Matchup Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bengals 24, Dolphins 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense15.1 (-7.7) (32)91 (-20) (27)221 (-14) (22)
Dolphins Defense31.1 (+8.3) (32)141 (+28) (31)258 (+22) (24)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense17.2 (-5.5) (29)71 (-41) (32)219 (-16) (23)
Bengals Defense25.6 (+2.9) (24)158 (+45) (32)234 (-1) (15)

Bengals Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Joe Mixon has finally been tasked with motoring the Bengals’ anemic offense, and he’s responding beautifully. Coach Zac Taylor now knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that he presides over one of football’s worst passing games, so he’s handed his dynamic young runner the reins. Mixon has averaged 22 rushes for 101 yards since the Week 9 bye, with 3 100-yard performances and 3 touchdowns on the ground. He’s had success despite a bottom-tier front line and a handful of tough matchups, including the Ravens (114), Steelers (79), and the surprisingly-tough Raiders (86). If nothing else, he’s a weekly volume stud as the Bengals hide Andy Dalton’s arm. And he’s clearly gifted enough to maximize that opportunity, especially against the Dolphins’ soft front seven. Trending red-hot for the fantasy playoffs, Mixon seems set up for his best outlook of the season.

The 3-11 Dolphins often trail and face a lot of rushing volume, but they don’t do themselves any favors. They’re giving up the league’s second-most yards per game and sit in the bottom third in touchdowns. For much of the year, they’ve served as a slump-busting matchup for runners stuck in a rut. Week 15 was no exception, with Saquon Barkley racking up 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, sparking a moribund Giants offense to a win. Over the past 6 weeks, opposing lead backs have churned out 4.6 yards per rush and 87 a game. Like the rest of the team, the Miami run defense is in the midst of a full-on rebuild, and much of this unit likely isn’t part of the team’s future core. Linebacker Raekwon McMillan has broken out as an off-ball run-stopper, but he was put on injured reserve this week, and there’s little talent elsewhere. Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen will likely dominate snaps, and they’ve been horrendous against the run. And there’s no real run-stuffing presence up front to tie up blockers for them. All around, this is a unit NFL coordinators know to target early and often - and a green-light unit for fantasy purposes.

Bengals Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Andy Dalton is likely nearing the end of his Bengals tenure. And while he presents an upgrade on overmatched rookie Ryan Finley, he’s simply not capable of turning around this snakebitten unit. He’s posted just 6.2 yards per attempt (242 a game) and 7 touchdowns over his last 9 appearances. But he’s also lacked weapons, as usual, with A.J. Green out all year and most of his other playmakers in and out of the lineup. Last week, even surviving No. 1 option Tyler Boyd was erased by the Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore, leaving Dalton nowhere to go during a brutal second half. Week 16 brings much less resistance against the porous Dolphins, but this attack just can’t be trusted. Dalton is throwing enough to be fantasy-relevant, but producing very little efficiency, and he hasn’t had a multi-touchdown day since Week 5. Boyd always offers some fantasy appeal based on volume alone - he’s blossomed into one of the league’s more dynamic slot targets - but offers little ceiling in this offense. Beyond him, it’s a fantasy wasteland of little-known, little-used bodies. Even in a cherry matchup, only Boyd makes any dent whatsoever.

The Dolphins continue to flail badly on pass defense, and they’re still one of fantasy’s most targetable matchups. Over the past 5 weeks they’ve faced a less-than-imposing set of opposing passers - Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Eli Manning - but given up 8.1 yards per attempt and 289 a game, with 13 touchdowns. They’ve allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of those games, including both slot specialists (Jarvis Landry, Sterling Shepard) and downfield threats (John Brown, Robby Anderson). The Dolphins’ secondary has been gutted in-season, with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick traded and cornerback Xavien Howard put on injured reserve, and its patchwork nature is obvious. Names like Eric Rowe, Nik Needham, and Jomal Wiltz have played like replacement-level talents at cornerback, while Bobby McCain has long been a liability at free safety. They get little help from the pass rush, which ranks 25th in pressure rate and 31st in sacks. The Cincinnati pass game isn’t one to take advantage of much, but could hardly ask for a better opportunity to succeed for a week.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

It speaks volumes that Patrick Laird’s production over the past 2 weeks - 94 touchdown-less yards at 3.5 per carry - has actually been a step forward for the Miami ground game. But such is life for perhaps the weakest rushing attack in recent NFL memory. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins sit dead-last across the league per game (71 yards) and second-worst per attempt (3.4), and they haven’t had a 70-yard rusher all season. Laird is the marginal featured back, having taken 66% of team snaps and 68% of running back carries over the past 2 weeks. But there’s no reason to expect fantasy-relevant production. Laird is a replacement-level rookie, and he operates behind one of the league’s worst run-blocking lines. The team has shaken up the line in recent weeks, but it didn’t look any stronger last Sunday. Even in a favorable matchup with the Bengals, it’s hard to envision a fantasy team that (a) is still alive in its postseason and (b) could use Laird’s rock-bottom production in Week 16.

The Bengals still trot out one of football’s most beatable run defenses - and arguably the most targetable fantasy matchups. Dating back to Week 5, eight of their 10 opponents have produced a runner with 85+ yards, with 5 of those backs topping 100. Even struggling runners like Sony Michel, David Johnson, and Leonard Fournette have reached or neared season-high totals in this matchup. There’s actually a stout line in place here, with nose tackle Andrew Billings an underappreciated force against the run and Carlos Dunlap still dominant on the edge. But this unit is sorely in need of a full makeover on the second level. There probably isn’t a starting-caliber linebacker on roster; top guys Nick Vigil and Gremaine Pratt are among 2019’s worst-rated run-stoppers. They lack athleticism in pursuit, and they’re unreliable tacklers when they do find themselves in position. Safeties Jessie Bates and Shawn Williams provide little help in the box, and it’s altogether easy for runners to turn three-yard lurches into chunk gains.

Dolphins Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

Against all odds, Ryan Fitzpatrick has breathed some degree of life into the Dolphins’ punchless pass game. Thanks mostly to generous volume () and the exploits of wideout DeVante Parker, he’s topped 275 yards in 5 of 9 starts since moving back into the lineup, with 5 multi-touchdown games. Those aren’t exactly fantasy-winning numbers, but if nothing else, Fitzpatrick has dependably targeted Parker and allowed the playmaker to succeed in ways Josh Rosen (and several others over the years) couldn’t. On pace for his first 1,000-yard season - it would also his first of 16 games - Parker is averaging a line of 5 for 77 in full games with Fitzpatrick. The team rewarded him with an extension, with $21.5 million guaranteed, just last week, and he’s the clear-cut face of this attack. Albert Wilson and tight end Mike Gesicki are next in line for attention, but they’re low-impact guys. Wilson topped 35 yards for the first time just last week, and Gesicki has produced just 6.2 yards per target over his past 9 games. If there’s to be any fantasy utility from here, it’ll be from Parker, who should feast in both volume and efficiency in this plum matchup.

The Bengals have long fielded one of football’s weakest pass defenses. It’s improved of late on the stat sheet, giving up just 6.0 yards per attempt and 191 a game over the past 4 weeks. But the Bengals’ competition over that span wasn’t exactly robust, and Tom Brady spent much of Week 15 throwing high and past open receivers. Under typical circumstances, this unit can still be beaten down the field. They’ve allowed big recent plays and stat lines to Robby Anderson (101 yards), James Washington (98 and a touchdown), Jarvis Landry (76), and Tyrell Williams (82). Cornerbacks William Jackson and Darqueze Dennard have struggled mightily in outside coverage, while B.W. Webb has graded among the league’s worst in the slot. The linebackers and safeties provide little help, which allows competent passers to find mismatches and holes up and down the field. Overall, despite recent numbers, this remains a matchup to target. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is too scattershot to take advantage, there’s a ton of fantasy potential for top wideout DeVante Parker against this secondary.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.4)25 (+3.4)29 (+3.9)26 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.9)23 (+2.9)23 (+3.2)24 (+3.8)
12Baker Mayfield7524343273125027.927.924.627.6
13Carson Wentz7128463103100026.526.525.428.4
14Sam Darnold7120362702133020.820.818.118.1
15Eli Manning6620282832300019.219.216.316.3

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5200)

13vs NYJ662237243105-4015.815.813.313.3
14@ CLE75223826201311013.213.210.610.6
15vs NE661731151142107.
16PROJ-Dodds22362491.51.1280.219.319.319.3 (H=47)19.3 (H=64)
16PROJ-Tremblay22362531.51.1270.219.419.419.4 (H=47)19.4 (H=65)
16PROJ-Bloom20312131.40.7250.116.616.616.6 (H=36)16.6 (H=49)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.3)26 (+3.5)28 (+4.1)28 (+4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.5)28 (+6.0)29 (+6.5)30 (+7.0)
12Nick Chubb432110614358022.425.423.928.4
12Kareem Hunt438371329010.612.611.612.6
13Miles Sanders62178305522116.521.519.021.5
13Jay Ajayi929000000.
14Bilal Powell5619740321408.810.89.810.8
14Ty Montgomery239310333006.
15Saquon Barkley542411225431026.330.328.333.3
15Javorius Allen14828100008.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6600)

13vs NYJ521944144.0260131715.017.0
14@ CLE4423146143.040024.627.626.130.6
15vs NE4425136033.020015.618.617.121.6
16PROJ-Dodds18740.42.3190.112.314.613.5 (H=23)14.6 (H=31)
16PROJ-Tremblay18730.42.2170.11214.213.1 (H=22)14.2 (H=30)
16PROJ-Bloom20940.53.0210. (H=33)18.1 (H=45)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4100)

13vs NYJ1314021.0801.
14@ CLE30415032.03104.
15vs NE22527022.01003.
16PROJ-Dodds3130.12.11703.65.74.7 (H=6)5.7 (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay2100.12.01603.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=8)
16PROJ-Bloom41603.0260. (H=10)7.8 (H=17)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.8)30 (+5.5)31 (+5.9)29 (+6.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+12.8)32 (+15.3)32 (+14.4)32 (+17.6)
12Jarvis Landry711310148200026.836.831.839.8
12Odell Beckham758684100014.420.417.420.4
13Alshon Jeffery64169137100019.728.724.231.7
13J.J. Arcega-Whiteside27211510007.
14Robby Anderson66117116114018.025.021.528.0
14Demaryius Thomas37422810008.810.89.810.8
15Golden Tate384151100011.112.111.612.1
15Sterling Shepard54119111000011.120.115.623.1

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5800)

13vs NYJ55105.059100011.916.914.416.9
14@ CLE5665.07501708.213.210.713.2
15vs NE5773.02600002.
16PROJ-Dodds5.1600.30007.812.910.4 (H=18)12.9 (H=28)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.1600.31308.113.210.7 (H=19)13.2 (H=30)
16PROJ-Bloom6.0740.500010.416.413.4 (H=28)16.4 (H=43)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3300)

13vs NYJ4222.02100002.
14@ CLE6075.04500005.810.88.010.5
15vs NE5051.0600000.61.6-0.90.6
16PROJ-Dodds3.9500.30006.810.78.8 (H=16)10.8 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay4.4590.30007.712.110.0 (H=21)12.2 (H=46)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0230.20003.55.54.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=11)

John Ross (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4200)

14@ CLE3832.02800002.
15vs NE2532.02400002.
16PROJ-Dodds3.3500.30006.810.18.5 (H=15)10.1 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.7560.30007.411.19.3 (H=18)11.1 (H=30)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=12)8.9 (H=20)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.7)13 (-0.7)13 (-0.7)13T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.2)7 (-3.4)7 (-3.2)7 (-3.6)
12Demetrius Harris51222002.
13Dallas Goedert40766606.612.69.612.6
14Ryan Griffin311800.
15Kaden Smith68333803.

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

13vs NYJ2521.01201.
14@ CLE3544.04904.
15vs NE3653.04404.
16PROJ-Dodds2.3240. (H=6)5.9 (H=13)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.0190. (H=4)5.1 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0280.2475.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=18)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs NYJ4765.05105.110.17.610.1
14@ CLE4521.0400.
15vs NE4621.0800.
16PROJ-Dodds1.8180. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.9190. (H=3)4.4 (H=10)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+2.4)27T (+2.4)32 (+2.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.1)27 (+2.1)27T (+2.6) (+0.0)
12Austin Seibert2355111112.012.0
13Jake Elliott3422111113.013.0
14Sam Ficken3312101012.012.0
15Aldrick Rosas0045444.04.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs NYJ2322889.09.0
14@ CLE4411131315.015.0
15vs NE2211778.08.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (+2.1)15T (+2.1)30 (+3.5)30 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.9)15 (-0.9)10 (-1.6)10 (-1.6)
12Cleveland Browns2428442000888.08.0
13Philadelphia Eagles3740931000551.01.0
14New York Jets2136221000444.04.0
15New York Giants2038430100558.08.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2900)

13vs NYJ6.00271400004413.013.0
14@ CLE27.0033312000555.05.0
15vs NE34.0029120000221.01.0
16PROJ-Dodds24.403592.41.10.500. (H=20)8.3 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay24.253602.31.10.600. (H=20)8.4 (H=27)

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.4)23 (+1.3)24 (+2.1)23 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.7)3 (-6.8)3 (-5.9)3 (-6.8)
12Devlin Hodges345111181031010.
13Sam Darnold7428482390029012.912.910.510.5
14Baker Mayfield55112419202213114.914.913.013.0
15Tom Brady651529128202-2014.214.212.912.9

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

13vs PHI7227393653132029.529.527.830.8
14@ NYJ72213724501765017.817.815.315.3
15@ NYG71234127920433025.325.320.521.5
16PROJ-Dodds23372671.71.24180.2222222.0 (H=57)22.0 (H=70)
16PROJ-Tremblay22362611.71.14180.221.821.821.8 (H=56)21.8 (H=69)
16PROJ-Bloom23352391.614260.120.620.620.6 (H=50)20.6 (H=62)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.4)28 (+4.0)27 (+4.0)27 (+4.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+3.1)23 (+2.9)22 (+3.2)22 (+3.1)
12Benny Snell3621980115010.311.310.811.3
12Kerrith Whyte7643000004.
13LeVeon Bell6310320543506.710.78.710.7
13Bilal Powell11414022401.
14Kareem Hunt3592813240012.814.813.814.8
14Nick Chubb391510601111011.712.712.215.7
15James White2531304349112.215.213.715.2
15Rex Burkhead206531226011.913.912.913.9

Patrick Laird (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4600)

13vs PHI43105154.043010.814.814.816.8
14@ NYJ591548054.03808.612.610.612.6
15@ NYG341246052.0805.
16PROJ-Dodds11460.33.7320.110.213.912.1 (H=27)13.9 (H=41)
16PROJ-Tremblay12510.43.7310.111.214.913.1 (H=31)14.9 (H=46)
16PROJ-Bloom7220.22.0110. (H=8)7.1 (H=12)

Myles Gaskin (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3800)

13vs PHI16220011.0602.
14@ NYJ1345021.0601.
15@ NYG34943032.02907.
16PROJ-Dodds7290.21.9140.16.187.1 (H=11)8.0 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay7300.22.0160. (H=12)8.4 (H=20)
16PROJ-Bloom11480.32.0180.191110.0 (H=20)11.0 (H=33)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.4)5 (-4.6)7 (-3.3)5 (-4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-6.6)4 (-9.3)4 (-8.0)4 (-9.7)
12James Washington587398100015.818.817.318.8
12Deon Cain10113500003.
13Robby Anderson65107101000010.117.113.620.1
13Vyncint Smith20322300002.
14Jarvis Landry50747600007.611.69.611.6
14Odell Beckham49523900003.
15NKeal Harry384215122209.711.710.711.7
15Mohamed Sanu56821300001.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6800)

13vs PHI59107.0159200027.934.931.437.9
14@ NYJ1822.02800002.
15@ NYG6774.072200019.
16PROJ-Dodds4.3660.4000913.311.2 (H=19)13.3 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.9610.40008.512.410.5 (H=17)12.4 (H=23)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0730.600010.915.913.4 (H=25)15.9 (H=35)

Isaiah Ford (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3400)

13vs PHI1910.000000000.00.0
14@ NYJ5596.09200009.
15@ NYG3153.02100002.
16PROJ-Dodds2.6340.20004.67.25.9 (H=9)7.2 (H=17)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.2430.30006.19.37.7 (H=14)9.3 (H=27)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0240.1000364.5 (H=5)6.0 (H=13)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

13vs PHI5843.03300003.
14@ NYJ5785.06800006.811.89.311.8
15@ NYG3311.0900000.
16PROJ-Dodds2.5330.20004.575.8 (H=7)7.0 (H=14)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.2290.20004.16.35.2 (H=6)6.3 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0240.20003.65.64.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=10)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

13vs PHI3855.032023106.311.38.811.3
14@ NYJ1721.0500000.
15@ NYG5785.05900005.910.98.410.9
16PROJ-Dodds3.1330.20004.57.66.1 (H=8)7.6 (H=17)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.1340.20004.67.76.2 (H=8)7.7 (H=18)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0470.20005.910.98.4 (H=14)10.9 (H=32)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-0.8)1T (-1.5)8 (-1.3)1T (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-5.3)1 (-7.0)1 (-6.1)1 (-7.2)
12Vance McDonald6311100.
13Ryan Griffin62753003.
14Ricky Seals-Jones11112202.
15Matt LaCosse49332202.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3600)

13vs PHI5375.079113.918.916.418.9
14@ NYJ5051.0600.
15@ NYG5584.04704.
16PROJ-Dodds3.6400. (H=12)9.4 (H=26)
16PROJ-Tremblay3.1350. (H=10)8.4 (H=22)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0420.36108.0 (H=13)10.0 (H=29)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+2.0)24T (+2.0)27T (+1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.9)24 (+1.9)27 (+2.6) (+0.0)
12Chris Boswell3311101011.011.0
13Sam Ficken2200667.07.0
14Austin Seibert22339911.011.0
15Nick Folk2244101012.012.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13vs PHI11235513.614.1
14@ NYJ7800212124.024.0
15@ NYG2322889.09.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+3.1)30 (+3.1)32 (+4.3)32 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+2.9)27T (+2.9)29 (+4.4)29 (+4.4)
12Pittsburgh Steelers10244402008812.012.0
13New York Jets2227710010332.02.0
14Cleveland Browns1945121001101011.011.0
15New England Patriots1331504101161620.020.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2900)

13vs PHI31.0038621000443.03.0
14@ NYJ22.0037411000333.03.0
15@ NYG36.0041213010996.06.0
16PROJ-Dodds22.203532.410.700. (H=22)8.9 (H=30)
16PROJ-Tremblay21.253462.41.10.700.5101010.0 (H=26)10.0 (H=37)