Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at New York Giants

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 22, Giants 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense17.0 (-5.6) (30)67 (-44) (32)216 (-19) (23)
Giants Defense27.8 (+5.2) (28)115 (+2) (20)262 (+26) (26)

New York Giants Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Giants Offense19.0 (-3.6) (25)94 (-17) (26)218 (-17) (22)
Dolphins Defense30.7 (+8.0) (32)141 (+29) (31)257 (+20) (23)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Giants defense.

Miami's run offense has been the worst unit in the entire NFL across the board, ranking dead last in both rush attempts and yards per carry through 13 games this season. 4 different players have led the Miami Dolphins in total carries in an individual game this season, with only 1 player eclipsing 50 rushing yards in a game. Now, late in the season, Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin lead the way in Miami's backfield, with neither showing the game-changing talent on the ground necessary to overcome the Dolphins' weakness in the trenches. Miami's offensive line grades as the worst in the NFL, according to FootballGuys' Matt Bitonti, and their lack of talent in this regard makes in an uphill battle on the ground every week. Expect another long day for Dolphins' running backs this week against the Giants' impressive run defense, with Laird and Gaskin once again leading the team in carries.

The New York Giants' run defense is a surprisingly strong unit, especially given the high volume they have faced this season. The Giants have defended the fourth-most rushing attempts of any team in the NFL, yet they've allowed the sixth-best yards per carry of anyone. These two metrics seemingly offset, and their run defense has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, grading almost as a perfectly-average unit overall. The high rushing volume is typically driven by lopsided scores, as they have played from behind for almost all of their 2-11 start to the season. In closer matchups, when their opposition is unable to run the ball in high volume, the Giants' run defense is a stout unit, and even when they do face high volume, they have only allowed 3 100-yard rushers this season. Their defensive personnel resembles that of a top-end run defense, as they have elite run-stopping talent at all three levels. Along the defensive line, rookie Dexter Lawrence headlines one of the league's most underrated run-stopping fronts with B.J. Hill, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Leonard Williams, all making significant contributions. Then, at linebacker and safety, David Mayo and Antoine Bethea provide significant value exclusively against the run. Both players are liabilities against the pass, but they each have a nose for the football as above-average run stuffers. Overall, Miami's horrific rushing attack, led by Patrick Laird, is going to be at a severe disadvantage once again in Week 14, as their chances for tallying a second 50-yard rusher are slim once again.

Dolphins Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Giants defense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has led a high-volume passing attack that, in spite of some recent strong performances, has posted bottom-feeding numbers across the board. The Dolphins' passing game has posted 15 touchdowns to 17 interceptions on the season, the 26th and 31st-best numbers in the league, respectively, to this point. At just 5.3 net yards per attempt, the efficiency of the unit is abysmal, ranking 30th in the league, and it is primarily a product of a lack of talent in the receiving corps. DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson, the team's top two wide receivers following the injury to Preston Williams, are both in concussion protocol, and their status for this weekend's game is uncertain. Expect Isaiah Ford and Allen Hurns to step up in their absence, with Mike Gesicki contributing at the tight end position. Ford led the way with 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 92 receiving yards last weekend without Parker and Wilson. This weekend, a soft matchup and high passing volume could foster another unexpectedly strong day for Miami through the day.

The New York Giants' pass defense is one of the weakest in the NFL, as they have allowed 6 300-yard passers and 7 multi-touchdown performances through the air. Last weekend, a depleted Philadelphia Eagles' aerial attack posted 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, including over 132 yards and 12 catches from their two tight ends. The Giants struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with the sixth-lowest hurry rate of any team in the league, even their number-one pass rusher, Markus Golden's, pass-rushing numbers are misleading. Golden leads the way with 8.5 sacks on the season, but he is converting his pressures into sacks at a wildly unsustainable rate, and when he is not taking down opposing quarterbacks, he rarely applies pressure otherwise. In the secondary, the Giants are especially weak, with Janoris Jenkins and DeAndre Baker grading as two of the weakest cover-corners in the NFL. The Giants have allowed 10 separate 100-yard or multi-touchdown performances to opposing pass-catchers this season. This weekend, look for tight end Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker or Albert Wilson, if healthy, to capitalize on this soft matchup against one of the league's weakest pass defenses.

Giants Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Saquon Barkley's second NFL season has been a much rougher go than his rookie campaign, as he is seeing limited volume on the ground while posting extremely disappointing yardage and efficiency numbers. Saquon Barkley has not tallied a single 20-carry game yet this season, and New York's poor run blocking has hindered his production overall. Barkley has not eclipsed either 100 rushing yards or 4.5 yards per carry in any game since Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills. With just two rushing touchdowns on the season, Barkley's overall fantasy production has been extremely disappointing this season, especially considering he is the team's bell-cow running back, playing at least 80-percent of snaps in 8 out of his 9 games he has been healthy for. Overall, a soft matchup against the Miami Dolphins may be the perfect situation for Barkley to provide some fantasy value down the home stretch of the 2019 season, as their run defense ranks amongst the league's worst.

Miami's run defense has defended the third-most volume of any team in the league this season, which aligns perfectly with the fact that they have started the season 3-10 and almost always are playing from behind. The yardage and efficiency totals permitted by Miami's run defense have both been horrific, ranking in the bottom-10 of the league on both fronts. The Dolphins have allowed 6 100-yard rushers this season, and the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The lone bright spot in Miami's defensive front against the run has been linebacker Raekwon McMillan. McMillan, a second-year player out of Ohio State, has made an incredible jump this season, but he gets little support elsewhere in the team's front-seven. This soft matchup bodes extremely well for a struggling Giants' rushing attack. Expect Saquon Barkley to get back on track, potentially with just his 3rd 100-yard rushing day of the season, and first since Week 2, this weekend in as soft of a matchup as he will see all season. Much of Barkley's struggles this season have been a byproduct of an overmatched offensive line allowing penetration and contact in the backfield. This weekend, against one of the league's weakest front-sevens, if the Giants are unable to win the battle in the trenches, all hope may be lost for Barkley getting back on track at any point this season.

Giants Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

While rookie Daniel Jones missed the team's game last weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles due to an ankle injury, he reportedly will step back into his starting role immediately when his health permits. Whether it be Jones or Eli Manning under center, New York's passing attack has been a high-volume unit lacking efficiency, ranking 8th in the league in total pass attempts, but just 28th in net yards per attempt. While the team's receiving corps is banged up, rookie Darius Slayton's recent emergence has been encouraging. Over the last month, Slayton leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Slayton is an impressive downfield threat, making his significant volume through the air especially valuable for fantasy purposes. Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate are finally both healthy, but even with all three receivers available, Slayton has been the unexpected number-one option through the air recently.

The Miami Dolphins defend limited volume through the air, as their opponents rarely need to air it out to gain the upper hand, but when they do, Miami offers little resistance. The Dolphins rarely apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks, with just a 7.0-percent hurry rate this season, the second-lowest of any team in the NFL. Overall, they have allowed a stunning 31-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, one of the worst in the league. On the season, the Dolphins have only faced one passing attack (the Philadelphia Eagles two weeks ago) that surpassed 40 pass attempts, yet they've allowed multi-touchdown performances through the air in 11 out of 13 games. The pass-defending personnel on Miami's roster resembles that of a bottom-feeding defense. With Xavien Howard, the team's number-one cornerback, out with an injury, Miami's patchwork secondary featuring Nik Needham, Jomal Wiltz, Eric Rowe, and Adrian Colbert is one of the weakest in the league. The Dolphins' secondary has allowed a 100-yard receiver in 4 consecutive games, and 7 overall on the season. The New York Giants' struggling passing attack is primed for one of their strongest performances of the season here in Week 15 in an elite matchup.

Giants vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.4)26 (+3.4)26 (+3.2)26 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.5)27 (+5.5)27 (+4.7)27 (+5.1)
12Mitchell Trubisky76254127812718123.723.720.920.9
13Aaron Rodgers64213324340324030.630.628.128.1
14Carson Wentz8933503252059025.225.219.923.9

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6200)

12@ CLE63213921422545127.
13vs PHI7227393653132029.529.527.830.8
14@ NYJ72213724501765017.817.815.315.3
15PROJ-Dodds23362591.51.13160.220.620.620.6 (H=51)20.6 (H=60)
15PROJ-Tremblay22352491.51.13150.2202020.0 (H=49)20.0 (H=57)
15PROJ-Bloom20342321.614210.119.719.719.7 (H=47)19.7 (H=56)

Giants vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)19 (+0.5)19 (+0.4)19 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.4)20 (+0.1)17 (-1.5)18 (-0.4)
12Tarik Cohen426250972905.412.48.912.4
12David Montgomery471322032903.
13Jamaal Williams2810410442606.710.78.710.7
13Aaron Jones3911180641303.
14Boston Scott39105916669018.824.821.824.8
14Miles Sanders5015450542406.910.98.910.9

Patrick Laird (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4500)

12@ CLE23320010.000222.02.0
13vs PHI43105154.043010.814.814.816.8
14@ NYJ591548054.03808.612.610.612.6
15PROJ-Dodds11430.34.2310.19.81411.9 (H=26)14.0 (H=42)
15PROJ-Tremblay12460.44.1330.110.91513.0 (H=30)15.0 (H=48)
15PROJ-Bloom14450.44.0310.110.614.612.6 (H=29)14.6 (H=46)

Myles Gaskin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

12@ CLE16410011.0701.
13vs PHI16220011.0602.
14@ NYJ1345021.0601.
15PROJ-Dodds6220.21.91204.66.55.6 (H=8)6.5 (H=15)
15PROJ-Tremblay5190.21.61204.35.95.1 (H=7)5.9 (H=13)
15PROJ-Bloom4140.11.0602.63.63.1 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)

Giants vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.7)30 (+5.3)28 (+4.8)28 (+5.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.2)20 (+0.7)21 (+1.4)21 (+1.6)
12Allen Robinson69106131100019.
12Anthony Miller42967700007.713.710.713.7
13Davante Adams5210664200018.424.421.424.4
13Allen Lazard3733103100016.319.317.822.3
14Greg Ward77943400003.
14J.J. Arcega-Whiteside80322900002.

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6400)

12@ CLE63116.09100009.
13vs PHI59107.0159200027.934.931.437.9
14@ NYJ1822.02800002.
15PROJ-Dodds3.6550.30007.310.99.1 (H=13)10.9 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.5520.3000710.58.8 (H=12)10.5 (H=18)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=23)15.1 (H=34)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4700)

12@ CLE5774.042100010.
13vs PHI5843.03300003.
14@ NYJ5785.06800006.811.89.311.8
15PROJ-Dodds3.5460.30006.49.98.2 (H=13)9.9 (H=22)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.6480.30006.610.28.4 (H=13)10.2 (H=23)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0450.40006.910.98.9 (H=15)10.9 (H=26)

Isaiah Ford (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

13vs PHI1910.000000000.00.0
14@ NYJ5596.09200009.
15PROJ-Dodds2.4320.20004.46.85.6 (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.8380.200057.86.4 (H=9)7.8 (H=18)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0380.2000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=19)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

12@ CLE3076.03301403.
13vs PHI3855.032023106.311.38.811.3
14@ NYJ1721.0500000.
15PROJ-Dodds2.6260.21304.16.75.4 (H=8)6.7 (H=15)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.1220.21403.85.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=12)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Giants vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.2)14T (-0.6)15 (-0.4)13 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.9)30 (+7.4)30 (+6.2)30 (+7.3)
12Ben Braunecker5442900.
13Marcedes Lewis2721116.
14Zach Ertz7913991221.130.125.630.1

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

12@ CLE5773.02818.811.810.311.8
13vs PHI5375.079113.918.916.418.9
14@ NYJ5051.0600.
15PROJ-Dodds3.6400. (H=11)8.8 (H=21)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.0320. (H=8)7.4 (H=16)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0410. (H=14)9.5 (H=24)

Durham Smythe (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ CLE3920.000000.00.0
13vs PHI3732.01301.
14@ NYJ4111.0200.
15PROJ-Dodds0.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Giants vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.1)26 (+1.1)27 (+1.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.3)12 (-0.7) (+0.0)
12Eddy Pineiro2212777.07.0
13Mason Crosby1144778.08.0
14Jake Elliott1222555.05.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ CLE1133666.06.0
13vs PHI11235513.614.1
14@ NYJ7800212124.024.0

Giants vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+4.1)32 (+4.1)30T (+3.7)30T (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.8)5 (-2.8)12T (-1.4)12T (-1.4)
12Chicago Bears1424310100334.04.0
13Green Bay Packers13335030006610.010.0
14Philadelphia Eagles1725520000223.03.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $2600)

12@ CLE41.004671100033-1.0-1.0
13vs PHI31.0038621000443.03.0
14@ NYJ22.0037411000333.03.0
15PROJ-Dodds25.303562.310.600.4888.0 (H=19)8.0 (H=28)
15PROJ-Tremblay25.753512.41.10.600.4888.0 (H=19)8.0 (H=28)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.8)27 (+3.7)29 (+4.3)27 (+4.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+7.0)31 (+7.0)31 (+7.4)31 (+7.9)
11Josh Allen72213325630756136.436.433.833.8
12Baker Mayfield7524343273125027.927.924.627.6
13Carson Wentz7128463103100026.526.525.428.4
14Sam Darnold7120362702133020.820.818.118.1

Eli Manning (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5200)

12@ CHI000000000000.00.0
13vs GB000000000000.00.0
14@ PHI521530203202-1018.
15PROJ-Dodds22362561.71350.220.320.320.3 (H=54)20.3 (H=70)
15PROJ-Tremblay22362581.91.1480.221.421.421.4 (H=59)21.4 (H=77)
15PROJ-Bloom19321881.91110.116.716.716.7 (H=38)16.7 (H=50)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.6)25 (+2.8)27 (+3.3)26 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)19 (-0.0)21 (+0.7)20 (+0.2)
11Devin Singletary531575011407.
11Frank Gore1911270211804.
12Nick Chubb432110614358022.425.423.928.4
12Kareem Hunt438371329010.612.611.612.6
13Miles Sanders62178305522116.521.519.021.5
13Jay Ajayi929000000.
14Bilal Powell5619740321408.810.89.810.8
14Ty Montgomery239310333006.

Saquon Barkley (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7700)

12@ CHI581759032.010687.08.0
13vs GB641983073.032011.514.513.014.5
14@ PHI491766043.0106.
15PROJ-Dodds18790.64.5350.115.620.117.9 (H=35)20.1 (H=46)
15PROJ-Tremblay18750.54.2340.114.518.716.6 (H=31)18.7 (H=41)
15PROJ-Bloom20880.53.0170.214.717.716.2 (H=29)17.7 (H=37)

Elijhaa Penny (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ CHI300000.000000.00.0
13vs GB622010.0000.
14@ PHI400000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2800.0000.80.80.8 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)
15PROJ-Tremblay1300.3200.50.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.5)26 (+5.0)31 (+5.5)27 (+5.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+13.1)31 (+16.3)31 (+15.1)32 (+18.7)
11John Brown71149137200025.734.730.237.7
11Cole Beasley65443800003.
12Jarvis Landry711310148200026.836.831.839.8
12Odell Beckham758684100014.420.417.420.4
13Alshon Jeffery64169137100019.728.724.231.7
13J.J. Arcega-Whiteside27211510007.
14Robby Anderson66117116114018.025.021.528.0
14Demaryius Thomas37422810008.810.89.810.8

Darius Slayton (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4700)

12@ CHI5174.06700006.710.78.710.7
13vs GB6396.04400004.410.47.410.4
14@ PHI4285.0154200027.432.429.935.4
15PROJ-Dodds4.0610.50009.113.111.1 (H=20)13.1 (H=36)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.1630.50009.313.411.4 (H=21)13.4 (H=38)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0630.60009.914.912.4 (H=24)14.9 (H=45)

Sterling Shepard (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5400)

12@ CHI5795.015012203.
13vs GB5773.0401000101311.513.0
14@ PHI4874.02801803.
15PROJ-Dodds4.6550.41408.312.910.6 (H=20)12.9 (H=31)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.5530.41408.112.610.4 (H=19)12.6 (H=29)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0440.51708.112.110.1 (H=18)12.1 (H=27)

Golden Tate (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5900)

12@ CHI5073.03310009.312.310.812.3
13vs GB000.000000000.00.0
14@ PHI4651.01100001.
15PROJ-Dodds4.0500.30006.810.88.9 (H=13)10.9 (H=21)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.3450.30006.39.68.0 (H=11)9.7 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0420.30006108.1 (H=11)10.1 (H=18)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)17 (-0.4)14 (-0.4)18 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.0)12 (-2.5)10 (-2.2)12 (-2.7)
11Dawson Knox51323219.
12Demetrius Harris51222002.
13Dallas Goedert40766606.612.69.612.6
14Ryan Griffin311800.

Evan Engram (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4900)

12@ CHI000.000000.00.0
13vs GB000.000000.00.0
14@ PHI000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.1240. (H=4)5.7 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.5280.246.55.3 (H=5)6.5 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Kaden Smith (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

12@ CHI5965.01717.712.710.212.7
13vs GB6186.070071310.013.0
14@ PHI5052.0900.
15PROJ-Dodds2.3220. (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7160. (H=4)4.5 (H=7)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0220.3475.5 (H=8)7.0 (H=16)

Rhett Ellison (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3300)

12@ CHI000.000000.00.0
13vs GB000.000000.00.0
14@ PHI000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.4150. (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+2.8)32 (+2.8)31T (+3.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.7)31 (+4.7)31 (+5.6) (+0.0)
11Steve Hauschka3344131315.015.0
12Austin Seibert2355111112.012.0
13Jake Elliott3422111113.013.0
14Sam Ficken3312101012.012.0

Aldrick Rosas (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ CHI0222222.02.0
13vs GB2211778.08.0
14@ PHI1122555.05.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.4)28 (+2.4)30T (+3.7)30T (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.0)19T (+0.0)15T (-1.4)15T (-1.4)
11Buffalo Bills20303701009910.010.0
12Cleveland Browns2428442000888.08.0
13Philadelphia Eagles3740931000551.01.0
14New York Jets2136221000444.04.0

New York Giants (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2700)

12@ CHI19.0033522000667.07.0
13vs GB31.003220000000-1.0-1.0
14@ PHI23.0041830100555.05.0
15PROJ-Dodds22.003292.71.20.700. (H=25)9.6 (H=37)
15PROJ-Tremblay22.253332.31.10.700.4999.0 (H=23)9.0 (H=33)