Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 23, Jaguars 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense22.7 (-0.0) (16)133 (+20) (4)198 (-37) (28)
Jaguars Defense25.1 (+2.4) (22)140 (+27) (28)242 (+6) (20)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense17.5 (-5.3) (29)109 (-2) (16)232 (-3) (16)
Colts Defense22.3 (-0.4) (15)100 (-12) (8)246 (+10) (22)

Colts Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

One week removed from getting embarrassed by the Saints, the Colts offense bounced back in a big way by putting up 38 points on the heels of a strong ground game against the Panthers. The Colts will look to close out the season with a top-5 rushing offense, currently ranked fourth with an average of 133.2 rushing yards per game. Marlon Mack has put together a nice season with just over 1,000 rushing yards despite missing a couple of weeks due to injury. He has been the workhorse running back of this offense and should continue that role into this week against a reeling Jaguars defense. Mack did struggle in his first two games returning from injury, but he had a productive outing last week with 16 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown. Jordan Wilkins also worked in for nine carries last week--his highest volume of the season in a game with Mack starting. His workload was primarily attributed to resting Mack once the game was out of hand, but Wilkins still showed he can be a productive contributor in this Mack-led backfield. Even Nyhiem Hines got in on the fun with a rushing touchdown last week, but still expect for Mack to lead the charge behind one of the league’s top offensive lines in this week’s juicy matchup. However, this offensive line may be without starting All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson this week, as he was sidelined with a concussion and remains at risk of missing this game. The loss of Nelson would be a huge blow to this otherwise elite offensive line and should make it tougher on Mack in Week 17.

The Jaguars defense has been flat out terrible against the run over the back half of this season, allowing a league-leading average of 152 rushing yards and 33.2 fantasy points (non-PPR) per game to opposing running backs since Week 9. They have allowed at least 115 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns to running backs in five of their last seven games and now square off against a Colts offense that hung 264 rushing yards on them back in Week 11. That last meeting was the game in which Marlon Mack suffered a hand injury in the third quarter, after which Jonathan Williams took charge and still racked up over 100 yards of his own against this group. The Jaguars defensive line lacks the depth to reliably compete with most offensive lines, and this week they face one of the league’s top units in Indianapolis. The second level consists of a rag-tag group of backup linebackers trying their best to keep things together after the Jaguars lost five linebackers to injury over the course of this season. All in all, this should be a great spot for Marlon Mack to repeat what he did the last time these teams met, including upside for triple-digit yards (minus the hand injury).

Colts Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Jacoby Brissett had another uneventful start last week at the helm of what has been a very disappointing Colts passing offense ranked 28th in the league with just 197.7 yards per game. After opening the season on fire, Brissett has finished with zero passing touchdowns in six of his last nine full games while averaging just 201 passing yards per game over that span. While he adds some upside with his legs, Brissett and his below-average 61.6 completion rate could have this offense looking for another option under center in 2020. T.Y. Hilton led the Colts in both receptions and receiving yards last week and played closer to a full complement of snaps in his second game back from the calf injury. Hilton did look more explosive last week, but his upside will be tied to that of Brissett. Zach Pascal faded back into obscurity last week while Jack Doyle has failed to capitalize on the absence of Eric Ebron, snaring just two catches in each of his last three games for a total of 65 receiving yards over that span.

The entire Jaguars team has been trending in the wrong direction as the season comes to a close, and this passing defense is no exception. Coming off allowing 384 passing yards to Matt Ryan last week, there is little hope of a bounceback despite facing a much less dangerous Colts passing offense that they shut down back in Week 11. Jacksonville’s secondary has played terribly as of late, and after A.J. Bouye played a big part in allowing 166 yards to Julio Jones last week, the outlook for T.Y. Hilton is certainly trending upwards. Opposing tight ends have also had a field day in the middle of the field, especially when mismatched against one of these Jaguars linebackers. Over the past four weeks, a tight end has either exceeded 60 yards or scored a touchdown in each game. Jack Doyle will look for a better showing after being shut out from the stat sheet during their last matchup. The Jaguars have also given up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (50) to opposing running backs this season and considering Jacksonville now has a couple of backup linebackers out there, the outlook for Nyhiem Hines has to be bumped up.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Jaguars rushing offense has been rather lackluster for most of this season as they rank around the middle of the league with 109.4 rushing yards per game but have scored only three rushing touchdowns all season--by far the lowest in the league. Lead running back Leonard Fournette will look to cap off the first 16-game season of his career this week as he meets a Colts defense that held him to just 23 yards on eight attempts back in Week 11. Fournette has seen a steady workload this season and has rushed exactly 15 times in each of his last three games. His per-game production, however, has been hit or miss as he has averaged 3.6 or fewer yards per carry in seven games with 50 or fewer rushing yards in five of his last seven games over the back half of this season. Despite seeing consistently heavy workloads, Fournette has scored just three times and exceeded 80 rushing yards only once since Week 7. The offensive line has played reasonably well this season, but this entire offense has simply been on the struggle bus over the past month and looks nowhere near close to figuring it out as they close out the season this week.

Indianapolis looks to finish this season with an above-average run defense that has held opponents to an average of right at 100 rushing yards per game--tied for 10th-fewest in the league. With the exception of a big game from Derrick Henry in Week 13, the Colts have now allowed a lead running back into the end zone or above 75 rushing yards since Week 8. They have looked particularly impressive against the run over the past two weeks, holding Christian McCaffrey to 54 rushing yards last week and Alvin Kamara to 66 rushing yards the week prior. The last time out against Jacksonville, this Colts defense shut down Leonard Fournette to the tune of just 23 rushing yards as he averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The defensive line for the Colts has been a solid unit all season, but interior lineman Denico Autry has been dealing with a concussion suffered in Week 15 and remains questionable coming into this week. The continued absence of Autry would mean more snaps for Trevon Coley, who is a steep downgrade at the position. Linebackers Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke can help make up for an absence of Autry though, as they have been top-notch run defenders and should help the Colts defense win in this matchup.

Jaguars Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Gardner Minshew has been unremarkable since taking back control of this stagnant Jaguars offense after Nick Foles was benched. In his past three starts, Minshew is completing only 55.7 percent of his passes for an average of 181 passing yards per game. While he has not turned the ball over, hs simply isn’t making any plays for an offense that has mightily struggled in recent weeks. Minshew did not start against the Colts back in Week 11, but D.J. Chark did as he lit them up with eight catches for 104 yards and two touchdowns. Chark, however, looked limited last week coming off missing a game due to an ankle injury. While he isn’t in danger of missing this week, it could be wise to keep an eye on the practice reports for Chark. Chris Conley has been playing well as of late with three touchdowns in his past two games, but he has seen limited volume all season and remains somewhat of a flyer at the position. Conley still ranks above Dede Westbrook in this offense though, as Westbrook has finished with fewer targets than Conley in back-to-back weeks and has failed to exceed 25 receiving yards in three straight games.

The Colts secondary caught a break last week with rookie quarterback Will Grier struggling against them, but that by no means should instill confidence in what has been a below-average passing defense that has struggled throughout the second half of the season. Wide receivers had scored 11 times in the five previous games leading into last week, and quarterbacks are scoring the fourth-most fantasy points per game since Week 11 when facing the Colts. Two of their three starting cornerbacks this week will be rookies, and Rock Ya-Sin, in particular, should offer an advantageous matchup to D.J. Chark--who racked up 104 yards and two touchdowns in his last matchup with this defense. The Colts linebackers have done a decent job defending pass-catching running backs, but they have also given up some monster games to the position--such as the 15 catches for 119 yards from Christian McCaffrey last week, or 13 catches for 73 yards from Jaylen Samuels in Week 9. Leonard Fournette hauled in seven for 34 in their last meeting, and based on his increased usage through the air, he could be relied upon heavily this week as well.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.1)21 (+1.1)21 (+1.2)20 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.5)17 (+0.5)21 (+1.3)
13Jameis Winston76213326800620015.415.410.711.7
14Philip Rivers4316223143010027.727.724.627.6
15Derek Carr75223626710112018.618.615.915.9
16Matt Ryan7532453841246021.821.818.021.0

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5800)

14@ TB63193625120426023.223.222.622.6
15@ NO56183416500170997.37.3
16vs CAR61142711900337115.916.915.215.7
17PROJ-Dodds19322161.40.74170.218.618.618.6 (H=43)18.6 (H=54)
17PROJ-Tremblay21342271.50.84170.219.519.519.5 (H=47)19.5 (H=59)
17PROJ-Bloom15241401.20.53200.315.115.115.1 (H=30)15.1 (H=37)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.2)32 (+6.3)31 (+6.3)31 (+7.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.6)32 (+14.8)31 (+14.4)32 (+16.2)
13Peyton Barber3017442000016.416.418.418.4
13Dare Ogunbowale23100221201.
14Austin Ekeler318101054112127.331.329.337.3
14Melvin Gordon29125515529014.419.416.919.4
15Josh Jacobs43248903220010.912.911.912.9
15Jalen Richard221110322503.
16Devonta Freeman581353111974124.733.729.233.7
16Brian Hill14766000006.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6900)

14@ TB261338100.0009.
15@ NO251119000.0001.
16vs CAR311695122.06016.
17PROJ-Dodds18840.50.75011.912.612.2 (H=20)12.6 (H=23)
17PROJ-Tremblay16760.40.75010.511.210.9 (H=17)11.2 (H=19)
17PROJ-Bloom18880.70.000131313.0 (H=23)13.0 (H=24)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4100)

14@ TB911000.0000.
15@ NO24310131.0707.
16vs CAR22984100.00014.414.414.414.4
17PROJ-Dodds5230.20.65044.64.3 (H=4)4.6 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay5260.21.0804.65.65.1 (H=6)5.6 (H=9)
17PROJ-Bloom7330.20.0004.54.54.5 (H=5)4.5 (H=6)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

14@ TB3541054.02402.
15@ NO9210022.0201.
16vs CAR1114011.0200.61.613.113.6
17PROJ-Dodds3110.12.71903.66.35.0 (H=5)6.4 (H=11)
17PROJ-Tremblay3130.12.821046.85.5 (H=6)6.9 (H=13)
17PROJ-Bloom270. (H=3)4.6 (H=6)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.5)13 (-2.2)12 (-1.9)13 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.1)6 (-5.0)7 (-4.1)6 (-5.4)
13Breshad Perriman44658700008.713.711.213.7
13Mike Evans631145300005.
14Mike Williams453263100012.314.313.314.3
14Keenan Allen42658300008.313.310.813.3
15Tyrell Williams723245100010.512.511.512.5
15Keelan Doss35211700001.
16Julio Jones571510166000016.626.621.629.6
16Russell Gage38654902705.610.68.110.6

T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $6000)

14@ TB000.000000000.00.0
15@ NO2994.02500002.
16vs CAR3843.02600002.
17PROJ-Dodds4.4510.30006.911.39.1 (H=14)11.3 (H=22)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.8430.30006.19.98.0 (H=11)9.9 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0520.50008.213.210.7 (H=18)13.2 (H=29)

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4800)

14@ TB6395.074100013.418.417.920.4
15@ NO4564.04400004.
16vs CAR5031.0600000.
17PROJ-Dodds2.8400.20005.286.6 (H=9)8.0 (H=15)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.5360.20004.87.36.1 (H=7)7.3 (H=13)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0210.20003.35.34.3 (H=4)5.3 (H=7)

Marcus Johnson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3500)

14@ TB5673.0105100016.519.518.022.5
15@ NO4542.03700003.
16vs CAR4641.0200000.
17PROJ-Dodds1.9280.200045.95.0 (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.1310.20004.36.45.4 (H=6)6.4 (H=14)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Dontrelle Inman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

15@ NO3132.02500002.
16vs CAR821.01800001.
17PROJ-Dodds1.2140.100023.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.5170.10002.33.83.1 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.4)15 (-0.2)19 (+0.2)16 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.9)26 (+4.1)25 (+3.6)26 (+4.7)
13O.J. Howard63656106.111.18.611.1
14Hunter Henry38423919.911.910.911.9
15Darren Waller66108122012.
16Austin Hooper52978208.215.211.715.2

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4100)

14@ TB4962.02702.
15@ NO4652.02102.
16vs CAR6142.01701.
17PROJ-Dodds3.9420.46.610.58.6 (H=13)10.5 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.7490.47.3129.7 (H=17)12.0 (H=36)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0200. (H=4)5.2 (H=8)

Mo Alie-Cox (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

14@ TB1611.0800.
15@ NO1400.000000.00.0
16vs CAR3511.02102.
17PROJ-Dodds1.1100. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (+0.1)17T (+0.1)11T (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+1.4)25T (+1.4)19T (+0.8) (+0.0)
13Matt Gay2222888.08.0
14Mike Badgley11669910.010.0
15Daniel Carlson3411101010.010.0
16Younghoe Koo1233666.06.0

Chase McLaughlin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.1)25 (+1.1)25 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.5)25 (+2.5)29T (+3.7)29T (+3.7)
13Tampa Bay Buccaneers1124252201252523.023.0
14Los Angeles Chargers1025220000226.06.0
15Oakland Raiders2026220000223.03.0
16Atlanta Falcons1228830100559.09.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

14@ TB38.0054213101151511.011.0
15@ NO34.004240000000-1.0-1.0
16vs CAR6.0028653002111130.030.0
17PROJ-Dodds19.603512.610.700. (H=20)9.6 (H=31)
17PROJ-Tremblay19.753722.40.90.700. (H=19)9.2 (H=29)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.0)20 (+1.1)19 (+1.0)21 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+7.1)31 (+7.6)31 (+6.5)31 (+7.6)
13Ryan Tannehill6017221822045017.617.613.814.8
14Jameis Winston7233454564365142.342.337.740.7
15Drew Brees6029303074000031.431.428.331.3
16Will Grier7027442240341709.

Gardner Minshew (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5300)

14vs LAC66243716210631015.215.213.613.6
15@ OAK57172920120527020.820.818.718.7
16@ ATL62133118110736016.716.714.814.8
17PROJ-Dodds22352381.40.74230.119.719.719.7 (H=52)19.7 (H=65)
17PROJ-Tremblay23372661.50.94220. (H=59)21.2 (H=74)
17PROJ-Bloom1729168116300.1151515.0 (H=32)15.0 (H=41)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.4)10 (-1.9)8 (-2.9)10 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.6)24 (+3.3)20 (+0.6)24 (+3.8)
13Derrick Henry452614913317022.625.622.127.6
13Dion Lewis1100011900.
14Ronald Jones2711360542305.
14Peyton Barber3011340221905.
15Alvin Kamara4214660552308.913.911.413.9
15Latavius Murray229290322004.
16Christian McCaffrey63135401515119017.332.324.835.3
16Reggie Bonnafon8212000001.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $7000)

14vs LAC511550063.01306.
15@ OAK551542075.03107.312.39.812.3
16@ ATL581571063.034010.513.512.013.5
17PROJ-Dodds19760.45.1360.114.219.316.8 (H=35)19.3 (H=48)
17PROJ-Tremblay18760.45.5400.114.620.117.4 (H=38)20.1 (H=51)
17PROJ-Bloom18750.34.0300.112.916.914.9 (H=29)16.9 (H=38)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4400)

14vs LAC1527020.0000.
15@ OAK211000.0000.
16@ ATL412000.0000.
17PROJ-Dodds1500.6400.91.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay1500.5400.91.41.2 (H=0)1.4 (H=0)
17PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.9)22 (+2.0)22 (+2.0)22 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.0)26 (+5.1)27 (+5.0)26 (+4.7)
13Kalif Raymond171140100010.011.010.511.0
13Adam Humphries23211310007.
14Breshad Perriman655370100013.016.014.516.0
14Mike Evans182161100012.113.112.613.1
15Michael Thomas481212128100018.830.824.833.8
15TreQuan Smith45112110008.
16Curtis Samuel53521702402.
16Jarius Wright40511900001.

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5800)

14vs LAC58109.07500007.516.512.016.5
15@ OAK000.000000000.00.0
16@ ATL5472.01800001.
17PROJ-Dodds4.5560.50008.613.110.8 (H=20)13.1 (H=29)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.9680.50009.814.712.2 (H=25)14.7 (H=36)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0380.30005.69.67.6 (H=11)9.6 (H=17)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4500)

14vs LAC5731.0700000.
15@ OAK5084.049200016.920.918.920.9
16@ ATL4852.056100011.613.612.613.6
17PROJ-Dodds3.3470.30006.59.88.2 (H=13)9.8 (H=23)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.1470.30006.59.68.1 (H=12)9.6 (H=22)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0390.30005.78.77.2 (H=10)8.7 (H=18)

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4200)

14vs LAC4476.02500002.
15@ OAK5342.01401702.
16@ ATL4342.0500000.
17PROJ-Dodds4.0390.30005.79.77.8 (H=13)9.8 (H=24)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.9430.30006.1108.1 (H=14)10.1 (H=26)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0110.10001.73.72.8 (H=2)3.8 (H=4)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3500)

14vs LAC3431.01200001.
15@ OAK4363.07600007.610.69.110.6
16@ ATL2521.02301602.
17PROJ-Dodds1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.6220.11303.14.73.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.0)20 (+0.6)17 (+0.2)19 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.5)21 (+1.2)20 (+0.9)20 (+1.0)
13Anthony Firkser19432202.
14Cameron Brate24443019.
15Josh Hill4711516.
16Greg Olsen40523303.

Seth DeValve (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

14vs LAC000.000000.00.0
15@ OAK2922.02302.
16@ ATL3963.04504.
17PROJ-Dodds2.0230. (H=6)5.5 (H=14)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.6290. (H=8)6.7 (H=20)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0240.1354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=12)

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs LAC4554.030191311.013.0
15@ OAK2100.000000.00.0
16@ ATL2200.000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.11101.12.21.6 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.6700.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
17PROJ-Bloom1.01201.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.5)21T (+0.5)21 (+0.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.9)21T (+0.9)21 (+0.9) (+0.0)
13Ryan Succop1144777.07.0
14Matt Gay1155889.09.0
15Wil Lutz2244101010.010.0
16Joey Slye2200668.08.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs LAC1111444.04.0
15@ OAK2222889.09.0
16@ ATL2200667.07.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-1.1)8T (-1.1)10 (-0.8)10 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.0)8 (-2.0)17T (-0.1)17T (-0.1)
13Tennessee Titans17391321009920.020.0
14Tampa Bay Buccaneers3530910100332.02.0
15New Orleans Saints720510000115.05.0
16Carolina Panthers383243000033-1.0-1.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2600)

14vs LAC45.005251000011-3.0-3.0
15@ OAK16.0036440000445.05.0
16@ ATL24.0051812000555.05.0
17PROJ-Dodds24.403582. (H=21)8.0 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay23.253592.20.80.600. (H=21)7.9 (H=27)