Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 15, Patriots 31

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense18.6 (-4.2) (26)73 (-39) (32)232 (-3) (15)
Patriots Defense13.2 (-9.6) (1)98 (-14) (7)170 (-64) (2)

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense26.4 (+3.6) (6)105 (-7) (19)250 (+14) (9)
Dolphins Defense31.3 (+8.6) (32)136 (+23) (27)265 (+29) (28)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

In his first game as an NFL lead back, Myles Gaskin looked good, but unfortunately, the woes continue for the Dolphins rushing attack as Gaskin was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. This will force the Dolphins to go back to Patrick Laird who has struggled mightily being able to consistently run the ball and has been primarily utilized as a wide receiver. Laird is averaging just 2.9 yards-per-carry which led the Dolphins to sign Samaje Perine off of the Bengals practice squad this week who will serve as the backup along with De’Lance Turner who saw four carries last week and was able to only gain six yards. This is just an overall bad combination as the offensive line lacks talent particularly at the guard position and the Dolphins have very little talent at the running back position which has ultimately led to them being last in the league in rushing this season.

The Patriots run defense has continued to be borderline dominant all year. While they do give up about league average in yards-per-carry at 4.2, the few times opponents have had success is when the Patriots have gotten a lead and played in their conservative dime defense. When the Patriots want to stop the run, they have shown that they are one of the best in football as they have allowed just one rushing touchdown all season and the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Upfront, the Patriots rotate Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler at the defensive tackle position. When they are in the dime defense, Shelton and Guy come out which does leave them vulnerable against the run, but this is done smartly whether it is when the Patriots have a big lead or on an obvious passing down. Simply put, you aren’t going to beat this team running the ball when they think you are going to run the only way to do it is when they think you are going to throw as evidenced by Joe Mixon, Frank Gore, and Nick Chubb all topping 100 yards in games in which they fell behind by multiple scores.

Dolphins Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Whatever Ryan Fitzpatrick’s future holds he has brought a fight to this team and made them competitive overcoming talent shortages on both sides of the ball. Fitzpatrick threw for 419 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Bengals. Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker both had big days last week and have been bright spots in the second half of the season. Albert Wilson over the last two weeks has stepped up as a nice complementary role as he has seen an increase in snaps the past two weeks to 80% and 73% respectively after having topped 50% just twice this season as the Dolphins look for receivers to fill in for Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant. The Dolphins may be without Allen Hurns this week who is dealing with an ankle and knee injuries and has been limited in practice this week.

The Patriots secondary continues to be the best group in football as they have not allowed a quarterback to throw for over 283 yards, and have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards. This is a unit that is veteran-led and does not have any flaws especially now that Jonathan Jones is likely to return after suffering a groin injury that kept him out, and Jason McCourty also was at practice this week as he continues to struggle with a groin injury. If those two were unable to go, the Patriots would likely turn to Joejuan Williams once again, and the rookie was tested but held his ground this past week as Devin McCourty mostly shadowed him assisting him through his first game as a starter. The key to this entire defense continues to be Stephon Gilmore who is the best cornerback in the league and a likely candidate to win defensive player of the year. In a game the Patriots need to win, this is likely going to be a tough day for the Dolphins in this one.

Patriots Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Sony Michel for two weeks in a row looks more like the player we saw in his rookie season compared to the player that we have seen this season. Over the last two games, Michel has averaged 20 carries for 93.5 yards rushing. Michel still runs the risk any time that the Patriots fall behind that he will see his snap counts reduced significantly as he is limited as a receiving back and is limited as a big-play running back as he is mostly a between the tackles runner. The good news for the Patriots is that the offensive line is also starting to come together after a season of significant injuries. The guards, Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney both are playing at a high level which is critical for Michel to have success as that is where most of his running lanes come from.

The Dolphins on the season are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs at 121 yards per game. This is a unit that while they have faced significant volume due to game script and falling behind, has major flaws on their defense particularly at the linebacker and safety position as Jerome Baker and rookie Sam Eguavoen have both struggled mightily trying to fill the gap left by Raekwon McMillan. At the safety position, there is significant inexperience as rookie Montre Hartage and Adrian Colbert both have struggled mightily particularly at preventing big plays as Saquon Barkley evidenced two weeks ago with his 112 yards and 2 touchdown performance. This is a unit that has allowed seven 100 yard or more running backs on the season and expect a heavy dosage of Michel this week who had 85 yards back in Week 2 when the Dolphins had a full complement of players.

Patriots Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Tom Brady continues to deal with an elbow injury that reports this week indicate are an issue. Tom Brady downplayed the report saying that they won’t be an issue going forward and indicated that it was a tennis elbow type injury. Even so, Brady has been limited over the last several weeks as he had completed 53% of his passes or less in four straight games heading into last week. Last week, Brady looked sharp completing 78% of his passes and throwing for 271 yards against a very good Bills secondary. This was mostly done through check-downs trying to get the ball into the hands of playmakers in space to run after the catch as Brady did a great job distributing the ball to nine different receivers which are far more than what we had seen in recent weeks. There is some optimism coming as the Patriots prepare for the playoffs.

The Dolphins secondary has had some of the most turnovers of any unit in football throughout the season and the results are clear as this is one of the worst units in the NFL. Over the last five weeks, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 317 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. This is bad regardless of the competition, but when factoring in the competition it makes it even worse. They allowed these games to Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Eli Manning, and Sam Darnold which none of these quarterbacks are in the top-10 in passing this season, and only Carson Wentz is in the top half. The Dolphins are starting Nik Needham who is an undrafted rookie, and Jomal Wiltz who is an undrafted third-year player, but a rookie as he had no experience on an active roster before this year. At the safety position, they are playing Montre Hartage who is also an undrafted rookie, and Adrian Colbert who has the most experience of the starters but is still new to the system after being cut by the Seahawks who have their own safety problems earlier this year. Simply put, this is a matchup that Tom Brady should be able to exploit as he is facing three undrafted first-year players.

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.8)1 (-6.8)1 (-6.1)1 (-7.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)14 (-1.1)14 (-0.8)12 (-1.6)
13Deshaun Watson561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9
14Patrick Mahomes7826402831166017.817.814.914.9
15Andy Dalton661731151142107.
16Josh Allen54132620820743022.722.720.620.6

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5800)

14@ NYJ72213724501765017.817.815.315.3
15@ NYG71234127920433025.325.320.521.5
16vs CIN9031524194159036.936.932.735.7
17PROJ-Dodds22372351.11.34190.117.417.417.4 (H=38)17.4 (H=48)
17PROJ-Tremblay233825011.13150.117.517.517.5 (H=38)17.5 (H=49)
17PROJ-Bloom213718311.54210.114.414.414.4 (H=27)14.4 (H=34)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.0)1 (-8.1)1 (-7.9)1 (-8.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.6)3 (-7.4)4 (-6.8)4 (-7.3)
13Duke Johnson3893606554115.020.017.520.0
13Carlos Hyde211017011502.
14Darwin Thompson21470543604.
14LeSean McCoy241139031404.
15Joe Mixon442513603320015.618.617.121.6
15Giovani Bernard225270221003.
16Devin Singletary521546011204.
16T.J. Yeldon000000000.

Patrick Laird (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4300)

14@ NYJ591548054.03808.612.610.612.6
15@ NYG341246052.0805.
16vs CIN49817011.0101.
17PROJ-Dodds11390.23.8250.18.21210.1 (H=21)12.0 (H=34)
17PROJ-Tremblay10380.24.3300.18.612.910.8 (H=24)12.9 (H=39)
17PROJ-Bloom12300.23.0130. (H=13)9.1 (H=21)

DeLance Turner (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

14@ NYJ000000.000000.00.0
15@ NYG000000.000000.00.0
16vs CIN546000.0000.
17PROJ-Dodds5170.10.0002.32.32.3 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay5200.10.0002.62.62.6 (H=2)2.6 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom5170.10.0002.32.32.3 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.6)1 (-9.8)1 (-9.0)1 (-10.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.2)7 (-4.4)8 (-3.8)7 (-5.0)
13Kenny Stills384361100012.115.113.615.1
13DeAndre Hopkins478564000010.715.713.115.6
14Mecole Hardman141148100010.811.811.311.8
14Tyreek Hill71866202807.
15Tyler Boyd57732600002.
15John Ross25322400002.
16John Brown524153113011.612.612.112.6
16Cole Beasley46127108000010.817.814.320.8

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $7100)

14@ NYJ1822.02800002.
15@ NYG6774.072200019.
16vs CIN75155.0111100017.122.119.625.1
17PROJ-Dodds4.7670.30008.513.210.9 (H=18)13.2 (H=24)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.6670.30008.513.110.8 (H=17)13.1 (H=24)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0610.40008.513.511.0 (H=18)13.5 (H=25)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4200)

14@ NYJ1721.0500000.
15@ NYG5785.05900005.910.98.410.9
16vs CIN6677.07901908.815.812.315.8
17PROJ-Dodds3.8350.11304.48.26.3 (H=8)8.2 (H=18)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.3320.11304.17.45.8 (H=7)7.4 (H=15)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0410.20005.310.37.8 (H=12)10.3 (H=27)

Isaiah Ford (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

14@ NYJ5596.09200009.
15@ NYG3153.02100002.
16vs CIN3865.06800006.811.89.311.8
17PROJ-Dodds2.3280.10003.45.74.6 (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.0370.10004.37.35.8 (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
17PROJ-Bloom2.01100001.13.12.1 (H=1)3.1 (H=3)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3400)

14@ NYJ5785.06800006.811.89.311.8
15@ NYG3311.0900000.
16vs CIN3222.04100004.
17PROJ-Dodds2.4270.10003.35.74.5 (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2280.10003.45.64.5 (H=5)5.6 (H=11)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0130.10001.93.92.9 (H=2)3.9 (H=6)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-0.8)7 (-1.7)8 (-1.4)7 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.4)18 (+0.7)18 (+0.6)15 (+0.2)
13Darren Fells42322318.310.39.310.3
14Travis Kelce779766013.020.014.519.0
15Cethan Carter32221317.
16Dawson Knox40413303.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4000)

14@ NYJ5051.0600.
15@ NYG5584.04704.
16vs CIN58126.082220.
17PROJ-Dodds3.5380.258.56.8 (H=9)8.5 (H=20)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.3340. (H=8)7.9 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0440. (H=11)9.6 (H=25)

Clive Walford (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ NYJ3300.0000.
15@ NYG1942.03403.
16vs CIN2821.01501.
17PROJ-Dodds0.8900.91.71.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Durham Smythe (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ NYJ4111.0200.
15@ NYG2300.000000.00.0
16vs CIN5522.01801.
17PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-2.3)14T (-2.3)2 (-2.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.1)14 (-0.1)15T (-0.2) (+0.0)
13Kaimi Fairbairn0044444.04.0
14Harrison Butker3322111113.013.0
15Randy Bullock2211778.08.0
16Steve Hauschka1122555.05.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14@ NYJ7800212124.024.0
15@ NYG2322889.09.0
16vs CIN1255888.08.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.1)14 (-0.1)6T (-1.8)6T (-1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.5)5T (-2.5)6 (-2.6)6 (-2.6)
13Houston Texans2244831000555.05.0
14Kansas City Chiefs1627831000558.08.0
15Cincinnati Bengals3429120000221.01.0
16Buffalo Bills2441400100222.02.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1800)

14@ NYJ22.0037411000333.03.0
15@ NYG36.0041213010996.06.0
16vs CIN35.0043040100662.02.0
17PROJ-Dodds28.403812.20.90.500. (H=15)6.2 (H=26)
17PROJ-Tremblay30.253922.50.90.500. (H=15)6.1 (H=25)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.2)30 (+4.2)31 (+4.7)31 (+4.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.7)26 (+4.6)28 (+5.2)29 (+6.0)
13Carson Wentz7128463103100026.526.525.428.4
14Sam Darnold7120362702133020.820.818.118.1
15Eli Manning6620282832300019.219.216.316.3
16Andy Dalton9033563964000035.835.833.837.8

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6000)

14vs KC67193616911220013.513.511.811.8
15@ CIN651529128202-2014.214.212.912.9
16vs BUF73263327110440181817.217.2
17PROJ-Dodds233727120.7120.222.322.322.3 (H=56)22.3 (H=72)
17PROJ-Tremblay243927720.9240.222.622.622.6 (H=58)22.6 (H=73)
17PROJ-Bloom25332482.51110. (H=56)22.1 (H=71)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.4)24 (+2.5)26 (+3.1)27 (+3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (-0.1)18 (-1.0)19 (-0.4)18 (-0.8)
13Miles Sanders62178305522116.521.519.021.5
13Jay Ajayi929000000.
14Bilal Powell5619740321408.810.89.810.8
14Ty Montgomery239310333006.
15Saquon Barkley542411225431026.330.328.333.3
15Javorius Allen14828100008.
16Joe Mixon3921500222307.
16Giovani Bernard51230321201.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4900)

14vs KC958011.0100.
15@ CIN271989021.014010.311.310.811.3
16vs BUF312196021.05010.111.110.611.1
17PROJ-Dodds15660.61.080111211.5 (H=21)12.0 (H=30)
17PROJ-Tremblay14580.51.2909.710.910.3 (H=17)10.9 (H=25)
17PROJ-Bloom19900.71.04013.614.614.1 (H=30)14.6 (H=42)

James White (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5900)

14vs KC41633075.02707.812.89.912.4
15@ CIN25313043.049112.215.213.715.2
16vs BUF3335054.02402.
17PROJ-Dodds5200.24.6420.39.213.811.5 (H=21)13.8 (H=31)
17PROJ-Tremblay6240.24.9430.39.714.612.2 (H=24)14.6 (H=35)
17PROJ-Bloom380.14.0310.57.511.59.5 (H=15)11.5 (H=23)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4500)

14vs KC18715010.0001.
15@ CIN20653122.06011.913.912.913.9
16vs BUF19520144.077015.719.715.718.7
17PROJ-Dodds6230.22.1210. (H=10)8.3 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay5210.22.1190. (H=9)7.9 (H=15)
17PROJ-Bloom4190.22.0210. (H=8)7.8 (H=15)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.7)31 (+7.0)31 (+7.1)31 (+7.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+12.7)32 (+16.3)32 (+15.0)32 (+18.7)
13Alshon Jeffery64169137100019.728.724.231.7
13J.J. Arcega-Whiteside27211510007.
14Robby Anderson66117116114018.025.021.528.0
14Demaryius Thomas37422810008.810.89.810.8
15Sterling Shepard54119111000011.120.115.623.1
15Golden Tate384151100011.112.111.612.1
16Tyler Boyd83159128200024.833.829.336.8
16John Ross711368402609.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7300)

14vs KC66128.095118016.324.320.324.3
15@ CIN4052.0900000.
16vs BUF5265.07200007.212.211.714.2
17PROJ-Dodds6.0760.613011.517.514.5 (H=27)17.5 (H=38)
17PROJ-Tremblay6.3770.602011.517.814.7 (H=28)17.8 (H=40)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0620.50009.214.211.7 (H=18)14.2 (H=27)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

14vs KC211.01200001.
15@ CIN3842.015122209.711.710.711.7
16vs BUF3732.021021803.
17PROJ-Dodds2.2270.21604.56.75.6 (H=7)6.7 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.21403.95.64.8 (H=5)5.6 (H=9)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0370.521508.211.29.7 (H=18)11.2 (H=31)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4100)

14vs KC3911.01300001.
15@ CIN5682.01300001.
16vs BUF7053.02400002.
17PROJ-Dodds2.5290.20004.16.65.4 (H=7)6.7 (H=13)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.3260.20103.96.25.1 (H=6)6.3 (H=11)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0260.4000586.6 (H=9)8.1 (H=18)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3300)

14vs KC3831.03500003.
15@ CIN700.000000000.00.0
16vs BUF1433.02500002.
17PROJ-Dodds2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.5360.20004.87.36.1 (H=8)7.3 (H=18)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0350.20004.77.76.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=20)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs KC3320.000000000.00.0
15@ CIN900.000000000.00.0
16vs BUF500.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.1160.20002.83.93.4 (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.3180.200034.33.7 (H=3)4.3 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.1)19 (+0.4)21 (+0.4)20 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.6)22 (+1.4)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.7)
13Dallas Goedert40766606.612.69.612.6
14Ryan Griffin311800.
15Kaden Smith68333803.
16Tyler Eifert578457111.715.715.717.7

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

14vs KC5442.01401.
15@ CIN4933.02202.
16vs BUF4611.0816.
17PROJ-Dodds1.5150. (H=2)3.6 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.2130. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs KC3231.0700.
15@ CIN3400.000000.00.0
16vs BUF3133.01501.
17PROJ-Dodds1.2130. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.1120. (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0170. (H=4)4.9 (H=11)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+2.3)32 (+2.3)26T (+2.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.1)24 (+1.1)26 (+1.8) (+0.0)
13Jake Elliott3422111113.013.0
14Sam Ficken3312101012.012.0
15Aldrick Rosas0045444.04.0
16Randy Bullock2211779.09.0

Nick Folk (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs KC1211444.04.0
15@ CIN2244101012.012.0
16vs BUF3311101012.012.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.9)28 (+1.9)2T (+2.9)2T (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-1.5)12T (-1.5)2 (-3.3)2 (-3.3)
13Philadelphia Eagles3740931000551.01.0
14New York Jets2136221000444.04.0
15New York Giants2038430100558.08.0
16Cincinnati Bengals3850221000440.00.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4300)

14vs KC23.0034611100557.07.0
15@ CIN13.0031504101161620.020.0
16vs BUF17.0026840000445.05.0
17PROJ-Dodds14.103172.71.1100.714.114.114.1 (H=39)14.1 (H=45)
17PROJ-Tremblay14.753352. (H=33)12.9 (H=39)