Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 25, Bears 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense28.1 (+5.4) (4)93 (-19) (25)291 (+55) (3)
Bears Defense18.1 (-4.7) (3)97 (-15) (6)227 (-8) (13)

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense18.3 (-4.5) (26)86 (-26) (29)213 (-22) (25)
Chiefs Defense20.3 (-2.5) (10)132 (+19) (26)225 (-10) (11)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Chiefs rushing offense has been one this season that is content being a true running back by committee as we saw last week where Darwin Thompson, Spencer Ware, and Lesean McCoy each had 8,7,6 carries. The good news for the Chiefs is that they may get Damien Williams back this week as Williams has not played since November 18th as he is dealing with a rib injury. He was a limited participant at Wednesday’s practice which would help the backfield albeit keep it even less clear than it already is as the Chiefs do not have a running back that has over 465 yards on the season and do not have a running back with over 101 carries.

The Bears welcomed back Akiem Hicks last week and the run defense is completely different when Hicks is in the game. The 324-pound defensive end was dominant in his return and played a big role in holding Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones to a combined 77 yards on 21 carries. Hicks does not light up the box score as he had just four tackles, but what he does is prevents the holes from opening and does a tremendous job keeping the linebackers free allowing them to make the tackles at the line of scrimmage. On the year, the Bears are not as dominant as they were in 2018 against the run, but they have held allowed just two 100 yard rushers on the year and are only allowing 84 yards per game and are amongst the league-best at just 3.7 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs as they have rebounded nicely after the back-to-back 100-yard games to Jordan Howard and Latavius Murray.

Chiefs Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Even in the snow, Patrick Mahomes was able to get back on track against Denver last week throwing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns after coming off of one of his worst three-game stretches in his young career statistically. The Chiefs went back to their superstars in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce last week as Tyreek Hill scored two touchdowns and Kelce had 11 receptions for 142 yards. Since Mahomes returned, Kelce has been dominant as he is averaging 93 yards per game over the five games since Mahomes returned from injury.

While the Bears secondary has not been nearly as good as last season, it is still an above-average unit with veteran corners. The Bears on the season have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks allowing just 237 yards passing as the defense has allowed just two 300-yard passers both of which were in garbage time performances. This is a unit that does not have a weakness as they are solid across the board with Kendall Fuller, Prince Amukamara, Eddie Jackson, and Haha Clinton-Dix. Surprisingly, the Bears pass rush has struggled this season as Khalil Mack has just 7.5 sacks and has mostly been neutralized this season. With Akiem Hicks being back that should help the unit tremendously as the defense is unable to double both of the two stars next to each other on the defensive line.

Bears Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

After two of his better games on the season, David Montgomery came back to what we have come to expect which is a low output as the rookie has struggled with consistency for most of the year. The Packers all but shut Montgomery down holding him to just 39 yards on 14 carries as he just could not get past the defensive line as the offensive line failed to create a consistent running lane. The offensive line for the Bears has been a big issue this season since losing Kyle Long in Week 6 as Rashaad Coward has struggled mightily at the right guard position and they have been without Bobbie Massie at right tackle who may return this week which would be a nice upgrade for the Bears. Tarik Cohen has been a non-factor for most of the season running the ball as he is averaging just 3.5 yards-per-carry and has only seen 58 carries on the year failing to score a touchdown.

The Chiefs suffered a big loss this week as Alex Okafor was lost for the season with a pectoral injury which the Chiefs then went out and claimed Terrell Suggs. Suggs won’t factor in much against the run, which will force Tanoh Kpassagnon to likely see more snaps this week. Kpassagnon has struggled this season and could be a liability moving forward on the left defensive end. The key to beating the Chiefs is getting to the second level past the strong interior of the defensive line in Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi. Jones has been near perfect since returning from injury and has been a big reason the Chiefs have shut down the Broncos and Patriots the last two weeks on the ground. This remains a flawed unit outside of the defensive line as they have one of the weakest linebacking groups in football as Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson have struggled to stop the run which when running backs get going has been a big factor in 7 opponents rushing for 99 yards or more this season.

Bears Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Mitchell Trubisky is finally looking healthy after an early-season shoulder injury that prevented him from trusting his mobility and scrambling. What Trubisky does tremendously well is throwing on the run and create plays with his mobility within the pocket. Anthony Miller has been a top-tier receiver over the last five weeks as he has 74 yards or more in four of those contests as it took Taylor Gabriel to be out with an injury for the Bears coaching staff to put Miller into a role to succeed. Alongside Miller, Allen Robinson continues to be one of the best wide receivers in the league even if he was not selected for a Pro Bowl as the receiver has been tremendous for most of the season, but especially late as he has two 125 yard games over his last four. This is a team that even in a disappointing season is heading into the offseason with optimism that they have figured out consistency in the passing game.

The Chiefs are designed to stop the pass and while they are by no means a perfect unit, they are an above-average unit holding opponents to just 243 yards per game which is the 11th best in the league. On the year, they have been nearly dominant against wide receivers allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position and allowing only one 100-yard receiver on the year which was D.J. Chark back in Week 1 as the safeties in Juan Thornhill and Tyrann Mathieu have been tremendous preventing big plays as the Chiefs mostly play a zone scheme. Where the Chiefs have struggled mightily is against the tight end and running back position as they have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends and the most receiving yards to running backs as the linebackers for the Chiefs have been a problem all year with Anthony Hitchens, Daniel Sorenson (sub-linebacker in a dime package), and Damien Wilson. The good news for the Chiefs is that the Bears don’t have a tight end that has 100 yards on the season as they do not utilize the position in the passing game and Tarik Cohen has largely been a disappointment averaging just 5.8 yards per catch. This should be a matchup problem for the Bears who rely so heavily on their receivers to have success in the passing game.

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.2)6 (-3.1)5 (-3.3)5 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.5)12 (-1.6)13 (-1.7)13 (-1.6)
12Daniel Jones60213615020227018.218.214.715.7
13David Blough7622382802111021.121.118.318.3
14Dak Prescott7327493341031020.820.817.520.5
15Aaron Rodgers59163320310323016.516.514.414.4

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6800)

13vs OAK66152917510325121.321.319.519.5
14@ NE7826402831166017.817.814.914.9
15vs DEN68273434021311025.125.123.726.7
16PROJ-Dodds24372831.80.83140.122.522.522.5 (H=52)22.5 (H=64)
16PROJ-Tremblay24382841.80.93120.122.322.322.3 (H=51)22.3 (H=63)
16PROJ-Bloom22302732.30.73110.123.823.823.8 (H=57)23.8 (H=71)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.0)16 (+0.2)16 (+0.2)16 (-0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-3.2)4 (-5.7)9 (-4.2)4 (-6.2)
12Saquon Barkley581759032106.
12Wayne Gallman211000000.
13Bo Scarbrough362183000008.
13Ty Johnson253120331702.
14Ezekiel Elliott72198125212021.323.322.323.3
14Tony Pollard000000000.
15Aaron Jones3513512000017.
15Jamaal Williams24826011703.

Damien Williams (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4800)

13vs OAK000000.000000.00.0
14@ NE000000.000000.00.0
15vs DEN000000.000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds6220.21.6110. (H=7)6.7 (H=11)
16PROJ-Tremblay7260.21.7120. (H=9)7.3 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4300)

13vs OAK24510133.020091210.512.0
14@ NE241139031.0404.
15vs DEN17616000.0001.
16PROJ-Dodds7290.21.49056.45.7 (H=7)6.4 (H=11)
16PROJ-Tremblay5200.20.9603.84.74.3 (H=4)4.7 (H=6)
16PROJ-Bloom8300.31.060.1676.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=13)

Darwin Thompson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

13vs OAK241144100.00010.410.410.410.4
14@ NE2147054.03604.
15vs DEN24838011.0103.
16PROJ-Dodds5180.11.51003.44.94.2 (H=4)4.9 (H=7)
16PROJ-Tremblay4140.11.71203.24.94.1 (H=4)4.9 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom9420.22.0140. (H=14)9.4 (H=24)

Spencer Ware (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ NE31511021.0-900.
15vs DEN27726022.0903.
16PROJ-Dodds5190.11.2803. (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay4140.11.1802. (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom5180. (H=9)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.3)9 (-3.7)6 (-3.5)10 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.2)24 (+5.9)25 (+5.4)25 (+7.0)
12Golden Tate50733310009.312.310.812.3
12Darius Slayton51746700006.710.78.710.7
13Kenny Golladay7354158100021.825.823.828.8
13Marvin Jones736340100010.013.011.513.0
14Amari Cooper578683100014.320.317.320.3
14Michael Gallup58106109000010.916.913.919.9
15Davante Adams55137103100016.323.319.826.3
15Jake Kumerow11114900004.

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7900)

13vs OAK5485.05501-405.110.17.610.1
14@ NE7186.062028071310.013.0
15vs DEN5775.067211018.823.821.323.8
16PROJ-Dodds5.5800.615012.117.614.9 (H=26)17.6 (H=36)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.8810.614012.117.915.0 (H=26)17.9 (H=37)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0680.7000111613.5 (H=22)16.0 (H=30)

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4700)

13vs OAK4130.000000000.00.0
14@ NE7184.0500000597.09.0
15vs DEN5243.04900004.
16PROJ-Dodds3.5460.30006.49.98.2 (H=14)9.9 (H=22)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.4450.30106.49.88.1 (H=13)9.8 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0440.30006.29.27.7 (H=12)9.2 (H=19)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

13vs OAK3800.000000000.00.0
14@ NE6221.01200001.
15vs DEN3832.02100002.
16PROJ-Dodds1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=7)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=6)
16PROJ-Bloom1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Mecole Hardman (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

13vs OAK2600.0001900.
14@ NE1411.048100010.811.811.311.8
15vs DEN1421.0100000121.52.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.3210.10002.743.5 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.0160.10102.33.32.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0410.4170. (H=16)9.9 (H=27)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)23 (+1.1)20 (+0.4)22 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.4)14 (-0.7)13 (-1.4)14 (-0.9)
12Kaden Smith59651717.712.710.212.7
13T.J. Hockenson431161801.
14Blake Jarwin22765005.
15Marcedes Lewis3211600.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7000)

13vs OAK6195.090091411.514.0
14@ NE7797.0660132014.519.0
15vs DEN621311.0142014.225.219.728.2
16PROJ-Dodds6.2760.41016.213.1 (H=22)16.2 (H=35)
16PROJ-Tremblay6.2760.41016.213.1 (H=22)16.2 (H=35)
16PROJ-Bloom7.0830.511.318.314.8 (H=28)18.3 (H=43)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-1.7)5T (-1.7)3 (-2.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.1)5 (-2.1)3 (-2.9) (+0.0)
12Aldrick Rosas0222222.02.0
13Matt Prater2222888.08.0
14Brett Maher1233666.06.0
15Mason Crosby0033333.03.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs OAK11558810.010.0
14@ NE3322111113.013.0
15vs DEN33009910.010.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.4)7 (-1.4)16T (-0.2)16T (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.4)17 (-0.4)16 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)
12New York Giants1933522000667.07.0
13Detroit Lions2441911000333.03.0
14Dallas Cowboys3138221100665.05.0
15Green Bay Packers13415321009913.013.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2900)

13vs OAK9.0033222101141420.020.0
14@ NE16.0027831000558.08.0
15vs DEN3.00251210004411.011.0
16PROJ-Dodds20.803502.41.10.700.5101010.0 (H=25)10.0 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay20.503562.410.800.510.310.310.3 (H=26)10.3 (H=39)

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.7)14 (-0.7)16 (-0.3)14 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.3)1 (-8.4)1 (-7.6)1 (-8.5)
13Derek Carr6020302221237013.813.811.611.6
14Tom Brady67193616911220013.513.511.811.8
15Drew Lock591840208012309.

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5800)

13@ DET6529383383144028.328.324.927.9
14vs DAL732331244311063135.535.533.133.1
15@ GB84295333412429021.621.618.321.3
16PROJ-Dodds23352371.41.13170.118.618.618.6 (H=42)18.6 (H=54)
16PROJ-Tremblay24372511.41.13150. (H=44)19.1 (H=57)
16PROJ-Bloom19301891.714260. (H=44)19.1 (H=57)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.4)30 (+4.9)30 (+4.5)30 (+5.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.8)6 (-4.7)5 (-4.6)9 (-4.3)
13Josh Jacobs34171040000010.410.410.413.4
13DeAndre Washington15250334404.
14James White416330752707.812.89.912.4
14Brandon Bolden2110100007.
15Phillip Lindsay23732020003.
15Royce Freeman325120441402.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5200)

13@ DET401675022.012114.716.715.716.7
14vs DAL472086010.0008.
15@ GB361439011.01004.
16PROJ-Dodds14600.31.71309.110.810.0 (H=17)10.8 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay14600.31.6120910.69.8 (H=16)10.6 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom14450. (H=11)8.5 (H=15)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5100)

13@ DET3639044.02603.
14vs DAL3437066.02403.
15@ GB558280107.05708.515.512.015.5
16PROJ-Dodds5220.15.0340.27.412.410.0 (H=19)12.5 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay5230.15.6370.27.813.410.7 (H=22)13.5 (H=35)
16PROJ-Bloom5170.15.0270.36.811.89.4 (H=17)11.9 (H=28)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.3)2 (-7.9)2 (-6.5)2 (-8.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-9.7)1 (-13.2)1 (-12.2)1 (-14.7)
13Zay Jones42321400001.
13Keelan Doss33111100001.
14Julian Edelman6612895118016.324.320.324.3
14Jakobi Meyers38313500003.
15Courtland Sutton541047900007.911.99.911.9
15Tim Patrick40732600002.

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6700)

13@ DET60128.086100014.622.618.622.6
14vs DAL7185.048200016.821.819.321.8
15@ GB80147.0125000012.519.516.022.5
16PROJ-Dodds5.3670.40009.114.411.8 (H=18)14.4 (H=30)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.5690.40009.314.812.1 (H=19)14.8 (H=31)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0710.700011.316.313.8 (H=24)16.3 (H=37)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5900)

13@ DET56139.01400000142318.526.0
14vs DAL6543.042100010.213.211.713.2
15@ GB79159.0118100017.826.822.329.8
16PROJ-Dodds3.9510.30006.910.88.9 (H=13)10.8 (H=20)
16PROJ-Tremblay4.1540.30107.311.49.4 (H=14)11.4 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0660.400091411.5 (H=20)14.0 (H=32)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4100)

13@ DET000.000000000.00.0
14vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
15@ GB000.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2.1240.20003.65.74.7 (H=5)5.7 (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.1260.20103.965.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ DET2700.000000000.00.0
14vs DAL1111.03301-502.
15@ GB3741.0601000.
16PROJ-Dodds0.9110.11402.132.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.790.115022.72.4 (H=2)2.8 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ DET5865.05600005.610.68.110.6
14vs DAL3330.000000000.00.0
15@ GB800.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.8100.10001.62.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.6)30 (+2.3)25T (+1.6)30 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.9)27 (+3.2)25 (+2.6)27 (+4.0)
13Darren Waller5597100010.017.013.520.0
14Matt LaCosse54421401.
15Noah Fant27325605.

Jesper Horsted (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ DET711.01817.
14vs DAL3444.03603.
15@ GB4131.0900.91.9-0.60.9
16PROJ-Dodds1.9190. (H=3)4.4 (H=10)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=4)4.6 (H=11)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

J.P. Holtz (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ DET2900.000000.00.0
14vs DAL3833.05605.
15@ GB3811.0-10-
16PROJ-Dodds1.1110. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.0)7 (-1.0)6 (-1.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.5)1 (-3.5)1 (-4.4) (+0.0)
13Daniel Carlson1201333.03.0
14Nick Folk1211444.04.0
15Brandon McManus1100333.03.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ DET1133666.06.0
14vs DAL1144777.07.0
15@ GB2211777.07.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.1)6 (-2.1)6 (-3.1)6 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.7)8 (-2.7)5 (-2.9)5 (-2.9)
13Oakland Raiders4025910000110.00.0
14New England Patriots2334611100557.07.0
15Denver Broncos2341931000555.05.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2300)

13@ DET20.0036421000445.05.0
14vs DAL24.0040820000222.02.0
15@ GB21.0029210000111.01.0
16PROJ-Dodds24.203732.30.80.600. (H=19)7.8 (H=30)
16PROJ-Tremblay24.503772.40.90.600. (H=20)8.1 (H=32)