Matchup Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jaguars 20, Raiders 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense17.7 (-5.0) (28)111 (+0) (14)240 (+3) (12)
Raiders Defense28.2 (+5.5) (29)108 (-3) (16)268 (+32) (28)

Oakland Raiders Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Raiders Offense19.8 (-2.8) (24)121 (+9) (11)234 (-1) (15)
Jaguars Defense25.9 (+3.3) (25)141 (+29) (30)232 (-3) (14)

Jaguars Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Leonard Fournette struggled for the second straight week as he led an uninspiring Jaguars rushing offense with just 50 rushing yards from 15 carries. After starting the season averaging 20.4 carries per game with four games of 20 or more rushing attempts, Fournette has dipped to just 14.4 carries per game since Week 9 with over 15 carries in only one game. Efficiency has also been an issue for Fournette in recent weeks, as he has averaged over 3.6 yards per carry in just one of his last five games while exceeding 50 rushing yards just once. His offensive line has not played as well in recent weeks due to excessive penalties and an ankle injury plaguing center Brandon Linder. Fournette remains heavily involved in the passing game, but this recent lack of usage on the ground certainly sheds doubt on the fantasy prospects of Jacksonville’s bell-cow back. On another note, the re-introduction of Gardner Minshew as starting quarterback now adds back in that extra dimension of upside on the ground. Minshew’s risk-taking playing style and athletic ability led to him rushing for 28 or more yards in half of his starts earlier this season, and he put up 31 rushing yards in last week’s game.

The Raiders faltered against Derrick Henry and the Titans last week, giving up over 103 yards and two touchdowns to Henry, who had the best fantasy day (non-PPR) any running back has had this season against the Raiders. Oakland also allowed a pair of rushing touchdowns to the Chiefs in Week 13, but they had done a decent job at limiting yardage from running backs in many of their preceding games. Limiting big plays has been a calling card of this rushing defense, as they are one of only a few teams in the league to have not yet allowed a run play of more than 40 yards. They are also giving up just 4.1 rushing yards per attempt, which is slightly better than league-average. Strong run-stoppers on the interior and decent play from their safeties have helped this team excel in spots against the run. Linebacker Tahir Whitehead, while questionable in pass coverage, has played relatively well against the run also. While not a slam dunk matchup by any means for Leonard Fournette, the Raiders do still offer some level of opportunity for him to get back on track.

Jaguars Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Raiders defense.

Gardner Minshew had quite the uninspiring game for his first start back under center since Week 9 for the Jaguars, passing for just 162 yards and a touchdown last week as he was completely unwilling to throw a deep ball. Last week was certainly a contrast from what Minshew displayed earlier this season, as he was no stranger to taking deep shots at his big-bodied wide receivers. Minshew will be without one of those receivers though, as top target D.J. Chark may have caught his last pass this season. Chark suffered a foot injury in last week’s game and will be unavailable this week. This leaves Dede Westbrook as the next best option as he should slide into Chark’s position with Conley lining up opposite him. Westbrook has battled injuries of his own this season, but he has seen at least seven targets in three straight games and should offer a decent option on the outside. Leonard Fournette is the other primary target for Minshew, especially if those underneath passing routes continue to prevail in the minds of Jacksonville play-callers. Fournette has been on fire as a receiver this season and should continue to be a focal point of this entire offense.

The Raiders have consistently been one of the worst teams in football against the pass. They have coughed up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the second-most passing touchdowns (30), the highest average yards per pass play (8.6) to opposing passing offenses. Big plays have been a problem for this defense as they lead the league in explosive passing plays allowed, giving up 63 receptions of 20 or more yards and 15 receptions of 40 or more yards. Slot receivers have given Jacksonville fits as cornerback Lamarcus Joyner has been the weakest link in this secondary. This will bode well for Dede Westbrook if the Jaguars can rotate him into his usual slot position this week, but Westbrook will likely run more routes on the outside in place of the injured D.J. Chark. Leonard Fournette should also have a great chance at making plays through the air this week, as these Raiders linebackers have been terrible in pass coverage while the entire defense has struggled to effectively tackle. The defensive line has done a decent job at applying pressure and should be an even match for the Jaguars in the trenches, but nothing else about this passing matchup is even as Gardner Minshew should have plenty of opportunities to get back on track this week.

Raiders Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Raiders went without lead running back Josh Jacobs last week as he was scratched just a few hours from game time due to a fractured shoulder that he has reportedly been playing through since Week 7. Without Jacobs, the Raiders leaned on DeAndre Washington to shoulder the load as he led the backfield with 14 carries for 53 yards against the Titans. Washington saw 63 percent of the snaps compared to 38 percent from pass-catching specialist Jalen Richard, who rushed a season-high seven times but remains an ancillary option on the ground. Washington offers what should be a relatively low ceiling based on his plodder running style that has led to him averaging just 3.2 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns in limited action since the 2017 season. The Raiders did sign running back Rod Smith earlier in the week, however, mid-week reports are indicating that Jacobs could be ready to suit up on Sunday based on positive MRI results. Keep a close eye on this situation, but if Jacobs were to make it back into the lineup without any reported limitations, he would immediately be a fantasy-relevant option against this exploitable Jaguars run defense.

The Jaguars maintained their status as one of the worst run defenses in football last week after allowing the Chargers to put up 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns against them in the blowout loss. This came after Jacksonville gave up two touchdowns to a terrible Tampa Bay rushing offense in Week 13 and over 100 yards to four separate running backs in their three previous games from Weeks 9-12. This defense has now given up multiple rushing touchdowns in four straight games and has allowed over 100 rushing yards to six running backs on the season--five of which have come in the last five games. The stalwart of this defensive line has been Calais Campbell, but even he had a rough outing last week as he was manhandled at the line of scrimmage by a below-average Chargers offensive line. Backup linebacker Donald Payne, starting for the injured Myles Jack, played extremely poorly alongside the equally struggling Quincy Williams. Very poor play from these linebackers has been the top issue for the Jaguars run defense all season, and there is no improvement in sight as this defense should continue to be highly exploitable.

Raiders Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Raiders passing offense bounced back last week as Derek Carr played turnover-free football for the first time in three weeks while passing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Carr has been good in spots this season, but he has certainly shown some inconsistency and questionable decision-making as shown from his eight interceptions. Part of the issue for this passing offense has been a lack of overall talent and weapons though. While Tyrell Williams is a good player, he should not be a WR1 for any offense and has certainly not looked the part for the Raiders--especially after doing virtually nothing last week despite a plush matchup. Darren Waller has been the clear standout and favorite target for Carr, and he had another big game last week catching all six targets for 73 yards--the third time in four weeks he has finished with at least six receptions and 70 yards. Touchdowns have come at a premium for Waller though, as he has scored in just two games and is currently riding a six-game touchdown drought.

The entire Jaguars defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks as they are getting manhandled both through the air and on the ground. Since their Week 10 bye, the Jaguars are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. While part of that scoring number may be misleading with three rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks factored in, this defense has still been below average against the pass--particularly last week as they allowed four passing touchdowns and a slew of big plays to the Chargers. Cornerback D.J. Hayden has been the best defensive back for this group, while A.J. Bouye has seen his play drop off dramatically through the second half of this season. Bouye actually offers a plus matchup for Tyrell Williams, who is expected to see shadow coverage from Bouye. All Jaguars linebackers have been virtually non-existent in pass coverage, which really came to light last week as they gave up nine receptions for 141 yards to Chargers running backs. Tight ends have also found a ton of success against this defense, as Chargers tight ends up up a pair of touchdowns to mark the sixth and seventh touchdowns the Jaguars have given up to tight ends this season.

Raiders vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+4.9)31 (+4.9)31 (+4.5)29 (+4.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.8)21 (+2.7)21 (+2.5)21 (+3.3)
11Ryan Finley6313311150134709.
12Sam Darnold59202931520416131.431.428.231.2
13Patrick Mahomes66152917510325121.321.319.519.5
14Ryan Tannehill62212739131419032.532.528.531.5

Gardner Minshew (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5500)

12@ TEN000000000000.00.0
13vs TB4516271471128011.211.211.711.7
14vs LAC66243716210631015.215.213.613.6
15PROJ-Dodds22362601.40.94220.120.520.520.5 (H=54)20.5 (H=68)
15PROJ-Tremblay22362581.40.94210.120.320.320.3 (H=53)20.3 (H=66)
15PROJ-Bloom20321801.315240. (H=36)16.2 (H=45)

Raiders vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.3)23 (+2.4)24 (+2.6)24 (+2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.6)27 (+4.5)28 (+5.2)27 (+4.7)
11Joe Mixon37158613117016.317.316.817.3
11Giovani Bernard333300311604.
12LeVeon Bell36124905559010.815.813.315.8
12Ty Montgomery12520212102.
13Darwin Thompson2411441000010.410.410.410.4
13LeSean McCoy245101332009.012.010.512.0
14Derrick Henry37181032116022.923.923.426.9
14Khari Blasingame13000224704.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7600)

12@ TEN8224972129.062027.936.932.436.9
13vs TB6514380119.05309.118.113.618.1
14vs LAC511550063.01306.
15PROJ-Dodds18760.45.3390.114.519.817.2 (H=35)19.8 (H=46)
15PROJ-Tremblay19800.45.1380.114.819.917.4 (H=36)19.9 (H=46)
15PROJ-Bloom20910.54.0150. (H=32)18.2 (H=40)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3800)

12@ TEN400010.000000.00.0
13vs TB800010.000000.00.0
14vs LAC1527020.0000.
15PROJ-Dodds2701.0701.42.41.9 (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
15PROJ-Tremblay1400.8701.11.91.5 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)
15PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Raiders vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.0)20 (+1.9)20 (+2.4)9T (+2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.7)9T (-6.0)11 (-4.4)9 (-6.3)
11Auden Tate48645600005.
11Tyler Boyd61310011001.
12Robby Anderson525486100014.618.616.618.6
12Braxton Berrios3116900006.
13Tyreek Hill54855501-405.110.17.610.1
13Mecole Hardman2600001900.
14A.J. Brown52751532113028.633.631.136.6
14Corey Davis47423400003.

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4600)

12@ TEN7498.06900006.914.910.914.9
13vs TB5785.0601000121716.519.0
14vs LAC4476.02500002.
15PROJ-Dodds4.9560.30007.412.39.9 (H=17)12.4 (H=34)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.9580.40008.213.110.7 (H=20)13.2 (H=37)
15PROJ-Bloom6.0560.400081411.1 (H=21)14.1 (H=42)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

12@ TEN6594.04900004.
13vs TB5554.05700005.
14vs LAC5731.0700000.
15PROJ-Dodds3.6550.30007.310.99.1 (H=17)10.9 (H=34)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7570.30007.511.29.4 (H=19)11.2 (H=36)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0480.30006.610.68.6 (H=16)10.6 (H=33)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ TEN3122.01800001.
13vs TB3921.01100001.
14vs LAC3431.01200001.
15PROJ-Dodds2.5340.20004.67.15.9 (H=8)7.1 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.8370.30005.58.36.9 (H=11)8.3 (H=26)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0350.20004.77.76.2 (H=9)7.7 (H=22)

Michael Walker (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ TEN000.00000000-2.0-1.0
13vs TB921.0600000.
14vs LAC011.0900000.
15PROJ-Dodds1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.10002.94.63.8 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)

Raiders vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.7)29 (+2.7)30 (+2.7)29 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.2)20 (+0.9)20 (+1.1)19 (+0.8)
11Tyler Eifert23432102.
12Ryan Griffin55331317.310.38.810.3
13Travis Kelce61959009.014.011.514.0
14Jonnu Smith49432918.911.910.411.9

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3100)

12@ TEN4544.03603.
13vs TB4741.0600.
14vs LAC4554.030191311.013.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.6290. (H=7)6.7 (H=17)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.8310. (H=7)7.1 (H=19)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0260. (H=8)7.4 (H=20)

Raiders vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)13 (-0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.4)18T (+0.4)19T (+0.4) (+0.0)
11Randy Bullock1211445.05.0
12Sam Ficken2344101010.010.0
13Harrison Butker11558810.010.0
14Ryan Succop0166666.06.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ TEN2200669.09.0
13vs TB1100335.05.0
14vs LAC1111444.04.0

Raiders vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-0.9)8T (-0.9)30T (-0.7)30T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.5)31 (+5.5)30 (+6.9)30 (+6.9)
11Cincinnati Bengals1738631100778.08.0
12New York Jets320811101111118.018.0
13Kansas City Chiefs933222101141420.020.0
14Tennessee Titans2135620101161610.010.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ TEN42.0047110200551.01.0
13vs TB28.0031540100666.06.0
14vs LAC45.005251000011-3.0-3.0
15PROJ-Dodds24.703642.10.80.600. (H=17)7.4 (H=25)
15PROJ-Tremblay25.5035920.90.500.4777.0 (H=16)7.0 (H=23)

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.3)22 (+1.3)22 (+1.5)22 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+5.1)24 (+5.1)23T (+4.3)24 (+4.6)
11Jacoby Brissett66152414811212117.617.616.116.1
12Ryan Tannehill53141825920740237.037.032.433.4
13Jameis Winston76213326800620015.415.410.711.7
14Philip Rivers4316223143010027.727.724.627.6

Derek Carr (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5600)

12@ NYJ4315271270111106.
13@ KC6020302221237013.813.811.611.6
14vs TEN63253426320217022.922.920.220.2
15PROJ-Dodds21312401.60.8270.118.918.918.9 (H=44)18.9 (H=58)
15PROJ-Tremblay20312361.60.9270.118.618.618.6 (H=43)18.6 (H=56)
15PROJ-Bloom17261781.10.6260.113.913.913.9 (H=26)13.9 (H=34)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.8)29 (+5.1)30 (+5.5)30 (+6.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+17.9)32 (+16.6)32 (+17.4)32 (+20.1)
11Marlon Mack21141091000016.916.916.919.9
11Jonathan Williams311311601131014.715.715.218.7
12Derrick Henry401915921116029.530.528.032.5
12Dion Lewis85210212404.
13Peyton Barber3017442000016.416.418.418.4
13Dare Ogunbowale23100221201.
14Austin Ekeler318101054112127.331.329.337.3
14Melvin Gordon29125515529014.419.416.919.4

DeAndre Washington (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4700)

12@ NYJ13619011.0001.
13@ KC1525033.04404.
14vs TEN401453176.043015.621.618.621.6
15PROJ-Dodds11470.33.1220.19.312.410.9 (H=19)12.4 (H=33)
15PROJ-Tremblay9410.32.8230.18.811.610.2 (H=17)11.6 (H=29)
15PROJ-Bloom7310.22.0180. (H=10)8.7 (H=18)

Josh Jacobs (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7000)

12@ NYJ231034011.0203.
13@ KC3417104000.00010.410.410.413.4
14vs TEN000000.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds9420.30.000666.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=6)
15PROJ-Tremblay10490.30.5407.17.67.4 (H=8)7.6 (H=9)
15PROJ-Bloom18880.60.00012.412.412.4 (H=20)12.4 (H=22)

Jalen Richard (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

12@ NYJ2324076.04705.
13@ KC1212021.0600.
14vs TEN24728032.01804.
15PROJ-Dodds6280.22.21705.77.96.9 (H=10)8.0 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay5220.21.41104.55.95.3 (H=6)6.0 (H=12)
15PROJ-Bloom2502.0160. (H=3)4.8 (H=8)

Alec Ingold (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ NYJ910000.000000.00.0
13@ KC1014022.01301.
14vs TEN81-1000.000-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
15PROJ-Dodds1500.8400.91.71.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay1500.5400.91.41.2 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.2)13 (-1.6)13 (-1.5)13 (-1.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.9)13 (-4.1)14 (-3.1)14 (-4.5)
11Marcus Johnson63443810009.813.811.813.8
11Chester Rogers322111011802.
12A.J. Brown3754135100019.523.521.526.5
12Corey Davis39322900002.
13Breshad Perriman44658700008.713.711.213.7
13Mike Evans631145300005.
14Mike Williams453263100012.314.313.314.3
14Keenan Allen42658300008.313.310.813.3

Tyrell Williams (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4800)

12@ NYJ4562.01800001.
13@ KC5441.0900000.
14vs TEN5243.03500003.
15PROJ-Dodds3.6520.40007.611.29.4 (H=17)11.2 (H=27)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.6520.40007.611.29.4 (H=17)11.2 (H=27)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=18)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

12@ NYJ5322.0500000.
13@ KC4232.01400001.
14vs TEN5331.0500000.
15PROJ-Dodds2.6300.20004.26.85.5 (H=8)6.8 (H=15)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.7320.300057.76.4 (H=10)7.7 (H=19)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0140.1000243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=6)

Keelan Doss (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ NYJ000.000000000.00.0
13@ KC3311.01100001.
14vs TEN2833.02600002.
15PROJ-Dodds1.6200.20003.24.84.0 (H=4)4.8 (H=10)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7230.20003.55.24.4 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0280.10003.46.44.9 (H=6)6.4 (H=16)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.1)11 (-1.0)17 (-0.3)11 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.5)13 (-1.8)15 (-1.1)13 (-1.9)
11Eric Ebron29442702.
12MyCole Pruitt27112002.
13O.J. Howard63656106.111.18.611.1
14Hunter Henry38423919.911.910.911.9

Darren Waller (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5500)

12@ NYJ5363.04104.
13@ KC5597.01000101713.520.0
14vs TEN6166.07307.313.38.312.3
15PROJ-Dodds5.9690.59.915.812.8 (H=26)15.8 (H=43)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.9720.510.216.113.2 (H=28)16.1 (H=44)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0610.48.513.511.0 (H=20)13.5 (H=32)

Derek Carrier (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ NYJ710.000000.00.0
13@ KC922.0101798.09.0
14vs TEN800.000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds1.2120.11.832.4 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=6)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (-0.2)24T (-0.2)19T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+0.9)24T (+0.9)19 (+0.4) (+0.0)
11Adam Vinatieri1144777.07.0
12Ryan Succop0066666.06.0
13Matt Gay2222888.08.0
14Mike Badgley11669910.010.0

Daniel Carlson (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ NYJ1200334.04.0
13@ KC1201333.03.0
14vs TEN0033333.03.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+0.5)24T (+0.5)24 (+1.3)24 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.5)24 (+2.5)28 (+3.6)28 (+3.6)
11Indianapolis Colts1330821000448.08.0
12Tennessee Titans2036930100556.06.0
13Tampa Bay Buccaneers1124252201252523.023.0
14Los Angeles Chargers1025220000226.06.0

Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $3200)

12@ NYJ34.0040110100332.02.0
13@ KC40.0025910000110.00.0
14vs TEN42.005520100022-2.0-2.0
15PROJ-Dodds20.103562.40.90.700. (H=23)9.8 (H=32)
15PROJ-Tremblay20.003622.40.90.700. (H=23)9.8 (H=32)