.516.5
2PROJ-Dodds22342361.40.82100.218.818.818.8 (H=53)18.8 (H=64)
2PROJ-Tremblay25402711.31290. (H=55)19.2 (H=66)
2PROJ-Bloom19271891.60.54140.117.417.417.4 (H=46)17.4 (H=56)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.2)18 (+1.7)18T (+1.4)18 (+1.1)
1Nick Chubb5117750431008.511.510.011.5
1Dontrell Hilliard13141211407.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5900)

1@ LAC4825174100.00023.423.425.428.4
2PROJ-Dodds19840.51.19012.313.412.8 (H=22)13.4 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay19800.51.07011.712.712.2 (H=20)12.7 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom20810.50.00011.111.111.1 (H=17)11.1 (H=21)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ LAC17413044.0401.
2PROJ-Dodds4130.13.3230. (H=9)8.1 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay3120.14.2280. (H=11)9.4 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom31103.0200. (H=6)6.7 (H=14)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-5.4)15 (-3.8)14 (-4.4)14 (-5.5)
1Jarvis Landry737467011007.711.79.711.7
1Odell Beckham731177100007.114.110.614.1

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6800)

1@ LAC5698.087200020.728.724.728.7
2PROJ-Dodds5.7790.400010.31613.2 (H=22)16.0 (H=35)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.9860.300010.416.313.4 (H=23)16.3 (H=36)
2PROJ-Bloom7.0730.700011.518.515.0 (H=28)18.5 (H=46)

Deon Cain (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ LAC1122.03500003.
2PROJ-Dodds2.7360.20004.87.56.2 (H=10)7.5 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.6460.20005.89.47.6 (H=14)9.4 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0470.30006.59.58.0 (H=16)9.5 (H=32)

Parris Campbell (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ LAC1811.0101700.
2PROJ-Dodds1.8180.11402.84.63.7 (H=3)4.6 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.1270.11403.75.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom1.050.11801.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Chester Rogers (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ LAC2500.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.5150.10002.13.62.9 (H=2)3.7 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.6160.10002.23.83.1 (H=3)3.9 (H=6)

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ LAC2300.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.7800000.81.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.3)20T (+1.3)22 (+1.8)20T (+1.0)
1David Njoku66643719.713.711.713.7

Eric Ebron (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ LAC2531.0800.
2PROJ-Dodds2.6270. (H=7)7.1 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6270. (H=6)6.5 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0190. (H=4)5.1 (H=8)

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ LAC4321.0200232.53.0
2PROJ-Dodds2.4210. (H=3)5.1 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.9170. (H=2)4.2 (H=7)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=4)5.3 (H=11)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ LAC1311.0300.
2PROJ-Dodds0.980. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.980. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1.040.1121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.8)4 (-5.8)4 (-6.5) (+0.0)
1Austin Seibert0012111.01.0

Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ LAC1312445.05.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (-0.1)17T (-0.1)4T (-6.8)4T (-6.8)
1Cleveland Browns4333940010660.00.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ LAC30.0043541100887.07.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.403662. (H=18)7.6 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.753221.70.80.700.5888.0 (H=20)8.0 (H=29)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+5.7)22 (+5.7)22 (+5.5)23 (+7.0)
1Philip Rivers6425343333116028.328.324.927.9

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ CLE59142424830324026.826.824.324.3
2PROJ-Dodds19282111.20.85230. (H=40)18.1 (H=60)
2PROJ-Tremblay17271941.10.86270. (H=37)17.2 (H=55)
2PROJ-Bloom17281681.40.83160.115.415.415.4 (H=30)15.4 (H=45)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+21.2)31 (+22.7)31 (+21.9)31 (+22.1)
1Austin Ekeler48125817696233.439.436.439.4
1Justin Jackson16657031406.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6000)

1@ CLE361984121.075127.928.928.428.9
2PROJ-Dodds19840.81.411014.315.715.0 (H=29)15.7 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay219011.411016.117.516.8 (H=35)17.5 (H=47)
2PROJ-Bloom20750. (H=22)13.4 (H=29)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CLE2637043.0601.
2PROJ-Dodds4150.12.7180. (H=8)7.2 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay3120.13.0230. (H=9)7.7 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom370.13.0110.1364.5 (H=5)6.0 (H=11)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-3.6)14 (-4.0)16 (-3.6)15 (-2.7)
1Keenan Allen53108123100018.326.322.329.3
1Mike Williams41322900002.

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ CLE4530.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.4470.30006.59.98.2 (H=13)9.9 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6380.200057.66.3 (H=8)7.6 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0440.30006.29.27.7 (H=12)9.2 (H=20)

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CLE2643.01000000101311.516.0
2PROJ-Dodds3.2440.30006.29.47.8 (H=12)9.4 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.3320.20004.46.75.6 (H=7)6.7 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom3.0480.30006.69.68.1 (H=13)9.6 (H=25)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

1@ CLE2211.0500000.
2PROJ-Dodds1.9210.10002.74.63.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.6190.10002.54.13.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0110.10001.73.72.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=4)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ CLE3020.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.01200001.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-1.0)16 (-1.0)16T (-1.0)16 (-1.3)
1Hunter Henry58546006.

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ CLE2965.055217.522.520.022.5
2PROJ-Dodds4.2450.36.310.58.4 (H=13)10.5 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.7420.369.77.9 (H=12)9.7 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0390.56.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=35)

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ CLE3711.0701.
2PROJ-Dodds0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.670. (H=1)1.9 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)

MyCole Pruitt (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CLE3410.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=1)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.8)1T (-6.8)1T (-7.5) (+0.0)
1Mike Badgley0000000.00.0

Cairo Santos (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CLE2255111113.013.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.1)9 (-4.1)10T (-4.8)10T (-4.8)
1Los Angeles Chargers2437620000222.02.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CLE13.0034653001171723.023.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.003732.50.80.700.3888.0 (H=15)8.0 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.753752.610.800. (H=21)9.6 (H=32)