Matchup Analysis: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Seahawks 27, Panthers 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Seattle Seahawks Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Seahawks Offense26.2 (+3.6) (6)141 (+29) (3)243 (+7) (11)
Panthers Defense27.7 (+5.0) (27)139 (+27) (29)235 (+0) (15)

Carolina Panthers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Panthers Offense23.1 (+0.4) (15)119 (+7) (12)223 (-13) (19)
Seahawks Defense24.7 (+2.0) (22)104 (-7) (13)271 (+35) (29)

Seahawks Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

Chris Carson has spent most of 2019 as fantasyís most dependable bell cows, and his outlook opens up even more with Rashaad Penny on injured reserve with a torn ACL. But itís worth noting Carsonís ball security issues, and the possibility he sees his workload managed just a bit anyway. Penny had cut steadily into the ground game before going down, and those 33 snaps and 15 rushes per game wonít just be absorbed into Carsonís workload. Rather, itís fair to project C.J. Prosise (and perhaps a mid-week addition) to take on some of that. For his part, Carson has been adequate throughout the year, averaging a workmanlike 4.3 yards per attempt and 81 a game. The runners - including quarterback Russell Wilson, whoís running five times a week - operate behind a good-not-great line, one built much more for road-grading than for pass blocking. All told, regardless of personnel or efficiency, itís hard to bypass volume like this in fantasy football. Carson comes with his warts, but remains one of fantasyís most dependable assets - and Prosise could work his way into Week 15 value as well.

The Panthersí 2019 collapse hasnít snuck past its run defense, which is close to rock bottom at this point. Theyíve allowed 6 different runners to record 50+ yards over the past 3 weeks, averaging 7.3 per rush and scoring 6 touchdowns along the way. Last Sunday, even the Falconsí anemic run game found success, with the plodding Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill consistently grinding through a front seven that looked winded. The root problem here is on the second level: linebackers Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson have been up-and-down in space, and the secondary has offered little run-stopping help in the box. Kuechly remains a great defensive quarterback, but heís spent the year trading off strong games with shaky ones. Too often, he and Thompson are washed out of the lane, and even struggling runners have been able to capitalize. And they likely wonít get any Week 15 rest with the Seahawksí run-focused attack on the docket. The Panthers line will need to dominate in the trenches to give Kuechly, Thompson, and the crew room to pursue and strike.

Seahawks Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Panthers defense.

Russell Wilson doesnít throw with much volume (just 126 attempts over the past 4 weeks), as the Seahawks have definitively moved back into a run-dominant approach whenever possible. But his efficiency remains top-notch, sitting fifth in adjusted yards per attempt and sixth in touchdown rate. Wilson hasnít topped 245 yards since Week 9, but typically sees enough high-leverage opportunity to make fantasy hay with touchdowns. His top target of late is explosive rookie DK Metcalf, whoís notched 70+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Tyler Lockett has cooled off majorly through ankle and flu issues, but is rounding into health and always looms as a play-by-play threat. Josh Gordon was added a few weeks ago, and the Seahawks have made room for his sporadic talents (6 catches over 114 snaps). But this was a successful passing attack before Gordon came along, so thereís little need to force him into a prominent role. This will likely remain a unit replete with role players; theyíll answer the bell, but canít be counted on for much opportunity under ideal circumstances.

The Carolina pass defense has dominated at times here in 2019, but currently sits in a noticeable rut. Theyíve now allowed 300+ yards through the air to 3 of their last 4 opponents, and to 6 of their last nine. On Sunday, Matt Ryan picked them apart for the second time, routinely finding his receivers a step or two ahead down the field. The secondary isnít without talent: cornerbacks James Bradberry and Donte Jackson have been sticky in coverage, with free safety Tre Boston solid in support. Last week, for example, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley simply won a few contested balls down the field. But this group is still beatable in the slots and up the seams, as the Falcons and Saints have shown over the past few weeks. Strong safety Eric Reid is a weekly liability in coverage - he was scorched last week by undrafted rookie Olamide Zaccheaus for a 93-yard touchdown - and the linebackers are often overmatched by top tight ends. This is a talented unit, but itís grown more and more beatable as the season has worn on. Inside receivers tend to boast a noticeable advantage, so Seattleís Tyler Lockett and Jacob Hollister may be leaned on heavily.

Panthers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

Christian McCaffrey remains a sheer fantasy monster on volume alone, though itís worth noting that heís mired in a bit of a rushing slump. He hasnít topped 70 yards since Week 10, averaging just 3.8 per carry over that span. Still, itís worth noting that he faced relatively strong run defenses in all four of those games. All things considered, heís done quite well to produce what he has in the Panthersí scattershot offense. Even with the passing game coughing up turnovers left and right - and the offense seeing less touchdown opportunity - McCaffrey remains fantasyís top player week over week. Heís the absolute engine of the franchise, ceding just six snaps over the past five weeks, and he draws most of the high-leverage opportunity near the goal line. For many reasons, no matchup can truly contain him.

The Seahawks sit below league average in run defense, giving up 4.6 yards per rush and 15 touchdowns through 13 games. But it has to be noted how skewed those numbers are by a handful of chunk runs - and that this unit is currently on a major upswing. Since Nick Chubb ripped off a pair of long-gainers back in Week 6, lead runners have averaged just 3.5 per carry and 49 a game. That stretch has included impressive work against the likes of Mark Ingram (12 for 46), Dalvin Cook (9 for 29), and Todd Gurley just last week (23 for 79). Armed with a powerful rotation of interior linemen and sturdy linebacking, this front seven has morphed into one of the leagueís most imposing groups. Still, the catalyst has arguably been new Seahawk Jadeveon Clowney, whoís long been a quietly dominant force against the run. His edge-setting ability makes life even easier for Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, both of whom continue to grade as solid run-stoppers. Thereís no definitive answer for shutting down Christian McCaffrey, whoís always a massive threat when fed the ball, even in his current mini-slump. But the Seattle run defense presents yet another daunting task, and itís hard to project much per-rush productivity for Sunday.

Panthers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Seahawks defense.

The Panthers may try to move on from Cam Newton this offseason, but it wonít be Kyle Allen they do it for. Week after week, Allen continues to show that his NFL ceiling is likely as a Matt Moore-level backup. Since his impressive first start back in Week 3, heís produced just 6.5 yards per attempt and 249 a game, with 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions (and several more dropped). Allen simply doesnít boast the pocket sense or accuracy to consistently move an offense - most of that ho-hum production has come in garbage-time situations. Allenís struggles have limited his gifted young receiving corps, which has produced well enough with so much volume but is capable of even more. D.J. Moore has been a model of consistency, topping 70 yards in 8 of his last 9 games. Drawing 10 targets a game over that span, he remains a locked-in fantasy play regardless of matchup. But Curtis Samuel and the tight ends play more niche roles, and none can be counted on to produce predictably. Of them, young tight end Ian Thomas boasts the most relative appeal if Greg Olsen canít get cleared. Thomas drew 10 looks of his own Sunday and caught a short touchdown, and he averaged 49 yards a game in Olsenís place late last year.

The Seahawks sit firmly among the bottom third of the NFL in raw pass defense. That said, a disproportionate amount of that production has come while in blowout/catchup mode, and thereís been noticeable improvement over the past month or so. Opposing passers have averaged 282 yards over their last 5 games, but have needed 41 attempts a game to do so. The Seattle secondary is starting to come together: cornerback Shaquill Griffin has been one of 2019ís most dominant cover men, while Quandre Diggs has served as a massive upgrade on Tedric Thompson at free safety. Itís worth noting that theyíre fresh off a semi-collapse, though, with the struggling Jared Goff putting up one of his best performances of a season last Sunday. And thereís still not much pass rush here, even with Jadeveon Clowney back in action. Still, this week has the look of a mismatch. Itís fair to project hefty passing volume for Kyle Allen and the Panthers, though efficiency may be tough to come by.

Panthers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.6)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.7)13 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.3)16 (-1.1)16 (-1.1)18 (+0.3)
11Matt Ryan6421313111020019.619.616.419.4
12Drew Brees6530393113100026.626.623.426.4
13Dwayne Haskins641325147004608.
14Matt Ryan7020343132018024.524.521.324.3

Russell Wilson (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7000)

12@ PHI65132520011315014.514.510.511.5
13vs MIN75213124021413020.320.317.917.9
14@ LAR67223624501528014.114.111.611.6
15PROJ-Dodds20312421.90.75260.222.822.822.8 (H=55)22.8 (H=64)
15PROJ-Tremblay20312311.70.85260.221.421.421.4 (H=49)21.4 (H=57)
15PROJ-Bloom19242181.70.54210.220.520.520.5 (H=46)20.5 (H=53)

Panthers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.2)31 (+5.9)32 (+7.1)31 (+6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+8.8)30 (+7.6)30 (+9.8)30 (+9.3)
11Qadree Ollison12411110007.
11Brian Hill391530031803.
12Latavius Murray267641000012.412.412.412.4
12Alvin Kamara44115409948010.219.214.719.2
13Derrius Guice19101292328025.727.726.730.7
13Adrian Peterson2313991100015.915.915.915.9
14Devonta Freeman48178414410015.419.417.419.4
14Brian Hill149621000012.

Chris Carson (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $7500)

12@ PHI35826044.03105.
13vs MIN3923102121.07016.917.917.420.9
14@ LAR551576043.01509.112.110.612.1
15PROJ-Dodds21980.62.9190.115.918.817.4 (H=38)18.8 (H=42)
15PROJ-Tremblay231070.62.4170.116.61917.8 (H=39)19.0 (H=43)
15PROJ-Bloom23960.73.0170. (H=38)19.1 (H=44)

C.J. Prosise (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3700)

12@ PHI000000.000000.00.0
13vs MIN000000.000000.00.0
14@ LAR1112000.0000.
15PROJ-Dodds3140.11.1902.943.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay3150.11.41003.14.53.8 (H=4)4.5 (H=7)
15PROJ-Bloom4150.10.0002.12.12.1 (H=1)2.1 (H=1)

Panthers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.6)25 (+4.6)25 (+3.2)25 (+5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+5.6)27 (+7.6)25 (+6.5)26 (+8.0)
11Calvin Ridley5288143100020.328.324.331.3
11Julio Jones53869101-408.714.711.714.7
12Michael Thomas581110101100016.
12TreQuan Smith47311310007.
13Kelvin Harmon54535100005.
13Steven Sims37432900002.
14Olamide Zaccheaus222193100015.316.315.816.3
14Calvin Ridley385576100013.618.616.118.6

Tyler Lockett (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6900)

12@ PHI5621.03800003.
13vs MIN6630.000000000.00.0
14@ LAR6064.04300004.
15PROJ-Dodds4.1560.4000812.110.1 (H=15)12.1 (H=21)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7480.40007.210.99.1 (H=13)10.9 (H=18)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=23)15.1 (H=31)

DK Metcalf (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $6100)

12@ PHI5763.03500003.
13vs MIN6076.07500007.513.58.512.5
14@ LAR5366.07800007.813.810.813.8
15PROJ-Dodds3.6550.30007.310.99.1 (H=14)10.9 (H=20)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.3480.30006.69.98.3 (H=12)9.9 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0630.50009.313.311.3 (H=21)13.3 (H=28)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

12@ PHI2221.0100000121.52.0
13vs MIN2711.0100000121.52.0
14@ LAR3752.03400003.
15PROJ-Dodds1.8280.200045.84.9 (H=6)5.8 (H=11)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7270.20003.95.64.8 (H=6)5.6 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

David Moore (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

12@ PHI1821.03101403.
13vs MIN1042.065100012.514.513.514.5
14@ LAR1421.01500001.
15PROJ-Dodds1.5230.21303.85.34.6 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.6240.214045.64.9 (H=6)5.7 (H=11)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Malik Turner (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

12@ PHI1721.03310009.310.39.810.3
13vs MIN1500.000000000.00.0
14@ LAR1531.0100000121.52.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.1160.10002.23.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Panthers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-1.6)4 (-2.9)5 (-2.2)4 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)10 (-2.7)12 (-1.9)10 (-2.9)
11Jaeden Graham34222302.
12Jared Cook388699115.921.918.921.9
13Jeremy Sprinkle49423603.
14Austin Hooper47623203.

Jacob Hollister (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3800)

12@ PHI4542.02202.
13vs MIN6186.04404.410.47.410.4
14@ LAR5364.03403.
15PROJ-Dodds3.9350. (H=12)9.8 (H=27)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7320. (H=11)9.3 (H=25)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0310. (H=9)8.9 (H=23)

Luke Willson (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ PHI000.000000.00.0
13vs MIN000.000000.00.0
14@ LAR000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds0.6500.51.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.660. (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Panthers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+1.8)30 (+1.8)29 (+1.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.4)32 (+5.4)31T (+5.6) (+0.0)
11Younghoe Koo3422111111.011.0
12Wil Lutz2244101011.011.0
13Dustin Hopkins3422111112.012.0
14Younghoe Koo4444161618.018.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ PHI1122555.05.0
13vs MIN3344131313.013.0
14@ LAR2201666.06.0

Panthers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.4)25 (+1.4)25T (+1.6)25T (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.3)30 (+4.3)30T (+6.9)30T (+6.9)
11Atlanta Falcons334754001131326.026.0
12New Orleans Saints3135140100665.05.0
13Washington Redskins2127871100111111.011.0
14Atlanta Falcons2034552200131314.014.0

Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

12@ PHI9.0034432300131319.019.0
13vs MIN30.0035401200666.06.0
14@ LAR28.0045502001101011.011.0
15PROJ-Dodds21.103642. (H=23)10.2 (H=30)
15PROJ-Tremblay21.503902.51.20.700. (H=20)9.4 (H=26)

Seahawks vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.9)21 (+1.0)18 (+0.3)21 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.0)15 (-1.1)12 (-2.4)12 (-2.7)
12Carson Wentz76334525612527017.517.510.912.9
13Kirk Cousins5522382762100020.820.818.018.0
14Jared Goff7022312932224021.

Kyle Allen (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5400)

12@ NO7623362563019025.725.723.123.1
13vs WAS74274627821422129.129.124.325.3
14@ ATL71284129312624125.
15PROJ-Dodds24382641.31.2270.118.518.518.5 (H=44)18.5 (H=58)
15PROJ-Tremblay24392731.31.2280.1191919.0 (H=46)19.0 (H=60)
15PROJ-Bloom23342421.713100.119.519.519.5 (H=49)19.5 (H=63)

Seahawks vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.1)17 (+0.0)15 (-0.6)14 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.6)22 (+1.5)20 (+0.4)21 (+0.2)
12Miles Sanders6412630532308.611.610.111.6
12Jay Ajayi9616000001.
13Dalvin Cook2492914335012.415.411.914.4
13Alexander Mattison274220545107.311.39.311.3
14Todd Gurley56237914434017.321.319.321.3
14Malcolm Brown14521100008.

Christian McCaffrey (FanDuel: $10400, DraftKings: $10000)

12@ NO762264199.069125.334.329.834.3
13vs WAS7414440137.058010.217.213.717.2
14@ ATL70115301211.082013.524.519.024.5
15PROJ-Dodds18900.76.6510.219.526.122.8 (H=43)26.1 (H=56)
15PROJ-Tremblay20960.76.8550.220.527.323.9 (H=46)27.3 (H=61)
15PROJ-Bloom15710.57.0610.3182521.5 (H=39)25.0 (H=52)

Reggie Bonnafon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3900)

12@ NO000000.000000.00.0
13vs WAS100000.000000.00.0
14@ ATL216000.0000.
15PROJ-Dodds2801.0701.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
15PROJ-Tremblay0100.4300.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Seahawks vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.3)18 (+0.6)18 (+0.4)19 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-1.6)14 (-3.8)16 (-2.8)12 (-4.9)
12J.J. Arcega-Whiteside54524300004.
12Greg Ward37764000004.
13Laquon Treadwell162158100011.812.812.312.8
13Stefon Diggs529425012705.
14Robert Woods6997981229018.725.722.225.7
14Cooper Kupp204445100010.514.512.514.5

D.J. Moore (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6600)

12@ NO6396.0126218025.431.428.434.4
13vs WAS71126.07511-3013.
14@ ATL7064.08101008.
15PROJ-Dodds6.1830.41301117.114.1 (H=28)17.2 (H=41)
15PROJ-Tremblay6.5890.402011.51814.8 (H=30)18.1 (H=45)
15PROJ-Bloom6.0720.500010.216.213.3 (H=25)16.3 (H=38)

Curtis Samuel (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4400)

12@ NO6441.09044004.
13vs WAS6974.065100012.516.514.516.5
14@ ATL6542.025031704.
15PROJ-Dodds3.7470.31607.110.89.0 (H=16)10.8 (H=28)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7480.31607.210.99.1 (H=16)10.9 (H=28)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0430.52120. (H=21)12.1 (H=34)

Jarius Wright (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3500)

12@ NO3811.0400000.
13vs WAS5253.03400003.
14@ ATL5954.0300000375.07.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.9220.10002.84.73.8 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.9230.101034.94.0 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0330.10003.96.95.4 (H=7)6.9 (H=16)

Seahawks vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.4)31 (+4.1)31 (+3.3)31 (+4.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+6.3)32 (+12.6)32 (+8.8)32 (+13.1)
12Zach Ertz66141291115.
13Kyle Rudolph476450111.
14Tyler Higbee68117116011.618.615.121.6

Greg Olsen (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

12@ NO7075.04404.
13vs WAS3933.02202.
14@ ATL000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.4270. (H=6)6.3 (H=12)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.0340. (H=9)7.6 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ian Thomas (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3100)

12@ NO221.0400.
13vs WAS3244.02402.
14@ ATL61105.057111.716.714.216.7
15PROJ-Dodds2.0220. (H=4)5.4 (H=11)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7160. (H=2)3.9 (H=6)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0330. (H=11)9.1 (H=29)

Seahawks vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-0.8)8T (-0.8)8 (-1.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.3)4 (-2.3)4 (-2.7) (+0.0)
12Jake Elliott1100333.03.0
13Dan Bailey1134667.07.0
14Greg Zuerlein0144444.04.0

Joey Slye (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ NO23137710.010.0
13vs WAS0033333.03.0
14@ ATL22228810.010.0

Seahawks vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.8)30 (+2.8)22 (+1.1)22 (+1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.2)27 (+3.2)29 (+3.9)29 (+3.9)
12Philadelphia Eagles1734861100101011.011.0
13Minnesota Vikings374442110112128.08.0
14Los Angeles Rams12308510007714.014.0

Carolina Panthers (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ NO34.0041821000443.03.0
13vs WAS29.0036250000556.06.0
14@ ATL40.004611000011-3.0-3.0
15PROJ-Dodds26.603782.60.80.600. (H=17)6.8 (H=22)
15PROJ-Tremblay27.0038220.80.500.3666.0 (H=13)6.0 (H=17)