Matchup Analysis: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Browns 24, Bengals 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense20.8 (-2.0) (22)121 (+8) (11)222 (-13) (23)
Bengals Defense26.5 (+3.7) (25)154 (+41) (32)245 (+9) (21)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense16.4 (-6.4) (32)89 (-23) (28)231 (-4) (17)
Browns Defense24.0 (+1.2) (20)142 (+30) (30)219 (-16) (9)

Browns Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Browns smartly have seemingly reduced Nick Chubbís volume as he only has an average of 15.75 carries per game over his last four games after having six straight 20+ carry games before this recent reduction in volume. As the Browns wind down their disappointing season, it remains to be seen how much Chubb will play in this final game of 2019. The only thing that this rushing offense is playing for is to keep Chubbís rushing lead which as it stands today is 92 yards ahead of the next closest threat in Christian McCaffrey. What Chubb has been able to do in 2019 with a team that has struggled offensively, and that has had offensive line issues on the right side of the line, has been remarkable considering he is averaging 5.1 yards-per-carry and has been the backbone of this Browns team this season. If there is a criticism of Chubb, it has been his inability to finish inside the five-yard line as he is by far the worst running back in the league inside the five-yard line as he has 15 carries for negative 14 yards inside of the five.

Over the second half of the season, the Bengals run defense has been much improved compared to where it was at the beginning of the year. Since Week 9, the Bengals have allowed 4.45 yards-per-carry compared to 4.92 yards-per-carry from weeks 1 through 8. A big reason for this improvement has been the development of Sam Hubbard and the improvement of Andrew Billings as earlier in the season this had been a unit that as long as you ran away from Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, you would have success, but now the defensive line is strong across all four positions. The problem for the Bengals is that their linebacking group remains one of the worst in football as Germaine Pratt, Nick Vigil, and Shawn Williams all struggle at stopping the run and the safeties donít provide much run-stopping support. This is still a weak unit that if you can get past the defensive line there are plenty of yards to be gained, but this is no longer a defense that is in contention for the worst unit in football as it was for quite some time.

Browns Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Baker Mayfield and the Browns passing attack canít seem to get to the offseason fast enough as it has been a season to forget in Cleveland after coming in with high expectations. The problem is that the Browns donít have anything positive that they can build on heading into the offseason as all there is in Cleveland at the moment is turmoil. Odell Beckham has been disappointing but does need 46 yards to reach 1,000 yards which could be something the Browns focus in on as they try to keep the star receiver happy in Cleveland. Jarvis Landry continues to be a bright spot in this offense as he leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in his second year in Cleveland. Outside of these two, however, the Browns have gotten very little from any wide receivers and tight ends which has been a problem for Mayfield that he has not developed how to circle through progressions, but also that the options that he has arenít getting open outside of Beckham or Landry so he dumps it off to Kareem Hunt if those two arenít open. David Njoku appears that he will be cut in the offseason after being inactive for the past two weeks due to running the wrong routes and lack of preparation after coming back from a wrist injury. Rashard Higgins has fallen out of favor after he refused to go into the game against Seattle earlier this season. Overall this is a team that has a lot to improve on for the 2020 season.

The Bengals secondary was shredded last week by Ryan Fitzpatrick allowing 419 yards and 4 touchdowns. Making matters worse is that they lost William Jackson with a shoulder injury and Darqueze Dennard is dealing with a knee injury and is unlikely to play. This will leave the Bengals with B.W. Webb, Darius Phillips, and possibly Tony McRae who was cleared to return as the starting cornerbacks as they were already without Dre Kirkpatrick who was lost earlier this season. This is a disastrous situation that the Browns should have a significant talent advantage over this secondary as B.W. Webb has been a bottom-tier cornerback throughout his career, and Phillips/McRae both have very little experience in their career.

Bengals Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense continues to keep fighting regardless of not having anything to play for this season. While Mixon struggled last week against the Dolphins as he had just 50 yards, he did have 21 carries which is now three straight games with 21 carries or more for the third-year running back. The offensive line, particularly at the guard position in Billy Price and Michael Jordan, remains an issue which has led to some of the inconsistency. The good news is that the Bengals will get back John Miller at right guard which will push Billy Price back to the bench as Price was a big reason the Bengals struggled last week against the run.

The Browns rushing defense continues to be a mess. On the year, the Browns are allowing 4.9 yards-per-carry, and last week they allowed 130 yards to Baltimore which marks the third straight game in which they have allowed 130 yards or more rushing. The Browns have had significant change on their defense this season, whether it being players kicked off the team in safety Jermaine Whitehead, injury to linebacker Christian Kirksey, safety Morgan Burnett, and defensive end Olivier Vernon, and suspension to Myles Garrett this is a defense that is running out a bunch of guys who either lack experience or talent. The Browns may also be without Sheldon Richardson this week who has been the lone bright spot on the defensive line. At the linebacker position, Joe Schobert has made plays in the passing game but is a poor run defender. Alongside Schobert are two rookies who have struggled in Sione Takitaki and Mack Wilson. This should be a big opportunity for the Bengals to have a big game similar to the one that Mixon had three weeks ago when he ran for 146 yards and a touchdown.

Bengals Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Say what you want about Andy Dalton and his limitations, but he is a competitor. Last week Dalton brought the Bengals back from down 23 points to force overtime against the Dolphins in a game in which they fell just short. Dalton had his best game of the season throwing for 396 yards and 4 touchdowns as Tyler Boyd saw 15 targets and John Ross saw 13 targets as the Bengals remain limited with wide receiving options. This is a unit that is quite possibly Daltonís last game as the Bengals quarterback is going to look to end up at home with a win. Look for the offense to once again go through Boyd with Ross and the tight ends being secondary options.

The Browns secondary is one of only two teams this year to not allow a 300-yard passer and have allowed just three quarterbacks on the year to throw for more than 250 yards and just one over 275 yards. While on paper, this seems like this is a lock-down unit, but the reality is that it is a good unit that has benefitted from some other factors. This is a unit that has benefitted from the run defense being borderline terrible and the offense not being able to put up enough points or getting out to leads that force opponents to throw against them. The Browns are led by Denzel Ward who has been great this season as in back to back weeks he has shut down Marquise Brown and Christian Kirk. Opposite of Ward is rookie Greedy Williams who has been up and down for most of the year that if there is an opportunity for a big play it would be against Williams. What will be interesting is how the Browns defend the Bengals in this one as Ward in their first matchup saw a lot of John Ross based on Ward being one of the fastest cornerbacks in the NFL which could set up well for Tyler Boyd who had 75-yards in their first game.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.4)24 (+2.4)11T (+3.0)24 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.2)12 (-1.3)11 (-1.0)13 (-1.2)
13Sam Darnold7428482390029012.912.910.510.5
14Baker Mayfield55112419202213114.914.913.013.0
15Tom Brady651529128202-2014.214.212.912.9
16Ryan Fitzpatrick9031524194159036.936.932.735.7

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5700)

14vs CIN55112419202213114.914.913.013.0
15@ ARI70304324721211020.520.518.018.0
16vs BAL60203319221240171715.115.1
17PROJ-Dodds21332411.61270.118.818.818.8 (H=43)18.8 (H=56)
17PROJ-Tremblay22352531.51.2290.118.918.918.9 (H=43)18.9 (H=57)
17PROJ-Bloom19292021.50.8260.116.516.516.5 (H=34)16.5 (H=45)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.8)27 (+3.2)27 (+3.3)26 (+3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.5)21 (+0.6)23 (+1.2)20 (+0.8)
13LeVeon Bell6310320543506.710.78.710.7
13Bilal Powell11414022401.
14Kareem Hunt3592813240012.814.813.814.8
14Nick Chubb391510601111011.712.712.215.7
15James White2531304349112.215.213.715.2
15Rex Burkhead206531226011.913.912.913.9
16Myles Gaskin3416551313011.812.812.312.8
16Patrick Laird49817011101.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7500)

14vs CIN3915106011.011011.712.712.215.7
15@ ARI3517127133.021020.823.822.326.8
16vs BAL391545010.0004.
17PROJ-Dodds18900.51.613013.314.914.1 (H=24)14.9 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay18890.51.612013.114.713.9 (H=24)14.7 (H=28)
17PROJ-Bloom19840. (H=22)13.7 (H=24)

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5200)

14vs CIN35928132.040012.814.813.814.8
15@ ARI43414098.06207.615.611.615.6
16vs BAL3430044.03303.
17PROJ-Dodds6250.24.2340.17.711.99.8 (H=17)11.9 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay6250.24.2320.17.511.79.6 (H=16)11.7 (H=27)
17PROJ-Bloom5210.14.0330. (H=15)11.2 (H=25)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.1)11 (-2.7)14 (-1.7)11 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.7)11 (-2.9)10 (-2.8)11 (-2.5)
13Robby Anderson65107101000010.117.113.620.1
13Vyncint Smith20322300002.
14Jarvis Landry50747600007.611.69.611.6
14Odell Beckham49523900003.
15NKeal Harry384215122209.711.710.711.7
15Mohamed Sanu56821300001.
16DeVante Parker75155111100017.122.119.625.1
16Albert Wilson66777901908.815.812.315.8

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5900)

14vs CIN5074.07600007.611.69.611.6
15@ ARI6885.02300002.
16vs BAL5087.07400007.414.410.914.4
17PROJ-Dodds5.8770.500010.716.513.6 (H=27)16.5 (H=43)
17PROJ-Tremblay6.2840.500011.417.614.5 (H=30)17.6 (H=48)
17PROJ-Bloom6.0670.40009.115.112.1 (H=22)15.1 (H=37)

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5700)

14vs CIN4952.03900003.
15@ ARI68138.06600006.614.610.614.6
16vs BAL5464.044100010.414.412.414.4
17PROJ-Dodds4.7650.40008.913.611.3 (H=20)13.6 (H=32)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.7640.30008.212.910.6 (H=18)12.9 (H=29)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0650.50009.514.512.0 (H=22)14.5 (H=36)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs CIN1610.000000000.00.0
15@ ARI2122.03300003.
16vs BAL2130.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.8100.10001.62.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.8100.10001.62.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Khadarel Hodge (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs CIN1310.000000000.00.0
15@ ARI3010.000000000.00.0
16vs BAL1421.0600000.
17PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.680.10001.421.7 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs CIN100.000000000.00.0
15@ ARI000.000000000.00.0
16vs BAL000.000000000.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.580.10001.41.91.7 (H=1)1.9 (H=2)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.2)16 (-0.2)16 (-0.1)15 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.3)13 (-0.3)13T (-0.2)12 (-0.5)
13Ryan Griffin62753003.
14Ricky Seals-Jones11112202.
15Matt LaCosse49332202.
16Mike Gesicki5812682220.

Ricky Seals-Jones (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $2800)

14vs CIN1111.02202.
15@ ARI1943.029214.917.914.416.9
16vs BAL1921.02302.
17PROJ-Dodds1.4190. (H=4)4.5 (H=9)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.5190. (H=4)4.6 (H=10)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=5)5.4 (H=13)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

14vs CIN000.000000.00.0
15@ ARI4221.01301.
16vs BAL3631.0116.
17PROJ-Dodds1.1120. (H=2)2.9 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.2130. (H=2)3.1 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+1.9)25T (+1.9)26T (+1.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.4)25 (+1.4)26T (+1.8) (+0.0)
13Sam Ficken2200667.07.0
14Austin Seibert22339911.011.0
15Nick Folk2244101012.012.0
16Jason Sanders1255888.08.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs CIN22339911.011.0
15@ ARI1233667.07.0
16vs BAL1101334.04.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.9)30 (+2.9)32 (+3.8)32 (+3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.8)26 (+2.8)24 (+2.2)24 (+2.2)
13New York Jets2227710010332.02.0
14Cleveland Browns1945121001101011.011.0
15New England Patriots1331504101161620.020.0
16Miami Dolphins3543040100662.02.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $3600)

14vs CIN19.0045121001101011.011.0
15@ ARI38.004450100022-2.0-2.0
16vs BAL31.0048100100221.01.0
17PROJ-Dodds23.603652.310.700. (H=18)8.4 (H=22)
17PROJ-Tremblay21.003742.51.10.700. (H=22)9.5 (H=27)

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.9)19 (+0.9)20 (+1.1)17 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.7)15 (-0.8)13 (-0.9)14 (-0.8)
13Devlin Hodges6214212121152013.813.811.711.7
14Andy Dalton75223826201311013.213.210.610.6
15Kyler Murray61192521911856019.619.617.417.4
16Lamar Jackson7320312383017103034.234.229.833.8

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5900)

14@ CLE75223826201311013.213.210.610.6
15vs NE661731151142107.
16@ MIA9033563964000035.835.833.837.8
17PROJ-Dodds22372531.61.1290.119.519.519.5 (H=49)19.5 (H=58)
17PROJ-Tremblay24392731.51.1270.119.819.819.8 (H=51)19.8 (H=59)
17PROJ-Bloom23322481.70.7110. (H=48)19.2 (H=56)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.5)22 (+1.8)23 (+2.1)23 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+11.1)29 (+9.5)29 (+10.5)29 (+10.5)
13Benny Snell2316631114012.713.713.213.7
13Jaylen Samuels347320222205.
14Joe Mixon442314614340024.627.626.130.6
14Giovani Bernard304150323104.
15Kenyan Drake46221374119038.639.639.142.6
15David Johnson1336000000.
16Mark Ingram3085502236115.
16Justice Hill1331914332011.114.112.614.1

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $7200)

14@ CLE4423146143.040024.627.626.130.6
15vs NE4425136033.020015.618.617.121.6
16@ MIA392150022.02307.
17PROJ-Dodds18820.42.5190.213.716.215.0 (H=29)16.2 (H=34)
17PROJ-Tremblay18790.42.2170.112.614.813.7 (H=25)14.8 (H=29)
17PROJ-Bloom20900.63.0230.115.518.517.0 (H=37)18.5 (H=43)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4300)

14@ CLE30415032.03104.
15vs NE22527022.01003.
16@ MIA5123032.01201.
17PROJ-Dodds3130.12.41803.76.14.9 (H=6)6.1 (H=10)
17PROJ-Tremblay2100.12.21703.35.54.4 (H=5)5.5 (H=8)
17PROJ-Bloom4160.12.0110. (H=6)5.9 (H=10)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.5)9 (-3.3)8 (-3.0)9 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.1)5 (-7.0)5 (-6.2)5 (-7.4)
13James Washington4444111100017.
13Diontae Johnson405114011703.
14Tyler Boyd56657501708.213.210.713.2
14Alex Erickson60754500005.810.88.010.5
15Damiere Byrd21668600008.614.611.614.6
15Christian Kirk545433012806.
16Seth Roberts35322300002.
16Miles Boykin2711800000.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6700)

14@ CLE5665.07501708.213.210.713.2
15vs NE5773.02600002.
16@ MIA83159.0128200024.833.829.336.8
17PROJ-Dodds5.9730.40009.715.612.7 (H=24)15.6 (H=34)
17PROJ-Tremblay6.5780.400010.216.713.5 (H=27)16.7 (H=39)
17PROJ-Bloom6.0720.600010.816.813.8 (H=28)16.8 (H=39)

John Ross (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4500)

14@ CLE3832.02800002.
15vs NE2532.02400002.
16@ MIA71136.084026091512.015.0
17PROJ-Dodds3.6530.31307.4119.2 (H=17)11.0 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.3650.41409.313.611.5 (H=26)13.6 (H=40)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0440.40006.89.88.3 (H=15)9.8 (H=23)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

14@ CLE6075.04500005.810.88.010.5
15vs NE5051.0600000.61.6-0.90.6
16@ MIA6896.05500005.511.58.511.5
17PROJ-Dodds3.3430.20005.58.87.2 (H=11)8.9 (H=24)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.9500.20006.210.18.2 (H=15)10.2 (H=31)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0320.20004.47.46.0 (H=8)7.5 (H=18)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.2)21T (+0.6)23 (+0.9)21 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.0)23 (+2.5)24 (+2.4)23 (+2.3)
13Vance McDonald54332102.
14Tyler Eifert35444904.
15Dan Arnold1111616.
16Mark Andrews399693221.327.324.327.3

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

14@ CLE3544.04904.
15vs NE3653.04404.
16@ MIA5784.057111.715.715.717.7
17PROJ-Dodds2.9300. (H=8)7.1 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.9290.24.175.6 (H=8)7.0 (H=17)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0340. (H=9)7.6 (H=19)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2700)

14@ CLE4521.0400.
15vs NE4621.0800.
16@ MIA4744.03719.713.711.713.7
17PROJ-Dodds1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.4130. (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0320. (H=7)6.8 (H=20)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.1)19 (+0.1)17T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (+2.1)29T (+2.1)26T (+1.8) (+0.0)
13Chris Boswell2222888.08.0
14Randy Bullock4411131315.015.0
15Zane Gonzalez1155888.08.0
16Justin Tucker1144777.07.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14@ CLE4411131315.015.0
15vs NE2211778.08.0
16@ MIA2211779.09.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.2)14T (+0.2)17T (+0.7)17T (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.7)14 (-0.7)17 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)
13Pittsburgh Steelers13279511009913.013.0
14Cincinnati Bengals2733312000555.05.0
15Arizona Cardinals2439311100555.05.0
16Baltimore Ravens1524101000223.03.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2900)

14@ CLE27.0033312000555.05.0
15vs NE34.0029120000221.01.0
16@ MIA38.0050221000440.00.0
17PROJ-Dodds23.503652.61.20.500. (H=25)8.7 (H=29)
17PROJ-Tremblay23.503752.31.20.400. (H=23)8.2 (H=26)