Matchup Analysis: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Raiders 19, Broncos 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense19.9 (-2.9) (24)120 (+7) (13)236 (+1) (13)
Broncos Defense20.1 (-2.7) (10)112 (+0) (18)215 (-20) (6)

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense17.7 (-5.0) (27)106 (-6) (18)196 (-38) (29)
Raiders Defense26.9 (+4.1) (27)100 (-12) (9)262 (+26) (25)

Raiders Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Rookie of the Year frontrunner Josh Jacobs sat out Week 16, and with a leg infection that required surgery on Wednesday, it will be difficult for him to suit up against the Broncos. The Raiders remain technically alive in the playoff race, but their slim probability shouldn’t be enough to risk Jacobs’ banged-up shoulder. Most likely, DeAndre Washington will close things out as the lead runner, and he’s a fantasy consideration if only on volume. In 2 games relieving Jacobs, Washington has averaged just 3.7 yards per rush, but taken on 37 of 49 team attempts. There’s not much ceiling there, but an acceptable fantasy floor in a pinch. Jalen Richard mixes into the lineup as well, but he’s confined mostly to passing downs. Any and all Raiders runners would benefit from guard Richie Incognito’s return, but he also looks unlikely for Sunday, and he’s not the only up-front starter the team would be missing.

The Denver run defense has spiked up and down throughout the season, mixing in weak performances with dominant ones. Of late, though, this group is on a bit of a downturn. Over the past 8 weeks, they’ve allowed 6 different runners to top 65 yards, averaging 4.4 per rush in the process. The strength of this unit typically lies up front, but is unrecognizable with Derek Wolfe, Adam Gotsis, Dre’mont Jones, and DeMarcus Walker all on the shelf. The linebacking crew is average at best, with Todd Davis leading the way but struggling to hold up to blocking. As a result, recent opponents have found success when clearing the patchwork line and reaching the second level. The Raiders’ Week 17 backfield is up in the air, but projects to solid efficiency however it shakes out.

Raiders Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

With Derek Carr at the helm, the Raiders passing attack remains a safe but relatively low-impact one. Carr has yet to reach the 300-yard mark this season despite sitting second league-wide in completion rate (71%). There’s just not much volume at play here, and it doesn’t help that Carr still isn’t a fan of pushing the ball downfield. He’s thrown deep (15+ yards) on just 15% of his attempts, with most of his attention focused on his backs, tight ends, and slot men. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow lead the way, but they’ve produced just 12.1 yards per catch. Explosive deep threat Tyrell Williams (15.5, with 6 touchdowns) has seen his role scaled back of late; he’s topped 50 yards just twice since Week 9. There’s usually a strong volume floor for Waller and Renfrow, but their upside is always capped as the Raiders look to shorten games and keep things underneath.

The Denver pass defense has been up-and-down for much of 2019, but remains a relatively stingy matchup from an efficiency standpoint. Apart from a Week 15 shredding by Patrick Mahomes, they’ve allowed just 6.8 yards per attempt to opposing passers, and only 4 teams have given up fewer touchdowns through the air. Altogether, only Mahomes and two others have topped 275 yards in this matchup. That doesn’t bode well for the Raiders’ low-impact attack, which has yet to reach 300 in a game this year. Chris Harris is still strong enough in the slot to limit their top targets, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and there’s not much of a downfield component in play. Still, there are vulnerabilities to be found here, especially with free safety Kareem Jackson suspended. Carr may lack big upside, but there’s a bit to be found if Tyrell Williams is able to work his way open downfield once or twice.

Broncos Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Last week, Phillip Lindsay broke up an extended cold streak by gashing the Lions for 109 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts. He now sits just 42 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season, and he should see plenty of opportunity to hit the mark Sunday. Dating back to the Week 10 bye, he’s taken on 69% of team rushes, good for an average of 15 a game. Royce Freeman lurks as a change-of-pace runner, but the role hasn’t provided him nearly enough volume to make fantasy noise. Even in the Broncos’ run-heavy attack, he hasn’t taken on double-digit carries since Week 8, averaging just 23 yards a game over that span. Freeman scored from a yard out last week, but has ceded much of his goal-line work to Lindsay of late, sapping all of his week-to-week fantasy value.

The Oakland defense remains very much a work in progress, but it’s at least shown major improvement against the run. Despite an ever-shuffling linebacking crew, they sit ninth league-wide in raw yardage allowed (100 per game) and sixth on a per-carry basis (4.0). Last Sunday brought their second dominant performance in a row, holding Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to just 26 combined yards. And the week before, they allowed Leonard Fournette just 42 on his 15 rushes. The Raiders have assembled a fine interior up front, where tackles Jonathan Hankins and P.J. Hall are custom-fit to stifle inside running lanes. There’s not much talent behind them, but Tahir Whitehead is a smart, seasoned playmaker on his own. This still isn’t some dominant, matchup-busting unit that scares away fantasy players, but has proven its mettle as a solid group. Phillip Lindsay will likely find tougher sledding here than in last week’s romp over the Lions.

Broncos Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Rookie Drew Lock has impressed in small, hard-to-see bursts over his four starts. But he continues to play it extremely close to the vest; as a result, he’s posted only a single fantasy-relevant game. Apart from his big Week 14 showing, he’s produced an anemic 5.3 yards per attempt, with just 3 touchdowns. Ominously, he’s struggled to get anything going in back-to-back games against subpar pass defenses. At the moment, the only projectable upside in this unit belongs to top wideout Courtland Sutton, who’s proven able to make huge plays downfield regardless of his quarterback. Sutton has put up 15.6 yards a catch and 71 a game, and he’s commanded a robust 25% of Lock’s targets. He was held mostly in check last week by the Lions’ Darius Slay, but remains top dog in this attack. Rookie tight end Noah Fant continues to flash, but has been held under 10 yards in 2 of Lock’s 4 games. Behind them, DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick offer bodies but not much upside. Overall, aside from Sutton, fantasy players in Week 17 championship matchups are best served to avoid this unit.

The Oakland pass defense remains perpetually under construction - and one of fantasy’s most attractive matchups. They sit dead-last league-wide in net yardage allowed per attempt, with 7 of their 15 opponents topping 275 yards on relatively low volume. Even more alarming, they’ve given up 32 touchdowns, third-most in football. Much of the blame lies on the ever-changing secondary, which has struggled all season in downfield coverage. Cornerbacks Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen have been routinely victimized for big plays, while safety Lamarcus Joyner remains a huge liability in the slot. As a result, they’ve allowed a whopping 30 different receivers and tight ends to record 10+ PPR points. At least the long-dormant pass rush is coming around, sitting middle-of-the-pack in hurry rate on the heels of rookie Maxx Crosby’s breakout (8.5 sacks). But it hasn’t been nearly enough to offset the battered secondary, and Denver’s Courtland Sutton matches the profile of playmakers that have worked it over.

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.0)6 (-3.1)7 (-2.6)7 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.1)23 (+1.8)22 (+1.6)
13Philip Rivers6620292652100020.320.317.617.6
14Deshaun Watson80285029212644233.
15Patrick Mahomes68273434021311025.125.123.726.7
16David Blough501224117100009.

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5500)

14vs TEN63253426320217022.922.920.220.2
15vs JAX75223626710112018.618.615.915.9
16@ LAC6326302911013124.924.921.921.9
17PROJ-Dodds21322231.20.7250.116.416.416.4 (H=34)16.4 (H=46)
17PROJ-Tremblay21322311.20.8250.116.716.716.7 (H=35)16.7 (H=47)
17PROJ-Bloom19301941.30.6280.115.715.715.7 (H=32)15.7 (H=42)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)8 (-2.3)9 (-2.4)8 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-5.4)6 (-6.3)6 (-6.2)5 (-7.1)
13Austin Ekeler3591605451112.716.714.716.7
13Melvin Gordon43209903211011.
14Carlos Hyde411473032507.
14Duke Johnson42150864004.510.57.510.5
15Darwin Thompson24838011103.
15Spencer Ware27726022903.
16Kerryon Johnson161042011104.
16Bo Scarbrough14834000003.

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5200)

14vs TEN401453176.043015.621.618.621.6
15vs JAX11616032.0602.
16@ LAC402385132.021016.618.617.618.6
17PROJ-Dodds15540.32.6180911.610.3 (H=18)11.6 (H=26)
17PROJ-Tremblay11400.32.51907.710.29.0 (H=14)10.2 (H=21)
17PROJ-Bloom16590.42.0140.110.312.311.3 (H=21)12.3 (H=29)

Josh Jacobs (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6300)

14vs TEN000000.000000.00.0
15vs JAX432489032.020010.912.911.912.9
16@ LAC000000.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds9400.20.7505.76.46.1 (H=6)6.4 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay10420.20.5305.76.26.0 (H=5)6.2 (H=7)
17PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs TEN24728032.01804.
15vs JAX22111032.02503.
16@ LAC24511044.01802.
17PROJ-Dodds4190.12.41804.36.75.5 (H=6)6.7 (H=14)
17PROJ-Tremblay3130.11.91403.35.24.3 (H=4)5.2 (H=9)
17PROJ-Bloom5210.13.0170.1586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=19)

Alec Ingold (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs TEN81-1000.000-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
15vs JAX1700033.02202.
16@ LAC2400000.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0000.6400.410.7 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0200.8600.81.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.7)6T (-4.2)7 (-3.4)6 (-4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.6)22 (+1.2)21 (+1.4)23 (+1.9)
13Keenan Allen636668100012.818.815.818.8
13Mike Williams5875117000011.716.714.219.7
14DeAndre Hopkins801371201112019.226.222.729.2
14Keke Coutee57856800006.811.87.310.8
15Tyreek Hill577567211018.823.821.323.8
15Sammy Watkins52434900004.
16Kenny Golladay4812666100012.618.615.618.6
16Danny Amendola41322100002.

Hunter Renfrow (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

14vs TEN000.000000000.00.0
15vs JAX000.000000000.00.0
16@ LAC2997.0107100016.723.720.226.7
17PROJ-Dodds3.8440.30006.2108.2 (H=12)10.1 (H=24)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.7460.30006.410.18.3 (H=13)10.2 (H=24)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0560.400081310.6 (H=19)13.1 (H=38)

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4600)

14vs TEN5243.03500003.
15vs JAX7232.045100010.512.511.512.5
16@ LAC5544.08200008.
17PROJ-Dodds3.0430.30006.19.17.6 (H=11)9.1 (H=19)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.7390.20005.17.86.5 (H=8)7.8 (H=15)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0470.30006.59.58.0 (H=12)9.5 (H=21)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs TEN5331.0500000.
15vs JAX5021.0500000.
16@ LAC3333.01400001.
17PROJ-Dodds1.8160.10002.243.1 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.10002.443.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0120.10001.83.82.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=6)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.6)18 (+0.2)14 (-0.2)17 (+0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.5)12 (-0.5)11 (-0.9)13T (+0.0)
13Hunter Henry50321001.
14Jordan Akins51944904.
15Travis Kelce621311142014.225.219.728.2
16Logan Thomas31321701.

Darren Waller (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5400)

14vs TEN6166.07307.313.38.312.3
15vs JAX66108.0122012.
16@ LAC5144.03703.
17PROJ-Dodds5.5630.38.113.610.9 (H=20)13.6 (H=34)
17PROJ-Tremblay5.8690.38.714.511.6 (H=22)14.5 (H=38)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0480.36.610.68.6 (H=13)10.6 (H=22)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs TEN800.000000.00.0
15vs JAX2321.0500.
16@ LAC1822.01201.
17PROJ-Dodds1.1110. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=7)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.8)18T (+0.8)27T (+1.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.3) (+0.0)
13Mike Badgley2322889.09.0
14Kaimi Fairbairn1133668.08.0
15Harrison Butker33009910.010.0
16Matt Prater1122555.05.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs TEN0033333.03.0
15vs JAX3411101010.010.0
16@ LAC1133667.07.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.2)8 (-1.2)17T (+0.5)17T (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-3.7)2T (-3.7)13T (-1.3)13T (-1.3)
13Los Angeles Chargers2321801000222.02.0
14Houston Texans3839111000332.02.0
15Kansas City Chiefs3251210004411.011.0
16Detroit Lions2734800001006.06.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs TEN42.005520100022-2.0-2.0
15vs JAX20.0026220000223.03.0
16@ LAC17.0028410000112.02.0
17PROJ-Dodds24.003492.110.600.4888.0 (H=17)8.0 (H=29)
17PROJ-Tremblay22.253462.110.600. (H=18)8.4 (H=31)

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.9)28 (+3.8)29 (+3.5)28 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.1)20 (+1.1)21 (+1.1)20 (+1.0)
13Patrick Mahomes66152917510325121.321.319.519.5
14Ryan Tannehill62212739131419032.532.528.531.5
15Gardner Minshew57172920120527020.820.818.718.7
16Philip Rivers6027392790000014.

Drew Lock (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5800)

14@ HOU592227309313150282824.927.9
15@ KC591840208012309.
16vs DET71253319210410014.614.612.712.7
17PROJ-Dodds20332291.513110. (H=42)18.2 (H=52)
17PROJ-Tremblay20332411.41280.1181818.0 (H=42)18.0 (H=51)
17PROJ-Bloom19301981.713110.117.417.417.4 (H=39)17.4 (H=48)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.4)23 (+1.9)22 (+1.9)22 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.2)25 (+4.1)25 (+3.9)25 (+4.3)
13Darwin Thompson2411441000010.410.410.410.4
13LeSean McCoy245101332009.012.010.512.0
14Derrick Henry37181032116022.923.923.426.9
14Khari Blasingame13000224704.
15Leonard Fournette5515420753107.312.39.812.3
15Ryquell Armstead211000000.
16Melvin Gordon3791527632016.722.719.722.7
16Austin Ekeler334110655806.911.99.411.9

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6100)

14@ HOU311651122.04011.513.512.513.5
15@ KC23732020.0003.
16vs DET4119109132.09017.819.818.822.8
17PROJ-Dodds15680.52.5160.11214.513.3 (H=26)14.5 (H=33)
17PROJ-Tremblay16680.52.3170.112.114.413.3 (H=26)14.4 (H=33)
17PROJ-Bloom17710. (H=24)13.5 (H=29)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4300)

14@ HOU27824022.0819.
15@ KC32512044.01402.
16vs DET28928122.0909.711.710.711.7
17PROJ-Dodds8270.22.8180. (H=12)9.1 (H=21)
17PROJ-Tremblay7260.22.4180. (H=11)8.6 (H=19)
17PROJ-Bloom9310.32.0110. (H=12)8.6 (H=19)

Devontae Booker (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ HOU200022.02402.
15@ KC515000.0000.
16vs DET400021.0200.
17PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay1201.1901.12.21.6 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
17PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.5)21 (+1.3)21 (+1.9)21 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.1)10 (-3.5)11 (-2.3)10 (-3.9)
13Tyreek Hill54855501-405.110.17.610.1
13Mecole Hardman2600001900.
14A.J. Brown52751532113028.633.631.136.6
14Corey Davis47423400003.
15Chris Conley508449200016.920.918.920.9
15Keelan Cole43637600007.610.69.110.6
16Keenan Allen531057101-506.611.69.111.6
16Mike Williams53435100005.

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6400)

14@ HOU5775.03400003.
15@ KC54104.07900007.911.99.911.9
16vs DET68105.04100004.
17PROJ-Dodds4.8740.500010.415.212.8 (H=23)15.2 (H=34)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.9750.402010.11512.6 (H=22)15.0 (H=34)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=22)15.1 (H=34)

Tim Patrick (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4000)

14@ HOU3732.0500000576.07.0
15@ KC4073.02600002.
16vs DET4765.04800004.
17PROJ-Dodds2.5360.20004.87.36.1 (H=8)7.3 (H=15)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.8400.20005.286.6 (H=10)8.0 (H=18)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0400.30005.88.87.3 (H=12)8.8 (H=21)

DaeSean Hamilton (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3800)

14@ HOU4442.03600003.
15@ KC4992.01300001.
16vs DET4166.065100012.518.515.518.5
17PROJ-Dodds2.2240.20003.65.84.7 (H=5)5.8 (H=11)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2270.20003.96.15.0 (H=5)6.1 (H=12)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0280.30004.67.66.1 (H=8)7.6 (H=17)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+1.7)25 (+1.5)13T (+1.6)24 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.0)11 (-0.5)13 (-0.2)11 (-0.7)
13Travis Kelce61959009.014.011.514.0
14Jonnu Smith49432918.911.910.411.9
15Seth DeValve29222302.
16Hunter Henry53754504.

Noah Fant (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3600)

14@ HOU2944.0113117.321.319.324.3
15@ KC2732.05605.
16vs DET4122.0100132.03.0
17PROJ-Dodds2.6320.24.475.7 (H=7)7.0 (H=16)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2290. (H=6)6.3 (H=13)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0240. (H=6)6.2 (H=13)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ HOU3011.0816.
15@ KC2410.000000.00.0
16vs DET3322.01301.
17PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.2120.11.832.4 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Andrew Beck (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ HOU2011.02902.
15@ KC1332.01301.
16vs DET3311.0100.
17PROJ-Dodds0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom1.01101.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.1)14T (+0.1)15T (-0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.1)14T (-0.1)15T (-0.2) (+0.0)
13Harrison Butker11558810.010.0
14Ryan Succop0166666.06.0
15Josh Lambo2222889.09.0
16Mike Badgley1122555.05.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14@ HOU1155888.08.0
15@ KC1100333.03.0
16vs DET2233999.09.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-1.1)9T (-1.1)26T (-0.9)26T (-0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.3)28 (+3.3)26T (+2.9)26T (+2.9)
13Kansas City Chiefs933222101141420.020.0
14Tennessee Titans2135620101161610.010.0
15Jacksonville Jaguars1636440000445.05.0
16Los Angeles Chargers2436630000333.03.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

14@ HOU24.0041432101212117.017.0
15@ KC23.0041931000555.05.0
16vs DET17.0019140000445.05.0
17PROJ-Dodds18.203312.30.90.700.510.210.210.2 (H=24)10.2 (H=33)
17PROJ-Tremblay18.753342.10.80.800. (H=22)9.8 (H=31)