Matchup Analysis: Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Texans 27, Buccaneers 23

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense24.4 (+1.6) (10)131 (+18) (7)245 (+9) (11)
Buccaneers Defense28.4 (+5.7) (31)73 (-38) (1)277 (+41) (30)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense29.7 (+7.0) (3)91 (-20) (28)309 (+73) (1)
Texans Defense23.6 (+0.8) (19)114 (+1) (20)266 (+29) (28)

Texans Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

The Texans have had a dependable rushing offense this season, ranking eighth with 130.9 rushing yards per game while maintaining an above-average 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. Carlos Hyde has claimed this backfield as his own, leading the team in rushing attempts in every game this season. He saw his heaviest workload yet in last week’s game, rushing 26 times for 104 yards and a touchdown--the third time he has crossed the 100-yard mark this year. Duke Johnson, on the other hand, saw just two carries last week and continues to be very minimally involved in this rushing offense. The Texans offensive line has been in flux recently due to injuries to the right side of this line along with very inconsistent play from left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who has been one of the most heavily penalized tackles in the league. The average-at-best play from this offensive line goes to show just how great of a season Hyde is having to have already crossed 1,000 rushing yards. Hyde did pop up on the injury report this week with an ankle problem, but he is expected to suit up regardless. Quarterback Deshaun Watson put up another 30+ yard rushing performance last week--his eighth of the season and second in as many games. Watson is now averaging 27 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns, adding just one more thing for defenses to worry about.

The Texans will come face to face with the league’s top run defense this week. Tampa Bay is allowing 15 fewer rushing yards per game than the next best team, ranking first in the category and second with 3.4 yards per attempt allowed. It has been over a month since running backs have combined for more than 40 rushing yards against his group, which includes games against Marlon Mack and Leonard Fournette--both of whom were held to just 38 rushing yards each. Only one running back has exceeded 75 rushing yards against this defense, and only four running backs have cracked 40 total rushing yards in a game. This defensive line is simply built to stop the run, while linebacker Lavonte David has been a machine to help plug any gaps this line might give up. The lowly Texans offensive line will have a very tough time in this one, and even a heavy workload may not help Carlos Hyde have a productive outing against this group.

Texans Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

The Texans passing offense was held to just 243 passing yards in last week’s game as Deshaun Watson threw a pair of interceptions in his second straight game, marking the fourth time this season in which he has thrown multiple interceptions. Watson had all his weapons active against a depleted Titans secondary last week, so the rough performance was really quite baffling. Kenny Stills came out of nowhere with two touchdowns last week despite seeing just three targets. Stills has been mostly absent from this passing offense, so he remains a tough option to rely upon. DeAndre Hopkins, on the other hand, has finished with over 115 receiving yards in back-to-back games and at least 80 yards in four of his last five outings. Hopkins saw his targets take a dip with Will Fuller back in the lineup, but he remains the clear-cut top option for this passing offense. Fuller made it back on the field for a full complement of snaps last week and immediately garnered a respectable seven targets. Fuller has seen at least seven targets in six of the eight games he has finished this season and will continue to pose a threat deep down the field to opposing secondaries.

Tampa Bay sports a pass-funnel defense that has been consistently exploited throughout the season, giving up the third-most passing yards per game (277) and fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Recent weeks have looked better on the stat sheet for the Buccaneers, but they faced pretty soft competition from the likes of David Blough, Jacoby Brissett, and Nick Foles/Gardner Minshew over their past three games--a span over which Tampa Bay actually forced more interceptions (5) than passing touchdowns allowed (4). This week should be another story, as Deshaun Watson is on another planet compared to that level of competition. If the Texans offensive line can figure out how to contain Shaquille Barrett, who leads the league in sacks with 16.5, then they should be in good shape as Barrett really is the only strong pass-rusher for the Buccaneers. Cornerback Jamel Dean has been quite good for a rookie in limited action this season, but neither he nor Carlton Davis he should be no match for these outside receivers from Houston. The Tampa Bay safeties have actually been the biggest weak spot for this secondary, which helps explain why they have given up 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards (T-2nd most). This certainly could be a shootout with the Buccaneers secondary on the losing end.

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Tampa Bay owns one of the worst rushing offenses in football, averaging just 91.4 rushing yards per game (27th) and 3.5 yards per carry (T-29th). The success of their passing offense has surprisingly done next to nothing to help these Buccaneers running backs, as they have combined to rush for more than 100 yards just twice this season and have rushed for 70 or fewer yards in three straight games. Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones have split carries all season long with a relatively even workload over the past couple of weeks. Jones has looked like the better back this season, but neither has been productive nor can they be trusted considering the shape of this offensive line they are running behind. Receiving a D+ grade in run-blocking from Footballguys offensive line specialist Matt Bitonti, the Buccaneers offensive line is one of the worst in football. Even with right guard Alex Cappa returning from an elbow injury, this group will continue to be challenged at the line of scrimmage as they bring down the upside and floor of this entire rushing offense.

The Texans had another tough game against the run last week, giving up 163 yards on the ground to the Titans. In their defense, however, 57 of those yards came on an off-the-wall run play to tight end Jonnu Smith. Overall, the Texans did a great job limiting Derrick Henry to 4.1 yards per attempt while keeping him out of the end zone. This defense has the pieces to play well against the run, as they did throughout the first 10 games of the season. Zach Cunningham is an outstanding run-defending linebacker, while D.J. Reader remains dominant on the interior of that defensive line. They are allowing plenty of scoring to opposing running backs though, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position over the past four weeks. With that said, however, the Buccaneers have one of the worst offensive lines in football. Given the key talented players on this Texans front seven, the Tampa Bay rushing offense can still be expected to struggle in this one.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

Jameis Winston was on fire last week as he had yet another 450+ yard and four-touchdown outing, this time just throwing one interception compared to three in Week 14. Winston could throw five interceptions and still be a fantasy darling with those kinds of stats, as he is lighting defenses on fire right now. Injuries could change the tun of this offense next week though. After losing Mike Evans in Week 14, the Buccaneers will now be without their other top wide receiver, Chris Godwin, in Week 15 after Godwin suffered a hamstring injury. The absence of both Evans and Godwin vacates a whopping 44 percent of the targets in this offense. Among wide receivers alone, Godwin and Evans represented 70 percent of the targets. Adding to the injury problems, receiver Scotty Miller was also placed on Injured Reserve this week. With that, the next man up appears to be Breshad Perriman, who finished with a huge 113-yard and three-touchdown game last week. Perriman looks more than capable of taking advantage of the volume to come his way, as he has now scored four touchdowns with 183 yards in the past two weeks. Tight end O.J. Howard could also be in store for more looks as Winston will need to throw to someone, and Howard saw a season-high eight targets in last week’s game while Cameron Brate was not far behind with seven targets going his way.

The Texans defense has had a tough time against the pass for most of this season. This defense has given up multiple passing touchdowns to every above-average passing offense they have faced(10 of 14 games), and this week they happen to square off against the top passing offense in football. Tampa Bay is averaging a league-leading 309 passing yards per game while the Texans have given up the fifth-most passing yards per game (266). While this defense has forced an interception in three straight games, they have also given up eight passing touchdowns and an average of 305 passing yards per game over that span--including over 300 yards to rookie quarterback Drew Lock in his first career NFL start. Despite a lack of elite talent at cornerback, this group has played reasonably well against wide receivers in recent weeks, allowing just two receivers to cross the 60-yard mark in the past five weeks. This cornerback group certainly gets a reprieve this week with both Evans and Godwin out, and it will be interesting to see if the likes of Breshad Perriman can break away from their reasonably efficient man coverage. In what could be a shootout, Jameis Winston will certainly put this Texans defense to the test.

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.6)28 (+3.6)26 (+3.2)28 (+4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.8)10 (-2.9)10 (-3.3)10 (-3.5)
12Matt Ryan7623462710118013.413.48.69.6
13Gardner Minshew4516271471128011.211.211.711.7
14Jacoby Brissett63193625120426023.223.222.622.6
15David Blough64244326002519012.912.910.310.3

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $7000)

13vs NE561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9
14vs DEN802850292126442333330.130.1
15@ TEN63192724322732021.421.418.918.9
16PROJ-Dodds23352651.815250.424.324.324.3 (H=58)24.3 (H=71)
16PROJ-Tremblay23352581.715230.423.423.423.4 (H=54)23.4 (H=67)
16PROJ-Bloom20332662.713110.225.425.425.4 (H=63)25.4 (H=77)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.4)3 (-6.0)3 (-6.7)3 (-6.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.9)9 (-4.3)4 (-5.9)7 (-5.4)
12Qadree Ollison23820111708.
12Brian Hill519140431302.
13Leonard Fournette65143801195309.118.113.618.1
13Devine Ozigbo000000000.
14Marlon Mack261338100009.
14Nyheim Hines35410542402.
15Wes Hills2310212221014.
15Ty Johnson29230541702.

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5000)

13vs NE211017011.0502.
14vs DEN411473032.0507.
15@ TEN4226104100.00016.416.416.419.4
16PROJ-Dodds16650.41.0609.510.510.0 (H=16)10.5 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay17660.40.7509.510.29.9 (H=16)10.2 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom18760.50.00010.610.610.6 (H=18)10.6 (H=23)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4100)

13vs NE38936065.0541152017.520.0
14vs DEN4215086.04004.510.57.510.5
15@ TEN2124032.01902.
16PROJ-Dodds4180.13.2280.15.897.4 (H=11)9.0 (H=21)
16PROJ-Tremblay4170.13.1250. (H=10)8.5 (H=19)
16PROJ-Bloom4190.13.0290. (H=15)10.2 (H=27)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.8)32 (+10.5)32 (+9.8)32 (+12.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+4.5)27 (+7.2)27 (+6.7)27 (+8.5)
12Calvin Ridley74146851115016.
12Russell Gage641087600007.615.611.615.6
13Dede Westbrook578560100012.017.016.519.0
13Chris Conley55545700005.
14Marcus Johnson5673105100016.519.518.022.5
14Zach Pascal639574100013.418.417.920.4
15Danny Amendola55138102000010.
15Chris Lacy42214800004.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8700, DraftKings: $8500)

13vs NE4785.064000010.715.713.115.6
14vs DEN80137.01201112019.226.222.729.2
15@ TEN6386.0119000011.917.914.920.9
16PROJ-Dodds6.8800.50001117.814.4 (H=23)17.8 (H=34)
16PROJ-Tremblay6.7780.500010.817.514.2 (H=22)17.5 (H=33)
16PROJ-Bloom6.0890.800013.719.716.7 (H=30)19.7 (H=41)

Will Fuller (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5900)

13vs NE4221.0800000.
14vs DEN000.000000000.00.0
15@ TEN5975.06100006.111.18.611.1
16PROJ-Dodds4.7650.40008.913.611.3 (H=21)13.6 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.0680.40009.214.211.7 (H=23)14.2 (H=33)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0640.6000101412.0 (H=24)14.0 (H=32)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4400)

13vs NE3843.061100012.115.113.615.1
14vs DEN7722.0800000.
15@ TEN3933.035200015.518.517.018.5
16PROJ-Dodds2.7370.20004.97.66.3 (H=8)7.6 (H=15)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.6350.20004.77.36.0 (H=8)7.3 (H=14)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0410.60007.710.79.2 (H=16)10.7 (H=27)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+1.7)29 (+2.2)29 (+2.0)29 (+2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.1)3 (-6.3)3 (-5.1)3 (-6.5)
12Jaeden Graham57215305.
13Nick OLeary4741600.
14Jack Doyle49622702.
15Jesse James38533103.

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13vs NE4232.02318.310.39.310.3
14vs DEN4542.0200.
15@ TEN5221.0200.
16PROJ-Dodds2.5260. (H=9)6.9 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.3220.346.35.2 (H=7)6.3 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0220.3465.0 (H=7)6.0 (H=14)

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2900)

13vs NE3111.01901.
14vs DEN5194.04904.
15@ TEN3822.0700.
16PROJ-Dodds2.3260. (H=6)6.1 (H=15)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.3250.23.764.9 (H=6)6.0 (H=15)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=3)4.7 (H=10)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+1.4)28 (+1.4)30 (+2.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.4)4 (-2.4)7T (-2.2) (+0.0)
12Younghoe Koo3311101011.011.0
13Josh Lambo1100335.05.0
14Adam Vinatieri0000000.00.0
15Matt Prater1122556.06.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs NE0044444.04.0
14vs DEN1133668.08.0
15@ TEN1133666.06.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+3.2)19T (+3.2)12T (+2.2)12T (+2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.9)19T (+0.9)12T (-1.1)12T (-1.1)
12Atlanta Falcons3544602000443.03.0
13Jacksonville Jaguars2831540100666.06.0
14Indianapolis Colts3854213101151511.011.0
15Detroit Lions3849521000443.03.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $3200)

13vs NE22.0044831000555.05.0
14vs DEN38.0039111000332.02.0
15@ TEN21.0043221000446.06.0
16PROJ-Dodds26.204012.41.30.500. (H=16)7.6 (H=20)
16PROJ-Tremblay27.004182.51.40.500. (H=16)7.7 (H=21)

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.0)31 (+5.0)30 (+3.9)31 (+5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.1)25 (+4.0)26 (+4.2)28 (+4.8)
12Jacoby Brissett67162512900420114.514.513.213.2
13Tom Brady87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14Drew Lock59222730931315028.028.024.927.9
15Ryan Tannehill67223627921310128.

Jameis Winston (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6900)

13@ JAX76213326800620015.415.410.711.7
14vs IND7233454564365142.342.337.740.7
15@ DET7128424584124038.338.333.736.7
16PROJ-Dodds24393121.91.54180. (H=58)24.1 (H=71)
16PROJ-Tremblay24393011.91.45200.123.823.823.8 (H=57)23.8 (H=70)
16PROJ-Bloom22332391.61.1250.118.418.418.4 (H=36)18.4 (H=44)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.7)24 (+3.1)24 (+2.6)24 (+3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+6.4)29 (+6.4)30 (+6.6)29 (+6.6)
12Jonathan Williams452610413317018.121.119.624.1
12Nyheim Hines229510321006.
13James White681479011898229.737.733.737.7
13Sony Michel151045000004.
14Phillip Lindsay3116511224011.513.512.513.5
14Royce Freeman27824022819.
15Derrick Henry392186010008.
15Dion Lewis243100111118.

Ronald Jones (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4400)

13@ JAX2168000.0000.
14vs IND271136054.02305.
15@ DET341123031.02604.
16PROJ-Dodds12460.42.7250.110.112.811.5 (H=24)12.8 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay12490.42.9260.110.513.412.0 (H=26)13.4 (H=40)
16PROJ-Bloom10350.22.0210. (H=14)9.4 (H=22)

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3900)

13@ JAX301744200.00016.416.418.418.4
14vs IND301134022.01905.
15@ DET211017022.0230465.06.0
16PROJ-Dodds11410.31.2806.77.97.3 (H=11)7.9 (H=18)
16PROJ-Tremblay10400.30.9706.57.47.0 (H=10)7.4 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom10310.32.0110. (H=12)8.6 (H=21)

Dare Ogunbowale (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

13@ JAX2310022.01201.
14vs IND2300055.04804.
15@ DET2113011.01301.
16PROJ-Dodds1502.11702.24.33.3 (H=3)4.4 (H=7)
16PROJ-Tremblay1402.0160243.1 (H=2)4.1 (H=6)
16PROJ-Bloom0003.0220. (H=5)5.9 (H=13)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.9)18 (+1.0)20 (+1.0)19 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-6.1)9 (-7.3)9 (-6.8)9 (-7.0)
12T.Y. Hilton25631800001.
12Chester Rogers41111200001.
13Julian Edelman8012610611-7015.921.918.924.9
13Jakobi Meyers61734600004.
14Tim Patrick37325000005.
14DaeSean Hamilton44423600003.
15A.J. Brown61138114100017.425.421.428.4
15Corey Davis51635700005.

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

13@ JAX4465.08700008.713.711.213.7
14vs IND6553.0701000131614.516.0
15@ DET6765.0113313029.634.632.137.6
16PROJ-Dodds4.8710.600010.715.513.1 (H=23)15.5 (H=38)
16PROJ-Tremblay4.7760.602011.416.113.8 (H=25)16.1 (H=41)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0690.50009.913.911.9 (H=19)13.9 (H=31)

Justin Watson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4600)

13@ JAX1110.000000000.00.0
14vs IND4385.059100011.916.914.416.9
15@ DET4222.01700001.
16PROJ-Dodds3.3450.30006.39.68.0 (H=12)9.6 (H=21)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.8540.30007.2119.1 (H=16)11.0 (H=27)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0360.20004.87.86.3 (H=8)7.8 (H=15)

Ishmael Hyman (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

15@ DET1311.0300000.
16PROJ-Dodds2.0290.10003.55.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.6380.200057.66.3 (H=9)7.6 (H=22)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+0.9)22 (+1.0)25 (+1.1)23 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.4)30 (+6.2)32 (+5.9)31 (+6.7)
12Eric Ebron29544404.
13Matt LaCosse53212402.
14Noah Fant2944113117.321.319.324.3
15Jonnu Smith545560011.716.714.216.7

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ JAX6365.06106.111.18.611.1
14vs IND6854.07307.311.39.311.3
15@ DET6684.04604.
16PROJ-Dodds3.4480.36.6108.3 (H=14)10.0 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.5470.36.5108.3 (H=14)10.0 (H=26)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0490.36.710.78.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=30)

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

13@ JAX2811.0500.
14vs IND2444.030191311.013.0
15@ DET3173.03303.
16PROJ-Dodds3.0310. (H=9)7.9 (H=20)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.0300. (H=9)7.8 (H=20)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0310. (H=11)8.9 (H=25)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.1)14T (-0.1)14T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-1.9)7T (-1.9)4T (-2.7) (+0.0)
12Adam Vinatieri1122555.05.0
13Kai Forbath1112444.04.0
14Brandon McManus1155888.08.0
15Ryan Succop0133333.03.0

Matt Gay (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ JAX2222888.08.0
14vs IND1155889.09.0
15@ DET1255889.09.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (-0.3)22T (-0.3)16T (-0.5)16T (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)22 (+1.6)16T (+0.1)16T (+0.1)
12Indianapolis Colts2039611000334.04.0
13New England Patriots2827630000332.02.0
14Denver Broncos2441432101212117.017.0
15Tennessee Titans2437412000555.05.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2300)

13@ JAX11.0024252201252523.023.0
14vs IND35.0030910100332.02.0
15@ DET17.0029522101141415.015.0
16PROJ-Dodds24.203632.510.700. (H=21)8.6 (H=36)
16PROJ-Tremblay26.003642.310.600. (H=18)7.7 (H=29)