Matchup Analysis: Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bears 22, Broncos 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense3.0 (-21.2) (32)46 (-62) (28)208 (-55) (23)
Broncos Defense24.0 (-0.2) (15)98 (-10) (14)259 (-4) (17)

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense16.0 (-8.2) (26)95 (-13) (21)249 (-14) (17)
Bears Defense10.0 (-14.2) (3)47 (-61) (6)166 (-97) (5)

Bears Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

The Bears offense put forth a poor showing in their season opener against the Packers last week. As the entire offense struggled, so did their rushing game as Bears running backs combined for just 37 rushing yards on 11 attempts. With Tarik Cohen lining up on 70% of the snaps and Mitchell Trubisky attempting 46 passes, there was no room to establish much of a ground game. Mike Davis out-snapped rookie David Montgomery 41-to-28, but Montgomery saw six carries to the five allotted to Davis. While Montgomery may be poised to take over this backfield eventually based on his talent profile, this will continue to be a committee between Montgomery and Davis as game script permits. The Bears offensive line also had a poor showing as they were thrown around in the trenches by the Packers, which certainly did not help the ground game get rolling.

The Broncos defense had a tough time with Josh Jacobs and the Raiders in their season opener, allowing Jacobs to rush for 85 yards and two touchdowns. While the interior of their defensive line played well, it was the absence of Todd Davis at linebacker that hurt the Broncos as they could have used Davis as one of their top run-stoppers on defense. Davis remains questionable with a calf injury, so his status will be worth monitoring this week. The Broncos edge defenders Bradley Chubb and Von Miller both turned in a subpar Week 1 performance as they struggled in their matchups against what should have been beatable offensive tackles from the Raiders. It is tough to over-react based on one week, but this Broncos defensive line will need to step up in what should, again, be a winnable matchup for them against a Chicago defensive line that was tossed around by the Packers last week.

Bears Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Mitchell Trubisky’s reportedly uninspiring training camp and preseason may have been indicative of the terrible performance he showed in the season opener last week. He completed just 57.7 percent of his pass attempts for 228 yards and one interception while getting sacked five times. Trubisky was quick to try and use his legs instead of going through his progressions, partially because of the constant pressure he was under as his offensive line lost in the trenches. Both Allen Robinson and Tarik Cohen had some success through the air though, as they combined to represent over half the targets from Trubisky. Robinson led the way with 13 targets, converting seven of those for 102 yards as he looked sharp. Tarik Cohen finished with a team-leading eight receptions for 49 yards, serving as a safety valve for the oft-panicked Trubisky. Cohen actually took the majority of snaps from the slot instead of coming out of the backfield, running short intermediate routes to offer a quick option for Trubisky. Mike Davis also chipped in with six receptions from seven targets, even further proving the point that Trubisky struggled to go through his progressions with how often he was relying on his running backs for quick, short targets. Tight end Trey Burton appears to be on track for his season debut after missing Week 1 with a groin injury, but he will need a much-improved performance from Trubisky to make an impact in this one.

The Broncos secondary did a decent job in their season opener, but they were slightly hamstrung by how ineffective the pass rush was. Derek Carr had as much time as he needed as Broncos pass rushers got virtually no pressure on him throughout the night. It also did not help that cornerback Bryce Callahan was sidelined as he continues to battle a foot injury that has plagued him on and off since last season. Callahan will be a big loss for this secondary if unable to suit up against his former team this week, as he otherwise would have been a tough matchup for the likes of Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel on the outside. Kareem Jackson was the best cornerback for this secondary and should present a challenge for Robinson on most snaps. Isaac Yiadom, on the other hand, was a liability for the Broncos and will be a positive matchup for both Robinson and Gabriel as they rotate sides.

Broncos Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Broncos backfield was led by almost a dead-even split between Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay saw one more carry and just four more snaps than Freeman, but Lindsay was the less effective back as he noticeably struggled with vision and burst through what were relatively tiny running lanes. Lindsay had just 14 yards going into halftime and simply never got the momentum going throughout that game. Freeman, on the other hand, looked much better as he averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and had an impressive 26-yard run. Rookie left guard Dalton Risner also had a great start to his NFL career as he played as the best lineman in that group alongside Todd Bolles, making for a strong left side. Broncos right tackle Ja’Wuan James exited last week’s game after just 10 snaps with a knee injury though, so depending on his status, this unit could be downgraded overall as their right side was noticeably weaker without him.

The Bears run defense performed admirably in Week 1, holding the Packers to just 47 rushing yards with lead running back Aaron Jones averaging a meager 3.0 yards per carry. Nose tackle Eddie Goldman was constantly clogging lanes in the middle while Khalil Mack was his usual MVP-caliber self as he made plays all night. Alongside Goldman and Mack, Akiem Hicks and Roy Robertson-Harris rotated throughout the night and both were disruptive forces against the run. While Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is no direct replacement for Adrian Amos, Clinton-Dix actually performed very well against the run as he was their top defensive back contributor. Where the Bears can improve will be the play from their linebackers, as neither Danny Trevathan nor Roquan Smith played up to their potential. With decent, but not spectacular, play from the Broncos offensive line, the Bears remain as a clear favorite in this matchup.

Broncos Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Joe Flacco had a disappointing debut as a Bronco, completing just 21-of-31 pass attempts and just one touchdown, which came on the final drive against a prevent defense. Flacco was under some pressure throughout the night as his offensive line had a tough time in pass protection, and he was not the most accurate on a number of throws throughout the night. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is not complaining after Week 1, however, as he finished as the top receiver with seven receptions from eight targets and 120 yards. Sutton was a favorite target of Flacco and showed some solid chemistry, appearing to be the top option in the passing game for the Broncos. Emmanuel Sanders was not far behind though, as he too finished with a strong stat line of five receptions for 86 yards and the lone touchdown despite being held to just one catch before halftime. Phillip Lindsay was also involved through the air with four receptions for 23 yards as he made some hay on dump-offs. Beyond these three, there appeared to be no other relevant options in this passing offense--especially as tight end Noah Fant seemed to struggle in his NFL debut.

The Bears played a strong game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week, limiting them to just 203 passing yards and a single passing touchdown. Both Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara were sharp in coverage as no single Bears wide receiver had more than four receptions--including Davante Adams who could haul in just half of his targets for 36 yards under this tight coverage. Even Buster Skrine--the newcomer and noted weak link in this cornerback group--had a solid showing as he didn’t allow a reception in limited snaps from the slot. He faces a higher level of talent this week though, as slot receiver Emmanuel Sanders should have the edge in his matchup. The Bears defensive line also showed out well as they racked up seven hits and five sacks on Rodgers. With an offensive line that struggled against a mediocre Raiders defensive front and matchup disadvantages for his outside receivers, Joe Flacco should be in for a long game this Sunday.

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-5.4)12 (-5.4)13 (-4.9)12 (-6.4)
1Derek Carr5822262591022017.217.214.614.6

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs GB73264522801311011.511.59.29.2
2PROJ-Dodds21342201.315250.218.918.918.9 (H=47)18.9 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay22342401.41.16310.220.820.820.8 (H=56)20.8 (H=69)
2PROJ-Bloom22342051.214170.2171717.0 (H=39)17.0 (H=49)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+5.7)17 (+1.2)22 (+3.4)17 (+0.6)
1Josh Jacobs43238521128023.324.323.824.3
1DeAndre Washington528000000.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs GB28618011.02704.
2PROJ-Dodds12460.31.31107.58.88.2 (H=13)8.8 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay10420.30.5406.46.96.7 (H=9)6.9 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom11470.52.0170.1101211.0 (H=21)12.0 (H=30)

Mike Davis (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs GB41519076.01703.
2PROJ-Dodds7320.22.9180. (H=15)9.7 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay8360.23.5250.17.911.49.7 (H=20)11.4 (H=41)
2PROJ-Bloom7310.33.0140. (H=16)9.9 (H=32)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs GB51000108.04904.912.98.912.9
2PROJ-Dodds31104.4410.26.410.88.7 (H=13)10.9 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay2705.0470.26.611.69.2 (H=15)11.7 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom140.15.0410.26.311.38.9 (H=14)11.4 (H=30)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-6.4)11 (-7.8)13 (-6.9)13 (-6.5)
1Tyrell Williams5576105100016.522.519.525.5
1Ryan Grant41431600001.

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6100)

1vs GB70137.0102000010.217.213.720.2
2PROJ-Dodds4.8630.40008.713.511.1 (H=17)13.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.1570.30007.511.69.6 (H=13)11.6 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0750.40009.915.912.9 (H=23)15.9 (H=39)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs GB6752.02400002.
2PROJ-Dodds2.8310.20004.37.15.7 (H=8)7.1 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.5280.200046.55.3 (H=7)6.5 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs GB1610.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.5190.20003.14.63.9 (H=4)4.6 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=2)3.9 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs GB2031.0301-
2PROJ-Dodds1.0701601.32.31.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.56021101.72.22.0 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
2PROJ-Bloom1.050.11401.52.52.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=2)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs GB2120.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.7800000.81.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.9120.10001.82.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)25 (+5.6)24 (+3.6)25 (+5.3)
1Darren Waller58877007.014.010.514.0

Adam Shaheen (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs GB3421.0600.
2PROJ-Dodds1.1140.123.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0170. (H=3)4.3 (H=8)

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs GB000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.6290. (H=6)6.7 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (-0.8)17T (-0.8)15T (-1.5) (+0.0)
1Daniel Carlson1133666.06.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs GB1100333.03.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-3.1)10T (-3.1)13 (-2.8)13 (-2.8)
1Oakland Raiders1634430000334.04.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs GB10.0021350000559.09.0
2PROJ-Dodds21.503482.510.800. (H=20)9.2 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay19.003422.30.90.900.510.410.410.4 (H=25)10.4 (H=29)

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-7.6)9 (-7.6)9 (-6.5)9 (-8.0)
1Aaron Rodgers6418302031038015.015.012.912.9

Joe Flacco (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ OAK6421312681011017.517.514.814.8
2PROJ-Dodds21352231.20.913015.415.415.4 (H=35)15.4 (H=46)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362431.20.913016.416.416.4 (H=39)16.4 (H=51)
2PROJ-Bloom183316610.711011.711.711.7 (H=22)11.7 (H=28)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-13.3)2 (-15.8)2 (-14.6)2 (-16.4)
1Aaron Jones381339011003.
1Jamaal Williams26500221501.

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ OAK341143064.02306.610.68.610.6
2PROJ-Dodds11500.43.3220.110.213.511.9 (H=22)13.5 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay12540.45.1350.111.91714.5 (H=31)17.0 (H=58)
2PROJ-Bloom11390.33.0200.18.311.39.8 (H=15)11.3 (H=28)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ OAK301056011.0506.
2PROJ-Dodds11450.31.17078.17.6 (H=11)8.1 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay11430.30.8606.77.57.1 (H=10)7.5 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom9350.31.0405.76.76.2 (H=7)6.7 (H=14)

Devontae Booker (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ OAK100000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0000. (H=0)0.6 (H=0)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-14.9)2 (-19.3)3 (-16.9)2 (-21.0)
1Marquez Valdes-Scantling42645201005.
1Davante Adams62843600003.

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ OAK5787.01200000121915.522.0
2PROJ-Dodds4.9660.30008.413.310.9 (H=21)13.3 (H=42)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.9730.30009.11411.6 (H=23)14.0 (H=46)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0520.30007129.5 (H=16)12.0 (H=35)

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ OAK5775.086100014.619.617.119.6
2PROJ-Dodds4.3550.30007.311.69.5 (H=17)11.6 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay5.1630.30008.113.210.7 (H=21)13.2 (H=37)
2PROJ-Bloom5.0530.30007.112.19.6 (H=17)12.1 (H=31)

DaeSean Hamilton (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ OAK4942.0500000.
2PROJ-Dodds2.5300.20004.26.75.5 (H=6)6.7 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.7300.20004.26.95.6 (H=7)6.9 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0110.10001.73.72.7 (H=1)3.7 (H=5)

Tim Patrick (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ OAK800.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.8)27 (+6.8)27 (+6.3)27 (+6.5)
1Jimmy Graham35633019.012.010.512.0

Noah Fant (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ OAK5252.02902.
2PROJ-Dodds2.6260. (H=6)6.4 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.5360. (H=10)8.3 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0260. (H=4)5.2 (H=11)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ OAK2100.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.8)8T (-2.8)8T (-3.5) (+0.0)
1Mason Crosby1111444.04.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ OAK3411101010.010.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.9)19T (+0.9)28T (+7.2)28T (+7.2)
1Green Bay Packers3254510007714.014.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

1@ OAK24.0035700000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.703722. (H=20)9.2 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay21.503662.210.700. (H=19)8.8 (H=32)