Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at New York Giants

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 23, Giants 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense17.0 (-7.2) (24)128 (+20) (8)242 (-21) (19)
Giants Defense35.0 (+10.8) (29)89 (-19) (11)405 (+141) (32)

New York Giants Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Giants Offense17.0 (-7.2) (22)151 (+43) (6)319 (+55) (10)
Bills Defense16.0 (-8.2) (8)68 (-40) (7)155 (-108) (2)

Bills Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Giants defense.

The Bills rushing attack likely is going to see a changing of the guard sooner rather than later. Frank Gore ran for just 20 yards on 11 carries, while rookie Devin Singletary had just four carries but looked explosive rushing for 70 yards with every carry being longer than 12 yards. Singletary scored 66 touchdowns in his three seasons at Florida Atlantic rushing for 6.0 yards per carry. The Bills offensive line did struggle, particularly up the middle as there was very little room for Frank Gore to get through and he was met with a defender almost immediately when running between the tackles. Josh Allen continues to be a threat on the ground as he ran the ball 10 times and was able to score a touchdown on the ground as he adds a factor to this offense that can more than make up for the lack of talent on the offensive line.

The Giants rushing defense looks to be an improved unit at least in Week 1 after last season having one of the worst rushing attacks in football after they traded Damon Harrison. The Giants held the Cowboys tandem of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott to just 2.96 yards per carry. Jabrill Peppers seems to be the biggest addition to this defense as the run-stopping specialist had seven tackles this past week and was all over the place against the run. B.J. Hill and Dalvin Tomlinson both who have been inconsistent throughout their career were able to put together a solid game in this one and keep the elite Cowboys offensive line from creating big holes for Elliott and Pollard to run through in this game. In what could have been a game script that created a lack of motivation leading to big runs, this is a unit that fought up until the final whistle which was encouraging to see and while it is still an incredibly flawed unit at the linebacker position with Alec Ogletree and Tae Davis, it got off to an encouraging start week one.

Bills Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Giants defense.

Josh Allen struggled for a majority of the first half as he threw two interceptions early, but in the second half, he was in more control of this offense and led the team to a comeback for the win. Allen looked uncomfortable in the first half, often tucking the ball and running instead of staying the pocket and finding an open receiver as he ran the ball eight times in the first half compared to just twice in the second half. The Bills utilized newcomers at the wide receiver position in John Brown who gave the Jets all they could handle as he caught 7 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown and no one on the Jets could keep up with his electric speed. Cole Beasley out of the slot also an offseason acquisition provided a nice check-down option for Allen and this passing attack, while rookie running back Devin Singletary was also able to get involved with five receptions in this game. Expect this to be an offense that is going to have to continue to make adjustments and evolve as defensive coordinators will continue to test Josh Allen’s arm throughout the year by doing different things such as taking John Brown away and having to make him go through a different option.

The Giants secondary showed no signs of improvements in the offseason this past week. After giving up the second-most passing yards last season, they got torched by Dak Prescott in this game as they allowed 405 yards and 4 touchdowns to the Cowboys. The Giants secondary are lucky that the Cowboys took their foot off the gas, as it could have been more as the Cowboys threw the ball just six times in the second half of this game and just twice in the fourth quarter as they ground out a win. The Giants are learning the hard way the problem with Jabrill Peppers being on the field as the Browns have shown the past several seasons as while he is a great run defender is he a liability as a coverage safety and a significant downgrade from Landon Collins last season. The Giants rotated corners through trying to find someone to pair with Janoris Jenkins and were mostly unsuccessful as Grant Haley, Antonio Hamilton, and Deandre Baker all saw time, but all had very similar results in coverage in this one. With Janoris Jenkins no longer being the elite cornerback that we saw early in his career, this is likely to once again be one of the worst secondaries in football this season and should open up a great opportunity for Josh Allen to once again have success through the air.

Giants Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Even in a game script that did not favor the Giants rushing attack, Saquon Barkley was dominant rushing for 120 yards on just 11 carries. While the offensive line is still a below-average unit, this is likely the best offensive line that the Giants have had in several seasons as the trade for Kevin Zeitler is already paying dividends, and second-year offensive guard Will Hernandez looks much improved from last season as well. Barkley is their best player by far and the team needs to remain committed to the run regardless of the score especially in the first half as the Giants were only down no more than a touchdown until 1 minute left in the first half. Barkley had just five carries for 73 yards in the first half which has to change if the Giants want any resemblance of a balanced offense.

The Bills have spent a lot on their front seven over the past several seasons and after a league-average defense last season, it appears that the Bills rushing defense is beginning to become elite. Ed Oliver who at one time was in consideration for the number one overall pick slid to the Bills as the 9th overall pick and played tremendously out snapping veteran Star Lotulelei. Oliver did a great job eating space and keeping offensive lineman off of linebackers Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano alongside the elite safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. If this defensive line can continue to keep the offensive line from getting to the second level, this rushing defense could be a force all season. However, with Oliver being a rookie and playing 69% of the snaps at defensive tackle expect some inconsistency from week-to-week, but they are off to a great start.

Giants Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Eli Manning is going to get a lot of hate for his performance, and the team brought in Daniel Jones once the game got out of hand. The reality is that Manning with no Golden Tate and no Odell Beckham did not play that poorly. He completed 68% of his passes with most of the offense running through tight end Evan Engram who had a monster game with 11 receptions for 116 yards. Manning did not turn the ball over, and the offensive line did a decent job in protection with just one sack against one of the best secondaries in football. This is an offense that while they had drives stall out because of penalties or ill-timed incompletions, exceeded most of our expectations.

The Bills secondary continued its dominant performance that we saw last season where it was one of the best secondaries in football allowing just 179 yards per game. The Bills secondary is led by shut-down corner Tre’Davious White and second-year player Levi Wallace who continues his tremendous play from last season. If there is a weakness in this secondary it is slot corner Taron Johnson who struggled last week in defending Jamison Crowder who caught 14 passes. The Bills safeties are also top-notch in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The pass rush for the Bills continues to be a dominant force as they got to Sam Darnold four times last week. All-in-all this is one of the top defenses in football and should give the Giants all they can handle this week.

Giants vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+14.9)31 (+14.9)31 (+13.9)31 (+15.5)
1Dak Prescott65253240540412037.537.533.436.4

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ NYJ692437254121038124.524.518.020.0
2PROJ-Dodds20332171.21.17440.421.421.421.4 (H=53)21.4 (H=76)
2PROJ-Tremblay20342211.31.17430.421.821.821.8 (H=55)21.8 (H=78)
2PROJ-Bloom21322061.11.29340.318.718.718.7 (H=42)18.7 (H=60)

Giants vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-4.0)7 (-8.5)8T (-6.3)7 (-9.1)
1Ezekiel Elliott37135312110012.313.312.813.3
1Tony Pollard221324000002.

Devin Singletary (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ NYJ48470065.02809.814.812.314.8
2PROJ-Dodds12480.33.0230.19.512.511.0 (H=22)12.5 (H=37)
2PROJ-Tremblay8340.32.9220.1810.99.5 (H=17)10.9 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom11510.34.0260. (H=26)14.1 (H=46)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ NYJ191120000.000222.02.0
2PROJ-Dodds9380.31.0606.27.26.7 (H=11)7.2 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay12530.31.29089.28.6 (H=16)9.2 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom10350.30.0005.35.35.3 (H=7)5.3 (H=10)

Patrick DiMarco (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ NYJ3300022.0900.
2PROJ-Dodds0001.0600. (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.6400.410.71.0 (H=0)

T.J. Yeldon (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ NYJ200000.000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Giants vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+19.6)32 (+24.2)32 (+22.1)32 (+28.5)
1Amari Cooper5296106100016.622.619.625.6
1Michael Gallup5377158000015.822.819.325.8

John Brown (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ NYJ59107.0123100018.325.321.828.3
2PROJ-Dodds4.4650.30008.312.710.5 (H=18)12.7 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.8590.30007.711.59.6 (H=15)11.5 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0780.500010.816.813.8 (H=29)16.8 (H=50)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ NYJ4895.0400000496.59.0
2PROJ-Dodds4.4430.30006.110.58.3 (H=15)10.5 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay4.3470.30006.510.88.7 (H=16)10.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Bloom6.0470.30006.512.59.5 (H=19)12.5 (H=41)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ NYJ2952.01800001.
2PROJ-Dodds3.3410.30005.99.27.6 (H=14)9.2 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.2390.30005.78.97.3 (H=13)8.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0250.10003.15.14.1 (H=4)5.1 (H=9)

Giants vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+10.0)28 (+11.0)28 (+10.5)28 (+10.7)
1Blake Jarwin27333919.912.911.412.9

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NYJ3821.0100.
2PROJ-Dodds1.7180.234.73.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.3240. (H=6)5.9 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom1.0900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)

Tommy Sweeney (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ NYJ2322.03503.
2PROJ-Dodds1.2150. (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay1.5160. (H=3)3.7 (H=7)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)

Giants vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-1.8)13T (-1.8)11T (-2.5) (+0.0)
1Brett Maher0055555.05.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ NYJ1122556.06.0

Giants vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-1.1)14T (-1.1)15T (-0.8)15T (-0.8)
1Dallas Cowboys1747010200556.06.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

1@ NYJ16.00223401108810.010.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.103622.70.90.800. (H=20)9.2 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.753472.20.90.800. (H=21)9.6 (H=29)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-9.8)7 (-9.8)10 (-6.5)10 (-7.9)
1Sam Darnold7228411751010012.812.813.013.0

Eli Manning (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4900)

1@ DAL6430443061016019.919.914.818.8
2PROJ-Dodds20352241.31130.116.316.316.3 (H=39)16.3 (H=51)
2PROJ-Tremblay22342431.30.9360.117.617.617.6 (H=44)17.6 (H=58)
2PROJ-Bloom23362121.31.200014.614.614.6 (H=32)14.6 (H=42)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-3.1)13T (-2.6)16T (-0.9)15 (-1.2)
1LeVeon Bell72176009632115.
1Ty Montgomery524000000.

Saquon Barkley (FanDuel: $9200, DraftKings: $9200)

1@ DAL5511120064.019013.917.915.920.9
2PROJ-Dodds19820.65.3390.216.922.219.6 (H=37)22.2 (H=46)
2PROJ-Tremblay18830.65.4400.217.122.519.8 (H=38)22.5 (H=47)
2PROJ-Bloom18700.55.0370.214.919.917.4 (H=30)19.9 (H=38)

Wayne Gallman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ DAL14217133.024010.113.111.613.1
2PROJ-Dodds3120.11.0702.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
2PROJ-Tremblay2100.10.7502.12.82.5 (H=2)2.8 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom2601.0701.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-12.8)12 (-7.2)8 (-11.8)11 (-9.9)
1Jamison Crowder65171499014010.324.317.324.3
1Robby Anderson69732300002.

Cody Latimer (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ DAL6183.07400007.410.48.910.4
2PROJ-Dodds2.8490.30006.79.58.1 (H=13)9.5 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.3460.30006.49.78.1 (H=13)9.7 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0430.20005.59.57.5 (H=11)9.5 (H=26)

Bennie Fowler (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ DAL5055.0400000496.59.0
2PROJ-Dodds2.6390.20005.17.76.4 (H=10)7.7 (H=20)
2PROJ-Tremblay2.0270.10003.35.34.3 (H=5)5.3 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom4.0370.20004.98.96.9 (H=11)8.9 (H=26)

Sterling Shepard (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ DAL6876.04200004.
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay3.4450.20005.79.17.4 (H=10)9.1 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Russell Shepard (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ DAL900.000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-6.4)5T (-8.4)5 (-7.4)5T (-8.7)
1Ryan Griffin68431001.

Evan Engram (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ DAL531411.0116117.628.623.131.6
2PROJ-Dodds6.0730.49.715.712.7 (H=25)15.7 (H=45)
2PROJ-Tremblay6.1710.49.515.612.6 (H=25)15.6 (H=44)
2PROJ-Bloom7.0730.610.917.914.4 (H=31)17.9 (H=56)

Rhett Ellison (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ DAL2221.0800.
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-6.8)1T (-6.8)1T (-7.5) (+0.0)
1Chandler Catanzaro0000000.00.0

Aldrick Rosas (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ DAL1122555.05.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+8.9)30 (+8.9)30 (+11.2)30 (+11.2)
1New York Jets1737012201151518.018.0

New York Giants (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ DAL35.004940000000-4.0-4.0
2PROJ-Dodds24.003632.31.20.700. (H=24)8.8 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay22.753512.21.10.700. (H=24)8.7 (H=33)