Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 19, Ravens 29

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense24.8 (+2.1) (9)143 (+29) (3)215 (-19) (24)
Ravens Defense17.6 (-5.1) (3)93 (-20) (4)208 (-26) (6)

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense33.2 (+10.4) (1)206 (+93) (1)201 (-33) (27)
Titans Defense20.2 (-2.5) (12)104 (-9) (11)252 (+17) (24)

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

The Titans are reveling in the surprising play of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but it’s no secret they’re deeply devoted to the ground game. A glance at Derrick Henry’s last 20 games - 5.4 yards per carry, 115 a game - makes clear just why. He’s averaged 154 over just his past 7 games, finding the end zone 11 times along the way. Henry combines strength and power with an explosive build-up speed that makes for the toughest tackle in football at the moment. He’s capable of not only controlling games with his steady running, but also bouncing just about any run into a big, tide-turning gain. Henry is a phenomenal talent, but some credit also goes to his front line, which has improved in-season into one of the game’s best run-blocking groups. By the close of the year, Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti had stamped it with a rare A+ grade. Overall, the Titans have to be thrilled that the Ravens’ biggest clear weakness matches up so well with what they do best. It appears only a truly negative game script could keep Henry from another eruption.

Overall, the Ravens closed out 2019 in dominant, but not unbeatable, fashion. And if there’s a road map to toppling them, it likely includes the ground game, where they’re still struggling to patch the holes of a unit in transition. The team has yet to find adequate replacements for names like C.J. Mosley and Eric Weddle, leading to more gaps than usual on the second level. Down the stretch, they were beaten by nearly all comers, including the likes of Steelers reserve Benny Snell (91 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts) and the struggling Le’Veon Bell (21 for 87). The Ravens are generally strong up front, where down linemen Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams remain the underrated saviors of this unit. But the linebacker play has been inconsistent, and the secondary is built far more to defend the downfield pass than to help in the box. All of this is music to the ears of the Titans, who would pound the ball relentlessly with Derrick Henry in a perfect world. If the Tennessee line is up to the task, the Ravens will be hard-pressed to keep Henry from controlling this game with his legs.

Titans Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Ryan Tannehill’s newfound mystique has now carried him through Foxboro and into the Divisional Round. Of course, Tannehill is mostly minimized when things are going well for Derrick Henry and the run-dominant Titans. He dropped back just 16 times on Wild Card Weekend, and he threw deep (15+ yards) just 4 times (he didn’t complete any of them). But it has to be noted just how consistently efficient he’s been with his workload. He’s produced a historically-good 9.3 yards per attempt, with 23 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. Most importantly, he puts world-class rookie A.J. Brown in much better position to succeed than Marcus Mariota did. Brown, who will likely finish too low in Rookie of the Year voting, was shut down last week by Stephon Gilmore, but posted 114+ yards in 4 of his 5 previous full games. Corey Davis and tight end Jonnu Smith both show playmaking potential, but both have drawn wildly inconsistent usage in this run-first offense. Beyond maybe an explosive deep-ball catch or two from Brown, it’s hard to get too excited about this unit, as the Titans will seek to pound the ball relentlessly on the ground. But the risk-averse among us will note the big-play upside here, which could win a number of fantasy contests if a high-scoring game were to break out unexpectedly.

The Baltimore pass defense has undergone a massive turnaround since adding cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith to the lineup at midseason. Dating back to Week 10, they’ve allowed an astoundingly-low 5.5 yards per attempt and 171 a game. No opposing passer has topped 240 yards since Russell Wilson and Tom Brady did just before that run started - and they needed 41 and 46 attempts to do it. Peters and Marlon Humphrey have been All-Pro talents, with Peters smothering outside receivers and Humphrey making splash plays in the slot. Behind them, new safeties Earl Thomas and Chuck Clark have excelled in coverage, proving noticeable upgrades on Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson. On paper, it’s a truly daunting matchup for the Titans pass game, and Ryan Tannehill will have to get creative to work the ball downfield. But the Ravens will still need to generate some degree of pressure, which has been the (mild) weakness of this unit. With just one dependable pass-rusher (Matthew Judon), they push the pocket well but only hit home for 37 sacks, good for 21st in the league.

Ravens Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Simply put, no NFL offense is as dedicated to the run as the Ravens, nor anywhere near as dominant. On the season, Baltimore ran the ball 98 times more - and produced nearly a yard more per rush - than anyone else in football. Their 56% run percentage was ripped straight out of the 1930s, yet opposing defenses simply haven’t put together an answer to the onslaught they know is coming. The Ravens boast a trio of 700-yard rushers, led by quarterback and soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson’s 1,206 (80 per game). Jackson topped 80 yards in 7 of his 15 appearances, and his dynamic running is more projectable than any quarterback in history. There’s still concern over Mark Ingram’s availability for Saturday’s game, as he may have experienced a calf setback during practice this week. But Gus Edwards doesn’t look like a downgrade; he’s one of football’s most powerful and decisive runners and always maximizes his opportunity. He posted 5.3 yards per carry in his sophomore season and rolled over the Steelers for 130 yards in his Week 17 spot start. And everyone benefits from a top-tier line that’s built to run-block, graded with an A by Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti. It’s hard to recall a ground attack more predictably dominant in recent history, and this entire trio makes sense in one fantasy format or another.

The Titans trot out a better-than-average run defense, which closed the regular season 12th in raw yardage allowed (105 per game) and seventh per rush (4.0). The strength of this unit lies up front, where Jurrell Casey, DaQuan Jones, and Jeffrey Simmons make for a solid space-eating trio. But the linebacker play has been inconsistent, leaving the edges and off-tackle zones vulnerable too often. And on Saturday, they’ll be contending with a steady flow of Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram runs right down those alleys. Rashaan Evans will need to elevate his play next to the steady Jayon Brown to have a chance of slowing these bulldozing Ravens. Evans has graded terribly against the run throughout the year, routinely missing assignments and leaving gaps up the field. The Ravens bring an attack with power, quickness, and deception, which may prove too much for this shaky unit on the second level.

Ravens Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Lamar Jackson is the league’s runaway MVP on the heels of a truly historic season. And while he isn’t throwing with much volume (just 23 attempts a game since Week 7), he’s doing more than enough through the air to complement his rushing numbers. Coordinator Greg Roman doesn’t ask Jackson to do much through the air, but gives him plenty of opportunity to make hay off of play action and the option game. Jackson’s creativity and instinct allow him to find Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, and his handful of role players with open field in front of them. Jackson has posted an unsustainable 9.0% touchdown rate, but that’s not quite so outlandish when considering just how disarming this offense can be. Unfortunately, none of Jackson’s receivers beyond Andrews (50+ yards and a touchdown in 5 of his last 7 games) are projectable enough to rely upon for fantasy purposes. But those playing Jackson only need a modest amount of air production for success, and everything beyond that makes for a fantastic bonus.

The Titans pass defense was the toast of Tennessee last weekend against Tom Brady, but sits below-average across the board by the numbers. They do boast a pair of unfortunate Pro Bowl snubs in slot cornerback Logan Ryan and safety Kevin Byard, who do great work up the seams and over the middle. But they’ve struggled badly on the outside, where cornerback Adoree Jackson has been missed - he’ll likely return this week - and where Trumaine Brock and Tye Smith have been exploited frequently in his place. Even with Jackson on the field, though, this group was shredded down the stretch by D.J. Moore (7 catches for 101 yards), Tyreek Hill (11 for 157 and a touchdown), and Zach Pascal (7 for 109). Saddled with a shaky linebacking crew, they’ve also been beaten often by running backs and tight ends underneath. Overall, this isn’t a particularly bad unit, but they’ll need to scheme just right to cut off the playmaking Ravens. Perhaps Ryan and Byard will team up to contain dynamic tight end Mark Andrews, keeping the burden off the linebackers. But without much pass rush to speak of (25th in pressure rate), they’ll need to hit home with some creative blitzing to keep Lamar Jackson from making early plays and building momentum.

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.1)2 (-5.2)2 (-4.9)2 (-5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.2)2 (-6.3)1 (-5.9)2 (-6.2)
15Sam Darnold59183221821111019.019.016.817.8
16Baker Mayfield6020331922124017.
17Devlin Hodges5092595001-

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $5400)

16vs NO6217272723018026.426.423.723.7
17@ HOU61132019820520019.919.917.917.9
18@ NE61815721141107.
19PROJ-Dodds19312291.20.84150. (H=39)18.2 (H=56)
19PROJ-Tremblay20312411.10.94170.218.518.518.5 (H=40)18.5 (H=58)
19PROJ-Bloom16261911.513110.317.517.517.5 (H=36)17.5 (H=52)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.4)4 (-4.9)5 (-4.0)4 (-5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.3)1 (-10.3)1 (-9.1)1 (-11.0)
15LeVeon Bell512187022108.810.89.810.8
15Ty Montgomery1225011501.
16Nick Chubb391545010004.
16Kareem Hunt34300443303.
17Benny Snell2518911000015.
17Jaylen Samuels20000211601.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $9600, DraftKings: $8200)

16vs NO000000.000000.00.0
17@ HOU4732211300.00039.
18@ NE5034182111.022026.427.426.930.4
19PROJ-Dodds18880.61.412013.61514.3 (H=20)15.0 (H=26)
19PROJ-Tremblay18810.51.512012.313.813.0 (H=17)13.8 (H=22)
19PROJ-Bloom219011.090.116.517.517.0 (H=28)17.5 (H=34)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

16vs NO431568021.01908.
17@ HOU1117000.0000.
18@ NE1128011.0801.
19PROJ-Dodds4120.11.2802.63.83.2 (H=3)3.8 (H=5)
19PROJ-Tremblay4150.11.39034.33.7 (H=4)4.3 (H=6)
19PROJ-Bloom2601.040121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=1)

Khari Blasingame (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

16vs NO400010.000000.00.0
17@ HOU1300011.0700.
18@ NE1200000.000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds0000.7500.51.20.8 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
19PROJ-Tremblay0000.7500.51.20.8 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.5)16 (-0.6)14 (-1.1)15 (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.5)14 (-2.2)16 (-1.2)13 (-2.5)
15Jamison Crowder5011690200021.
15Robby Anderson59646600006.610.610.612.6
16Odell Beckham546444100010.414.412.414.4
16Jarvis Landry50877400007.414.410.914.4
17Diontae Johnson39745400005.
17JuJu Smith-Schuster3762600000.

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

16vs NO6221.0340149114.315.314.815.3
17@ HOU4984.0124100018.422.420.425.4
18@ NE6011.0400000.
19PROJ-Dodds4.4680.30008.61310.8 (H=16)13.0 (H=28)
19PROJ-Tremblay4.5700.3020913.511.3 (H=18)13.5 (H=30)
19PROJ-Bloom3.0500.4180.18.811.810.3 (H=15)11.8 (H=23)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

16vs NO4443.0400000475.57.0
17@ HOU4254.04400004.
18@ NE5020.000000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds2.9380.10004.47.35.9 (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.8380.200057.86.4 (H=9)7.8 (H=18)
19PROJ-Bloom3.0350.30005.38.36.8 (H=11)8.3 (H=21)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

16vs NO3965.069200018.923.921.423.9
17@ HOU2721.01300001.
18@ NE1831.0600000.
19PROJ-Dodds2.9310.20004.37.25.8 (H=8)7.2 (H=17)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.5330.20004.575.8 (H=8)7.0 (H=16)
19PROJ-Bloom3.0250.20003.76.75.2 (H=7)6.7 (H=15)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-2.8)1 (-4.3)1 (-3.5)1 (-4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.9)2 (-6.8)3 (-5.3)3 (-7.0)
15Daniel Brown2921400.
16Demetrius Harris3631116.
17Vance McDonald44221901.

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3400)

16vs NO5143.063112.315.313.815.3
17@ HOU5000.0000.
18@ NE5421.0900.
19PROJ-Dodds3.3360. (H=9)8.1 (H=22)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.9330. (H=8)7.4 (H=18)
19PROJ-Bloom4.0550.47.911.99.9 (H=20)11.9 (H=42)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

16vs NO1310.000000.00.0
17@ HOU1821.0500.
18@ NE1432.02318.310.39.310.3
19PROJ-Dodds1.5190.12.543.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=8)
19PROJ-Tremblay1.8210. (H=4)4.5 (H=10)
19PROJ-Bloom1.0130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.4)12 (-0.4)9T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.3)1 (-4.3)1 (-4.8) (+0.0)
15Sam Ficken0112111.01.0
16Austin Seibert1101334.04.0
17Chris Boswell1111444.04.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

16vs NO0044444.04.0
17@ HOU0055555.05.0
18@ NE0022222.02.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.4)10T (-2.4)12T (-3.9)12T (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)10 (-2.2)12 (-2.0)12 (-2.0)
15New York Jets4243010000115.05.0
16Cleveland Browns3148100100221.01.0
17Pittsburgh Steelers2830431110998.08.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2400)

16vs NO38.003773000033-1.0-1.0
17@ HOU14.0030141000667.07.0
18@ NE13.0030701101101014.014.0
19PROJ-Dodds28.304061.90.80.500. (H=10)5.7 (H=16)
19PROJ-Tremblay28.7540820.80.500. (H=10)5.6 (H=16)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.1)18 (-0.1)18 (-0.2)16 (-0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.4)21 (+0.9)21 (+0.9)19 (+0.2)
15Deshaun Watson63192724322732021.421.418.918.9
16Drew Brees682738279303-3025.725.722.922.9
17AJ McCarron65213622501539120.220.217.917.9
18Tom Brady612037209010009.

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $9400, DraftKings: $8400)

16@ CLE7320312383017103034.234.229.833.8
17vs PIT000000000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds19292301.70.710640.5272727.0 (H=64)27.0 (H=71)
19PROJ-Tremblay19302311.80.87520.324.924.924.9 (H=55)24.9 (H=62)
19PROJ-Bloom16221941.90.511740.527.227.227.2 (H=64)27.2 (H=72)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.5)21 (+1.7)20 (+1.0)21 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.3)20 (+1.8)19 (+0.7)19 (+1.6)
15Carlos Hyde42261041000016.416.416.419.4
15Duke Johnson21240321902.
16Alvin Kamara44118027630023.
16Latavius Murray257140321102.
17Duke Johnson2141216545011.716.714.216.7
17Taiwan Jones14940011904.
18James White291140556207.612.68.111.6
18Sony Michel231461022907.

Mark Ingram (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6700)

16@ CLE30855022.036115.
17vs PIT000000.000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds14690.61.9180.213.515.414.5 (H=27)15.4 (H=34)
19PROJ-Tremblay15680.61.9160. (H=26)15.1 (H=32)
19PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4900)

16@ CLE301266011.0707.
17vs PIT4821130011.02013.214.211.716.2
19PROJ-Dodds8400.30.0005.85.85.8 (H=7)5.8 (H=8)
19PROJ-Tremblay9390.20.2205.35.55.4 (H=6)5.5 (H=7)
19PROJ-Bloom14730.60.00010.910.910.9 (H=23)10.9 (H=25)

Justice Hill (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3900)

16@ CLE13319143.032011.114.112.614.1
17vs PIT221039121.010010.911.911.411.9
19PROJ-Dodds5200.10.9703.34.23.8 (H=4)4.2 (H=6)
19PROJ-Tremblay4180.10.7502.93.63.3 (H=3)3.6 (H=4)
19PROJ-Bloom9440.22.0170. (H=18)9.9 (H=27)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)15 (-0.9)16 (-0.9)17 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.4)17 (-0.6)19 (-0.5)19 (-0.1)
15Kenny Stills393335200015.518.517.018.5
15DeAndre Hopkins6386119000011.917.914.920.9
16Michael Thomas611712136100019.631.625.634.6
16TreQuan Smith38211300001.
17DeAndre Carter65766500006.512.59.512.5
17Steven Mitchell65523700003.
18Julian Edelman5453300212110.213.211.713.2
18NKeal Harry41722101702.

Marquise Brown (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4400)

16@ CLE4321.0600000.
17vs PIT3922.01500001.
19PROJ-Dodds3.1440.30006.29.37.8 (H=13)9.3 (H=21)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.9390.30005.78.67.2 (H=11)8.6 (H=18)
19PROJ-Bloom3.0520.50008.211.29.7 (H=19)11.2 (H=29)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

16@ CLE3532.02300002.
17vs PIT2310.000000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds2.0250.20003.75.74.7 (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=7)6.4 (H=14)
19PROJ-Bloom2.0230.20003.55.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=10)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3800)

16@ CLE3010.000000000.00.0
17vs PIT5553.02201002.
19PROJ-Dodds2.0220.20003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=9)
19PROJ-Tremblay1.9240.20003.65.54.6 (H=6)5.5 (H=10)
19PROJ-Bloom2.0140.30003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=9)

Miles Boykin (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

16@ CLE2711.0800000.
17vs PIT3720.000000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds0.8120.10001.82.62.2 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
19PROJ-Tremblay0.8110.10001.72.52.1 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
19PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.3)25 (+1.4)24 (+1.2)25 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)16 (-1.0)17 (-0.4)15 (-1.2)
15Jordan Akins3822700.
16Jared Cook364384220.423.421.923.4
17Jordan Akins53755405.410.47.910.4
18Ben Watson27433803.

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5600)

16@ CLE3996.093221.327.324.327.3
17vs PIT000.000000.00.0
19PROJ-Dodds4.5610.59.113.611.4 (H=19)13.6 (H=32)
19PROJ-Tremblay4.5570.58.713.211.0 (H=18)13.2 (H=31)
19PROJ-Bloom4.0610. (H=19)13.1 (H=30)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

16@ CLE4031.0900.
17vs PIT3322.03503.
19PROJ-Dodds2.0230. (H=5)5.5 (H=11)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.1230. (H=5)5.6 (H=11)
19PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=10)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

16@ CLE4943.02402.
17vs PIT5321.0600.
19PROJ-Dodds2.1210. (H=5)5.4 (H=11)
19PROJ-Tremblay2.4250. (H=6)6.1 (H=14)
19PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-1.4)10T (-1.4)8T (-1.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.2)10 (-1.2)8 (-1.8) (+0.0)
15Kaimi Fairbairn1133666.06.0
16Wil Lutz1155889.09.0
17Kaimi Fairbairn0022222.02.0
18Nick Folk2211777.07.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

16@ CLE1144777.07.0
17vs PIT4422141417.017.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.0)10 (-1.0)7 (-1.4)7 (-1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.7)7 (-2.7)4 (-3.7)4 (-3.7)
15Houston Texans2143221000446.06.0
16New Orleans Saints2839750100776.06.0
17Houston Texans354670000000-4.0-4.0
18New England Patriots2027211000334.04.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3600)

16@ CLE15.0024101000223.03.0
17vs PIT10.0016820201181818.018.0
19PROJ-Dodds18.803482.60.90.800.510.510.510.5 (H=24)10.5 (H=32)
19PROJ-Tremblay19.2535520.90.800. (H=22)9.9 (H=29)