Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 25, Bengals 16

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense26.0 (+3.4) (8)96 (-15) (23)258 (+22) (9)
Bengals Defense25.0 (+2.4) (23)157 (+45) (32)243 (+7) (19)

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense15.2 (-7.4) (31)86 (-25) (28)227 (-9) (18)
Patriots Defense12.9 (-9.7) (1)93 (-18) (4)172 (-64) (2)

Patriots Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Patriots may have made a shift away from Sony Michel this past week as the running back for the third time in four games had 10 carries or less and for the second week in a row, Michel had 20% or less of the snaps on the field. Some of this had to do with the game script with the Patriots falling behind early and Michel being limited as a receiver, but the larger story has just been the inability for Michel to consistently move the ball. Both James White and Rex Burkhead provide more skills as both blockers and receivers than Michel and with the Patriots struggling on offense, part of it has been predictability that they are likely going to run the ball with Michel in the game. It is not all Michel’s fault, as the offensive line since losing David Andrews to start the year has struggled with consistency leading the slashing running backs who have more speed in Burkhead and White more valuable to this team. Michel will still play a role when the Patriots have a lead as he is the better runner between the tackles and to push the pile forward.

The Bengals run defense continues to be one of the worst in the league as Nick Chubb torched them for 106 yards on just 15 carries last week and was a major factor in the Browns winning the game. On the season, the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs and have allowed eight running backs to rush for 75 yards or more on the season. The issue for the Bengals is that their linebacking group is one of the weakest in Nick Vigil and Shawn Williams have both struggled mightily which have led to the Bengals being susceptible to long plays such as the 57 yard run from Nick Chubb last week. The defensive line is the strength of this team with Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, but if you can get past those two, there are big plays to be had.

Patriots Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Patriots passing offense continues to struggle. This offense has now completed 55% or less of their passes in their last four games as the team seemingly is unable to find a second receiver to go along with Julian Edelman. Mohamed Sanu has been a disappointment after the Patriots acquired the receiver for a second-round pick. Sanu has just 6 receptions for 31 yards total over his last three games. N’Keal Harry has just two receptions in his three games back from IR, and Jacobi Meyers is a deep threat but has struggled with consistency. The reality is that this is an offense that is going to need to figure something out quickly and it appears that it likely will be James White who has played in 60% or more snaps in each of the last two games which he has not done since both Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead were out back in 2018.

Cincinnati’s passing defense has made a fairly substantial turnaround in the second half of the season after being a unit that struggled to start the year. Since Week 9, the Bengals have not allowed a quarterback to throw for over 300 yards, and have allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 240 yards. The Bengals held Baker Mayfield to just 11 of 24 last week for 192 yards while intercepting the quarterback twice. This is by no means a perfect unit, as they are still the second-worst team in the league in yards-per-attempt, and their overall numbers look better than they should as they have faced the second-fewest attempts in the NFL this year. Their best corner could give the Patriots matchup problems this week as Darqueze Dennard out of the slot has been far and away the best corner with the Bengals struggling on the outside with B.W. Webb and William Jackson. This is a matchup that should be an efficient but low statistical game for the Patriots.

Bengals Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Say what you want about how bad the Bengals offense has been this season, but Joe Mixon continues to work hard every game as evidenced by last week’s 146 yards and a touchdown game against Cleveland on 23 carries. This marks the fourth time out of the last five games that Mixon has run for over 75 yards, which was something that he was only able to do once in his first eight games of the season. With the Bengals having limited options in the passing game, they seem to be committed to the run even in defeat as they have run the ball with Mixon an average of 21 times over the last five games while being outscored 115-74.

The Patriots run defense continues to be one of the better units in the NFL this season as they shut down the Chiefs last week holding the team to just 57 yards rushing on 20 attempts. For the most part this season, they have been a team of when they are on, they are the best in the league, but they have had a few hiccups throughout the season as they have allowed three running backs to top 100 yards this year which has played a role in the Patriots allowing 4.2 yards-per-carry which is 15th in the NFL this year while still allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. What is the most impressive about the Patriots is that they have allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season as this is a unit that when they want to sell out to stop the run have one of the best units in football behind Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy to eat up space for Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins to clean up the tackle.

Bengals Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Bengals will once again start Andy Dalton after they seemingly have abandoned the Ryan Finley experiment. Dalton has kept the Bengals in both of the games since coming back from the benching as he played a key role in beating the Jets and lost a close game to the Browns last week. Dalton provides more stability to the Bengals making them more competitive. The Bengals did suffer a tough injury this week as Auden Tate was placed on IR and with no signs of A.J. Green coming back this season will make the options for this offense limited outside of Tyler Boyd and John Ross who returned last week but saw just 51% of the snaps.

The recent struggles from the Patriots can not be blamed on their pass defense which continues to be the best in the NFL this season. This is a unit that has not allowed a 300-yard passer on the year and has allowed just two quarterbacks to top 250 yards one of which was garbage time production from Ben Roethlisberger back in Week One. This is a unit that over the last two weeks has been vulnerable to speed receivers as Mecole Hardman and Kenny Stills both have caught touchdowns in back-to-back weeks against the Patriots and a big reason for this has to do with Jason McCourty’s injury. McCourty who was active played just four snaps last week and has been a limited participant this week. If he is unable to go, the Patriots could be vulnerable to John Ross on a deep play as they rely on McCourty to match up with the fastest receiver. If McCourty is unable to go, it will be J.C. Jackson who has been up and down this year in his second season in the NFL. Overall, outside of a deep throw to Ross, it will be difficult to see the Bengals consistently move the ball against this defense this week.

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.0)23 (+1.9)25 (+2.6)23 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-4.6)6 (-4.6)6 (-4.1)4 (-5.1)
11Derek Carr7025292921151123.723.720.820.8
12Devlin Hodges345111181031010.
13Sam Darnold7428482390029012.912.910.510.5
14Baker Mayfield55112419202213114.914.913.013.0

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6000)

12vs DAL701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3
13@ HOU87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14vs KC67193616911220013.513.511.811.8
15PROJ-Dodds25402791.70.8230.120.920.920.9 (H=50)20.9 (H=64)
15PROJ-Tremblay25402751.71240.120.620.620.6 (H=49)20.6 (H=62)
15PROJ-Bloom213322021110.118.718.718.7 (H=41)18.7 (H=53)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.7)26 (+3.2)25 (+3.2)25 (+3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.4)14 (-2.0)12 (-2.1)14 (-1.3)
11Josh Jacobs452311203312012.415.411.917.4
11DeAndre Washington92-10221401.
12Benny Snell3621980115010.311.310.811.3
12Kerrith Whyte7643000004.
13LeVeon Bell6310320543506.710.78.710.7
13Bilal Powell11414022401.
14Kareem Hunt3592813240012.814.813.814.8
14Nick Chubb391510601111011.712.712.215.7

James White (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5400)

12vs DAL2125031.0-60-
13@ HOU6814790118.098229.737.733.737.7
14vs KC41633075.02707.812.89.912.4
15PROJ-Dodds7310.25.6430.29.815.412.6 (H=23)15.4 (H=42)
15PROJ-Tremblay7320.25.3440.21015.312.7 (H=24)15.3 (H=41)
15PROJ-Bloom4160.15.0340.481310.5 (H=17)13.0 (H=31)

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5100)

12vs DAL362085000.0008.
13@ HOU151045000.0004.
14vs KC958011.0100.
15PROJ-Dodds14550.40.9608.59.49.0 (H=14)9.4 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay12490.40.97088.98.5 (H=13)8.9 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom13550.61.0409.510.510.0 (H=17)10.5 (H=23)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3100)

12vs DAL1523052.01401.
13@ HOU4315010.0001.
14vs KC18715010.0001.
15PROJ-Dodds6230.12.11604.56.65.6 (H=6)6.6 (H=16)
15PROJ-Tremblay5200.11.81504.15.95.0 (H=5)5.9 (H=13)
15PROJ-Bloom6230.10.0002.92.92.9 (H=2)2.9 (H=4)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.8)9T (-3.7)10 (-2.5)10 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.7)9 (-6.0)8 (-5.4)9T (-6.3)
11Tyrell Williams51448200008.
11Hunter Renfrow31656600006.611.69.111.6
12James Washington587398100015.818.817.318.8
12Deon Cain10113500003.
13Robby Anderson65107101000010.117.113.620.1
13Demaryius Thomas55532300002.
14Jarvis Landry50747600007.611.69.611.6
14Odell Beckham49523900003.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7100)

12vs DAL68128.09300009.317.313.317.3
13@ HOU80126.010611-7015.921.918.924.9
14vs KC66128.095118016.324.320.324.3
15PROJ-Dodds6.5780.514011.217.714.4 (H=26)17.7 (H=40)
15PROJ-Tremblay6.9830.514011.718.615.2 (H=28)18.6 (H=44)
15PROJ-Bloom6.0800.800012.818.815.8 (H=30)18.8 (H=45)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3300)

12vs DAL5494.07400007.411.49.411.4
13@ HOU6173.04600004.
14vs KC3831.03500003.
15PROJ-Dodds2.6370.20004.97.56.2 (H=9)7.5 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.9420.20005.48.36.9 (H=11)8.3 (H=23)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0370.10004.37.35.8 (H=8)7.3 (H=18)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13@ HOU6262.01500001.
14vs KC3320.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.1270.20003.965.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=12)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.8240.20003.65.44.5 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4300)

12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13@ HOU1953.01400001.
14vs KC3911.01300001.
15PROJ-Dodds2.1230.10002.954.0 (H=3)5.1 (H=7)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.4160.10202.43.83.2 (H=2)3.9 (H=4)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0230.20003.55.54.6 (H=4)5.6 (H=9)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3500)

12vs DAL5741.0101000787.58.0
13@ HOU2210.000000000.00.0
14vs KC211.01200001.
15PROJ-Dodds1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=2)3.7 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=2)3.7 (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0150.20002.74.73.7 (H=3)4.7 (H=8)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)10 (-1.0)10 (-0.9)10 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.5)9 (-3.3)9 (-2.9)9 (-3.4)
11Darren Waller66757807.612.610.112.6
12Vance McDonald6311100.
13Ryan Griffin62753003.
14Ricky Seals-Jones11112202.

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2700)

12vs DAL4910.000000.00.0
13@ HOU4711.02302.
14vs KC3231.0700.
15PROJ-Dodds1.6180.12.443.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.1130.11.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0130. (H=2)3.5 (H=6)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2600)

12vs DAL3411.0500.
13@ HOU5321.02402.
14vs KC5442.01401.
15PROJ-Dodds1.2140.123.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.1130.11.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+1.8)24T (+1.8)28 (+1.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+0.9)24T (+0.9)24 (+1.1) (+0.0)
11Daniel Carlson1122555.05.0
12Chris Boswell3311101011.011.0
13Sam Ficken2200667.07.0
14Austin Seibert22339911.011.0

Nick Folk (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs DAL2411779.09.0
14vs KC1211444.04.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+2.6)29 (+2.6)24T (+3.6)24T (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.0)23 (+1.0)24 (+2.4)24 (+2.4)
11Oakland Raiders10246511009913.013.0
12Pittsburgh Steelers10244402008812.012.0
13New York Jets2227710010332.02.0
14Cleveland Browns1945121001101011.011.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

12vs DAL9.0032101000228.08.0
13@ HOU28.0027630000332.02.0
14vs KC23.0034611100557.07.0
15PROJ-Dodds14.903172. (H=33)12.9 (H=41)
15PROJ-Tremblay15.503382.4110.10.612.312.312.3 (H=30)12.3 (H=38)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.1)1 (-7.0)1 (-6.4)1 (-7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.2)14 (-2.0)14 (-2.2)11 (-2.9)
11Carson Wentz75204021410317016.416.412.313.3
12Dak Prescott6419332120114010.
13Deshaun Watson561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9
14Patrick Mahomes7826402831166017.817.814.914.9

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4900)

12vs PIT000000000000.00.0
13vs NYJ662237243105-4015.815.813.313.3
14@ CLE75223826201311013.213.210.610.6
15PROJ-Dodds213523311380. (H=37)16.1 (H=50)
15PROJ-Tremblay223624411380.116.616.616.6 (H=39)16.6 (H=52)
15PROJ-Bloom20332171.21.5370.115.515.515.5 (H=35)15.5 (H=47)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.9)1 (-7.9)1 (-7.8)1 (-8.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.0)2 (-6.3)2 (-6.0)2 (-6.8)
11Miles Sanders641138042904.
11Boston Scott14726000002.
12Ezekiel Elliott56218604440012.616.614.616.6
12Tony Pollard12419043902.
13Duke Johnson3893606554115.020.017.520.0
13Carlos Hyde211017011502.
14Darwin Thompson21470543604.
14LeSean McCoy241139031404.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $6100)

12vs PIT401879000.0007.
13vs NYJ521944144.0260131715.017.0
14@ CLE4423146143.040024.627.626.130.6
15PROJ-Dodds18720.32.1160.111.213.312.3 (H=23)13.3 (H=28)
15PROJ-Tremblay18730.32.1150.111.213.312.3 (H=23)13.3 (H=28)
15PROJ-Bloom19690.53.0230.112.815.814.3 (H=29)15.8 (H=39)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3800)

12vs PIT211-1033.0310364.56.0
13vs NYJ1314021.0801.
14@ CLE30415032.03104.
15PROJ-Dodds31302.11502.84.93.8 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay2902.11502.44.53.4 (H=3)4.5 (H=7)
15PROJ-Bloom2702.01702.44.43.4 (H=3)4.4 (H=6)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.8)1 (-9.7)1 (-8.9)1 (-10.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.0)8 (-6.5)9 (-5.4)6 (-7.7)
11Nelson Agholor66944000004.
11J.J. Arcega-Whiteside19112900002.
12Randall Cobb29748600008.612.610.612.6
12Michael Gallup63645500005.
13Kenny Stills384361100012.115.113.615.1
13DeAndre Hopkins478564000010.715.713.115.6
14Mecole Hardman141148100010.811.811.311.8
14Tyreek Hill71866202807.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5500)

12vs PIT5895.0101100016.121.116.623.1
13vs NYJ55105.059100011.916.914.416.9
14@ CLE5665.07501708.213.210.713.2
15PROJ-Dodds5.2590.20007.112.39.7 (H=16)12.3 (H=28)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.4610.20307.61310.3 (H=18)13.0 (H=30)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0640.40008.813.811.3 (H=21)13.8 (H=34)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3500)

12vs PIT4682.04300004.
13vs NYJ4222.02100002.
14@ CLE6075.04500005.810.88.010.5
15PROJ-Dodds3.6450.20005.79.37.6 (H=13)9.4 (H=27)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.1530.20106.610.78.7 (H=16)10.8 (H=35)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0410.20005.39.37.4 (H=12)9.4 (H=27)

John Ross (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

14@ CLE3832.02800002.
15PROJ-Dodds2.7400.20005.27.96.6 (H=10)7.9 (H=18)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.7410.20005.386.7 (H=11)8.0 (H=18)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0560.400081210.0 (H=22)12.0 (H=37)

Stanley Morgan (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
13vs NYJ2220.000000000.00.0
14@ CLE010.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7210.10002.74.43.6 (H=4)4.4 (H=8)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.9)9 (-1.6)8 (-1.4)7 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.3)27 (+5.1)28 (+3.7)26 (+4.7)
11Dallas Goedert61633619.612.611.112.6
12Blake Jarwin29431701.
13Darren Fells42322318.310.39.310.3
14Travis Kelce779766013.020.014.519.0

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

12vs PIT2211.0700.
13vs NYJ2521.01201.
14@ CLE3544.04904.
15PROJ-Dodds2.2210. (H=4)4.9 (H=11)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.1180. (H=3)4.5 (H=9)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0160. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

12vs PIT3610.000000.00.0
13vs NYJ4765.05105.110.17.610.1
14@ CLE4521.0400.
15PROJ-Dodds1.9180. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.9180. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (-2.6)18T (-2.6)2 (-2.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.4)18T (+0.4)22 (+0.6) (+0.0)
11Jake Elliott1111445.05.0
12Brett Maher34009910.010.0
13Kaimi Fairbairn0044444.04.0
14Harrison Butker3322111113.013.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs PIT1111444.04.0
13vs NYJ2322889.09.0
14@ CLE4411131315.015.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.4)20 (+0.4)8 (-1.3)8 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.2)4 (-3.2)9T (-1.9)9T (-1.9)
11Philadelphia Eagles1729810000112.02.0
12Dallas Cowboys1328220000226.06.0
13Houston Texans2244831000555.05.0
14Kansas City Chiefs1627831000558.08.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1800)

12vs PIT16.0033931000556.06.0
13vs NYJ6.00271400004413.013.0
14@ CLE27.0033312000555.05.0
15PROJ-Dodds24.503782.20.90.500. (H=19)7.1 (H=33)
15PROJ-Tremblay25.003892.610.600. (H=22)7.7 (H=38)