Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bills 16, Patriots 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense20.8 (-2.0) (22)135 (+22) (5)201 (-34) (28)
Patriots Defense12.9 (-9.8) (1)98 (-14) (7)170 (-65) (2)

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense26.6 (+3.8) (8)102 (-10) (19)248 (+12) (9)
Bills Defense15.9 (-6.9) (2)102 (-10) (10)190 (-45) (3)

Bills Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Devin Singletary has emerged as a workhorse back over the last five weeks and is making the most of it as he has averaged 18 carries for 84 yards compared to Frank Gore’s 10 carries for 25 yards in that same timeframe. Gore has fallen off as of late as his last three games albeit, in tough matchups against the Steelers, Ravens, and Cowboys, he has 32 yards on 23 carries as Gore does not have much explosiveness left and if there are no open holes to run through he is having a difficult time creating his own. Gore did have his best game of the season against the Patriots back in Week 4 rushing for 109 yards, but it would be difficult to see him repeating this success this week. The biggest issue for Gore has been the interior of the offensive line as the guards in Quinton Spain and Jon Feliciano have struggled as of late.

The Patriots are a unit that has allowed several big games to opposing running backs this season and Joe Mixon was able to pull off another one last week rushing for 136 yards on the ground. What is interesting is that the Patriots have allowed four 100-yard rushers on the season and in three of those four games, the Patriots were winning by two or more scores. The explanation for this is rather simple as the Patriots go to a dime/quarter defense when winning and are willing to give up the run to stop the pass. When the Patriots bring in their run-stopping unit it is one of the best in football as they bring in Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton at the defensive tackle position along with John Simon at defensive end to get a group of bigger bodies in the game.

Bills Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Bills this season are throwing just enough to keep the defenses honest as they are a unit that is designed to run the ball first. Since Week 3, Josh Allen has thrown for over 250 yards just twice and has thrown for under 200 yards six times in those 11 games. The problem for the Bills is that outside of John Brown the Bills just do not have any receiver who can consistently beat a defense as Cole Beasley is a nice complementary player, but outside of Beasley they do not have a receiver who has over 250 yards. At the tight end position, Dawson Knox has just three games this season over 40 yards and has only 355 yards on the year. Simply put, this is a limited offense that is not designed to be a pass-heavy offense.

The Patriots secondary simply put has been the best in football by a wide margin this season. On the year, they have allowed only two quarterbacks to throw for over 250 yards, and are allowing just 190 yards passing per game which is the best in football this season. In the first meeting, the Patriots had Josh Allen confused for a majority of this game as he threw for three interceptions and just 153 yards before Matt Barkley almost led a comeback late in the game with Allen injured. If there is a concern for the Patriots it is that Jason McCourty continues to struggle with a groin injury which has put some additional responsibility on second-year player J.C. Jackson who has been up and down this season, but playing better as of late. There is simply too much talent on New England’s side of the ball with Stephon Gilmore who will likely win Defensive Player of the Year, Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon at safety, and Jamie Collins who is a tremendous coverage linebacker for Buffalo to exploit much of anything against the Patriots this week.

Patriots Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

The Patriots game script for running the ball is relatively simple. When they have a lead, Sony Michel is going to see the field, the second that they fall behind they are bringing in a combination of James White and Sony Michel. After two weeks in which Michel looked like he was falling out of favor against the Texans and Chiefs, he rebounded nicely against the Bengals with a 19 carry 89-yard performance. Michel remains limited as a running back more of a downhill running back without the burst for a big play as he has just two carries longer than 20 yards on the season and no carry longer than 26 yards. The big question this week for the Patriots will be the health of Shaq Mason who is dealing with an ankle injury as he has been their best-run blocking lineman for most of the season. The Patriots should also get Ted Karras back at center who had been limited last week and missed the last few games with a knee injury which will be a significant improvement compared to James Ferentz who is a fine backup, but more of a career backup who can play all positions on the offensive line.

The Bills run defense has been an improving unit over the last five weeks as they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs during that time and have allowed just 3.9 yards-per-carry. While they did face Miami and shut their rushing attack down, they also held Ezekiel Elliott to just 71 yards, and Mark Ingram to just 50 yards. A big reason for the improved play has been Matt Milano who was a liability earlier this season has been playing much better as of late along with Trent Murphy on the defensive line who has played incredibly well over the last five weeks. This is a unit that is critical for the Bills defense to compliment their already elite pass defense. If this defense continues to play this well they could rely on it to move through the playoffs. It still is a flawed unit especially at the defensive tackle position as Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips have struggled with consistency.

Patriots Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bills defense.

The Patriots passing offense continues to struggle mightily this year especially as of late as Tom Brady has five consecutive games in which he has completed 55% or less of his passes and has thrown for 190 yards or less in three of his last four games including 128 yards last week against the Bengals. Making matters worse is that Julian Edelman is now dealing with a knee/shoulder injury and remains limited at practice on Wednesday as he was on the field for just 62% of plays last week. Outside of Edelman the Patriots remain incredibly limited at the wide receiver position as they have gotten next to nothing from Mohamed Sanu after trading a second-round pick for the receiver. Sanu since coming back from injury is averaging just 13 yards per game over his last three games even as his snap counts increased to 86% last week. Rookie N’Keal Harry has also been a non-factor as while he was on the field for 58% of plays last week saw just 2 receptions for 15 yards. The reality is that the Patriots can only go so far without being able to throw the ball and as great as Tom Brady is, he is 42 years old and needs more separation for his receivers than he may have needed several years ago.

The Bills secondary for most of the year has been a lockdown unit led by Tre’Davious White and one of the best safety duos in the NFL in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. This is a team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and all but shut down the Patriots earlier this season holding Tom Brady to just 150 yards and no touchdowns. If there is a way to beat the Bills, it is throwing to the running back as when the Bills have faced adequate receiving running backs in Patrick Laird, James White, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, and Le’Veon Bell they have struggled relative in comparison to the wide receiver position as they allowed an average of seven receptions to those players. Julian Edelman struggled in the first meeting between these teams as he had just 30 yards receiving and could be in for another long day as with just how much emphasis he will draw without any support from the rest of his receivers and with Edelman not being 100% healthy.

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.5)1 (-7.5)1 (-6.8)1 (-7.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.2)8 (-4.0)8 (-3.6)6 (-4.4)
12Dak Prescott6419332120114010.
13Deshaun Watson561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9
14Patrick Mahomes7826402831166017.817.814.914.9
15Andy Dalton661731151142107.

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $5300)

13@ DAL671924231101043125.925.923.523.5
14vs BAL7517391461029012.212.210.711.7
15@ PIT65132513911728118.818.817.417.4
16PROJ-Dodds19322150.90.97310.318.418.418.4 (H=40)18.4 (H=58)
16PROJ-Tremblay20332180.90.97310.318.518.518.5 (H=41)18.5 (H=59)
16PROJ-Bloom15251601.21.56300.517.317.317.3 (H=36)17.3 (H=52)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.5)1 (-7.4)1 (-7.3)2 (-7.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.4)14 (-2.6)15 (-2.8)15 (-2.4)
12Ezekiel Elliott56218604440012.616.614.616.6
12Tony Pollard12419043902.
13Duke Johnson3893606554115.020.017.520.0
13Carlos Hyde211017011502.
14LeSean McCoy241139031404.
14Darwin Thompson21470543604.
15Joe Mixon442513603320015.618.617.121.6
15Giovani Bernard225270221003.

Devin Singletary (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5500)

13@ DAL521463043.038116.119.117.619.1
14vs BAL611789086.029011.817.814.817.8
15@ PIT462187032.0208.910.97.99.9
16PROJ-Dodds14670.23.1210.110.613.712.2 (H=23)13.7 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay14620.23.3210.110.113.411.8 (H=22)13.4 (H=32)
16PROJ-Bloom18770.33.0200. (H=28)15.1 (H=40)

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3400)

13@ DAL15911011.01402.
14vs BAL1446000.0000.
15@ PIT191015000.0001.
16PROJ-Dodds8290.10.75044.74.4 (H=5)4.7 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay8290.10.6403.94.54.2 (H=4)4.5 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom4110.10.0001.71.71.7 (H=1)1.7 (H=1)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.4)1 (-10.6)1 (-9.9)1 (-11.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-5.0)7 (-7.5)8 (-6.9)6 (-8.9)
12Randall Cobb29748600008.612.610.612.6
12Michael Gallup63645500005.
13Kenny Stills384361100012.115.113.615.1
13DeAndre Hopkins478564000010.715.713.115.6
14Mecole Hardman141148100010.811.811.311.8
14Tyreek Hill71866202807.
15Tyler Boyd57732600002.
15John Ross25322400002.

John Brown (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5700)

13@ DAL6143.02600008119.210.7
14vs BAL7383.02600002.
15@ PIT61107.09900009.916.913.416.9
16PROJ-Dodds4.8650.20007.712.510.1 (H=16)12.5 (H=27)
16PROJ-Tremblay5.3690.20008.113.410.8 (H=18)13.4 (H=31)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0610.40008.513.511.0 (H=19)13.5 (H=31)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4800)

13@ DAL5976.01101000172320.026.0
14vs BAL7374.02910008.912.912.914.9
15@ PIT4561.0600000.
16PROJ-Dodds4.4480.2000610.48.2 (H=13)10.4 (H=24)
16PROJ-Tremblay4.4480.2000610.48.2 (H=13)10.4 (H=24)
16PROJ-Bloom4.0450.40006.910.98.9 (H=15)10.9 (H=26)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ DAL3033.03400003.
14vs BAL5453.02500002.
15@ PIT3000.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.8200.10002.64.43.5 (H=3)4.4 (H=8)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.2250.10203.35.54.4 (H=5)5.5 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom1.01100001.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=2)

Robert Foster (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

13@ DAL2821.02001702.
14vs BAL1940.000000000.00.0
15@ PIT000.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds0.81400001.42.21.8 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.91300201.52.42.0 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.5)11 (-1.1)11 (-0.9)9 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.0)21 (+2.2)21 (+1.7)20 (+1.8)
12Blake Jarwin29431701.
13Darren Fells42322318.310.39.310.3
14Travis Kelce779766013.020.014.519.0
15Cethan Carter32221317.

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

13@ DAL5243.01701.
14vs BAL5541.03703.
15@ PIT3111.01101.
16PROJ-Dodds2.5280. (H=6)5.9 (H=16)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.5280. (H=6)5.9 (H=16)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0230. (H=5)5.5 (H=14)

Tyler Kroft (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

13@ DAL1200.000000.00.0
14vs BAL2110.000000.00.0
15@ PIT1911.01417.
16PROJ-Dodds0.9900.91.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
16PROJ-Tremblay0.8700.71.51.1 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (-2.3)19T (-2.3)20T (-2.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.9)19 (+0.9)20 (+1.1) (+0.0)
12Brett Maher34009910.010.0
13Kaimi Fairbairn0044444.04.0
14Harrison Butker3322111113.013.0
15Randy Bullock2211778.08.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ DAL2323889.09.0
14vs BAL33009911.011.0
15@ PIT1122555.05.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)7 (-1.6)7 (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.9)5T (-2.9)9 (-1.9)9 (-1.9)
12Dallas Cowboys1328220000226.06.0
13Houston Texans2244831000555.05.0
14Kansas City Chiefs1627831000558.08.0
15Cincinnati Bengals3429120000221.01.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2900)

13@ DAL15.00426411008811.011.0
14vs BAL24.0025711000333.03.0
15@ PIT10.0022944100141418.018.0
16PROJ-Dodds20.203492.40.90.800.5101010.0 (H=25)10.0 (H=37)
16PROJ-Tremblay22.503702.60.90.700. (H=20)8.9 (H=30)

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.4)2 (-5.5)2 (-4.5)2 (-5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.7)6 (-4.7)7 (-3.9)8 (-3.8)
12Brandon Allen50102582012803.
13Dak Prescott78324935521425027.327.323.727.7
14Lamar Jackson601625145311140022.322.320.820.8
15Devlin Hodges5923382021414010.510.58.58.5

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5200)

13@ HOU87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14vs KC67193616911220013.513.511.811.8
15@ CIN651529128202-2014.214.212.912.9
16PROJ-Dodds25402621.50.8230. (H=45)19.2 (H=64)
16PROJ-Tremblay24402591.50.9240. (H=44)19.1 (H=63)
16PROJ-Bloom19321691.81110.115.315.315.3 (H=30)15.3 (H=43)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.4)11 (-1.5)12 (-1.1)12 (-1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.8)2 (-7.5)3 (-7.0)1 (-8.1)
12Phillip Lindsay2713570311106.
12Royce Freeman28220022902.
13Ezekiel Elliott691271010766013.720.717.220.7
13Tony Pollard1137010000.
14Mark Ingram3315500332907.910.99.410.9
14Gus Edwards20420000002.
15James Conner348420549111.
15Kerrith Whyte625000000.

James White (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5800)

13@ HOU6814790118.098229.737.733.737.7
14vs KC41633075.02707.812.89.912.4
15@ CIN25313043.049112.215.213.715.2
16PROJ-Dodds6250.24.9420.29.11411.6 (H=21)14.0 (H=33)
16PROJ-Tremblay6260.25.1420.29.214.311.8 (H=22)14.3 (H=34)
16PROJ-Bloom4150.15.0370.58.813.811.3 (H=20)13.8 (H=32)

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4600)

13@ HOU151045000.0004.
14vs KC958011.0100.
15@ CIN271989021.014010.311.310.811.3
16PROJ-Dodds14560.31.0708.19.18.6 (H=13)9.1 (H=19)
16PROJ-Tremblay13520.31.1807.88.98.4 (H=13)8.9 (H=19)
16PROJ-Bloom14530.41.0408.19.18.6 (H=13)9.1 (H=19)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3600)

13@ HOU4315010.0001.
14vs KC18715010.0001.
15@ CIN20653122.06011.913.912.913.9
16PROJ-Dodds6240.11.91504.56.45.5 (H=6)6.4 (H=13)
16PROJ-Tremblay5200.11.914045.95.0 (H=5)5.9 (H=12)
16PROJ-Bloom4140.10.000222.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=1)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.4)4 (-5.1)4 (-5.6)4 (-6.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-8.4)2 (-10.2)2 (-9.9)2 (-11.6)
12Courtland Sutton50812700002.
12Tim Patrick3231300000.
13Amari Cooper641188500008.516.512.516.5
13Ventell Bryant1111510007.
14Willie Snead37431310007.310.38.810.3
14Seth Roberts2741800000.
15James Washington501158300008.313.310.813.3
15Diontae Johnson44756200006.211.26.710.2

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6400)

13@ HOU80126.010611-7015.921.918.924.9
14vs KC66128.095118016.324.320.324.3
15@ CIN4052.0900000.
16PROJ-Dodds6.2710.41309.81612.9 (H=22)16.0 (H=38)
16PROJ-Tremblay6.5740.403010.116.613.4 (H=23)16.6 (H=40)
16PROJ-Bloom5.0540.50008.413.410.9 (H=16)13.4 (H=27)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3100)

13@ HOU6173.04600004.
14vs KC3831.03500003.
15@ CIN700.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds2.3320.20004.46.75.6 (H=7)6.7 (H=17)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.5350.20004.77.26.0 (H=8)7.2 (H=19)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

13@ HOU1953.01400001.
14vs KC3911.01300001.
15@ CIN5682.01300001.
16PROJ-Dodds2.6270.20003.96.55.3 (H=6)6.6 (H=13)
16PROJ-Tremblay2.1230.20103.65.74.7 (H=5)5.8 (H=11)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0250.20003.76.75.3 (H=6)6.8 (H=14)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3100)

13@ HOU6262.01500001.
14vs KC3320.000000000.00.0
15@ CIN900.000000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.8230.10002.94.73.8 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.5190.10002.543.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ HOU2210.000000000.00.0
14vs KC211.01200001.
15@ CIN3842.015122209.711.710.711.7
16PROJ-Dodds1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.6210.103034.63.8 (H=3)4.6 (H=7)
16PROJ-Bloom3.0320.51706.99.98.4 (H=14)9.9 (H=26)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-2.1)3 (-3.0)4T (-2.4)4 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.6)28 (+3.9)28 (+3.8)28 (+4.2)
12Andrew Beck9111801.
13Jason Witten568642110.
14Hayden Hurst283373113.316.314.816.3
15Nick Vannett54654004.

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

13@ HOU4711.02302.
14vs KC3231.0700.
15@ CIN3400.000000.00.0
16PROJ-Dodds1.4150. (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
16PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

13@ HOU5321.02402.
14vs KC5442.01401.
15@ CIN4933.02202.
16PROJ-Dodds1.4140.123.42.7 (H=2)3.4 (H=6)
16PROJ-Tremblay1.3130. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
16PROJ-Bloom2.0170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.0)1 (-3.0)1 (-3.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.4)2 (-3.4)2 (-3.7) (+0.0)
12Brandon McManus1100334.04.0
13Brett Maher0211111.01.0
14Justin Tucker1133666.06.0
15Chris Boswell1111445.05.0

Nick Folk (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

14vs KC1211444.04.0
15@ CIN2244101012.012.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.9)11T (-0.9)12 (-0.4)12 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.4)11 (-1.4)12T (-1.1)12T (-1.1)
12Denver Broncos2042411000334.04.0
13Dallas Cowboys2635640000444.04.0
14Baltimore Ravens1720960100889.09.0
15Pittsburgh Steelers1726111100556.06.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4000)

13@ HOU28.0027630000332.02.0
14vs KC23.0034611100557.07.0
15@ CIN13.0031504101161620.020.0
16PROJ-Dodds15.103352.3110.10.713.113.113.1 (H=35)13.1 (H=43)
16PROJ-Tremblay16.003442.20.910.10.611.911.911.9 (H=30)11.9 (H=36)