Matchup Analysis: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bears 17, Vikings 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense17.3 (-5.5) (30)87 (-25) (29)207 (-27) (26)
Vikings Defense18.8 (-4.0) (6)105 (-7) (14)237 (+1) (16)

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense25.9 (+3.1) (7)131 (+18) (7)226 (-9) (20)
Bears Defense18.6 (-4.2) (5)97 (-15) (6)229 (-6) (12)

Bears Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Like most of the Bears offense, David Montgomery has had a disappointing season. Montgomery has had a difficult time with consistency and while he has shown bursts of what he can do, he just has not been able to consistently put it all together to have week-to-week production. Part of the problem has been on the offensive line as the Bears have struggled with health on the right side of their line as Bobby Massie and Kyle Long both have missed significant time. One of the biggest issues has been the lack of big plays from Montgomery who has just one run longer than 25 yards on the year, and only two runs longer than 20 yards.

The Vikings run defense has been a unit that started the season as an elite unit, but in two of the last four weeks have been exposed as a potentially major problem heading into the playoffs. Aaron Jones had a major second-half last week rushing for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns and back in Week 13, the combination of Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson ran for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. The issue for the Vikings is that Anthony Barr has been a liability and the cornerbacks are non-existent in stopping the run. Eric Kendricks was also injured in the second half of the Packers game last week and a big reason why Aaron Jones was able to have such success as Kendricks has been arguably the best linebacker in football. With the Vikings having nothing to play for, Kendricks almost assuredly will not play this week, along with likely some of the other defensive starters which could leave this team incredibly short-handed heading into Week 17.

Bears Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Mitchell Trubisky had put together three straight games in which he looked as if he was improving and getting back to his early 2018 form where he was one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in football. Last week he was shut down as the Chiefs held him to just 157 yards passing in a game that was never close from the start as Trubisky completed just 53% of his passes and looked out of sync. Allen Robinson continues to be the bright spot in Chicago as he is on pace for a 1,150-yard season despite the limitations in the passing game in Chicago. This is a unit that will look for massive improvement heading into the 2020 season.

The Vikings secondary is a unit that after a tremendous start to the season has regressed to the middle of the road defense. The problem for the Vikings is that Xavier Rhodes has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football this season and as good as Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris are at the safety positions, the Vikings look like they are preparing to make a change as Mike Hughes who has struggled as well has out-snapped Rhodes over the last three weeks. Since Week 9, the Vikings have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks at 269 per game. This is partially skewed by Dak Prescott’s 397-yard performance, but none the less, it is still a seven-game sample size. On the year, the Vikings have allowed five quarterbacks to top 300 yards and nine wide receivers to top 90 yards (including six since Week 9). This is a unit that needs to get right before the playoffs as they are no longer the shut-down unit we all thought they would be heading into the season. The safeties and pass rush remain elite, but the cornerback play is a real issue.

Vikings Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bears defense.

With the Vikings seemingly having nothing to play for this week, it appears we might see the combination of Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah once again as both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison remain limited in practice this week. Boone had high expectations last week but struggled to get anything going last week against the Packers as he had just 28 yards rushing on 11 carries as he was unable to break loose. The Vikings may be without a large number of their starters as Kirk Cousins indicated as of Thursday that he is unsure if he would play on Sunday which if the starting quarterback is indicating that he’s unsure if he will play it seems more likely than not that the starters will miss this week.

The Bears run defense has been an above-average unit for most of the year, but they have suffered some big injuries this past week. Big nose tackle Eddie Goldman is dealing with a concussion and it seems unlikely he will play this week and Akiem Hicks who has been the backbone of their defense suffered an elbow injury after returning from the injured reserve last week. These injuries ultimately forced the Bears to go with a modified 3-4 in which they had three defensive ends playing the position which ultimately led to some success from Damien Williams who had 65 yards on 16 carries as without the space-eating lineman in Goldman and Hicks it put tremendous pressure on the linebackers who have struggled block shedding most of the year.

Vikings Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bears defense.

It remains to be seen whether Kirk Cousins and this offense will play their starters as they have nothing to play for in this game. As of Thursday, Cousins indicated he was still not sure whether he would play which is generally a sign that the starters are going to be sitting this one out. If Cousins is unable to go, it would be Sean Mannion who has made just one start in his five-year career which was in Week 17 of 2017 in which he threw for 169 yards for the Rams in a 34-13 loss. The problem for Mannion and this offense will be the lack of receiving options if he starts as assuredly Diggs and Thielen will not play in this game leaving a combination of Bisi Johnson, Laquon Treadwell, and Alexander Hollins as the primary targets in this offense.

The Bears secondary has been a unit that very rarely shuts you completely down, but also limits your success as evidenced by having allowed just two 300-yard passers all year. Last week, the Bears held Patrick Mahomes to just 251 yards on 33 attempts, although it could have been a lot more as the Chiefs had a commanding lead. At the corner position, the Bears have three middle-of-the-road guys in Prince Amukamara, Kyle Fuller and Buster Skrine who have been asked to do more this year due to the lack of pass rush as Khalil Mack is having one of the worst years in his NFL career with just 8.5 sacks. Where the Bears have excelled is in the red zone as no quarterback has thrown for more than two touchdowns this season as once the Bears get into a tighter space they clamp down making it difficult for receivers to get open as Eddie Jackson and Haha Clinton-Dix have been burnt deep a few times this year, but for the most part, are excellent coverage safeties.

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.1)10 (-2.2)9 (-2.2)10 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.3)3 (-6.3)3 (-6.1)4 (-6.0)
13Russell Wilson75213124021413020.320.317.917.9
14David Blough7124402051200012.312.310.210.2
15Philip Rivers6228393071300016.416.411.315.3
16Aaron Rodgers772640216013-309.

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5700)

14vs DAL732331244311063135.535.533.133.1
15@ GB84295333412429021.621.618.321.3
16vs KC6318341570062009.
17PROJ-Dodds22362221.314180.117.717.717.7 (H=39)17.7 (H=50)
17PROJ-Tremblay23362331.214140.117.517.517.5 (H=38)17.5 (H=49)
17PROJ-Bloom19321921.915250.219.919.919.9 (H=48)19.9 (H=62)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.0)11 (-1.7)11 (-1.7)11 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+6.5)27 (+8.1)27 (+6.0)27 (+8.3)
13Rashaad Penny35157415433122.726.724.726.7
13Chris Carson39231021217016.917.917.420.9
14Bo Scarbrough341965031507.
14J.D. McKissic16120441601.
15Austin Ekeler307190756208.113.110.613.1
15Melvin Gordon257280753606.411.44.99.4
16Aaron Jones52231542326028.
16Jamaal Williams216330221905.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5100)

14vs DAL472086010.0008.
15@ GB361439011.01004.
16vs KC351357011.0205.
17PROJ-Dodds15550.31.51108.49.99.2 (H=14)9.9 (H=20)
17PROJ-Tremblay15560.31.51108.5109.3 (H=15)10.0 (H=21)
17PROJ-Bloom14510. (H=13)9.1 (H=17)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4900)

14vs DAL3437066.02403.
15@ GB558280107.05708.515.512.015.5
16vs KC3428043.02503.
17PROJ-Dodds5170.15.1310.1611.18.7 (H=15)11.2 (H=26)
17PROJ-Tremblay5200.15.4340.16.6129.4 (H=17)12.1 (H=30)
17PROJ-Bloom4130.14.0240. (H=13)10.2 (H=22)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.6)20T (+4.8)26 (+3.3)26 (+5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.5)20 (+1.1)16 (-0.7)19 (+0.8)
13David Moore104265100012.514.513.514.5
13DK Metcalf60767500007.513.58.512.5
14Kenny Golladay678658100011.817.814.817.8
14Marvin Jones71733800003.
15Mike Williams529471100013.
15Keenan Allen581099900009.918.914.418.9
16Davante Adams621613116000011.624.616.126.6
16Allen Lazard58954500004.

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $7200)

14vs DAL7185.048200016.821.819.321.8
15@ GB80147.0125000012.519.516.022.5
16vs KC59126.05300005.311.38.311.3
17PROJ-Dodds5.7700.40009.415.112.3 (H=19)15.1 (H=30)
17PROJ-Tremblay5.7690.40009.31512.2 (H=19)15.0 (H=30)
17PROJ-Bloom5.0630.700010.515.513.0 (H=21)15.5 (H=32)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5800)

14vs DAL6543.042100010.213.211.713.2
15@ GB79159.0118100017.826.822.329.8
16vs KC6321.0200000.
17PROJ-Dodds4.4560.20006.811.29.0 (H=13)11.2 (H=22)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.3540.20006.610.98.8 (H=12)10.9 (H=21)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0510.40007.511.59.5 (H=14)11.5 (H=23)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs DAL3330.000000000.00.0
15@ GB800.000000000.00.0
16vs KC5293.02600002.
17PROJ-Dodds1.7190.10002.54.23.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.8220.10002.84.63.7 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
17PROJ-Bloom3.0280.2000475.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=19)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14vs DAL1111.03301-502.
15@ GB3741.0601000.
16vs KC611.05011602.
17PROJ-Dodds0.8801501.32.11.8 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
17PROJ-Tremblay0.6701701.421.8 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
17PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.0)9 (-1.2)7 (-1.8)9 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.9)5 (-6.4)4 (-6.1)5 (-6.8)
13Jacob Hollister61864404.410.47.410.4
14Jesse James38212302.
15Hunter Henry43222902.
16Jimmy Graham41111601.

Jesper Horsted (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs DAL3444.03603.
15@ GB4131.0900.91.9-0.60.9
16vs KC1811.0200232.53.0
17PROJ-Dodds1.5150. (H=2)3.6 (H=7)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.5150. (H=2)3.6 (H=7)
17PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

J.P. Holtz (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2500)

14vs DAL3833.05605.
15@ GB3811.0-10-
16vs KC2711.01301.
17PROJ-Dodds0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
17PROJ-Bloom1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.0)15T (-0.0)13T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.1)14T (-0.1)13 (-0.5) (+0.0)
13Jason Myers3344131313.013.0
14Matt Prater0111111.01.0
15Mike Badgley1111445.05.0
16Mason Crosby33019910.010.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs DAL1144777.07.0
15@ GB2211777.07.0
16vs KC1100334.04.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.3)5 (-2.3)5 (-3.0)5 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-2.0)8T (-2.0)11T (-1.6)11T (-1.6)
13Seattle Seahawks3035401200666.06.0
14Detroit Lions2035410000112.02.0
15Los Angeles Chargers3934401000221.01.0
16Green Bay Packers10139510007711.011.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2100)

14vs DAL24.0040820000222.02.0
15@ GB21.0029210000111.01.0
16vs KC26.0035010000111.01.0
17PROJ-Dodds24.403531.80.70.600. (H=15)7.1 (H=28)
17PROJ-Tremblay19.003362.10.80.800. (H=26)9.8 (H=49)

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.4)9 (-2.4)8 (-2.5)8 (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.7)18 (+0.6)18 (+0.6)19 (+0.4)
13David Blough7622382802111021.121.118.318.3
14Dak Prescott7327493341031020.820.817.520.5
15Aaron Rodgers59163320310323016.516.514.414.4
16Patrick Mahomes65233325120214128.028.025.425.4

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5700)

14vs DET732430242101-10161613.613.6
15@ LAC62192520711314014.814.812.712.7
16vs GB541631122110009.
17PROJ-Dodds20302281.60.7240. (H=39)18.1 (H=52)
17PROJ-Tremblay21322351.20.8240.116.816.816.8 (H=34)16.8 (H=46)
17PROJ-Bloom711780.80.2110. (H=8)7.6 (H=11)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.0)16T (+0.2)16 (+0.2)15 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.2)14 (-2.1)17 (-1.0)15 (-2.7)
13Bo Scarbrough362183000008.
13Ty Johnson253120331702.
14Ezekiel Elliott72198125212021.323.322.323.3
14Tony Pollard000000000.
15Aaron Jones3513512000017.
15Jamaal Williams24826011703.
16Damien Williams0166503327115.218.216.718.2
16Spencer Ware245140322203.

Mike Boone (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5300)

14vs DET6513000.0001.
15@ LAC211356200.00017.617.617.617.6
16vs GB181128011.0503.
17PROJ-Dodds15600.50.9609.610.510.0 (H=17)10.5 (H=22)
17PROJ-Tremblay17680.40.4309.59.99.7 (H=16)9.9 (H=20)
17PROJ-Bloom7260.11.0603.84.84.3 (H=4)4.8 (H=5)

Ameer Abdullah (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3900)

14vs DET600011.0200.
15@ LAC15525020.0002.
16vs GB32427076.03105.811.88.811.8
17PROJ-Dodds9350.22.4170.179.48.3 (H=15)9.5 (H=25)
17PROJ-Tremblay6230.13.4260. (H=13)9.6 (H=25)
17PROJ-Bloom16560.43.0170.110.313.311.9 (H=28)13.4 (H=45)

C.J. Ham (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

14vs DET3010011.02502.
15@ LAC3015033.01301.
16vs GB1700042.01201.
17PROJ-Dodds150.12.2180. (H=6)5.7 (H=12)
17PROJ-Tremblay1302.6210.135.64.3 (H=5)5.6 (H=11)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.6)6T (-4.2)5 (-4.0)7 (-4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.3)25 (+2.7)25 (+3.0)25 (+3.8)
13Kenny Golladay7354158100021.825.823.828.8
13Marvin Jones736340100010.013.011.513.0
14Amari Cooper578683100014.320.317.320.3
14Michael Gallup58106109000010.916.913.919.9
15Davante Adams55137103100016.323.319.826.3
15Jake Kumerow11114900004.
16Tyreek Hill59557200007.212.29.712.2
16Sammy Watkins51522800002.

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6500)

14vs DET5496.09200009.
15@ LAC4664.076014081210.012.0
16vs GB4653.057100011.714.713.214.7
17PROJ-Dodds3.7540.30007.210.99.1 (H=12)10.9 (H=19)
17PROJ-Tremblay4.0670.30108.612.610.6 (H=15)12.6 (H=24)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0610.50009.113.111.1 (H=17)13.1 (H=26)

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6000)

14vs DET000.000000000.00.0
15@ LAC3333.0270130364.56.0
16vs GB5040.0001200.
17PROJ-Dodds3.5450.30006.39.88.1 (H=11)9.8 (H=17)
17PROJ-Tremblay3.4480.30106.710.18.4 (H=11)10.1 (H=18)
17PROJ-Bloom4.0430.50007.311.39.3 (H=13)11.3 (H=22)

Olabisi Johnson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3500)

14vs DET5211.0910006.
15@ LAC2611.01901602.
16vs GB2421.0600000.
17PROJ-Dodds1.3140.100023.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
17PROJ-Tremblay1.4170.10002.33.73.0 (H=2)3.7 (H=5)
17PROJ-Bloom1.070.10001.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)27 (+1.7)24 (+1.0)17T (+1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.7)19 (+0.8)12 (-0.4)17 (+0.6)
13T.J. Hockenson431161801.
14Blake Jarwin22765005.
15Marcedes Lewis3211600.
16Travis Kelce619874113.421.417.421.4

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3800)

14vs DET4722.01101.
15@ LAC3533.04804.
16vs GB3621.0700.
17PROJ-Dodds2.2210. (H=5)5.5 (H=10)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2220. (H=5)5.6 (H=10)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=9)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $2800)

14vs DET5143.02102.
15@ LAC4232.0816.
16vs GB3332.0400.
17PROJ-Dodds2.3200. (H=5)5.5 (H=13)
17PROJ-Tremblay2.2200. (H=3)4.8 (H=10)
17PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=3)4.7 (H=10)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-1.5)4 (-1.5)11T (-1.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.6)11T (-0.6)11 (-1.0) (+0.0)
13Matt Prater2222888.08.0
14Brett Maher1233666.06.0
15Mason Crosby0033333.03.0
16Harrison Butker22238810.010.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs DET22228810.010.0
15@ LAC4434151516.016.0
16vs GB1111444.04.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.5)7 (-1.5)16 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.7)14T (-0.7)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.2)
13Detroit Lions2441911000333.03.0
14Dallas Cowboys3138221100665.05.0
15Green Bay Packers13415321009913.013.0
16Kansas City Chiefs3234300003310.010.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2900)

14vs DET7.00231520009913.013.0
15@ LAC10.0034533401292927.027.0
16vs GB23.0038331200999.09.0
17PROJ-Dodds17.803272.50.80.800.6111111.0 (H=29)11.0 (H=43)
17PROJ-Tremblay18.003302.410.900.510.910.910.9 (H=29)10.9 (H=43)