Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Rams 25, Cowboys 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Rams Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Rams Offense23.9 (+1.3) (12)99 (-12) (21)277 (+41) (6)
Cowboys Defense20.5 (-2.1) (12)110 (-1) (18)216 (-19) (7)

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense25.7 (+3.0) (9)124 (+12) (10)307 (+70) (1)
Rams Defense20.2 (-2.5) (11)104 (-7) (12)221 (-14) (10)

Rams Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Los Angeles Rams' rushing volume has spiked in recent weeks following head coach Sean McVay's acknowledgment that Todd Gurley's rushing volume was alarmingly-low earlier in the season. The Rams' rushing volume still ranks just 18th in the league, while the yardage and efficiency totals are no better, but Gurley's playing time and usage rate has spiked in recent weeks, inspiring hope for him to perhaps register at least 1 100-yard rushing day down the stretch. Gurley has carried the ball at least 19 times in 3 out of his last 4 games, coming within 5 yards of the century mark twice during that stretch. Running behind Los Angeles' horrific offensive line, Todd Gurley has had his work cut out for himself on the ground this season, but a handful of impressive performances have his stock and, in turn, the stock of the entire Rams' rushing attack trending upwards as they battle for a potential Wild Card spot in the playoffs.

Against the run, the Cowboys have faced medial volume this season, while posting middle-of-the-road run-stopping metrics across the board. They rank 19th in the league in rushing yardage allowed, 22nd in rushing touchdowns allowed, but 13th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Thanks to a strong defensive front seven, Dallas has only allowed 2 100-yard rushers this season. Headlined by defensive linemen Demarcus Lawrence and Christian Covington in the trenches and Jaylon Smith at linebacker, the Cowboys field ample run-stopping talent to stifle most rushing attacks. In the secondary, Byron Jones, Chidobe Awuzie, and Jourdan Lewis contribute more in run support than practically any other group of cornerbacks in the league. This run-stopping strength in the secondary is paramount to the team's ability to limit big plays on the ground, and subsequently, big rushing performances. Expect the Rams to have their hands full in the trenches this weekend, as Todd Gurley is unlikely to post his first 100-yard rushing day of the season against Dallas' capable run defense.

Rams Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Los Angeles Rams, fresh off of back-to-back impressive performances against NFC West competition, bring their high-volume passing attack into Dallas to face off with the Cowboys' struggling defense. Both of Jared Goff's last two games rank in his five most efficient passing days of the 2019 season, according to net yards per attempt, and in a high-volume passing attack like the Rams', Goff's efficiency can put their offense over the top, as a whole. In recent weeks, the Rams have utilized two-wide-receiver sets more than ever under Sean McVay. This change in tendency has led to decreased playing time and utilization for Cooper Kupp recently, with six or fewer targets in four out of his last five games. Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee have emerged as Goff's top-two targets in recent weeks. Woods has posted at least 9 targets and 95 receiving yards in 4 straight, while Higbee has registered back-to-back 7-catch, 100-yard games. On the whole, the Rams' passing attack has posted impressive totals, but the team's struggling offensive line does not make it easy on Jared Goff, whose numbers have rebounded in recent weeks after a significant midseason slump.

The Dallas Cowboys' pass defense opened the season very strong, but a handful of poor recent performances have left many skeptical that this team has effectively quit on head coach Jason Garrett. Overall, the Cowboys have faced medial volume on the ground, allowing impressive yardage and touchdown totals, but their inability to force turnovers (only five interceptions this season) is worrying. While their season-long numbers are impressive, allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, recently, they have drifted off, allowing the 8th most to opposing quarterbacks over the last month. They have not faced particularly stiff opposition in recent weeks, losing to Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen in disappointing fashion, and they may be in trouble once again this weekend against the Rams' high-volume passing attack. Along the defensive line, Demarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn have been extremely impressive this season, disrupting the pocket, and their performance this weekend will be critical to the team's pass-defending efforts. In the secondary, cornerback Byron Jones and the team's number-one safety Xavier Woods have been vital to limiting big plays through the air. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed only 3 100-yard receivers, and they will need a strong bounceback performance this weekend to keep the Rams from shredding them for a third straight week.

Cowboys Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Rams defense.

After giving Ezekiel Elliott a massive offseason contract extension, the Cowboys have gotten their money's worth in 2019, with Elliott ranking third in the NFL in carries so far this season. Elliott rarely leaves the field, especially with Tony Pollard banged up, as he regularly plays over 80-percent of Dallas' offensive snaps. Over his last 8 games, Elliott has tallied at least 19 carries 6 times, yet he has now gone 5 straight games without eclipsing 100 yards on the ground. Running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, Elliott's expectations on a weekly basis, especially on his massive workload, are sky-high. This weekend, in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Rams' strong defensive front, the odds will be stacked against Elliott getting back on the board with a 100-yard rushing day.

The Los Angeles Rams' run defense has faced almost as much volume as any defense in the NFL this season, which has fostered unimpressive rushing yardage totals allowed. However, at just 3.8 yards per carry allowed, they rank 4th in the NFL, and their defensive personnel resembles one of the league's toughest run defenses. In the trenches, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers make up one of the league's best interior linemen duos. Donald commands double teams at an unmatched rate, and as one of the league's most talented defensive linemen, he beats them as often as anyone in the league. Brockers also excels as one of the best interior linemen when it comes to clogging up rushing lanes and allowing Rams linebackers to come up and make plays in run support. At linebacker, Cory Littleton's emergence as one of the league's best tacklers has bolstered an already impressed run defense. Through 13 games, Littleton has missed just 1 tackle this season, and his emergence, coupled with the support Los Angeles' secondary provides, is vital to their run-stopping efforts. At the back end of their defense, Eric Weddle and Jalen Ramsey are top-tier run-stoppers for their respective positions, and they excel at limiting big plays. The Rams have only allowed 2 100-yard rushers on the season, and Ezekiel Elliott will need to produce a heroic effort this weekend to add a third tally to that list.

Cowboys Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Rams defense.

Dallas' passing attack has seen its number bolstered by garbage time production in recent weeks, but on the whole, their metrics are as impressive as any team in the league. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys rank 1st in the league in passing yards, 1st in net yards per attempt, and 5th in total passing volume this season. At the top of the depth chart, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup comprise one of the league's best one-two punches at wide receiver. Over the last month, Gallup has led the way with 36 targets, 22 receptions, and 375 receiving yards, but this is partially a product of the increased attention given to Cooper, who tops the charts across the board as Dallas' best receiver over the course of the entire season. Aside from the top two, Randall Cobb in the slot and Jason Witten at tight end make for a strong supporting cast as well. Behind one of the league's best offensive lines, Dak Prescott typically has plenty of time to distribute the ball to this talented group of receivers.

The Los Angeles Rams' pass defense grades as one of the league's strongest units this season, especially since their acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams have defended one of the highest volume of pass attempts of any team in the league this season, and their impressive personnel has done an exceptional job limiting opposing offenses to just 5.6 net yards per attempt, the 5th-best mark in the league. The Rams' pass rush is one of the league's most imposing units, with Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler, Jr., and Clay Matthews combining for 28.5 sacks on the season. Donald alone is one of the league's biggest difference-makers in the trenches, and with strong edge rushers around him, this is one of the most productive pass rushes in the league. At linebacker, Cory Littleton's exceptional athleticism enables him to keep up with opposing linebackers and running backs in coverage as one of the league's best pass-stopping players at the second level. Lastly, in the secondary, the Rams field numerous top-end coverage defensive backs. Jalen Ramsey, Eric Weddle, Nickell Robey-Coleman, and Taylor Rapp all grade as above-average pass-defenders at their respective positions, to name a few. Overall, this defense lacks a clear weakness against the pass, and the Cowboys will have an uphill battle ahead of themselves in Week 15, trying to move the ball through the air.

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.0)13 (-1.1)12 (-1.3)11 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.2)26 (+5.1)29 (+5.7)26 (+4.7)
11Jeff Driskel65152620920851129.629.627.527.5
12Tom Brady701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3
13Josh Allen671924231101043125.925.923.523.5
14Mitchell Trubisky732331244311063135.535.533.133.1

Jared Goff (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6100)

12vs BAL542637212021-
13@ ARI7232434242000029.
14vs SEA7022312932224021.
15PROJ-Dodds23372711.41240. (H=42)19.1 (H=54)
15PROJ-Tremblay23372701.41.1230.118.918.918.9 (H=41)18.9 (H=53)
15PROJ-Bloom21322502.11110.120.620.620.6 (H=48)20.6 (H=61)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.7)16 (-0.1)16 (-0.5)16 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.5)7 (-4.7)9 (-4.5)7 (-5.5)
11Bo Scarbrough3214551000011.511.511.511.5
11J.D. McKissic153130434005.
12Sony Michel362085000008.
12Rex Burkhead15230521401.
13Devin Singletary52146304338116.119.117.619.1
13Frank Gore159110111402.
14David Montgomery472086010008.
14Tarik Cohen34370662403.

Todd Gurley (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6000)

12vs BAL52622033.0-301.
13@ ARI541995111.020017.518.518.018.5
14vs SEA562379144.034017.321.319.321.3
15PROJ-Dodds17680.62.9190.112.915.814.4 (H=26)15.8 (H=39)
15PROJ-Tremblay16640.62.5170.112.314.813.6 (H=24)14.8 (H=35)
15PROJ-Bloom18680.72.0130.112.914.913.9 (H=25)14.9 (H=35)

Malcolm Brown (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4200)

12vs BAL210000.000000.00.0
13@ ARI18630010.000333.03.0
14vs SEA14521100.0008.
15PROJ-Dodds4180.10.0002.42.42.4 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
15PROJ-Tremblay4160.10.2102.32.52.4 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
15PROJ-Bloom5180.20.000333.0 (H=2)3.0 (H=3)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.8)8 (-4.2)8 (-3.5)6 (-4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+6.6)25 (+6.6)24 (+6.4)24 (+6.1)
11Marvin Jones57544321-4015.919.917.919.9
11Danny Amendola36544700004.
12Julian Edelman681289300009.317.313.317.3
12Jakobi Meyers54947400007.411.49.411.4
13Cole Beasley5976110100017.
13John Brown61432600008.
14Allen Robinson718548200016.821.819.321.8
14Anthony Miller654342100010.213.211.713.2

Robert Woods (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6200)

12vs BAL3696.09700009.715.712.715.7
13@ ARI671913.0172000017.230.223.733.2
14vs SEA6997.0981229018.725.722.225.7
15PROJ-Dodds5.5690.31609.314.812.1 (H=20)14.8 (H=34)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.4700.31609.414.812.1 (H=20)14.8 (H=34)
15PROJ-Bloom6.0820.500011.217.214.2 (H=26)17.2 (H=44)

Cooper Kupp (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6500)

12vs BAL53106.03500003.
13@ ARI5766.065100012.518.515.518.5
14vs SEA2044.045100010.514.512.514.5
15PROJ-Dodds5.6690.40009.314.912.1 (H=19)14.9 (H=33)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.6710.40109.615.212.4 (H=20)15.2 (H=34)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0560.60009.214.211.7 (H=18)14.2 (H=30)

Brandin Cooks (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4500)

12vs BAL4242.03201103.
13@ ARI6122.02400002.
14vs SEA2720.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds3.0420.21305.78.77.2 (H=9)8.7 (H=18)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.8380.21305.38.16.7 (H=8)8.1 (H=16)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0280.2000465.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=9)

Josh Reynolds (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3000)

12vs BAL3022.0800000.
13@ ARI2954.03900003.
14vs SEA4600.00032902.
15PROJ-Dodds1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.8110.10201.92.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0290.20004.16.15.1 (H=6)6.1 (H=15)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.2)23 (+0.8)22 (+0.5)23 (+1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.8)2 (-6.5)2 (-5.6)2 (-6.7)
11T.J. Hockenson4821600.
12Matt LaCosse3411500.
13Dawson Knox52431701.
14J.P. Holtz38335605.

Tyler Higbee (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $3900)

12vs BAL3865.0200274.57.0
13@ ARI7287.0107116.723.720.226.7
14vs SEA68117.0116011.618.615.121.6
15PROJ-Dodds4.8490.36.711.59.1 (H=16)11.5 (H=35)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.4550.47.913.310.6 (H=20)13.3 (H=45)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0420.46.610.68.6 (H=14)10.6 (H=30)

Gerald Everett (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4000)

12vs BAL1722.02302.
13@ ARI000.000000.00.0
14vs SEA000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds0.9900.91.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (+0.3)13T (+0.3)14T (-0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.3)13 (-0.3)14T (-0.4) (+0.0)
11Matt Prater0033333.03.0
12Nick Folk2411779.09.0
13Steve Hauschka2323889.09.0
14Eddy Pineiro1144777.07.0

Greg Zuerlein (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs BAL2200667.07.0
13@ ARI2344101010.010.0
14vs SEA0144444.04.0

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-2.9)6T (-2.9)2 (-3.7)2 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.7)6 (-2.7)8 (-2.1)8 (-2.1)
11Detroit Lions355091010033-1.0-1.0
12New England Patriots932101000228.08.0
13Buffalo Bills15426411008811.011.0
14Chicago Bears2440820000222.02.0

Los Angeles Rams (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2900)

12vs BAL45.004803000033-1.0-1.0
13@ ARI7.0019861001141418.018.0
14vs SEA12.00308510007714.014.0
15PROJ-Dodds23.403852.40.90.600. (H=19)7.7 (H=23)
15PROJ-Tremblay24.503922.410.600. (H=19)7.7 (H=23)

Rams vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.1)13 (-1.2)10 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)18 (+0.6)17 (-0.4)
11Mitchell Trubisky6924431901114012.912.911.011.0
12Lamar Jackson62152016950895038.038.036.336.3
13Kyler Murray64193416301428116.016.014.314.3
14Russell Wilson67223624501528014.114.111.611.6

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6300)

12@ NE6419332120114010107.97.9
13vs BUF78324935521425027.327.323.727.7
14@ CHI7327493341031020.820.817.520.5
15PROJ-Dodds24372901.60.93160.222.822.822.8 (H=57)22.8 (H=71)
15PROJ-Tremblay23372841.613150.222.322.322.3 (H=55)22.3 (H=68)
15PROJ-Bloom22312601.60.73140.221.321.321.3 (H=51)21.3 (H=63)

Rams vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.1)10 (-1.9)11 (-1.3)11 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.0)12 (-2.8)16 (-1.7)13 (-2.6)
11Tarik Cohen4593906535113.418.415.918.4
11David Montgomery3514310311905.
12Mark Ingram24151111117123.824.824.327.8
12Gus Edwards321455000005.
13Kenyan Drake5113310522005.
13David Johnson15415022902.
14Chris Carson5515760431509.112.110.612.1
14Rashaad Penny1000111601.

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $7800)

12@ NE562186044.040012.616.614.616.6
13vs BUF6912710107.066013.720.717.220.7
14@ CHI721981252.012021.323.322.323.3
15PROJ-Dodds21860.63.3250.115.318.617.0 (H=31)18.6 (H=40)
15PROJ-Tremblay21840.62.7210.114.717.416.1 (H=28)17.4 (H=36)
15PROJ-Bloom22970.93.0170.117.420.418.9 (H=38)20.4 (H=47)

Tony Pollard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

12@ NE12419043.0902.
13vs BUF1137010.0000.
14@ CHI000000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds3110.11.1802.53.63.1 (H=2)3.6 (H=4)
15PROJ-Tremblay2100.11.31002.63.93.3 (H=3)3.9 (H=4)
15PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Rams vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-1.3)17 (+0.1)14 (-1.1)15 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-1.4)21 (+1.3)20 (-0.1)20 (+0.2)
11Taylor Gabriel691475700005.712.79.212.7
11Anthony Miller651165400005.411.48.411.4
12Marquise Brown497542200016.221.218.721.2
12Willie Snead473214200013.415.414.415.4
13Larry Fitzgerald59765600005.611.68.611.6
13Pharoh Cooper38642600002.
14DK Metcalf53667800007.813.810.813.8
14Tyler Lockett60644300004.

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6500)

12@ NE5220.000000000.00.0
13vs BUF64118.08500008.516.512.516.5
14@ CHI5786.083100014.320.317.320.3
15PROJ-Dodds4.7690.40009.31411.7 (H=18)14.0 (H=29)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.3620.40008.612.910.8 (H=16)12.9 (H=25)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0670.50009.714.712.2 (H=19)14.7 (H=32)

Michael Gallup (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5700)

12@ NE6364.05500005.
13vs BUF6963.06300006.
14@ CHI58106.0109000010.916.913.919.9
15PROJ-Dodds4.6720.3000913.611.3 (H=19)13.6 (H=32)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.8730.30009.113.911.5 (H=20)13.9 (H=33)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0710.40009.514.512.0 (H=21)14.5 (H=36)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4400)

12@ NE2974.08600008.612.610.612.6
13vs BUF6733.05300005.
14@ CHI5852.04300004.
15PROJ-Dodds3.4470.20005.99.37.6 (H=12)9.3 (H=21)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.1450.20005.78.87.3 (H=11)8.8 (H=19)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0510.20006.39.37.8 (H=12)9.3 (H=21)

Tavon Austin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ NE1310.000000000.00.0
13vs BUF2052.02200002.
14@ CHI2120.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.0110.10001.72.72.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.2130.10001.93.12.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Rams vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.3)7 (-1.9)7 (-1.6)8T (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-4.7)1 (-7.0)1 (-5.8)1 (-7.1)
11Ben Braunecker5031800.
12Mark Andrews32324504.
13Charles Clay31222902.
14Jacob Hollister53643403.

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3700)

12@ NE5241.0500.
13vs BUF5686.042110.
14@ CHI5675.03703.
15PROJ-Dodds3.9360. (H=11)9.3 (H=25)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7330. (H=10)8.8 (H=23)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0230. (H=5)6.5 (H=13)

Blake Jarwin (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ NE2943.01701.
13vs BUF2632.0900.
14@ CHI2276.05005118.011.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.0220. (H=4)5.4 (H=12)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.9210. (H=4)5.2 (H=11)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=7)7.3 (H=20)

Rams vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.4)12 (-0.4)12 (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.3)3 (-2.3)2 (-3.1) (+0.0)
11Eddy Pineiro0211111.01.0
12Justin Tucker1166999.09.0
13Zane Gonzalez0011111.01.0
14Jason Myers2201666.06.0

Kai Forbath (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

13@ HOU1112444.04.0

Rams vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+0.6)22T (+0.6)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-1.2)14T (-1.2)18 (+0.1)18 (+0.1)
11Chicago Bears1728301100445.05.0
12Baltimore Ravens6221220006613.013.0
13Arizona Cardinals3454910000110.00.0
14Seattle Seahawks2845502001101011.011.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2800)

12@ NE13.0028220000226.06.0
13vs BUF26.0035640000444.04.0
14@ CHI31.0038221100665.05.0
15PROJ-Dodds22.503762.310. (H=25)8.8 (H=30)
15PROJ-Tremblay22.503712.41.10.700. (H=26)9.1 (H=32)