Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 25, Texans 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense24.5 (+1.7) (10)132 (+19) (6)224 (-11) (22)
Texans Defense23.3 (+0.6) (18)113 (+0) (20)270 (+34) (30)

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense24.3 (+1.5) (11)127 (+14) (10)239 (+3) (10)
Titans Defense21.1 (-1.6) (13)104 (-8) (11)259 (+23) (24)

Titans Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Titans shut down their workhorse running back, Derrick Henry, for last week's game in preparation for having him as healthy as possible for this week's contest against Houston. Henry has been dealing with a hamstring injury for the past few weeks, but he has played well through the injury with no apparent limitations--seeing at least 18 carries in each of his last five games while averaging 137 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns over that span. Dion Lewis played relatively well in relief of Henry, but he has struggled running the ball for most of the season and will immediately revert back to his passing-down role with Henry back on the field. The coaching staff for Tennessee has found creative ways to get other players involved in this rushing offense as well, seeing both A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith bust big plays on the ground in the past two weeks. Ryan Tannehill also adds some upside with his legs as he is almost certain to tuck it and run a couple of times per game. The Titans offensive line must be given some credit for the overall success of this rushing offense, as this group has blocked very well on running downs with strong play from their tackles and center Ben Jones. This is a must-win game for the Titans, and they should continue to lean heavily on their rushing offense with Derrick Henry this week.

The Texans run defense has been friendly to opposing running backs over the second half of the season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position since Week 9. While many of those fantasy points have come via receiving touchdowns from running backs, they still have allowed production on the ground as even Ronald Jones from Tampa Bay’s bottom-tier rushing offense managed to average 5.5 yards per carry for 77 yards and a touchdown last week--arguably his best game of the season. This week, the Texans have little to play for given the division is already locked up. With linebacker Bernardrick McKinney recovering from a concussion, it could be likely for him to be held out of this game. Zach Cunningham is a solid run defender, but the depth behind McKinney is quite suspect and would leave this second level vulnerable. D.J. Reader is the top interior lineman on this team and does a great job plugging his side of the line, but the rest of this line hasn’t made much of an impact this season and should present winnable matchups for the Titans in the trenches.

Titans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing offense continues to impress as they head into this must-win season finale against the Texans. Tannehill has passed for at least 270 yards in three straight games with multiple touchdowns in all but one of his nine starts this season. While he has been caught holding on to the ball a bit too long given the challenges this Titans offensive line has had in pass protection, that is one the only flaws to point out with the play from Tannehill over these past few weeks. A.J. Brown had a tough time with his matchup against Marshon Lattimore last week, but he is in a great spot to bounce back this week against this Houston secondary he torched for 114 yards and a touchdown back in Week 15. That last game against the Texans is the only game in which Brown has been afforded double-digit targets, but he still leads this offense in targets and appears to be the central focus of this passing offense. Jonnu Smith also remains involved as the Titans have really been reminded how athletic of a tight end he can be in recent weeks. Tajae Sharpe has also seen an increase in playing time with Adam Humphries sidelined, and after scoring twice while leading the team in targets last week, he should maintain some level of involvement in this offense even if Humphries does suit up this week.

Houston’s passing defense has been one of the worst in the league on the season, giving up the third-most passing yards per game (270.3) and second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. To their credit, they have been quite the opportunistic unit in recent weeks with seven interceptions--at least one per game--over the past four weeks. However, they have still given up 312 passing yards per game and sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over that span. This week’s rematch against a Titans passing offense that amassed 279 passing yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 15 should stack up to yield similar results, as the Titans have everything to play for while the Texans are cruising into the playoffs. All three starting Titans receivers will see advantages in their matchups, particularly A.J. Brown, who should see most coverage from Gareon Conley. Jonnu Smith should also be in a good spot despite his inconsistent contributions in the passing offense, as the Texans were gouged by Denver tight ends three weeks ago and gave up five catches for 60 yards to Smith in their last meeting.

Texans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Texans offense was stifled last week against Tampa Bay as they struggled to move the ball in any productive manner. On the season, however, this has been a solid rushing offense led by Carlos Hyde as their lead back. Hyde cracked the 100-yard mark with a touchdown in his last game two weeks ago against the Titans. He has since been dealing with an ankle injury though, actually coming down to near a game-time decision last week. Despite reports indicating the Texans do not plan to rest any starters, keep an eye on Hyde’s status coming into the game as he certainly could be a candidate for some workload management headed into the playoffs. The offensive line for Houston has been lackluster all season long, Left tackle Laremy Tunsil has looked better over the back half of the season, but the right side of this line continues to struggle to the point where they are rotating between guys at the right tackle position--which is terrible for overall chemistry in the trenches. Even with the struggles of this line, however, Houston still has an above-average rushing offense with a mobile quarterback that can also do some damage on the ground.

The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in recent weeks despite a defense full of personnel fully capable of challenging opposing running backs. Since Week 9, this team is allowing an average of 99 rushing yards per game to running backs and has given up at least one touchdown to the position in six of seven games with multiple touchdowns allowed in three of those contests. Carlos Hyde ran for 104 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting as well, but it did take him a season-high 26 carries to achieve that level of production. Even with some rough outings in recent weeks, this Titans defense is still limiting teams to an average of just 4.0 yards per carry (6th-fewest) and has given up only six runs of 20 or more yards (T-4th fewest). For this week, the Titans will hope to have a fully healthy group up front, including Jeffery Simmons, who was held out of last week’s game with a knee injury. If Simmons is healthy enough to suit up, his presence alongside Jurrell Casey and DaQuan Jones should pose a challenge for the mediocre Texans offensive line. Titans linebackers have also done a decent job against the run and should put up a good fight against a Texans offense with little to play for and a banged-up starting running back in Carlos Hyde.

Texans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Texans passing offense has the pieces to be one of the most dynamic groups in football but headed into Week 17, a number of those pieces are now banged up and coming off a dreadful performance against the Buccaneers in Week 16. Will Fuller has been injured on and off all season, and after suffering a groin injury last week, he will now be unavailable for the season finale. The lack of Fuller leaves Deshaun Watson without a key field-stretching target while DeAndre Hopkins sees increased focus from the defense, making it tough for him to remain productive. Kenny Stills typically sees increased playing time in the absence of Fuller, but even he got banged up last week and could be questionable coming into this week. Despite reports from the Houston coaching staff that all starters will play in what is a meaningless game for them, it will be worth keeping a close eye on these key starters--as Watson, Stills, and Hopkins have all dealt with injury issues and would be prime candidates for some rest. Options down the depth chart like quarterback A.J. McCarron or receiver Keke Coutee could come into play this week.

Tennessee has a solid defense, but their secondary has been in a bad spot due to injuries in recent weeks. Over the past four weeks, since cornerback Adoree Jackson went down with an injury, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. An opposing receiver has exceeded 100 receiving yards in three of those last four games for Tennessee, and DeAndre Hopkins was one of those receivers back in Week 15. The matchup for Hopkins may not be as premium this week though, as cornerback Adoree Jackson was at practice this week and could be ready to suit up given the high stakes of Sunday’s game for Tennessee. Hopkins will still have the edge over Jackson, but not nearly as nice of a matchup as what he would have had against Trumaine Brock or LeShaun Sims. The Titans had a tough time getting to Deshaun Watson in their last matchup, and they have struggled to apply consistent pressure all season. The Texans pass protection has been nothing to write home about, but allowing Watson plenty of time against this secondary is a recipe for disaster for this susceptible Titans defense.

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.6)31 (+4.6)28 (+3.5)30 (+4.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.8)27 (+4.8)26 (+4.3)28 (+5.6)
13Tom Brady87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14Drew Lock59222730931315028.028.024.927.9
15Ryan Tannehill67223627921310128.
16Jameis Winston73254833514216018.418.415.018.0

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6800)

14@ OAK62212739131419032.532.528.531.5
15vs HOU672236279213101282825.225.2
16vs NO6217272723018026.426.423.723.7
17PROJ-Dodds19292371.60.84170.3212121.0 (H=49)21.0 (H=57)
17PROJ-Tremblay18292311.40.84180.319.919.919.9 (H=44)19.9 (H=52)
17PROJ-Bloom16232111.90.64220.522.722.722.7 (H=56)22.7 (H=65)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.7)26 (+3.1)24 (+2.5)25 (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.2)26 (+5.3)26 (+4.9)26 (+4.5)
13James White681479011898229.737.733.737.7
13Sony Michel151045000004.
14Phillip Lindsay3116511224011.513.512.513.5
14Royce Freeman27824022819.
15Derrick Henry392186010008.
15Dion Lewis243100111118.
16Ronald Jones37147714332016.919.918.419.9
16Dare Ogunbowale27000533403.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $8100)

14@ OAK3718103211.06022.923.923.426.9
15vs HOU392186010.0008.
16vs NO000000.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds19910.71.3130.115.216.515.8 (H=27)16.5 (H=31)
17PROJ-Tremblay19880.71.4120.114.816.215.5 (H=26)16.2 (H=30)
17PROJ-Bloom22900. (H=28)16.8 (H=32)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4800)

14@ OAK24926011.0503.
15vs HOU24310011.01118.
16vs NO431568021.01908.
17PROJ-Dodds4140.11.4100.13.654.3 (H=4)5.0 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay4160.11.28034.23.6 (H=3)4.2 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom3110.10.0001.71.71.7 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)

Khari Blasingame (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ OAK1300022.04704.
15vs HOU1300011.000010.51.0
16vs NO400010.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0000.7500.51.20.8 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.1)20 (+1.3)20 (+1.3)20 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.5)19 (+0.4)18 (-0.1)22 (+1.5)
13Julian Edelman8012610611-7015.921.918.924.9
13Jakobi Meyers61734600004.
14Tim Patrick37325000005.
14DaeSean Hamilton44423600003.
15A.J. Brown61138114100017.425.421.428.4
15Corey Davis51635700005.
16Justin Watson7010543100010.315.312.815.3
16Breshad Perriman70127102000010.217.213.720.2

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $7000)

14@ OAK5275.01532113028.633.631.136.6
15vs HOU61138.0114100017.425.421.428.4
16vs NO6221.0340149114.315.314.815.3
17PROJ-Dodds4.8760.513010.915.713.3 (H=24)15.7 (H=33)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.7750.502010.715.413.0 (H=23)15.4 (H=32)
17PROJ-Bloom6.0810.81110142017.0 (H=37)20.0 (H=51)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4300)

14@ OAK3044.02500002.
15vs HOU2722.02800002.
16vs NO3965.069200018.923.921.423.9
17PROJ-Dodds2.8320.20004.47.25.8 (H=7)7.2 (H=14)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2290.20004.16.35.2 (H=6)6.3 (H=11)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0210.20003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=8)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

14@ OAK4742.03400003.
15vs HOU5163.05700005.
16vs NO4443.0400000475.57.0
17PROJ-Dodds2.2290.20004.16.35.2 (H=6)6.3 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=2)3.9 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0460.40007108.5 (H=15)10.0 (H=26)

Kalif Raymond (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ OAK1221.01100001.
15vs HOU1521.0200000.
16vs NO822.03200003.
17PROJ-Dodds1.1170.10002.33.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.7)23 (+0.8)22 (+0.9)23 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.3)27 (+4.3)29 (+4.4)28 (+4.9)
13Matt LaCosse53212402.
14Noah Fant2944113117.321.319.324.3
15Jonnu Smith545560011.716.714.216.7
16O.J. Howard61734604.

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4200)

14@ OAK4943.02918.911.910.411.9
15vs HOU5455.060011.716.714.216.7
16vs NO5143.063112.315.313.815.3
17PROJ-Dodds3.2370. (H=8)8.1 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.7320. (H=7)7.1 (H=14)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0550.47.911.99.9 (H=18)11.9 (H=34)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ OAK1211.03903.
15vs HOU1841.0700.
16vs NO1310.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.4190. (H=3)3.9 (H=8)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.7200. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-0.0)9T (-0.0)19 (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.1)9 (-1.1)10 (-1.2) (+0.0)
13Kai Forbath1112444.04.0
14Brandon McManus1155888.08.0
15Ryan Succop0133333.03.0
16Matt Gay23228811.011.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

16vs NO0044444.04.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (-0.0)29T (-0.0)14 (-0.2)14 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+3.5)29 (+3.5)22T (+1.9)22T (+1.9)
13New England Patriots2827630000332.02.0
14Denver Broncos2441432101212117.017.0
15Tennessee Titans2437412000555.05.0
16Tampa Bay Buccaneers23229511009910.010.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2800)

14@ OAK21.0035620101161610.010.0
15vs HOU24.0037412000555.05.0
16vs NO38.003773000033-1.0-1.0
17PROJ-Dodds22.3036920.90.600. (H=19)8.1 (H=26)
17PROJ-Tremblay20.753742.210.700.4999.0 (H=23)9.0 (H=32)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.5)17 (+0.6)17 (+0.3)19 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.1)24 (+2.5)24 (+2.2)24 (+2.2)
13Jacoby Brissett722540319121-1017.917.914.717.7
14Derek Carr63253426320217022.922.920.220.2
15Deshaun Watson63192724322732021.421.418.918.9
16Drew Brees682738279303-3025.725.722.922.9

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6700)

14vs DEN802850292126442333330.130.1
15@ TEN63192724322732021.421.418.918.9
16@ TB66193218401737011.911.910.110.1
17PROJ-Dodds20312321.40.85250.320.720.720.7 (H=47)20.7 (H=56)
17PROJ-Tremblay22342581.315260.321.521.521.5 (H=50)21.5 (H=60)
17PROJ-Bloom10161261.30.44280. (H=27)15.1 (H=32)

AJ McCarron (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5000)

14vs DEN000000000000.00.0
15@ TEN000000000000.00.0
16@ TB000000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds69610.40.21104.64.64.6 (H=4)4.6 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay00000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Bloom813900.60.30006.66.66.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=10)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.7)20 (+1.8)19 (+1.2)20 (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.5)23 (+1.9)24 (+1.9)23 (+2.1)
13Nyheim Hines3142212218010.
13Jordan Wilkins321147032905.
14DeAndre Washington40145317643015.621.618.621.6
14Jalen Richard247280321804.
15Carlos Hyde42261041000016.416.416.419.4
15Duke Johnson21240321902.
16Alvin Kamara44118027630023.
16Latavius Murray257140321102.

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5000)

14vs DEN411473032.0507.
15@ TEN4226104100.00016.416.416.419.4
16@ TB391727111.01009.710.710.210.7
17PROJ-Dodds16650.40.6409.39.99.6 (H=15)9.9 (H=21)
17PROJ-Tremblay16680.30.7509.19.89.5 (H=15)9.8 (H=20)
17PROJ-Bloom12500.40.0007.47.47.4 (H=10)7.4 (H=12)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4300)

14vs DEN4215086.04004.510.57.510.5
15@ TEN2124032.01902.
16@ TB2924041.01201.
17PROJ-Dodds5200.12.6240. (H=10)8.2 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay4190.12.9250. (H=11)8.5 (H=18)
17PROJ-Bloom8250.22.0220. (H=12)8.5 (H=18)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.4)17 (+0.4)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.0)13 (-1.6)12 (-1.8)17 (-0.5)
13Zach Pascal72107109000010.917.914.420.9
13Marcus Johnson67645500005.
14Tyrell Williams52433500003.
14Keelan Doss28332600002.
15Kenny Stills393335200015.518.517.018.5
15DeAndre Hopkins6386119000011.917.914.920.9
16Michael Thomas611712136100019.631.625.634.6
16TreQuan Smith38211300001.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7800)

14vs DEN80137.01201112019.226.222.729.2
15@ TEN6386.0119000011.917.914.920.9
16@ TB6595.02300002.
17PROJ-Dodds7.0810.400010.517.514.0 (H=23)17.5 (H=36)
17PROJ-Tremblay7.4880.401011.318.715.0 (H=26)18.7 (H=40)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=19)15.1 (H=28)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4600)

14vs DEN7722.0800000.
15@ TEN3933.035200015.518.517.018.5
16@ TB5695.05700005.710.78.210.7
17PROJ-Dodds3.8520.3000710.88.9 (H=15)10.8 (H=26)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.5640.30008.212.710.5 (H=20)12.7 (H=35)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0450.40006.99.98.4 (H=13)9.9 (H=23)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3300)

14vs DEN5785.06800006.811.87.310.8
15@ TEN000.000000000.00.0
16@ TB000.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.8240.100034.83.9 (H=3)4.8 (H=9)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.8240.100034.83.9 (H=3)4.8 (H=9)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0200.20003.25.24.2 (H=4)5.2 (H=10)

DeAndre Carter (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

14vs DEN000.000000000.00.0
15@ TEN000.000000000.00.0
16@ TB2922.04400004.
17PROJ-Dodds1.5190.10002.543.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.3400000.40.70.7 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0310.30004.97.96.5 (H=11)8.0 (H=20)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+1.7)28 (+1.9)27T (+1.6)27 (+1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.8)28 (+5.5)27 (+4.2)27 (+4.8)
13Jack Doyle6811673113.319.316.319.3
14Foster Moreau26331417.410.48.910.4
15Jordan Akins3822700.
16Jared Cook364384220.423.421.923.4

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3100)

14vs DEN4542.0200.
15@ TEN5221.0200.
16@ TB5233.02702.
17PROJ-Dodds2.2210. (H=6)6.1 (H=14)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.1210. (H=5)5.4 (H=11)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0170. (H=5)5.5 (H=12)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs DEN5194.04904.
15@ TEN3822.0700.
16@ TB4120.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds2.2240. (H=6)5.8 (H=15)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.3270. (H=7)6.2 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.1)7T (-1.1)7 (-1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.4)7 (-1.4)5T (-2.0) (+0.0)
13Adam Vinatieri1422555.05.0
14Daniel Carlson0033333.03.0
15Kaimi Fairbairn1133666.06.0
16Wil Lutz1155889.09.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs DEN1133668.08.0
15@ TEN1133666.06.0
16@ TB3322111111.011.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.5)11 (-0.6)11 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (-0.2)17T (-0.2)10 (-1.8)10 (-1.8)
13Indianapolis Colts312926020010109.09.0
14Oakland Raiders425520100022-2.0-2.0
15Houston Texans2143221000446.06.0
16New Orleans Saints2839750100776.06.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2800)

14vs DEN38.0039111000332.02.0
15@ TEN21.0043221000446.06.0
16@ TB20.0043534101191922.022.0
17PROJ-Dodds24.903622. (H=16)7.7 (H=24)
17PROJ-Tremblay24.253551.90.80.500. (H=14)7.2 (H=21)