Matchup Analysis: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Texans 24, Titans 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Houston Texans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Texans Offense24.4 (+1.7) (11)130 (+18) (7)246 (+10) (10)
Titans Defense19.6 (-3.0) (9)102 (-10) (10)260 (+24) (25)

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense24.5 (+1.8) (10)128 (+16) (8)219 (-17) (21)
Texans Defense23.8 (+1.1) (20)110 (-1) (19)265 (+29) (27)

Texans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Texans ground game has taken a step back in recent weeks with their combination of running backs failing to eclipse 90 rushing yards for three straight weeks. Carlos Hyde continues to lead the way with touches as he out-carried Duke Johnson 14-to-1 last week, but Hyde has failed to eclipse 75 rushing yards since their Week 10 bye and has visibly slowed since his hot start to the year. Workload also has a part to play in Hyde’s lack of success, as he has averaged just 12 carries per game in the last four weeks after starting the season with an average of just under 17 carries per game. Duke Johnson started gaining steam with more involvement on the ground in recent weeks, but last week’s one-carry performance reminded everyone of his lack of involvement as a rusher in this offense. Deshaun Watson found the end zone twice on the ground last week as he added 44 rushing yards, with almost all of it coming in garbage time. Watson cooled off for a few weeks with 12 or fewer rushing yards in each of his preceding three games, but he has now rushed for over 30 yards in seven of 13 games this season and is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (7) amongst quarterbacks.

The Titans run defense has softened up during the second half of the season, ever since they allowed 146 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Christian McCaffrey in Week 9. In those past five games, Tennessee has allowed opposing running backs to average 99 rushing yards per game with six rushing touchdowns, good for the fifth-most fantasy points per game since Week 9. While they have given up at least one rushing touchdown in three straight weeks, this defense has played better in their last two games as they have held backs to just 3.6 yards per rush attempt. Top run-defending lineman Jurrell Casey was banged up during part of that rough patch against the run, but he is now back to near full speed. Linebacker Jayon Brown has also picked up his play as the season has progressed, blossoming into an above-average linebacker in his third year with the Titans. The Texans offensive line has done a decent job in run-blocking, but they will be tested here in their first matchup of the season with the Titans. This Titans team has also yet to allow a rushing touchdown to quarterbacks with just one quarterback rushing for more than 30 yards against them this season. While Deshaun Watson remains an elite rushing threat, he at least shouldn’t be able to run wild with ease against this defense.

Texans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Deshaun Watson attempted a season-high 50 passes while completing below 60 percent of those attempts for just the second time this year in last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos. It was a near-complete reversal of fortunes for this Texans passing offense that looked impeccable in their win over the Patriots in Week 13. The injury to Will Fuller certainly leaves a void in this offense as it allowed almost all of the attention to be placed on DeAndre Hopkins, who actually still performed well last week with seven receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins has had some quiet weeks this season, but he has now amassed at least 80 yards in three of his last four games with three touchdowns over that span. Kenny Stills has done nothing when given more opportunities from Will Fuller being absent this season, so it is tough to rely upon him moving forward. Fuller remains questionable, so his status will require monitoring coming into this week’s game.

Considering the injuries to the Titans secondary, they did a relatively good job in coverage against the Raiders last week. Tye Smith, in particular, has now played well in back-to-back starts in place of the injured Adoree Jackson. Jackson continues to be questionable with a foot injury, so Smith would likely roll back out as the starter if Jackson misses a third straight game. Squaring off against the likes of DeAndre Hopkins will be an entirely different challenge for Smith this week though, as Hopkins should have a clear edge against both Smith and Trumaine Brock, who was recently acquired from the Cardinals and started for Tennessee last week. While Titans safeties and linebackers have put together a solid body of work in coverage, they have been susceptible to tight ends in recent weeks, giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to the position since Week 10. However, all in all, DeAndre Hopkins and this Texans passing offense should have a relatively even matchup against the red hot Titans defense.

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Texans defense.

The Titans rushing offense continues to play as one of the best units in the league as they have now exceeded 160 rushing yards in four straight games. Derrick Henry has been the top fantasy running back in football over the second half of the season, averaging 132 rushing yards per game, 6.7 yards per carry, and double the touchdowns (8) of any other running back since Week 9. He has exceeded 100 rushing yards in four straight games with two rushing touchdowns in three of those outings. The Titans offensive line has been blocking extraordinarily well down the stretch, especially as all starters have remained healthy. Ryan Tannehill also continues to show some upside with his legs as he ran for 19 yards last week and had exceeded 35 rushing yards in three of his last five outings. The one thing to watch for this week will be Henry’s hamstring injury, as it limited him in the second half last week to the point that Henry sat out the entire fourth quarter. His practice status may be murky as Henry has been on a game management plan necessitating very few practices, so keep an eye on his status late in the week and leading into Sunday morning.

Leading into Week 14, the Texans rushing defense had been uncharacteristically exposed. From Weeks 11 to 13, the Texans allowed 157.3 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry to running backs while giving up the most fantasy points per game in the league to the position over that span. This reeling run defense showed signs of improvement in Week 14 though, as they limited the Broncos backfield to just over 3.1 yards per rush attempt and 75 rushing yards despite facing an extremely negative game script after the Broncos jumped out to a huge 31-3 lead at halftime. This run defense had been one of the better groups in football prior to their Week 10 bye, and last week showed much of what we saw through the first half of the season. Zach Cunningham is an above-average linebacker against the run, while D.J. Reader is one of the better run-plugging defensive linemen in the league. With that, the rest of this Texans defensive line--notable Angelo Blackson on the right side--can be beaten in the trenches, particularly by a Titans offensive line that is playing very well. Derrick Henry is a stout matchup for nearly any defense in football right now, and he should have the edge in this one.

Titans Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Texans defense.

This Titans offense has come to life in recent weeks as Ryan Tannehill continues to light the league on fire with his spectacular play. Tannehill has passed for multiple touchdowns in four straight games and has crossed the 300-yard mark three times this season, including last week when he passed for a season-high 391 yards with three touchdowns. Tannehill is also now leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.9) as he is showing little fear to push the ball downfield. That was on full display last week as he completed a number of deep balls, including a career-high 91-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Brown. Brown has morphed into the WR1 for Tennessee, leading the team in targets in five of the last seven games while exceeding 130 yards with at least one touchdown in two of his last three outings. The floor with Brown is certainly low given this Titans passing offense could easily amass fewer than 200 yards in any given week, but he is garnering serious attention from Tannehill and has the talent to break a big play in any given week.

The Texans pass defense played as poorly as they have all season last week as they allowed rookie quarterback Drew Lock to pass for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start. It was an astonishingly bad performance by this defense that basically lost the game for Houston within the first two quarters. However, last week’s outing actually was more of the same from what has been a terrible pass defense all season. The Texans have given up more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than any other team since Week 10 and have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game on the season. The Texans cornerbacks have actually done a decent job in coverage against wide receivers over the past four weeks, as only one wide receiver has crossed the 50-yard mark. They have allowed both opposing tight ends and running backs to do plenty of damage though, as Noah Fant found the end zone with over 100 yards last week while Mark Andrews also scored and finished with 75 yards in Week 11. Opposing running backs have scored five times through the air in the last four weeks as well. While the Titans don’t use running backs too often in the passing game, tight end Jonnu Smith should be in for a favorable matchup while outside receiver A.J. Brown should also have the edge against the likes of Gareon Conley.

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.3)16 (-0.5)17 (-0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.1)13 (-2.1)15 (-1.5)15 (-1.5)
12Nick Foles86324827200320015.615.614.914.9
13Jacoby Brissett722540319121-1017.917.914.717.7
14Derek Carr63253426320217022.922.920.220.2

Deshaun Watson (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $6800)

12vs IND59193029821310022.922.919.919.9
13vs NE561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9
14vs DEN802850292126442333330.130.1
15PROJ-Dodds23342611.60.95260.3232323.0 (H=55)23.0 (H=67)
15PROJ-Tremblay23352551.515230.321.921.921.9 (H=51)21.9 (H=61)
15PROJ-Bloom22332672.114180.424.924.924.9 (H=63)24.9 (H=77)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.5)22 (+1.7)20 (+1.0)22 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.8)29 (+5.7)27 (+4.9)28 (+5.1)
12Leonard Fournette822497212962027.936.932.436.9
12Tyler Ervin000000000.
13Nyheim Hines3142212218010.
13Jordan Wilkins321147032905.
14DeAndre Washington40145317643015.621.618.621.6
14Jalen Richard247280321804.

Carlos Hyde (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

12vs IND291667000.0006.
13vs NE211017011.0502.
14vs DEN411473032.0507.
15PROJ-Dodds14590.30.9608.39.28.8 (H=14)9.2 (H=20)
15PROJ-Tremblay14570.30.9608.198.6 (H=13)9.0 (H=19)
15PROJ-Bloom14550.40.0007.97.97.9 (H=11)7.9 (H=15)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4100)

12vs IND30522011.080343.54.0
13vs NE38936065.0541152017.520.0
14vs DEN4215086.04004.510.57.510.5
15PROJ-Dodds6260.13.4260. (H=13)9.8 (H=25)
15PROJ-Tremblay6250.13.0240. (H=11)9.1 (H=22)
15PROJ-Bloom4140.14.0340. (H=16)11.2 (H=32)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.4)14 (-0.9)16 (-0.9)16 (-0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-7.8)7 (-6.6)4 (-7.3)8 (-6.4)
12Dede Westbrook74986900006.914.910.914.9
12Chris Conley65944900004.
13Zach Pascal72107109000010.917.914.420.9
13Marcus Johnson67645500005.
14Tyrell Williams52433500003.
14Keelan Doss28332600002.

DeAndre Hopkins (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $8000)

12vs IND5986.094200021.427.424.427.4
13vs NE4785.064000010.715.713.115.6
14vs DEN80137.01201112019.226.222.729.2
15PROJ-Dodds7.3840.500011.418.715.0 (H=25)18.7 (H=39)
15PROJ-Tremblay7.4840.502011.61915.3 (H=26)19.0 (H=41)
15PROJ-Bloom7.0880.7000132016.5 (H=29)20.0 (H=44)

Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4100)

12vs IND3721.0600000.
13vs NE3843.061100012.115.113.615.1
14vs DEN7722.0800000.
15PROJ-Dodds2.9420.20005.48.36.9 (H=11)8.3 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.6370.20004.97.56.2 (H=9)7.5 (H=15)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0470.40007.110.18.6 (H=16)10.1 (H=26)

Will Fuller (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5600)

12vs IND53117.01400000142117.524.0
13vs NE4221.0800000.
14vs DEN000.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=5)6.4 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=5)6.5 (H=9)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Keke Coutee (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3400)

12vs IND000.000000000.00.0
13vs NE000.000000000.00.0
14vs DEN5785.06800006.811.87.310.8
15PROJ-Dodds1.9240.100034.94.0 (H=4)4.9 (H=9)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.8230.10002.94.73.8 (H=3)4.7 (H=8)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0520.30007119.0 (H=16)11.0 (H=37)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.6)26 (+2.1)26 (+1.6)26 (+2.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.8)29 (+6.0)27 (+3.6)28 (+5.2)
12Nick OLeary45443603.
13Jack Doyle6811673113.319.316.319.3
14Foster Moreau26331417.410.48.910.4

Jordan Akins (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3000)

12vs IND2843.02602.
13vs NE3111.01901.
14vs DEN5194.04904.
15PROJ-Dodds2.5290. (H=7)6.6 (H=17)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.6300. (H=7)6.8 (H=18)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0250. (H=4)5.1 (H=11)

Darren Fells (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

12vs IND5221.02402.
13vs NE4232.02318.310.39.310.3
14vs DEN4542.0200.
15PROJ-Dodds2.4250. (H=6)6.1 (H=14)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=6)5.9 (H=13)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-1.4)5 (-1.4)7T (-1.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-1.9)5 (-1.9)7 (-1.7) (+0.0)
12Josh Lambo2200669.09.0
13Adam Vinatieri1422555.05.0
14Daniel Carlson0033333.03.0

Kaimi Fairbairn (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs IND2222888.08.0
13vs NE0044444.04.0
14vs DEN1133668.08.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.5)9T (-0.7)9T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.8)17 (-0.8)3 (-4.4)3 (-4.4)
12Jacksonville Jaguars4247110200551.01.0
13Indianapolis Colts312926020010109.09.0
14Oakland Raiders425520100022-2.0-2.0

Houston Texans (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2700)

12vs IND17.0029610000112.02.0
13vs NE22.0044831000555.05.0
14vs DEN38.0039111000332.02.0
15PROJ-Dodds24.903532.40.80.600. (H=17)7.7 (H=25)
15PROJ-Tremblay25.503561.80.80.500. (H=13)6.6 (H=19)

Texans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.8)30 (+4.8)27 (+3.7)30 (+4.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+6.0)30 (+6.0)30 (+6.2)30 (+6.7)
11Lamar Jackson61172422240986035.735.733.533.5
12Jacoby Brissett67162512900420114.514.513.213.2
13Tom Brady87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14Drew Lock59222730931315028.028.024.927.9

Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6500)

12vs JAX531418259207402373732.433.4
13@ IND6017221822045017.617.613.814.8
14@ OAK62212739131419032.532.528.531.5
15PROJ-Dodds19292381.60.84180.220.520.520.5 (H=49)20.5 (H=57)
15PROJ-Tremblay18282281.40.85200.3202020.0 (H=47)20.0 (H=55)
15PROJ-Bloom172421720.64170.422.422.422.4 (H=57)22.4 (H=67)

Texans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.1)27 (+3.8)26 (+3.2)27 (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+12.7)31 (+12.9)31 (+12.9)31 (+13.8)
11Mark Ingram33134804337220.523.522.023.5
11Gus Edwards2981121000017.
12Jonathan Williams452610413317018.121.119.624.1
12Nyheim Hines229510321006.
13James White681479011898229.737.733.737.7
13Sony Michel151045000004.
14Phillip Lindsay3116511224011.513.512.513.5
14Royce Freeman27824022819.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $9400, DraftKings: $8500)

12vs JAX4019159211.016029.530.528.032.5
13@ IND4526149133.017022.625.622.127.6
14@ OAK3718103211.06022.923.923.426.9
15PROJ-Dodds19920.82.0140.1161817.0 (H=28)18.0 (H=35)
15PROJ-Tremblay19890.81.5130.115.617.116.4 (H=27)17.1 (H=32)
15PROJ-Bloom231021. (H=35)19.6 (H=40)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

12vs JAX8521021.02404.
13@ IND1100011.0900.
14@ OAK24926011.0503.
15PROJ-Dodds4160.11.81103.35.14.2 (H=5)5.1 (H=9)
15PROJ-Tremblay4170.11.2903.24.43.8 (H=4)4.4 (H=7)
15PROJ-Bloom270.12.01202.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=7)

Texans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.7)19 (+0.6)19 (+0.8)18 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-9.3)1 (-12.8)1 (-11.2)1 (-13.2)
11Seth Roberts46111510007.
11Marquise Brown38422300002.
12T.Y. Hilton25631800001.
12Chester Rogers41111200001.
13Julian Edelman8012610611-7015.921.918.924.9
13Jakobi Meyers61734600004.
14Tim Patrick37325000005.
14DaeSean Hamilton44423600003.

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $6000)

12vs JAX3754.0135100019.523.521.526.5
13@ IND5443.04500004.
14@ OAK5275.01532113028.633.631.136.6
15PROJ-Dodds3.5600.40008.411.910.2 (H=18)11.9 (H=24)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.5580.40108.311.810.1 (H=17)11.8 (H=23)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0730.600010.914.912.9 (H=27)14.9 (H=35)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3800)

12vs JAX3932.02900002.
13@ IND4121.02300002.
14@ OAK4742.03400003.
15PROJ-Dodds2.7370.20004.97.66.3 (H=9)7.6 (H=17)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=7)6.5 (H=13)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0440.50007.410.48.9 (H=17)10.4 (H=30)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3700)

12vs JAX1233.0200000253.55.0
13@ IND2321.01310007.
14@ OAK000.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.4260.10003.25.64.5 (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.6190.10002.54.13.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=6)
15PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

12vs JAX900.000000000.00.0
13@ IND000.000000000.00.0
14@ OAK3044.02500002.
15PROJ-Dodds1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=3)3.7 (H=6)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.2170.10002.33.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0360.30005.48.46.9 (H=12)8.4 (H=24)

Kalif Raymond (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

12vs JAX1011.01401-500.
13@ IND1711.0401000101110.511.0
14@ OAK1221.01100001.
15PROJ-Dodds0.9130.10001.92.82.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.9130.101022.92.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)

Texans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.6)21 (+0.7)23 (+0.8)22 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.3)31 (+7.5)31 (+7.0)31 (+8.1)
11Mark Andrews254475113.517.515.517.5
12Eric Ebron29544404.
13Matt LaCosse53212402.
14Noah Fant2944113117.321.319.324.3

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

12vs JAX5000.0000.
13@ IND5222.000021.02.0
14@ OAK4943.02918.911.910.411.9
15PROJ-Dodds2.9330. (H=9)7.4 (H=18)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.8320. (H=8)7.2 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0320. (H=12)8.6 (H=23)

Anthony Firkser (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $2700)

12vs JAX1600.000000.00.0
13@ IND1943.02202.
14@ OAK1211.03903.
15PROJ-Dodds1.6200. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.7210. (H=3)4.4 (H=9)
15PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=4)

Texans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.1)18T (+0.1)21 (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.4)18T (+0.4)17 (-0.1) (+0.0)
11Justin Tucker2355111112.012.0
12Adam Vinatieri1122555.05.0
13Kai Forbath1112444.04.0
14Brandon McManus1155888.08.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs JAX0066666.06.0
13@ IND1144777.07.0
14@ OAK0166666.06.0

Texans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.2)16 (-0.2)24T (-0.4)24T (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.0)26 (+3.0)24T (+2.4)24T (+2.4)
11Baltimore Ravens723271100111115.015.0
12Indianapolis Colts2039611000334.04.0
13New England Patriots2827630000332.02.0
14Denver Broncos2441432101212117.017.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2800)

12vs JAX20.0036930100556.06.0
13@ IND17.00391321009920.020.0
14@ OAK21.0035620101161610.010.0
15PROJ-Dodds22.003612.70.90.600. (H=21)8.8 (H=30)
15PROJ-Tremblay22.503632.310.600. (H=20)8.6 (H=29)