Matchup Analysis: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Saints 27, Titans 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New Orleans Saints Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Saints Offense27.0 (+4.2) (5)109 (-3) (16)265 (+28) (7)
Titans Defense19.9 (-2.8) (8)104 (-7) (13)258 (+22) (25)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense24.2 (+1.5) (11)131 (+18) (8)222 (-13) (20)
Saints Defense21.6 (-1.1) (14)91 (-21) (4)238 (+2) (17)

Saints Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Saints rushing offense has been quite underwhelming compared to the rest of this team as Alvin Kamara simply isn’t getting it done on the ground this season. Kamara has yet to exceed 100 rushing yards and has scored in just one of his 12 gamers started. Throwing out his injury game in Week 10, Kamara is averaging a mediocre 13.5 carries per game and has topped 75 rushing yards just once (in Week 1). Kamara is still out-touching and out-snapping his counterpart Latavius Murray, playing more than double the snaps of Murray on a weekly basis. Murray does remain involved in this offense, but not nearly to the extent he was when Kamara was injured as Murray has seen single-digit carries in four straight games. Having the top-ranked offensive line in football according to Matt Bitonti of Footballguys will always give this rushing offense a high ceiling, they just haven’t quite hit it yet this season and would be hard-pressed to do so on the road against a decent Titans defense this week.

The Titans sport an above-average run defense that has faltered somewhat in recent weeks, but remains a unit built for success against the run. They have given up at least one rushing touchdown to running backs in four straight weeks and allowed Carlos Hyde to run for 104 yards last week, but it took Hyde 26 carries to hit that mark and this group has allowed a lead running back to cross the 90-yard mark just three times this season. Their trio of interior defensive linemen--Jurrell Casey, Daquan Jones, and rookie Jeffrey Simmons--have all played very well as a unit since Simmons made his season debut in Week 7. Linebacker Rashaan Evans may need some work in coverage, but he has also played well against the run alongside Jayon Brown, who has made a splash this season as the best linebacker on this team. The Saints will pose a huge challenge for the Titans this week though, as their top-tier offensive line will be one of the better groups this Titans defense has faced. Given the issues with this Titans secondary, however, the Saints will likely take the path of least resistance through the air versus on the ground in this matchup.

Saints Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Drew Brees was simply breathtaking in his record-breaking performance last week, completing 29-of-30 passes with 307 yards and four touchdowns. Brees has been on fire in the past two weeks, throwing for over 300 yards in each game with nine touchdowns and no interceptions over that span. Brees has now passed for three or more touchdowns in all but two of his seven games since returning from injury, ranking as the fourth-best fantasy quarterback on a points-per-game basis since Week 8. Michael Thomas, on the other hand, has been the top wide receiver in football pretty much all season as he is dominating the league in both receptions (133) and receiving yards (1,552). Thomas has been virtually un-guardable in coverage and has seen double-digit targets in all but three games. He has also scored in four of his last five contests and surpassed 100 receiving yards in all but one game with Brees under center. Alvin Kamara continues to see a decent volume of low-leverage targets, and receiver Trequan Smith has scored in three of his last four games despite hauling in no more than two receptions in each outing. Jared Cook is also still seeing decent targets.

The Titans passing defense is in bad shape given their injuries at the cornerback position along with a lack of consistent pressure being applied by this defensive front. Last week, the Texans wide receivers had their way with this group as DeAndre Hopkins eclipsed 110 yards while Kenny Stills scored twice--with one of those touchdowns coming against cornerback Logan Ryan, who has been the only steady piece of this cornerback group. Ryan has excelled for most of the season, but he has shown some vulnerability in the past few weeks. Adoree Jackson has been sidelined since Week 13 and remains questionable. His absence would again be a big problem, as while Tye Smith has looked decent in spots, neither he nor Trumaine Brock will be any match for the likes of Michael Thomas. Tight ends have also been problematic for the Titans throughout the year, as they have given up seven touchdowns to the position while allowing five different tight ends to exceed 70 receiving yards. In the trenches, the Titans have generated inconsistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks despite notching multiple sacks in six of their last seven games. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in football, and that immaculate protection should afford Drew Brees and company plenty of time to gash this susceptible Titans secondary.

Titans Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Saints defense.

The Titans rushed for 163 yards last week against a very soft Texans run defense, however, that game marked the first time in over a month that Derrick Henry was held below 100 rushing yards and the first time since Week 8 that he did not score a touchdown. Henry still remains a dangerous threat on the ground as he has a high level of volume behind him, rushing at least 18 times in five straight games while having rushed 20 or more times in six games this season. He is tied with the third-most rushing touchdowns (13) in the league and ranks behind only Nick Chubb in total rushing yards. Ryan Tannehill also adds some upside to this rushing offense as he has some speed when needed, rushing for at least 10 yards in five of his last six games with four rushing touchdowns over that span. The Titans offensive line continues to play at a high level and remains healthy, ranking firmly within the top-10 with an A+ run-blocking grade according to Matt Bitonti of Footballguys.

This New Orleans team is playing some of the best football in the league right now, and their run defense is no exception as they stack up as one of the best groups out there. Allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.8) and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (non-PPR) to running backs, this team is a force to be reckoned with. No running back has exceeded 70 rushing yards against the Saints since Leonard Fournette hit the 72-yard mark in Week 7, and only one running back amassed more rushing yards than Fournette--Carlos Hyde with 83 yards in Week 1. Strong play from both the Saints defense and offense can be thanked for these elite stats against the run, as teams rarely have the luxury of relying on their run game when behind by one or more touchdowns. A strong all-around defensive line anchors this run defense, and they showed few ill effects from the Week 14 loss of starter Sheldon Rankins. Excellent play from linebacker Demario Davis has been the true highlight for this team though, as Davis is a top-10 solo tackler (77) who is having a career year at the center of this Saints defense. The Titans have a strong offensive line that will match up well with the Saints in the trenches, but getting past this second level could prove to be challenging even for the likes of Derrick Henry in what could be a long afternoon for him.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Saints defense.

The Titans passing offense has been one of the most surprising units in the league over the second half of the season due to the spectacular play from both Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. Tannehill regressed slightly last week as he completed a season-low 61.1 percent of his passes and was noticeably more hesitant than he had been in the past three games, but he still showed no fear with the deep ball and found the end zone twice for the seventh time in eight starts. A.J. Brown continues to explode onto the scene as he finally saw a WR1 level of volume with 13 targets--five more than he has been given in any other game this season. Brown has now exceeded 110 yards and scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four games, ranking as the second-best fantasy wide receiver in points scored over that span. Jonnu Smith is typically next in line for targets in this offense as he bounced back with a nice game last week after seeing just six targets in his previous three games combined. Adam Humphries remains questionable with an ankle injury from which he hopes to return this week, but he has offered little upside on the fantasy radar this season.

This Saints defense made the Colts offense look silly last week as they suffocated Jacoby Brissett and every other offensive player for Indianapolis. New Orleans does have a very good defense overall, but last week’s showing certainly was an outlier for this passing defense that had given up over 300 yards in three of their last four games leading into Week 15 along with multiple passing touchdowns in five straight weeks. A.J. Brown should draw shadow coverage from the Saints’ top cornerback Marshon Lattimore in what should be a very fun and relatively even matchup. Slot cornerback P.J. Williams has not played well at all this season though, and he should afford a favorable matchup to either Tajae Sharpe or Adam Humphries (if healthy). The Saints front seven has been one of the best in football this season with 44 sacks (4th-most), but they did struggle to apply pressure against a top-tier Colts offensive line last week. While the Titans line has played better in recent weeks, they still have been quite susceptible to strong pass rushes with four or more sacks allowed in eight games this season.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.2)15 (-0.4)16 (-0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)14 (-1.3)14 (-0.7)15 (-0.9)
12Nick Foles86324827200320015.615.614.914.9
13Jacoby Brissett722540319121-1017.917.914.717.7
14Derek Carr63253426320217022.922.920.220.2
15Deshaun Watson63192724322732021.421.418.918.9

Drew Brees (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $6900)

13@ ATL481830184101-1013.113.111.311.3
14vs SF6829403495011143.643.640.143.1
15vs IND6029303074000031.431.428.331.3
16PROJ-Dodds26362671.90.7110.120.920.920.9 (H=47)20.9 (H=56)
16PROJ-Tremblay24362611.90.9110.120.420.420.4 (H=45)20.4 (H=53)
16PROJ-Bloom27352862.30.7110.123.523.523.5 (H=57)23.5 (H=68)

Taysom Hill (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4100)

13@ ATL1301000233116.518.517.518.5
14vs SF280100051302.
15vs IND170000021010.312.311.312.3
16PROJ-Dodds127003140. (H=5)5.1 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay013003140. (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom000002120. (H=9)7.5 (H=15)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (+0.3)20 (+1.2)18 (+0.7)20 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.6)24 (+3.4)23 (+3.3)25 (+3.6)
12Leonard Fournette822497212962027.936.932.436.9
12Devine Ozigbo000000000.
13Nyheim Hines3142212218010.
13Jordan Wilkins321147032905.
14DeAndre Washington40145317643015.621.618.621.6
14Jalen Richard247280321804.
15Carlos Hyde42261041000016.416.416.419.4
15Duke Johnson21240321902.

Alvin Kamara (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $7500)

13@ ATL411161084.02308.412.410.412.4
14vs SF551325064.01804.
15vs IND421466055.02308.913.911.413.9
16PROJ-Dodds12520.36.4460.212.819.216.0 (H=33)19.2 (H=44)
16PROJ-Tremblay11470.36.5460.212.318.815.6 (H=32)18.8 (H=42)
16PROJ-Bloom13550.35.0220.210.715.713.2 (H=24)15.7 (H=31)

Latavius Murray (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5100)

13@ ATL1342000.0000.
14vs SF24769032.02509.411.410.411.4
15vs IND22929032.02004.
16PROJ-Dodds8320.21.81205.67.46.5 (H=9)7.4 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay7280.21.51105.16.65.9 (H=7)6.6 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom7250.42.01706.68.67.6 (H=12)8.6 (H=16)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.5)16 (+0.1)17 (+0.0)16 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.4)13 (-1.9)12 (-2.7)14 (-1.3)
12Dede Westbrook74986900006.914.910.914.9
12Chris Conley65944900004.
13Zach Pascal72107109000010.917.914.420.9
13Marcus Johnson67645500005.
14Tyrell Williams52433500003.
14Keelan Doss28332600002.
15Kenny Stills393335200015.518.517.018.5
15DeAndre Hopkins6386119000011.917.914.920.9

Michael Thomas (FanDuel: $9000, DraftKings: $9300)

13@ ATL4086.04800004.810.87.810.8
14vs SF701511.0134100019.430.424.933.4
15vs IND481212.0128100018.830.824.833.8
16PROJ-Dodds8.4970.700013.922.318.1 (H=33)22.3 (H=46)
16PROJ-Tremblay8.2990.700014.122.318.2 (H=33)22.3 (H=46)
16PROJ-Bloom9.0990.800014.723.719.2 (H=37)23.7 (H=51)

Ted Ginn (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

13@ ATL2710.000000000.00.0
14vs SF4264.0500000597.09.0
15vs IND1911.01300001.
16PROJ-Dodds2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=7)6.5 (H=13)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.0280.2000465.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=11)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0320.20004.46.45.4 (H=7)6.4 (H=12)

TreQuan Smith (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

13@ ATL3722.01400001.
14vs SF5642.02910008.910.99.910.9
15vs IND4511.02110008.
16PROJ-Dodds1.6210.20003.34.94.1 (H=5)4.9 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.20003.14.53.8 (H=4)4.5 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0240.30004.26.25.2 (H=7)6.2 (H=13)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.0)24 (+1.4)23 (+0.9)24 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+1.4)23 (+2.7)20 (+1.1)22 (+2.0)
12Nick OLeary45443603.
13Jack Doyle6811673113.319.316.319.3
14Foster Moreau26331417.410.48.910.4
15Jordan Akins3822700.

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5000)

13@ ATL2963.08508.511.510.011.5
14vs SF822.064218.420.419.420.4
15vs IND2844.05405.
16PROJ-Dodds3.6460.4710.68.8 (H=13)10.6 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.3430.46.7108.4 (H=12)10.0 (H=21)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0610.48.512.510.5 (H=17)12.5 (H=31)

Josh Hill (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3200)

13@ ATL2921.0200.
14vs SF6232.0416.
15vs IND4711.0516.
16PROJ-Dodds1.4130. (H=1)3.3 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.2110. (H=1)2.9 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.3)7T (-1.3)7 (-1.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.9)7 (-1.9)9 (-1.9) (+0.0)
12Josh Lambo2200669.09.0
13Adam Vinatieri1422555.05.0
14Daniel Carlson0033333.03.0
15Kaimi Fairbairn1133666.06.0

Wil Lutz (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ ATL4422141417.017.0
14vs SF2244101013.013.0
15vs IND2244101010.010.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.6)12 (-0.6)10 (-0.7)10 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-1.1)13T (-1.1)4 (-3.4)4 (-3.4)
12Jacksonville Jaguars4247110200551.01.0
13Indianapolis Colts312926020010109.09.0
14Oakland Raiders425520100022-2.0-2.0
15Houston Texans2143221000446.06.0

New Orleans Saints (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2700)

13@ ATL18.0034892100151516.016.0
14vs SF48.0051631000551.01.0
15vs IND7.0020510000115.05.0
16PROJ-Dodds23.503602.20.90.600. (H=18)7.9 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay25.003531.90.90.500. (H=16)7.2 (H=22)

Saints vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.0)21 (+1.0)21 (+1.2)21 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.1)21 (+2.0)21 (+1.6)22 (+2.4)
12Kyle Allen7623362563019025.725.723.123.1
13Matt Ryan93355031222321023.723.718.622.6
14Jimmy Garoppolo6726353494121032.632.629.132.1
15Jacoby Brissett561834165001709.

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6600)

13@ IND6017221822045017.617.613.814.8
14@ OAK62212739131419032.532.528.531.5
15vs HOU672236279213101282825.225.2
16PROJ-Dodds19282351.50.84180.2202020.0 (H=45)20.0 (H=54)
16PROJ-Tremblay19292321.40.94190.219.419.419.4 (H=43)19.4 (H=51)
16PROJ-Bloom18252171.70.64130.420.820.820.8 (H=49)20.8 (H=58)

Saints vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.3)6 (-3.5)5 (-4.0)5 (-4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.1)21 (+2.7)20 (+2.1)20 (+2.1)
12Christian McCaffrey76226419969125.334.329.834.3
12Jordan Scarlett000000000.
13Devonta Freeman6217510541306.410.48.410.4
13Brian Hill244130332403.
14Raheem Mostert40106912240122.924.923.924.9
14Matt Breida12654011405.
15Jordan Wilkins24310131707.
15Marlon Mack251119000001.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $7700)

13@ IND4526149133.017022.625.622.127.6
14@ OAK3718103211.06022.923.923.426.9
15vs HOU392186010.0008.
16PROJ-Dodds18870.71.6140.114.916.515.7 (H=26)16.5 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay18820.71.6140.114.41615.2 (H=25)16.0 (H=31)
16PROJ-Bloom21840. (H=23)14.9 (H=27)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

13@ IND1100011.0900.
14@ OAK24926011.0503.
15vs HOU24310011.01118.
16PROJ-Dodds4180.11.61103.55.14.3 (H=5)5.1 (H=7)
16PROJ-Tremblay4160.11.3903.14.43.8 (H=4)4.4 (H=6)
16PROJ-Bloom3100.11.0502.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)

Saints vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.7)25 (+4.4)27 (+4.4)25 (+4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+9.1)30 (+12.1)29 (+10.4)29 (+12.3)
12D.J. Moore6396126218025.431.428.434.4
12Curtis Samuel64419044004.
13Russell Gage639552100011.216.213.716.2
13Calvin Ridley871089100009.
14Emmanuel Sanders6397157100027.534.530.637.1
14Kendrick Bourne384318200013.816.815.316.8
15Zach Pascal45644400004.
15Marcus Johnson45423700003.

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $7000)

13@ IND5443.04500004.
14@ OAK5275.01532113028.633.631.136.6
15vs HOU61138.0114100017.425.421.428.4
16PROJ-Dodds3.5580.30007.611.19.4 (H=13)11.1 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.2520.30107.110.38.7 (H=11)10.3 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0770.700011.916.914.4 (H=28)16.9 (H=38)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ IND4121.02300002.
14@ OAK4742.03400003.
15vs HOU5163.05700005.
16PROJ-Dodds2.8400.20005.286.6 (H=10)8.0 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.8390.20005.17.96.5 (H=9)7.9 (H=17)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ IND2321.01310007.
14@ OAK000.000000000.00.0
15vs HOU000.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2.2250.20003.75.94.8 (H=6)5.9 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.4280.200046.45.2 (H=6)6.4 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

13@ IND000.000000000.00.0
14@ OAK3044.02500002.
15vs HOU2722.02800002.
16PROJ-Dodds1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0390.30005.79.77.7 (H=14)9.7 (H=27)

Kalif Raymond (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ IND1711.0401000101110.511.0
14@ OAK1221.01100001.
15vs HOU1521.0200000.
16PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.4600000.610.9 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0330.20004.56.55.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=17)

Saints vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.0)10 (-1.1)9 (-1.0)11 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.1)15 (-0.3)16 (-0.1)15 (-0.5)
12Greg Olsen70754404.
13Jaeden Graham554441110.
14George Kittle628667112.718.715.718.7
15Jack Doyle46522102.

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

13@ IND5222.000021.02.0
14@ OAK4943.02918.911.910.411.9
15vs HOU5455.060011.716.714.216.7
16PROJ-Dodds3.1350. (H=8)7.8 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.9330. (H=8)7.4 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0500.47.411.49.4 (H=17)11.4 (H=35)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ IND1943.02202.
14@ OAK1211.03903.
15vs HOU1841.0700.
16PROJ-Dodds1.7210.23.354.2 (H=5)5.0 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.7220. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom1.0600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Saints vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.3)11T (-0.3)14T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.6)15 (-0.6)16 (+0.1) (+0.0)
12Joey Slye23137710.010.0
13Matt Bosher0000000.00.0
14Robbie Gould2266121213.013.0
15Rigoberto Sanchez0000000.00.0

Greg Joseph (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ IND1144777.07.0
14@ OAK0166666.06.0
15vs HOU0133333.03.0

Saints vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.5)1 (-3.5)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.9)1 (-4.9)1 (-6.9)1 (-6.9)
12Carolina Panthers3441821000443.03.0
13Atlanta Falcons2627900000000.00.0
14San Francisco 49ers464650010022-2.0-2.0
15Indianapolis Colts344240000000-1.0-1.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2100)

13@ IND17.00391321009920.020.0
14@ OAK21.0035620101161610.010.0
15vs HOU24.0037412000555.05.0
16PROJ-Dodds25.503672.410.600. (H=19)7.8 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay26.003582.410.600. (H=19)7.8 (H=33)