Matchup Analysis: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Packers 20, Vikings 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense23.6 (+0.8) (14)106 (-5) (17)230 (-5) (17)
Vikings Defense18.5 (-4.3) (7)99 (-13) (8)240 (+4) (20)

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense27.0 (+4.2) (6)136 (+23) (4)237 (+0) (12)
Packers Defense20.2 (-2.5) (9)121 (+8) (24)250 (+14) (22)

Packers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

In the ever-evolving volume split between Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, it appears Jones is gaining a slight lead over the last three weeks as he has out-touched Williams 40 to 25. The Packers have typically ridden the hot hand and with the game that Jones had against the Redskins two weeks ago where he ran for 134 yards and a touchdown that earned him the majority of the carries in that game and the following. It remains to be seen what the Packers will do down the stretch if they get back to the near 50/50 split that we had seen earlier in the year or if that was to limit Jones’ workload to keep him fresh heading into the playoffs. The good news for the Packers is that their offensive line has come together to be one of the better offensive lines in the league as Matt Bitonti has them as the sixth-best offensive line and their tackles are two of the best in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari.

The Vikings run defense has been a unit that has been up and down this season as they completely shut down the Chargers last week holding the Chargers to just 62 yards rushing in a game that they blew out the Chargers. On the other hand, three weeks ago the Seahawks ran all over them as they ran for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. Overall, this has been a team that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and are allowing just 4.1 yards-per-carry to the position. The one weakness on this team is Anthony Barr who has struggled mightily against the run and has largely been covered up by how dominant Eric Kendricks has been as he has been one of the best linebackers in football this season. This still is a defense that it is tough to consistently run against as they have elite talent at all three levels with Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris at the safety position.

Packers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

The Packers' passing offense has been one of the bigger disappointments of the season. Despite an 11-3 record, Aaron Rodgers is having one of the worst seasons of his career as he has not thrown for over 243 yards in his last six games. It is not all Rodgers fault however as he is getting very little support from the wide receivers as evidenced by Marquez Valdes-Scantling who had a critical drop on the first play from scrimmage which led to Scantling seeing just six snaps the rest of the game after that. Opposite of Davante Adams, the Packers have been playing Geronimo Allison and Allen Lazard over 50% of the snaps, but neither receiver has had any production as they aren’t being targeted in this offense with Lazard having no more than three targets over his last four games and Allison has not had over 21 yards in his last seven games. This is an offense that has relied on their running game and a weak schedule over the last six weeks to keep them firmly in the playoff hunt, but will need to figure out their passing attack quickly as they face better competition.

The Vikings secondary quickly has fallen apart. Once thought of as an elite defense, it is a unit that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and over the last five games, they have allowed nine wide receivers to gain 70 yards or more. Xavier Rhodes has fallen off dramatically this season which has led him to a part-time role as he has seen less than 50% of the snaps over the last two weeks as he is rotating with Holton Hill and Mike Hughes as the Vikings look to desperately find some combination that works. The key to beating the Vikings is just to minimize the pass rush as they do feature two of the best in Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter which will be the key matchup this week as they face off against two great tackles in Bulaga and Bakhtiari, so if the pass rush is unable to impact Rodgers, expect a big game against the weak secondary.

Vikings Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Vikings rushing attack has carried them for most of the year but is a concern heading into the playoff run as Alexander Mattison is questionable with a high ankle sprain and the big concern is Dalvin Cook who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Cook left last week, and with the team appearing to have a playoff spot locked up is doubtful per Jene Bramel’s Monday update this week. If both players were to miss, the Vikings would turn to Mike Boone to be the primary ball carrier which the good news is that they have one of the better third-string running backs in football as Boone looked solid in his appearance last week with 13 carries for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is a team and a game plan that will continue to be a run-heavy offense, so either Boone or Mattison, if he plays, could be in for a big week this week from a volume perspective running behind an offensive line that along with Kyle Rudolph is built to run the ball.

Green Bay’s run defense is one that one the year has been one that is up-and-down as they have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 4.8 yards-per-carry on the season. The biggest issue for Green Bay has been that they primarily play a dime defense to stop the pass, but Blake Martinez has found himself out of position at times this year which has led to big gains up the middle. The strength of this defense has been their defensive tackles as the combination of Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark is one of the best run-stopping units in football which when they are on we have seen how good this defense can particularly against bad rushing offenses they shut down the Bears last week holding David Montgomery to 39 yards on 14 carries. The Packers did struggle mightily against the Vikings the first time these two teams met as Dalvin Cook ran all over the Packers for 154 yards with Alexander Mattison picking up an additional 25 yards.

Vikings Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Kirk Cousins is quietly having a tremendous season. Even with no Adam Thielen, Cousins is completing 70.5% of his passes and has thrown 25 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions as he has been a nice complement to the run-heavy offense. The Vikings got back Adam Thielen last week and while he was relatively quiet, he was on the field for just 51% of the plays as he is likely going to ease back into the rotation. One would expect that this is the game that the Vikings are going to gear up for as they have to win to have any chance at winning the division. When Thielen is healthy, this is one of the best duos of receivers in football as Thielen and Stefon Diggs complement each other and along with the running game of Minnesota make it a very difficult offense to game plan for.

Green Bay’s secondary like most young secondaries has been up and down for most of the season. This is a unit that has its flaws particularly at the corner position as outside of Jaire Alexander, Kevin King has struggled on the outside along with Tramon Williams has been inconsistent for most of the season. Where the Packers have struggled significantly is against the tight end position as Blake Martinez has been awful in coverage this season. Since Week 7, the Packers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. This is a unit that is firmly in the middle of the pack as while they have their flaws, they have only allowed two quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards on the year, but they have benefitted from a fairly easy schedule as they have faced just one quarterback inside the top-10 in passing yards this season, they did shut down the Vikings earlier this season holding Kirk Cousins to just 230 yards.

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.6)10 (-1.7)10 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-4.3)7 (-4.4)5 (-4.8)7 (-4.4)
13Russell Wilson75213124021413020.320.317.917.9
14David Blough7124402051200012.312.310.210.2
15Philip Rivers6228393071300016.416.411.315.3

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6200)

13@ NYG64213324340324030.630.628.128.1
14vs WAS62182819510516015.415.411.412.4
15vs CHI59163320310323016.516.514.414.4
16PROJ-Dodds23352511.30.63140. (H=41)19.1 (H=53)
16PROJ-Tremblay24372551.30.83130.1191919.0 (H=41)19.0 (H=52)
16PROJ-Bloom19282171.80.53160.119.719.719.7 (H=43)19.7 (H=56)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)8 (-2.8)9 (-2.7)9 (-2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+4.3)30 (+6.7)27 (+4.4)28 (+6.5)
13Rashaad Penny35157415433122.726.724.726.7
13Chris Carson39231021217016.917.917.420.9
14Bo Scarbrough341965031507.
14J.D. McKissic16120441601.
15Austin Ekeler307190756208.113.110.613.1
15Melvin Gordon257280753606.411.44.99.4

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7400)

13@ NYG391118064.01303.
14vs WAS3616134176.058025.
15vs CHI351351200.00017.
16PROJ-Dodds12550.53.4260.111.715.113.4 (H=22)15.1 (H=29)
16PROJ-Tremblay12500.53.2260.111.214.412.8 (H=20)14.4 (H=27)
16PROJ-Bloom14580.72.0150. (H=21)14.1 (H=26)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3900)

13@ NYG281041044.02606.710.78.710.7
14vs WAS26724010.0002.
15vs CHI24826011.0703.
16PROJ-Dodds8330.23.0200.27.710.79.2 (H=18)10.7 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay8330.23.3220.27.911.29.6 (H=19)11.2 (H=33)
16PROJ-Bloom8270. (H=7)6.1 (H=11)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.0)26 (+4.9)25 (+3.5)24 (+4.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.7)19 (+0.4)17 (-0.9)15 (-1.1)
13David Moore104265100012.514.513.514.5
13DK Metcalf60767500007.513.58.512.5
14Kenny Golladay678658100011.817.814.817.8
14Marvin Jones71733800003.
15Mike Williams529471100013.
15Keenan Allen581099900009.918.914.418.9

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $7800)

13@ NYG52106.064200018.424.421.424.4
14vs WAS5264.04100004.
15vs CHI55137.0103100016.323.319.826.3
16PROJ-Dodds6.3790.400010.316.613.5 (H=22)16.6 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay6.7850.400010.917.614.3 (H=24)17.6 (H=36)
16PROJ-Bloom6.0810.800012.918.915.9 (H=29)18.9 (H=41)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

13@ NYG3733.0103100016.319.317.822.3
14vs WAS3432.01900001.
15vs CHI4632.01400001.
16PROJ-Dodds2.3300.10003.65.94.8 (H=5)5.9 (H=12)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.3310.10203.96.25.1 (H=6)6.2 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0330.20004.56.55.5 (H=7)6.5 (H=14)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

13@ NYG4232.0200000243.04.0
14vs WAS3611.01100001.
15vs CHI3242.01900001.
16PROJ-Dodds2.0210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.8190.10002.54.33.4 (H=3)4.3 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0190.10002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=8)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ NYG1820.000000000.00.0
14vs WAS1000.000000000.00.0
15vs CHI710.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.1170.10002.33.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.8130.10001.92.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom1.0150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ NYG1400.000000000.00.0
14vs WAS700.000000000.00.0
15vs CHI1111.04900004.
16PROJ-Dodds0.71100001.11.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.6900000.91.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0350.10004.16.15.1 (H=7)6.1 (H=15)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.6)14 (-0.5)7 (-1.3)13T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.5)5 (-4.2)4 (-4.4)5 (-4.8)
13Jacob Hollister61864404.410.47.410.4
14Jesse James38212302.
15Hunter Henry43222902.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3200)

13@ NYG2811.01601.
14vs WAS3253.04904.
15vs CHI2541.000010.51.0
16PROJ-Dodds2.4260. (H=6)6.2 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.2240. (H=5)5.8 (H=13)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ NYG2010.000000.00.0
14vs WAS2011.01217.
15vs CHI921.0500.
16PROJ-Dodds0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.1110. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ NYG2721.0116.
14vs WAS3911.0500.
15vs CHI3211.0600.
16PROJ-Dodds0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom1. (H=0)1.9 (H=2)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (-0.2)13T (-0.2)13 (-0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.9)13 (-0.9)11 (-1.4) (+0.0)
13Jason Myers3344131313.013.0
14Matt Prater0111111.01.0
15Mike Badgley1111445.05.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ NYG1144778.08.0
14vs WAS2222888.08.0
15vs CHI0033333.03.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-2.6)3T (-2.6)4 (-3.5)4 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.4)3 (-3.4)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)
13Seattle Seahawks3035401200666.06.0
14Detroit Lions2035410000112.02.0
15Los Angeles Chargers3934401000221.01.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2600)

13@ NYG13.00335030006610.010.0
14vs WAS15.0026241000667.07.0
15vs CHI13.00415321009913.013.0
16PROJ-Dodds24.803552.10.90.600. (H=15)7.6 (H=25)
16PROJ-Tremblay25.5036420.80.600.4777.0 (H=13)7.0 (H=22)

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-2.6)7 (-2.6)7 (-3.0)6 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.8)9 (-3.9)9 (-3.6)9 (-3.7)
12Jimmy Garoppolo4814202532021020.820.818.218.2
13Daniel Jones6720372401356013.613.611.211.2
14Dwayne Haskins651627170111-1011.411.49.79.7
15Mitchell Trubisky84295333412429021.621.618.321.3

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $5800)

13@ SEA5522382762100020.820.818.018.0
14vs DET732430242101-10161613.613.6
15@ LAC62192520711314014.814.812.712.7
16PROJ-Dodds22312521.60.7250.119.419.419.4 (H=43)19.4 (H=58)
16PROJ-Tremblay21312451.50.8260.118.618.618.6 (H=40)18.6 (H=54)
16PROJ-Bloom19272001.70.8110.116.716.716.7 (H=33)16.7 (H=45)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.0)25 (+3.4)25 (+3.3)25 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.0)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.3)18 (-0.5)
12Raheem Mostert1464513122012.713.713.213.7
12Tevin Coleman29113914210010.912.911.912.9
13Saquon Barkley64198307332011.514.513.014.5
13Javorius Allen314000000.
14Adrian Peterson2820761000013.613.613.613.6
14Chris Thompson26000874304.311.37.811.3
15Tarik Cohen5582801075708.515.512.015.5
15David Montgomery3614390111004.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $8100)

13@ SEA24929143.035012.415.411.914.4
14vs DET341862122.013013.515.514.515.5
15@ LAC28927033.01604.
16PROJ-Dodds15670.53.6320.113.517.115.3 (H=26)17.1 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay17760.73.8350.115.919.717.8 (H=34)19.7 (H=43)
16PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Mike Boone (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4900)

13@ SEA200000.000000.00.0
14vs DET6513000.0001.
15@ LAC211356200.00017.617.617.617.6
16PROJ-Dodds5200.21.0603.84.84.3 (H=4)4.8 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay3120.10.1101.922.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom18810.72.0110.1141615.0 (H=36)16.0 (H=49)

Alexander Mattison (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5400)

13@ SEA27422054.05107.311.39.311.3
14vs DET271446022.01806.
15@ LAC000000.000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds5230.10.9603.54.44.0 (H=3)4.4 (H=4)
16PROJ-Tremblay5240.10.6503.54.13.8 (H=3)4.1 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ameer Abdullah (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ SEA300000.000000.00.0
14vs DET600011.0200.
15@ LAC15525020.0002.
16PROJ-Dodds2900.8601.52.32.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay1300.6500.81.41.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom8310.11.0404.15.14.7 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)

C.J. Ham (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ SEA1100022.04204.
14vs DET3010011.02502.
15@ LAC3015033.01301.
16PROJ-Dodds1301.2901.22.41.8 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
16PROJ-Tremblay0101.31101.22.51.8 (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.3)10 (-2.9)14T (-2.2)13 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.8)15 (-1.3)14 (-1.1)16 (-1.0)
12Deebo Samuel352250100011.
12Kendrick Bourne24222700002.
13Sterling Shepard577340100010.013.011.513.0
13Darius Slayton63964400004.410.47.410.4
14Terry McLaurin617457100011.715.713.715.7
14Steven Sims0744000004.
15Anthony Miller79159118100017.826.822.329.8
15Allen Robinson80147125000012.519.516.022.5

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6800)

13@ SEA5294.025012705.
14vs DET5496.09200009.
15@ LAC4664.076014081210.012.0
16PROJ-Dodds4.1660.30008.412.510.5 (H=15)12.5 (H=23)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.8640.30208.412.210.3 (H=14)12.2 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=21)15.1 (H=32)

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5700)

13@ SEA000.000000000.00.0
14vs DET000.000000000.00.0
15@ LAC3333.0270130364.56.0
16PROJ-Dodds4.1570.40008.112.210.2 (H=15)12.2 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.7540.40107.911.69.8 (H=14)11.6 (H=24)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0560.50008.613.611.1 (H=18)13.6 (H=32)

Olabisi Johnson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3400)

13@ SEA3131.0100000.
14vs DET5211.0910006.
15@ LAC2611.01901602.
16PROJ-Dodds1.4170.10002.33.73.0 (H=2)3.7 (H=5)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.3160.10102.33.63.0 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom1.060.10001.22.21.7 (H=0)2.2 (H=2)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.0)25 (+1.4)24 (+1.0)25 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.8)11T (-2.1)9 (-1.8)13 (-1.8)
12George Kittle3866129118.924.921.927.9
13Kaden Smith61867007.
14Hale Hentges2100000.
15Jesper Horsted4131900.91.9-0.60.9

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3900)

13@ SEA4764.0501111513.015.0
14vs DET4722.01101.
15@ LAC3533.04804.
16PROJ-Dodds2.9290. (H=9)7.6 (H=17)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.3230. (H=7)6.4 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=10)7.9 (H=18)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $2800)

13@ SEA4731.0600.
14vs DET5143.02102.
15@ LAC4232.0816.
16PROJ-Dodds2.5240. (H=6)6.1 (H=16)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=4)5.2 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=4)5.3 (H=12)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-0.7)9 (-0.7)4T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.6)3 (-2.6)4 (-2.7) (+0.0)
12Robbie Gould0000000.00.0
13Aldrick Rosas2211778.08.0
14Dustin Hopkins1101335.05.0
15Eddy Pineiro2211777.07.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ SEA1134667.07.0
14vs DET22228810.010.0
15@ LAC4434151516.016.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.1)5T (-3.1)7T (-3.3)7T (-3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.9)5T (-2.9)7 (-2.4)7 (-2.4)
12San Francisco 49ers8198501007711.011.0
13New York Giants313220000000-1.0-1.0
14Washington Redskins2034140100667.07.0
15Chicago Bears2129210000111.01.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2700)

13@ SEA37.004442110112128.08.0
14vs DET7.00231520009913.013.0
15@ LAC10.0034533401292927.027.0
16PROJ-Dodds19.703482.50.80.700. (H=24)9.7 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay21.003532.40.80.700. (H=21)8.8 (H=32)