Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 18, Bills 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense17.5 (-5.2) (28)78 (-34) (31)195 (-40) (30)
Bills Defense16.4 (-6.4) (2)104 (-8) (12)196 (-39) (3)

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense20.5 (-2.2) (23)132 (+19) (5)200 (-35) (27)
Jets Defense23.5 (+0.8) (19)88 (-24) (2)236 (+0) (15)

Jets Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bills defense.

With nothing to play for, the Jets the last two weeks are still fighting and doing everything they can to win games. In a win that significantly damaged the Steelers' chances at the playoffs, the Jets focused on LeíVeon Bell feeding him with 25 carries. Bell who has been a disappointment for most of the season does have 46 carries in his last two games but is averaging just 3.5 yards-per-carry with the increase in volume. This has largely been a season to forget for the Jets rushing attack as Bell is averaging just 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season and has not been able to get anything consistent going this year. Still, it is a positive sign that the Jets are committed to him this week as he has been on the field for 86% and 92% of the plays the last two games.

The Bills are one of those teams this week that have very little to play for as they are locked into the fifth seed and will play Houston next week. Sean McDermott is holding it a little close to the vest when it comes to starting or sitting players, but they will likely play this game similar to a preseason game where their starters play a quarter or a half, and then the backups start coming in. This could be a good sign for the Jets as the one area that the Bills have been vulnerable against is the running back position. Last week, Sony Michel shredded the Patriots rushing for 96 yards on 21 carries as the Patriots ran the ball a total of 29 times in their victory. Where the Bills are vulnerable is up the middle which is why downhill running backs can have success as the defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips have struggled, and linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds both have struggled at stopping the run. They do have two tremendous safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde who have done a great job preventing big runs, but with those two potentially sitting at some point in this game, the Bills defense looks much worse than they typically would.

Jets Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Sam Darnold has had a roller coaster of a season as he has had some great moments and some games in which he looked like a 22-year-old quarterback. In three of his last four games, Darnold has completed less than 60% of his passes and thrown for 240 yards or less. The problem in the passing game has not all been Darnoldís fault as much blame can be had on the team construction and the wide receivers themselves as the reality is that having a young quarterback and asking him to throw to Robbie Anderson and Jamison Crowder is not ideal for his development. Both Anderson and Crowder are fine players for their roles with Anderson being a deep threat and Crowder being a slot receiver, but the problem is that the Jets donít have a third guy who is an outside possession receiver.

While the Bills secondary is still one of the better units, their overall stats are propped up by a weak schedule. On the year, they have allowed the second-fewest yards to opposing quarterbacks, but they have faced two quarterbacks in the top ten of passing in the NFL this season in their 15 games which was Dak Prescott who threw for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Tom Brady who they did shut down the first appearance holding him to just 150 yards, but Brady got the best of the Bills last week throwing for 271 and two touchdowns. This is a unit that is led by TreíDavious White who is one of the top cornerbacks in the league, and the Bills have one of the best safety combinations in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde making it incredibly difficult for a big play against them. In their first meeting, the Bills held Sam Darnold to just 175 yards on 41 attempts. They did struggle to stop Jamison Crowder out of the slot allowing the receiver to catch 14 passes for 99 yards. This has been a theme for the Bills as the slot receivers have been the way to have success as Taron Johnson has struggled out of the slot.

Bills Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jets defense.

Week 17 is always a difficult week to project how running backs are going to perform and how much they are going to play. The Bills are in a situation where they do not need to play this game as they are locked into the 5th seed, but at the same time, they want to continue to develop and get game reps for rookie Devin Singletary. Singletary has taken over as the primary ball carrier in Buffalo averaging 17 carries per game over the last six games and last week Frank Gore was on the field for just two plays against a Patriots team that he had previously rushed for over 100 yards this season. If there is a concern for the Bills it is the offensive line as if there is a group that they might sit it might be on the line as center Mitch Morse is dealing with an ankle injury.

The Jets run defense continues to be one of the top units in the league, especially in the second half as they have allowed just one running back to top 50 yards since Week 9 and have only allowed one running back to top 100 yards all year. This is a unit that many feared would struggle after trading Leonard Williams, but since Week 9 the Jets have allowed just 3.0 yards-per-carry, as rookie Quinnen Williams along with Steve McLendon have been tremendous on the defensive line keeping blockers off of the safeties in Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye who are outstanding in run support. With it being expected that the Bills will bench their starters at some point in this game, expect the running game to have a difficult time finding anything against a Jets team that is still motivated as we saw last week against Pittsburgh.

Bills Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Bills are likely going to play their starters for some time in this game and then bench Josh Allen and the starters for Matt Barkley and a backup unit to come in. At the receiver position, it will likely be Cole Beasley and John Brown sitting out which will have major implications if that occurs as the Bills have one of the shallowest receiving units in football as outside of those two they do not have a receiver who has more than 25 receptions which is speedster Isaiah McKenzie. Once you get past McKenzie things get shallow as no receiver has more than 7 receptions on the year and you are looking at guys like Robert Foster, Andre Roberts, and Duke Williams.

The Jets secondary has been a unit that statistically looks better than what they are, mostly driven by the AFC Eastís easy schedule this season in which the Jets only had to play two quarterbacks in the top-10 in passing. This is a unit that started the year off poorly as Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts both struggled earlier in the season which led to Johnsonís benching and Roberts moving to a backup role. This has allowed the Jets to play Arthur Maulet and Blessuan Austin both who have been strong at the corner position and have been a big reason why the Jets are only allowing 212 yards passing since Week 12 which is the sixth-best in football. This is a unit that does give up its fair share of touchdowns as they have allowed the 13th most passing touchdowns on the year, but this is a byproduct of having a shut-down run defense and a poor offense that teams are going to throw at a higher percentage of red-zone appearances.

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.2)2 (-5.2)3 (-4.3)2 (-4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.4)11 (-1.5)15 (-0.7)15 (-0.6)
13Dak Prescott78324935521425027.327.323.727.7
14Lamar Jackson601625145311140022.322.320.820.8
15Devlin Hodges5923382021414010.510.58.58.5
16Tom Brady7326332711044018.

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5000)

14vs MIA7120362702133020.820.818.118.1
15@ BAL591832218211110191916.817.8
16vs PIT6116261831043013.513.59.610.6
17PROJ-Dodds19312011.11260.114.714.714.7 (H=29)14.7 (H=42)
17PROJ-Tremblay20322101.21250.115.415.415.4 (H=31)15.4 (H=45)
17PROJ-Bloom152814811.3360.111.311.311.3 (H=18)11.3 (H=26)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.7)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.4)13 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-2.6)15 (-2.0)14 (-2.6)14 (-2.8)
13Ezekiel Elliott691271010766013.720.717.220.7
13Tony Pollard1137010000.
14Mark Ingram3315500332907.910.99.410.9
14Gus Edwards20420000002.
15James Conner348420549111.
15Kerrith Whyte625000000.
16Rex Burkhead1952014477015.719.715.718.7
16Sony Michel3121960215010.111.110.611.1

LeVeon Bell (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5800)

14vs MIA000000.000000.00.0
15@ BAL512187022.0108.810.89.810.8
16vs PIT562572044.02109.313.311.313.3
17PROJ-Dodds18660.43.4240.11215.413.7 (H=26)15.4 (H=39)
17PROJ-Tremblay19670.43.2220.111.915.113.5 (H=25)15.1 (H=37)
17PROJ-Bloom18650.33.0150.110.413.411.9 (H=20)13.4 (H=30)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs MIA561974032.01408.810.89.810.8
15@ BAL000000.000000.00.0
16vs PIT413021.0500.
17PROJ-Dodds3120.11.1702.53.63.1 (H=3)3.6 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay3110.11.4902.643.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom1400.0000.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3900)

14vs MIA23931033.03006.
15@ BAL1225011.050121.52.0
16vs PIT827011.0100.
17PROJ-Dodds2600.8501.11.91.6 (H=0)2.0 (H=1)
17PROJ-Tremblay2600.7501.11.81.5 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)
17PROJ-Bloom1301.0400.71.71.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.3)4 (-4.9)4 (-5.3)4 (-5.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.7)8 (-4.1)6 (-4.4)8 (-5.0)
13Amari Cooper641188500008.516.512.516.5
13Ventell Bryant1111510007.
14Willie Snead37431310007.310.38.810.3
14Seth Roberts2741800000.
15James Washington501158300008.313.310.813.3
15Diontae Johnson44756200006.211.26.710.2
16Julian Edelman52657200007.212.211.714.2
16NKeal Harry373221021803.

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5100)

14vs MIA5673.0300000364.56.0
15@ BAL50116.0902000212724.027.0
16vs PIT5284.06000006108.010.0
17PROJ-Dodds5.3580.40008.213.510.9 (H=22)13.5 (H=35)
17PROJ-Tremblay5.9660.4000914.912.0 (H=26)14.9 (H=42)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0560.400081310.5 (H=20)13.0 (H=33)

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5300)

14vs MIA66117.01161140182521.528.0
15@ BAL5964.06600006.610.610.612.6
16vs PIT5742.03210009.
17PROJ-Dodds3.3470.20005.99.27.6 (H=11)9.2 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.9410.20005.38.26.8 (H=9)8.2 (H=14)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0370.30005.58.57.0 (H=10)8.5 (H=15)

Vyncint Smith (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

14vs MIA3531.03700003.
15@ BAL3753.0400000475.57.0
16vs PIT4943.03200003.
17PROJ-Dodds2.6340.20004.67.25.9 (H=8)7.2 (H=19)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.6340.20004.67.25.9 (H=8)7.2 (H=19)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8 (H=21)

Jeff Smith (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $--)

15@ BAL1421.01200001.
16vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0
17PROJ-Tremblay0.6700000.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.0)5 (-2.9)5 (-2.3)5 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.0)25 (+4.0)26 (+4.1)25 (+4.3)
13Jason Witten568642110.
14Hayden Hurst283373113.316.314.816.3
15Nick Vannett54654004.
16Matt LaCosse4611816.

Daniel Brown (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2600)

14vs MIA6221.0700.
15@ BAL2921.0400.
16vs PIT4110.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.4120. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.4130. (H=2)3.3 (H=6)

Trevon Wesco (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs MIA1100.000000.00.0
15@ BAL2900.000000.00.0
16vs PIT1811.03203.
17PROJ-Dodds0.7700.71.41.0 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-2.5)4T (-2.5)7T (-2.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-1.6)4 (-1.6)7 (-1.7) (+0.0)
13Brett Maher0211111.01.0
14Justin Tucker1133666.06.0
15Chris Boswell1111445.05.0
16Nick Folk3311101012.012.0

Sam Ficken (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs MIA3312101012.012.0
15@ BAL0112111.01.0
16vs PIT3311101013.013.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.9)14T (-0.9)13 (-0.4)13 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.7)14T (-0.7)16 (-0.6)16 (-0.6)
13Dallas Cowboys2635640000444.04.0
14Baltimore Ravens1720960100889.09.0
15Pittsburgh Steelers1726111100556.06.0
16New England Patriots1726840000445.05.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs MIA21.0036221000444.04.0
15@ BAL42.0043010000115.05.0
16vs PIT10.00260420008812.012.0
17PROJ-Dodds19.4032020.80.700. (H=30)9.5 (H=36)
17PROJ-Tremblay19.003361.90.90.800. (H=32)9.8 (H=38)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.5)16 (+0.4)18 (+0.4)16 (+0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.6)17 (+0.5)20 (+0.9)16 (+0.0)
13Andy Dalton662237243105-4015.815.813.313.3
14Ryan Fitzpatrick72213724501765017.817.815.315.3
15Lamar Jackson54152321250886039.
16Mason Rudolph3314201291020010.510.59.29.2

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6000)

14vs BAL7517391461029012.212.210.711.7
15@ PIT65132513911728118.818.817.417.4
16@ NE54132620820743022.722.720.620.6
17PROJ-Dodds9161030.50.43160. (H=13)9.6 (H=16)
17PROJ-Tremblay9151050.50.44160. (H=13)9.7 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom23270.20.11402.52.52.5 (H=1)2.5 (H=1)

Matt Barkley (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $4500)

14vs BAL000000000000.00.0
15@ PIT000000000000.00.0
16@ NE000000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds9161110.70.41408.38.38.3 (H=11)8.3 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay9151060.50.54130. (H=12)8.7 (H=18)
17PROJ-Bloom14231591.10.500011.911.911.9 (H=21)11.9 (H=32)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.6)9 (-2.2)10 (-2.0)9 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-4.1)8 (-5.7)10 (-4.2)8 (-5.7)
13Joe Mixon52194414426013.
13Giovani Bernard1314021801.
14Patrick Laird5915480543808.612.610.612.6
14Myles Gaskin1345021601.
15Mark Ingram34137612110120.621.623.123.6
15Gus Edwards18535000003.
16Jaylen Samuels42370643203.
16James Conner9632000003.

Devin Singletary (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5400)

14vs BAL611789086.029011.817.814.817.8
15@ PIT462187032.0208.910.97.99.9
16@ NE521546011.0204.
17PROJ-Dodds15590.32.7190.110.212.911.6 (H=22)12.9 (H=31)
17PROJ-Tremblay17710.33.1220.111.714.813.3 (H=28)14.8 (H=39)
17PROJ-Bloom10340.22.0130. (H=10)8.5 (H=15)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

14vs BAL1446000.0000.
15@ PIT191015000.0001.
16@ NE200000.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds6210.10.0002.72.72.7 (H=2)2.7 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay6210.10.2102.832.9 (H=2)3.0 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom4110.10.0001.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.5)24 (+3.6)25 (+3.1)24 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.3)24 (+2.4)24 (+1.9)20 (+1.3)
13Tyler Boyd5510559100011.916.914.416.9
13Auden Tate53746600006.610.68.610.6
14Isaiah Ford55969200009.
14Allen Hurns57856800006.811.89.311.8
15Seth Roberts363366100012.615.614.115.6
15Marquise Brown474445100010.514.512.514.5
16Diontae Johnson569881100014.
16James Washington51854100004.

John Brown (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $6000)

14vs BAL7383.02600002.
15@ PIT61107.09900009.916.913.416.9
16@ NE5241.053113011.612.612.112.6
17PROJ-Dodds3.6510.30006.910.58.7 (H=13)10.5 (H=19)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.4610.3010812.410.2 (H=17)12.4 (H=26)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0440.30006.29.27.7 (H=10)9.2 (H=15)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5700)

14vs BAL7374.02910008.912.912.914.9
15@ PIT4561.0600000.
16@ NE46127.0108000010.817.814.320.8
17PROJ-Dodds3.7430.30006.19.88.0 (H=11)9.8 (H=18)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.5540.30007.211.79.5 (H=15)11.7 (H=24)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0340.40005.88.87.3 (H=9)8.8 (H=15)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs BAL5453.02500002.
15@ PIT3000.000000000.00.0
16@ NE3122.01100001.
17PROJ-Dodds2.0210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.9220.102034.94.0 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0270.10003.36.34.8 (H=6)6.3 (H=12)

Robert Foster (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs BAL1940.000000000.00.0
15@ PIT000.000000000.00.0
16@ NE810.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.320000023.32.6 (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.8120.102022.82.4 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0470.20005.98.97.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=29)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.2)4 (-3.0)3 (-2.6)4 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.5)8 (-3.3)8 (-2.8)8 (-3.5)
13C.J. Uzomah47655105.110.17.610.1
14Mike Gesicki5051600.
15Mark Andrews237452111.
16Nick Vannett15111801.

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs BAL5541.03703.
15@ PIT3111.01101.
16@ NE4041.03303.
17PROJ-Dodds2.1250. (H=5)5.2 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.3280.246.35.2 (H=7)6.3 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=13)

Tyler Kroft (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

14vs BAL2110.000000.00.0
15@ PIT1911.01417.
16@ NE1710.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.8800.81.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.760. (H=1)1.9 (H=2)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.5)22T (+0.5)24 (+0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.4)31 (+2.4)30T (+2.8) (+0.0)
13Randy Bullock2322889.09.0
14Jason Sanders7800212124.024.0
15Justin Tucker0045444.04.0
16Chris Boswell1111445.05.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs BAL33009911.011.0
15@ PIT1122555.05.0
16@ NE1122555.05.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (+1.4)8T (+1.4)19T (+3.4)19T (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.0)8T (-2.0)19 (+0.4)19 (+0.4)
13Cincinnati Bengals6271400004413.013.0
14Miami Dolphins2237411000333.03.0
15Baltimore Ravens2131011100557.07.0
16Pittsburgh Steelers1625920100445.05.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs BAL24.0025711000333.03.0
15@ PIT10.0022944100141418.018.0
16@ NE24.0041400100222.02.0
17PROJ-Dodds18.702982. (H=26)10.9 (H=32)
17PROJ-Tremblay17.502992. (H=27)11.2 (H=34)