Matchup Analysis: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Packers 26, Lions 16

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense23.5 (+0.8) (14)112 (+0) (15)228 (-7) (19)
Lions Defense26.7 (+3.9) (26)116 (+3) (21)283 (+47) (32)

Detroit Lions Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Lions Offense21.4 (-1.4) (20)99 (-13) (22)251 (+15) (8)
Packers Defense19.5 (-3.2) (9)117 (+4) (23)239 (+3) (18)

Packers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Lions defense.

This Packers rushing offense has been in good shape in recent weeks with Aaron Jones on an absolute heater. Jones has five rushing touchdowns in the past three weeks with two games of 130 or more yards over that span. He did struggle with just 51 rushing yards in Week 15 against Chicago, but he still found the end zone twice and looks to now be the relatively undisputed goal-line option for Green Bay. This week could afford Jones even more of an opportunity as Jamaal Wiliams was forced from last week’s game with a shoulder injury that has him questionable coming into this game. Williams has maintained a steady role in this rushing offense, but he has had nowhere near the level of production as Jones for most of the season. Williams did have his best game of the year in Week 6 against the Lions, but his banged-up shoulder and a hot hand in Jones should make it tough for Williams to repeat that outing if he even suits up.

The Lions run defense has been playing better over the second half of the season, but last week’s game against the Broncos reminded the league that this can be a bottom-tier unit on any given week as they have shown for most of the season. The Lions gave up two rushing touchdowns to the Broncos while allowing Phillip Lindsay to have one of his best games of the season with 109 rushing yards. A big weakness for this Lions defense has been at the linebacker position, as they haven’t been consistent against the run there all season while injuries have now taken out three starters after the loss of Jahlini Tavai last week. Damon Harrison remains a force against the run on the defensive line, but he has limited support around him and will certainly have a lack of talent behind him this week. Aaron Jones should have plenty of room for success this week with a top-tier offensive line against this struggling Lions run defense.

Packers Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Lions defense.

The Packers passing offense has been on a bit of a slide to close out the season. Aaron Rodgers failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time last week, and he has failed to throw for more than 243 yards in around two months. Beyond Davante Adams, the Packers passing offense has lacked a consistent contributor. Geronimo Allison hasn’t finished with more than 20 yards since Week 9, and Allen Lazard has been terribly inconsistent, especially last week as he had a couple of ugly dropped passes. Jimmy Graham has also been a non-factor at tight end. The offense runs through Adams, who has seen double-digit targets in all but one game since returning from injury in Week 9. He is coming off back-to-back 100+ yard games with 20 receptions over those past two weeks. Aaron Jones has also made some contributions from the backfield, and his role in the passing game could be increased this week if Jamaal Williams is unable to suit up after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 16. With the Packers playing for home-field advantage, they certainly could push Williams out there--so keep an eye on his status.

The Lions passing defense 32nd in the league with an average of 282.6 passing yards per game while having forced a league-low six interceptions. This team gave up 338 passing yards and three touchdowns to Mitchell Trubisky back in Week 13 in addition to allowing over 440 passing yards to both Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott within the past two months. This group has failed at almost every level on defense, starting with poor coverage from their secondary. Darius Slay is a good cornerback, but he has taken a step back this season. He will offer a plus matchup to Davante Adams this week, who he missed out on back in Week 6 with Adams injured. The front seven for Detroit has also disappointed with just 27 sacks--tied for fourth-fewest in the league. They have sacked the quarterback just four times over the past four weeks and should have a tough time against a strong pass-protecting Packers offensive line.

Lions Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Lions welcomed starting running back Kerryon Johnson back on to the field last week after he had missed the past eight weeks with a knee injury. While Johnson did not start last week, he did lead the backfield with 10 carries for 42 yards and looked healthy in the process. Bo Scarbrough got the start and saw eight carries for just 34 yards as he continues to underwhelm in this backfield. With Johnson still getting back into game shape, it would be likely to see a similar workload split for this week’s game against Green Bay. The Lions have no need to rush Johnson back into a full workload and risk re-injury, as they are playing for absolutely nothing this week. In addition, the Lions offensive line has been banged up and provided shaky run blocking in last week’s game. Given the uninspiring play from this offensive line, the ineffectiveness of Bo Scarbrough, and the limitations on Kerryon Johnson, this rushing offense looks to be challenged yet again in Week 17.

The Packers defense has been susceptible to the run this season, giving up the 10th-most rushing yards per game (116.7) and an above-average 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. They have seen the luxury of some terrible rushing offenses in recent weeks though, as they limited a banged-up Lions backfield to just 55 rushing yards last week and held the Bears running backs to just 67 rushing yards the week prior. The Lions backfield is certainly not one to be afraid of, but having Kerryon Johnson back will help. However, a healthy Johnson managed just 34 yards on 13 carries in his last game against the Packers in Week 6. Nose tackle Kenny Clark is a stalwart in the center of this run defense, but his help on the interior has been relatively limited for most of the season while Packers linebackers are just mediocre in run defense. The Lions offensive line should not pose much of a challenge for this Packers front though, which should keep the outlook for Johnson pretty grim headed into this matchup.

Lions Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Packers defense.

David Blough has thoroughly unimpressed during his time under center for the Lions, failing to exceed a 60 percent completion rate in any of his four starts while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns (5 to 4). Kenny Golladay has somehow remained fantasy-relevant over this four-game span as he has scored three times with Blough under center, but he has failed to exceed four receptions in two of those games and had a disappointing three-catch outing against Tampa Bay in Week 15 that reminds everyone of the floor he could present. Speaking of floors, safety blanket option Danny Amendola flashed his last week with a two-catch performance for just 21 yards. Amendola saw just three targets last week, just one week removed from a 13-target game in which he caught eight balls for 102 yards in Week 15. The Packers held Amendola to just one catch in their last meeting, whereas Golladay put up 121 yards from five catches. With Blough under center, however, you can throw out any historical performance as this passing offense should remain in the dumps.

The Packers defense has rightfully taken some heat this season, but their passing defense has played relatively well down the stretch and should be in a great spot for success this week. On the season, quarterbacks are scoring the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game against Green Bay. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns just once since Week 8 and have nabbed eight interceptions to just seven touchdowns allowed in those past seven games. Cornerbacks have been the weaker position for the Packers, but these guys have covered receivers relatively well outside of their poor performance against Chicago in Week 15. Stefon Diggs was the only receiver to do anything last week for the Vikings, and he only managed three receptions. Expect for the matchup between Kenny Golladay and Jaire Alexander to be close, but the other two Packers cornerbacks should have the advantage in their matchups. In the trenches, the Packers have notched 12 sacks in their last three games while this Lions offensive line gets a C- grade in pass protection and ranks near the bottom of the list according to Matt Bitonti of Footballguys. This looks to be a mismatch almost all the way around as the Lions offense should have a tough time moving the ball through the air this week.

Lions vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.2)27 (+3.2)26 (+3.0)27 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.4)25 (+3.3)25 (+2.9)25 (+3.5)
13Mitchell Trubisky6529383383144028.328.324.927.9
14Kirk Cousins732430242101-1016.016.013.613.6
15Jameis Winston7128424584124038.338.333.736.7
16Drew Lock71253319210410014.614.612.712.7

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $6900)

14vs WAS62182819510516015.415.411.412.4
15vs CHI59163320310323016.516.514.414.4
16@ MIN772640216013-309.
17PROJ-Dodds22332511.60.53140.120.520.520.5 (H=45)20.5 (H=54)
17PROJ-Tremblay22352461.60.83130.119.819.819.8 (H=42)19.8 (H=51)
17PROJ-Bloom20262211.90.52100.220.320.320.3 (H=44)20.3 (H=53)

Lions vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.0)29 (+4.9)30 (+4.7)29 (+5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.0)22 (+0.9)22 (+1.1)22 (+1.0)
13David Montgomery40167502212114.716.715.716.7
13Tarik Cohen36390442603.
14Dalvin Cook34186212213013.515.514.515.5
14Alexander Mattison2714460221806.
15Ronald Jones3411230312604.
15Peyton Barber2110170222304.
16Phillip Lindsay41191091329017.819.818.822.8
16Royce Freeman28928122909.711.710.711.7

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $8200)

14vs WAS3616134176.058025.
15vs CHI351351200.00017.
16@ MIN5223154232.060283027.032.0
17PROJ-Dodds17740.83.0250.115.318.316.8 (H=33)18.3 (H=37)
17PROJ-Tremblay166713.7320.217.120.819.0 (H=41)20.8 (H=46)
17PROJ-Bloom20900. (H=31)17.2 (H=33)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $5500)

14vs WAS26724010.0002.
15vs CHI24826011.0703.
16@ MIN21633022.01905.
17PROJ-Dodds5210.21.2804.15.34.7 (H=5)5.3 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay6260.21.6120. (H=9)7.2 (H=11)
17PROJ-Bloom4140.11.040.1343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=4)

Dan Vitale (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs WAS1200010.000000.00.0
15vs CHI500000.000000.00.0
16@ MIN800010.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0000.7600.61.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)

Lions vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.1)29 (+5.8)27 (+5.0)29 (+6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+10.9)30 (+15.0)30 (+12.9)31 (+16.1)
13Allen Robinson6012886100014.622.618.622.6
13Anthony Miller56139140000014.023.018.526.0
14Stefon Diggs54969200009.
14Olabisi Johnson5211910006.
15Breshad Perriman6765113313029.634.632.137.6
15Chris Godwin4675121000012.117.114.620.1
16DaeSean Hamilton416665100012.518.515.518.5
16Tim Patrick47654800004.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $8000)

14vs WAS5264.04100004.
15vs CHI55137.0103100016.323.319.826.3
16@ MIN621613.0116000011.624.616.126.6
17PROJ-Dodds6.6870.500011.718.315.0 (H=25)18.3 (H=38)
17PROJ-Tremblay6.8860.500011.618.415.0 (H=25)18.4 (H=38)
17PROJ-Bloom7.0960.700013.820.817.3 (H=33)20.8 (H=47)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

14vs WAS3432.01900001.
15vs CHI4632.01400001.
16@ MIN5895.04500004.
17PROJ-Dodds2.7410.20005.386.7 (H=9)8.0 (H=18)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.4320.20204.675.8 (H=7)7.0 (H=14)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0610.50009.113.111.1 (H=23)13.1 (H=43)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3700)

14vs WAS3611.01100001.
15vs CHI3242.01900001.
16@ MIN3320.000000002.02.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.8200.10002.64.43.5 (H=3)4.4 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.10002.443.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs WAS1000.000000000.00.0
15vs CHI710.000000000.00.0
16@ MIN1111.0600000.
17PROJ-Dodds0.8130.10001.92.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.7110.10001.72.42.1 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

14vs WAS700.000000000.00.0
15vs CHI1111.04900004.
16@ MIN2810.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.81300001.32.11.7 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.3500000.50.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Lions vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.2)14 (-0.4)13 (-0.3)14 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.2)9 (-1.7)9 (-1.9)9 (-1.9)
13Jesper Horsted7111817.
14Irv Smith51432102.
15O.J. Howard66844604.
16Jeff Heuerman33221301.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3300)

14vs WAS3253.04904.
15vs CHI2541.000010.51.0
16@ MIN4111.01601.
17PROJ-Dodds2.1250. (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.9220. (H=5)5.3 (H=10)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=10)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs WAS2011.01217.
15vs CHI921.0500.
16@ MIN2300.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs WAS3911.0500.
15vs CHI3211.0600.
16@ MIN4111.0200.
17PROJ-Dodds0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=0)2.1 (H=2)

Lions vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.7)21T (+0.7)19T (+0.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.9)21 (+0.9)19 (+0.8) (+0.0)
13Eddy Pineiro1133666.06.0
14Dan Bailey22228810.010.0
15Matt Gay1255889.09.0
16Brandon McManus2233999.09.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs WAS2222888.08.0
15vs CHI0033333.03.0
16@ MIN33019910.010.0

Lions vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.7)22T (+0.7)22 (+0.8)22 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.8)23 (+1.8)26T (+2.9)26T (+2.9)
13Chicago Bears2036421000445.05.0
14Minnesota Vikings7231520009913.013.0
15Tampa Bay Buccaneers1729522101141415.015.0
16Denver Broncos1719140000445.05.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs WAS15.0026241000667.07.0
15vs CHI13.00415321009913.013.0
16@ MIN10.00139510007711.011.0
17PROJ-Dodds18.403512.310.800.611.211.211.2 (H=27)11.2 (H=43)
17PROJ-Tremblay15.253602. (H=35)13.0 (H=56)

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.1)5 (-3.2)4 (-3.4)5 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-7.0)2 (-7.0)2 (-6.5)2 (-6.7)
13Daniel Jones6720372401356013.613.611.211.2
14Dwayne Haskins651627170111-1011.411.49.79.7
15Mitchell Trubisky84295333412429021.621.618.321.3
16Kirk Cousins541631122110009.

David Blough (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4700)

14@ MIN7124402051200012.312.310.210.2
15vs TB64244326002519012.912.910.310.3
16@ DEN501224117100009.
17PROJ-Dodds203422011.2280. (H=33)15.2 (H=47)
17PROJ-Tremblay223725911.23120.117.517.517.5 (H=43)17.5 (H=60)
17PROJ-Bloom132512411.52509.29.29.2 (H=14)9.2 (H=19)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.2)25 (+2.8)25 (+2.6)24 (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.5)13 (-3.1)11 (-3.7)13 (-3.7)
13Saquon Barkley64198307332011.514.513.014.5
13Javorius Allen314000000.
14Adrian Peterson2820761000013.613.613.613.6
14Chris Thompson26000874304.311.37.811.3
15Tarik Cohen5582801075708.515.512.015.5
15David Montgomery3614390111004.
16Ameer Abdullah324270763105.811.88.811.8
16Mike Boone181128011503.

Kerryon Johnson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4500)

16@ DEN161042011.0104.
17PROJ-Dodds11440.21.81507.18.98.0 (H=16)8.9 (H=19)
17PROJ-Tremblay10390.21.81506.68.47.5 (H=14)8.4 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom10360. (H=13)7.7 (H=15)

Bo Scarbrough (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

14@ MIN341965031.050787.58.0
15vs TB000000.000000.00.0
16@ DEN14834000.0003.
17PROJ-Dodds7300.10.0003.63.63.6 (H=3)3.6 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay8330.10.6504.454.7 (H=5)5.0 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom7250.10.0003.13.13.1 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)

Ty Johnson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ MIN2123011.070121.52.0
15vs TB2923054.0170262.05.0
16@ DEN12320000.000222.02.0
17PROJ-Dodds41200.7501.72.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay31201.3902.13.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom2700.0000.70.70.7 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)

J.D. McKissic (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ MIN1612044.01601.
15vs TB1212032.0700.
16@ DEN700000.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1601.81101.73.52.6 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
17PROJ-Tremblay1401.3901.32.62.0 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.7)8 (-3.7)10 (-2.8)10 (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.0)12 (-1.9)13 (-1.5)14 (-1.5)
13Sterling Shepard577340100010.013.011.513.0
13Darius Slayton63964400004.410.47.410.4
14Terry McLaurin617457100011.715.713.715.7
14Steven Sims0744000004.
15Anthony Miller79159118100017.826.822.329.8
15Allen Robinson80147125000012.519.516.022.5
16Stefon Diggs465357100011.714.713.214.7
16Olabisi Johnson2421600000.

Kenny Golladay (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6300)

14@ MIN6786.058100011.817.814.817.8
15vs TB6073.04400004.
16@ DEN48126.066100012.618.615.618.6
17PROJ-Dodds5.0780.400010.215.212.7 (H=22)15.2 (H=35)
17PROJ-Tremblay5.7910.400011.517.214.4 (H=27)17.2 (H=43)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0610.50009.114.111.6 (H=18)14.1 (H=31)

Danny Amendola (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4500)

14@ MIN5785.03400003.
15vs TB55138.0102000010.
16@ DEN4132.02100002.
17PROJ-Dodds5.0540.20006.611.69.2 (H=16)11.7 (H=31)
17PROJ-Tremblay5.3620.20007.412.710.1 (H=19)12.8 (H=36)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0340.30005.29.27.3 (H=10)9.3 (H=21)

Chris Lacy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ MIN300.000000000.00.0
15vs TB4221.04800004.
16@ DEN2410.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.5170.10002.33.83.1 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.91200001.22.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.5)21T (+0.6)20 (+0.3)22 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.1)1 (-8.4)1 (-7.7)1 (-8.8)
13Kaden Smith61867007.
14Hale Hentges2100000.
15Jesper Horsted4131900.91.9-0.60.9
16Kyle Rudolph3621700.

Logan Thomas (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

14@ MIN4042.02102.
15vs TB4240.000000.00.0
16@ DEN3132.01701.
17PROJ-Dodds1.9180. (H=3)4.3 (H=9)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.4250. (H=5)5.5 (H=14)
17PROJ-Bloom2.01501.53.52.5 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)

Jesse James (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ MIN3821.02302.
15vs TB3853.03103.
16@ DEN2911.01201.
17PROJ-Dodds1.8180. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.7170.12.343.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Isaac Nauta (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ MIN611.0300.
15vs TB1221.0100121.52.0
16@ DEN700.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.6700.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-0.8)4T (-0.8)8T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4T (-1.6)4T (-1.6)7T (-1.7) (+0.0)
13Aldrick Rosas2211778.08.0
14Dustin Hopkins1101335.05.0
15Eddy Pineiro2211777.07.0
16Dan Bailey1111444.04.0

Matt Prater (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14@ MIN0111111.01.0
15vs TB1122556.06.0
16@ DEN1122555.05.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.7)8T (-2.7)6 (-2.9)6 (-2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.0)8T (-2.0)6T (-2.6)6T (-2.6)
13New York Giants313220000000-1.0-1.0
14Washington Redskins2034140100667.07.0
15Chicago Bears2129210000111.01.0
16Minnesota Vikings2338331200999.09.0

Detroit Lions (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $2000)

14@ MIN20.0035410000112.02.0
15vs TB38.0049521000443.03.0
16@ DEN27.0034800001006.06.0
17PROJ-Dodds24.903522.10.80.600. (H=21)7.4 (H=32)
17PROJ-Tremblay27.753542.20.80.500.3666.0 (H=14)6.0 (H=22)