Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 29, Browns 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense33.7 (+11.0) (1)203 (+90) (1)207 (-28) (26)
Browns Defense23.5 (+0.7) (17)135 (+22) (27)218 (-17) (6)

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense21.2 (-1.5) (21)126 (+14) (10)224 (-12) (19)
Ravens Defense18.4 (-4.4) (4)96 (-16) (5)218 (-17) (7)

Ravens Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Ravens rushing attack continues to flow through Lamar Jackson who is 8th in the NFL in rushing with 1,103 yards on the year. Right behind him at 11th in the league is Mark Ingram who has 963 yards. While Ingram has not put up the huge games, he continues to be extremely reliable and consistent as he has run for 50 yards or more in 9 games this season. What is amazing with Jackson is that he continues to produce even in games that are out of hand as evidenced last week where he ran for 86 yards in a game in which the Ravens had in control from the start. With the Ravens only needing a win or a Patriots loss to secure the number one seed, the one thing to watch will be whether we continue to see Jackson run or if they dial it back a little bit. The Ravens did get tremendous news this week as they will get Ronnie Stanley back at left tackle who has been one of the best in the league this year after leaving last week with a concussion.

The Browns run defense looked like it had their problems fixed, but as it turns out were just fortunate that they had played weak competition from week 10 through week 13. In the last two weeks, the Browns have gone back to being a disaster against the run as they allowed 137 yards and 4 touchdowns last week to Kenyan Drake and 146 yards and a touchdown to Joe Mixon two weeks ago. This led Kareem Hunt to come out and say that some players were not giving 100% and it certainly appeared that way on defense as they appeared uninspired and ready for the season to end. The Browns are forced to play Chad Thomas and Bryan Cox Jr. at defensive end as Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon are both out which has been a major talent drop off on the defensive line. At the linebacker position, Mack Wilson has been one of the worst linebackers in football all season since filling in for Christian Kirksey, but the Browns were incredibly thin at the position and do not have a better option. Expect a big day for Baltimore on the ground against the uninspired and under-talented Browns run defense.

Ravens Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Ravens since Week 5 have designed their offense to be even less pass dependent as they were earlier in the year. Since Week 5, Lamar Jackson has thrown for an average of 178 yards per game, but when he does throw has a high touchdown rate especially recently as over his last seven games he has thrown for 22 touchdowns. This is an offense that uses the run to set up the pass. At the wide receiver position, while Marquise Brown has struggled the last few weeks, Mark Andrews continues to be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams as he leads the team in receiving yards with 759.

The Browns secondary has been a unit that came into the season with high expectations and while they have not been as good as they had hoped, they have been a solid unit for most of the season. The Browns have not allowed a 300-yard passer on the year which they are just one of two teams to do so this year, and since Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams came back from their hamstring injuries, they have allowed just 230 yards passing per game to opponents. Now as good as the stats look, this is by no means a shut-down defense as the talent that they have faced has been poor during that timeframe as they have faced Tom Brady, Brandon Allen, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devlin Hodges, Andy Dalton, and Kyler Murray. This is a young inexperienced defense led by Denzel Ward and rookie Greedy Williams both of which are talented, but like most young players make mistakes at times. The good news for the Browns is that Ward is one of the few cornerbacks fast enough to keep up with Marquise Brown which should bode well for the Browns this week.

Browns Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Freddie Kitchens is hanging his hat and his career on Nick Chubb being the leading rusher in the NFL this season. Seemingly every press conference when trying to talk about things that are going well he brings up Chubb being the leading rusher in the NFL, so expect the volume to continue to be there for Chubb throughout the end of the season as the Browns now have nothing to play for after losing to Arizona in a game that was a major disappointment for the Browns. Chubb has been fantastic for most of the season, but especially in the second half as over his last nine games he has rushed for 90 yards or more in seven of those contests. This is all while running behind a poor offensive line which has led to a change on the right side of the line as Wyatt Teller and Kendall Lamm have replaced Eric Kush and Chris Hubbard. Kareem Hunt continues to play a complementary role, but has nearly as many receptions as he does carries and primarily has been effective as a receiver in this offense.

If there is a way to beat Baltimore, it is on the ground as we have seen the Ravens been exposed the last three weeks by Raheem Mostert (146 yards), Devin Singletary (89 yards), Le’Veon Bell (87 yards). This is a unit that prior to these three games had allowed just two running backs to top 80 yards. The Ravens defense for most of the year had held up and looked like they would not miss the loss of C.J. Moseley in the offseason, but Patrick Onwuasor has been a liability as of late which has caused the coaching staff to significantly reduce his playing time opting instead for a base defense with Chuck Clark who is a tremendous coverage player but has struggled against the run over the last three weeks. As great as the secondary is including Earl Thomas and Brandon Carr, both safeties are not run-stopping specialists, so if you can get past the defensive line in a dime formation with safeties who struggle against the run, there is opportunity to be had. Nick Chubb ran all over the Ravens in their first meeting as he had 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is by no means a fantastic matchup, as the Ravens on the season have still been one of the better teams against the run, but it is not a matchup to fear as it was earlier this year.

Browns Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

This has been a season to forget for the Browns passing offense. Coming into the year with so much hype, the Browns have struggled seemingly all season with the passing game as Baker Mayfield has just two games over 300 yards, and has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns. Consistency at the wide receiver position has been an issue as outside of Jarvis Landry they have been unable to have consistent success. Odell Beckham has struggled finding a rhythm and the offensive line especially at the tackle position has been a disaster in pass blocking with Greg Robinson and now Kendall Lamm who has replaced the benched Chris Hubbard. The Browns seem like a team in disarray with reports that Odell Beckham and potentially Jarvis Landry want out one day then the next day they’re talking about how they need to build something here it just seems like a highly dysfunctional team. Playcalling has also been a major issue for the Browns as reports came out that other teams knew the plays and tendencies that the Browns were running.

Baltimore’s secondary since getting Jimmy Smith back and acquiring Marcus Peters has been a completely changed unit. Since Week 7, the Ravens secondary has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks allowing just 200 yards passing per game and 0.9 touchdowns. This is a unit that has been dominant with Smith, Peters, and Marlon Humphrey to go along with Earl Thomas at safety makes this one of the most talented units in football. Expect Baker Mayfield to struggle mightily this week especially with the edge rushers in Tyus Bowser and Matthew Judon will have an advantage over the tackles for the Browns.

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.0)17 (-0.1)18 (+0.3)15 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.2)11 (-2.3)12 (-1.7)12 (-2.7)
12Ryan Fitzpatrick63213921422545127.
13Devlin Hodges6214212121152013.813.811.711.7
14Andy Dalton75223826201311013.213.210.610.6
15Kyler Murray61192521911856019.619.617.417.4

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $9300, DraftKings: $8000)

13vs SF6514231051016101125.425.422.326.3
14@ BUF601625145311140022.322.320.820.8
15vs NYJ54152321250886039.
16PROJ-Dodds18292161.80.812790.427.527.527.5 (H=66)27.5 (H=77)
16PROJ-Tremblay19302191.70.812880.428.228.228.2 (H=69)28.2 (H=81)
16PROJ-Bloom16202012.20.58610.426.926.926.9 (H=64)26.9 (H=74)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.7)18 (+0.9)20 (+1.2)19 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.9)20 (+2.4)25 (+3.9)23 (+3.4)
12Kalen Ballage247130111302.
12Patrick Laird23320010002.
13Benny Snell2316631114012.713.713.213.7
13Jaylen Samuels347320222205.
14Joe Mixon442314614340024.627.626.130.6
14Giovani Bernard304150323104.
15Kenyan Drake46221374119038.639.639.142.6
15David Johnson1336000000.

Mark Ingram (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6800)

13vs SF361559022.0306.
14@ BUF331550033.02907.910.99.410.9
15vs NYJ341376121.010120.621.623.123.6
16PROJ-Dodds14670.52.2170.212.614.813.7 (H=24)14.8 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay13630.52.2170.212.214.413.3 (H=23)14.4 (H=29)
16PROJ-Bloom14710.52.0170.313.615.614.6 (H=27)15.6 (H=34)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4200)

13vs SF25615011.0702.
14@ BUF20420000.000222.02.0
15vs NYJ18535000.0003.
16PROJ-Dodds7350.20.0004.74.74.7 (H=5)4.7 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay7310.20.1104.44.54.5 (H=5)4.5 (H=6)
16PROJ-Bloom9410.50.0007.17.17.1 (H=11)7.1 (H=14)

Justice Hill (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

13vs SF413000.0000.
14@ BUF638000.0000.
15vs NYJ10415000.0001.
16PROJ-Dodds4140.10.000222.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay4160.10.3202.42.72.6 (H=2)2.7 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom41500.0001.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.6)14 (-1.9)14 (-1.8)15 (-2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.7)20 (+0.5)18 (-0.3)19 (+0.0)
12Allen Hurns577442100010.
12DeVante Parker631169100009.
13James Washington4444111100017.
13Diontae Johnson405114011703.
14Tyler Boyd56657501708.213.210.713.2
14Alex Erickson60754500005.810.88.010.5
15Damiere Byrd21668600008.614.611.614.6
15Christian Kirk545433012806.

Marquise Brown (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $5200)

13vs SF3721.0100000.
14@ BUF4333.0-20000-
15vs NYJ4744.045100010.514.512.514.5
16PROJ-Dodds3.5470.40007.110.68.9 (H=15)10.6 (H=22)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.3440.30006.29.57.9 (H=12)9.5 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0610.60009.712.711.2 (H=23)12.7 (H=31)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

13vs SF2521.01200001.
14@ BUF3743.01310007.310.38.810.3
15vs NYJ4111.01500001.
16PROJ-Dodds2.1250.20003.75.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.2270.20003.96.15.0 (H=7)6.1 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0130.30003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=9)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3800)

13vs SF3221.0500000.
14@ BUF2741.0800000.
15vs NYJ3633.066100012.615.614.115.6
16PROJ-Dodds1.7210.10002.74.43.6 (H=3)4.4 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.10002.94.63.8 (H=3)4.6 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0220.20003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=9)

Miles Boykin (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

13vs SF2500.000000000.00.0
14@ BUF1800.000000000.00.0
15vs NYJ1911.0510006.
16PROJ-Dodds0.8120.10001.82.62.2 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.7100.10001.62.32.0 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.2)11T (-0.8)14 (-0.3)12 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.1)11 (-2.1)11T (-1.5)11 (-2.3)
12Mike Gesicki57732818.811.810.311.8
13Vance McDonald54332102.
14Tyler Eifert35444904.
15Dan Arnold1111616.

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5900)

13vs SF2863.0501111412.514.0
14@ BUF931.01401.
15vs NYJ2374.052111.
16PROJ-Dodds4.0510.47.511.59.5 (H=15)11.5 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay4.2510.47.511.79.6 (H=15)11.7 (H=24)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0580.58.812.810.8 (H=18)12.8 (H=28)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3100)

13vs SF2343.02102.
14@ BUF2833.073113.316.314.816.3
15vs NYJ1821.01901.
16PROJ-Dodds2.1230. (H=5)5.6 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.1220. (H=5)5.5 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0250. (H=5)5.7 (H=13)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2800)

13vs SF6021.0400.
14@ BUF5432.0101798.09.0
15vs NYJ4800.000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2.2230. (H=5)5.7 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.3240. (H=6)5.9 (H=15)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=0)2.1 (H=2)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+0.1)24T (+0.1)19 (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+1.9)24T (+1.9)24 (+1.6) (+0.0)
12Jason Sanders1133666.06.0
13Chris Boswell2222888.08.0
14Randy Bullock4411131315.015.0
15Zane Gonzalez1155888.08.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs SF2222889.09.0
14@ BUF1133666.06.0
15vs NYJ0045444.04.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.4)20T (+0.4)23T (+1.0)23T (+1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.9)15T (-0.9)11 (-1.4)11 (-1.4)
12Miami Dolphins414671100033-1.0-1.0
13Pittsburgh Steelers13279511009913.013.0
14Cincinnati Bengals2733312000555.05.0
15Arizona Cardinals2439311100555.05.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4000)

13vs SF17.0033120100447.07.0
14@ BUF17.0020960100889.09.0
15vs NYJ21.0031011100557.07.0
16PROJ-Dodds19.603592.41.20.600.510.210.210.2 (H=24)10.2 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay21.003752.41.20.500. (H=20)9.2 (H=23)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.7)3 (-4.7)3 (-4.5)3 (-4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-7.5)2 (-7.6)2 (-7.2)2 (-7.3)
12Jared Goff542637212021-
13Jimmy Garoppolo5715211651035012.812.89.110.1
14Josh Allen7517391461029012.212.210.711.7
15Sam Darnold59183221821111019.019.016.817.8

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5400)

13@ PIT6718321961112013139.010.0
14vs CIN55112419202213114.914.913.013.0
15@ ARI70304324721211020.520.518.018.0
16PROJ-Dodds22352541.31.2270.1181818.0 (H=40)18.0 (H=55)
16PROJ-Tremblay22362561.31.2280. (H=41)18.2 (H=56)
16PROJ-Bloom18281961.20.82120.115.615.615.6 (H=31)15.6 (H=43)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.8)4 (-4.3)7 (-3.4)6 (-4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.6)1 (-7.8)2 (-7.0)3 (-7.6)
12Todd Gurley52622033-301.
12Malcolm Brown210000000.
13Raheem Mostert42191461228021.423.422.426.4
13Tevin Coleman1056011901.
14Devin Singletary61178908629011.817.814.817.8
14Frank Gore1446000000.
15LeVeon Bell512187022108.810.89.810.8
15Ty Montgomery1225011501.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6900)

13@ PIT411658021.02107.
14vs CIN3915106011.011011.712.712.215.7
15@ ARI3517127133.021020.823.822.326.8
16PROJ-Dodds17860.51.81401314.813.9 (H=23)14.8 (H=30)
16PROJ-Tremblay18860.51.713012.914.613.8 (H=23)14.6 (H=30)
16PROJ-Bloom17800.52.0150. (H=24)15.1 (H=31)

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5500)

13@ PIT45746055.019112.517.515.017.5
14vs CIN35928132.040012.814.813.814.8
15@ ARI43414098.06207.615.611.615.6
16PROJ-Dodds7310.24.0320. (H=17)12.1 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay6250.24.3320.17.511.89.7 (H=16)11.8 (H=26)
16PROJ-Bloom6280.25.0340.28.613.611.1 (H=21)13.6 (H=33)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.7)17 (+0.7)16 (-0.1)17 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.1)17 (-0.3)19 (+0.2)18 (-0.5)
12Robert Woods36969700009.715.712.715.7
12Cooper Kupp531063500003.
13Deebo Samuel5542411120012.
13Kendrick Bourne25334200004.
14Cole Beasley73742910008.912.912.914.9
14John Brown73832600002.
15Jamison Crowder5011690200021.
15Robby Anderson59646600006.610.610.612.6

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6000)

13@ PIT67116.07600007.613.610.613.6
14vs CIN5074.07600007.611.69.611.6
15@ ARI6885.02300002.
16PROJ-Dodds5.7770.400010.115.813.0 (H=24)15.8 (H=39)
16PROJ-Tremblay6.2840.400010.81713.9 (H=27)17.0 (H=45)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0570.40008.112.110.1 (H=15)12.1 (H=25)

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5800)

13@ PIT6563.02900002.
14vs CIN4952.03900003.
15@ ARI68138.06600006.614.610.614.6
16PROJ-Dodds4.9680.30008.613.511.1 (H=19)13.5 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.3720.3000914.311.7 (H=21)14.3 (H=34)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0590.30007.712.710.2 (H=16)12.7 (H=28)

Khadarel Hodge (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ PIT2100.000000000.00.0
14vs CIN1310.000000000.00.0
15@ ARI3010.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ PIT2930.000000000.00.0
14vs CIN100.000000000.00.0
15@ ARI000.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-2.9)1 (-4.3)1 (-3.6)1 (-4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.0)1T (-7.0)2 (-5.9)1T (-7.2)
12Gerald Everett17222302.
13George Kittle57421701.
14Dawson Knox55413703.
15Daniel Brown2921400.

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ PIT4341.02302.
14vs CIN000.000000.00.0
15@ ARI4221.01301.
16PROJ-Dodds1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.1110. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ricky Seals-Jones (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ PIT1400.000000.00.0
14vs CIN1111.02202.
15@ ARI1943.029214.917.914.416.9
16PROJ-Dodds1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0310. (H=6)6.3 (H=16)

Stephen Carlson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ PIT1822.02802.
14vs CIN4110.000000.00.0
15@ ARI1700.000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds0.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.770.11.321.7 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (+0.1)9T (+0.1)17T (-0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.6)9 (-1.6)10 (-1.7) (+0.0)
12Greg Zuerlein2200667.07.0
13Robbie Gould1222555.05.0
14Steve Hauschka33009911.011.0
15Sam Ficken0112111.01.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ PIT2211777.07.0
14vs CIN22339911.011.0
15@ ARI1233667.07.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.7)4 (-2.7)1T (-4.2)1T (-4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.9)2 (-3.9)2 (-4.1)2 (-4.1)
12Los Angeles Rams454803000033-1.0-1.0
13San Francisco 49ers2028310100334.04.0
14Buffalo Bills2425711000333.03.0
15New York Jets4243010000115.05.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1800)

13@ PIT20.0032311000334.04.0
14vs CIN19.0045121001101011.011.0
15@ ARI38.004450100022-2.0-2.0
16PROJ-Dodds26.304022.10.90.600. (H=17)6.7 (H=29)
16PROJ-Tremblay28.004181.90.80.500. (H=13)5.7 (H=22)