Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 18, Saints 28

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense22.8 (+0.1) (17)133 (+21) (6)208 (-28) (25)
Saints Defense22.8 (+0.1) (17)94 (-17) (5)244 (+8) (20)

New Orleans Saints Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Saints Offense26.5 (+3.8) (5)108 (-3) (16)261 (+25) (8)
Colts Defense22.7 (+0.0) (16)100 (-12) (8)245 (+9) (22)

Colts Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Saints defense.

The Colts rushing offense welcomed back Marlon Mack last week as he made his return from a hand injury that sidelined him in the preceding two games. Mack played 41 percent of the snaps and led the backfield with 13 carries for 38 yards and a touchdown, showing no ill effects from his hand injury. Last week’s lack of yardage has to be chalked up to the terrible matchup, as Mack has been productive throughout the season and was coming off a big game with 7.8 yards per rush attempt in Week 11. Mack has been seeing spectacular volume this season also, rushing 18 or more times in 7-of-11 games as the clear top option for this Colts offense that likes to lean on their ground game. It also helps to be running behind one of the league’s top offensive lines that continues to play at an elite level week in and week out.

The Colts will be in for another tough test this week against a strong New Orleans Saints run defense. While the matchup is slightly better than last week, the Saints still are one of the top run defenses in football, giving up just 94.2 rushing yards per game (5th-fewest) and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (non-PPR) to opposing running backs. Even considering the near 100-point shootout they competed in last week, the Saints still only allowed one rushing touchdown and 129 rushing yards to 49ers running backs as this was a rare game in which game flow was not on the side of the Saints. Only two running backs have crossed the 70-yard mark against this team while the highest rushing yard total amassed against them was back in Week 1 by Carlos Hyde with 83 yards. Both edge defenders Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport should be a tall test for the strong tackles on this Colts offensive line. Saints defensive backs have played very well against the run also, making it tough for teams to find an edge on the outside or bust big plays in the second level. All in all, even with one of the top offensive lines in football and strong volume likely to come, the Marlon Mack should be in for a challenge on the road against the Saints in this one.

Colts Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Saints defense.

Jacoby Brissett delivered in a sweet spot matchup last week against the Buccaneers, bouncing back relatively well from an unfortunate string of poor performances throughout the second half of the season. Brissett managed to throw for just two touchdowns in the five games leading up to last week when he passed for two touchdowns and 251 yards. However, Brissett did miss on quite a few throws as he completed just 52.8 percent of his passes in last week’s game. He showed a nice deep ball connection with receiver Marcus Johnson, who has now seen six and seven targets for 55 and 105 yards in his past two games. The slew of injuries to Colts wide receivers has afforded guys like Johnson an opportunity to step up, but it also has contributed to the lack of consistency displayed from this passing offense as a whole. T.Y. Hilton is rehabbing towards a potential return this season, but it is unlikely to be this week. This should set up Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle as the top options for Brissett yet again. The Colts also reunited with Dontrell Inman this week, but it would be hard to expect much from him with just a few days back on the team.

The Saints defense has been mediocre against the pass on paper this season, but that is primarily due to how well this team as a whole has played to force opposing offenses into pass-heavy game scripts. This New Orleans team has some solid contributors on defense, starting with a fearsome defensive line that ranks tied for fourth in the league with 43 sacks. Edge rusher Cameron Jordan leads the way here, ranking third in the league with 13.5 sacks. The combination of Jordan and Marcus Davenport will be one of the toughest challenges faced by these top-tier Colts offensive tackles, but even with as strong as the Saints defensive line is, they still project to be a relatively even matchup for the equally-elite Colts offensive line. In the secondary, the Saints have one of the best safeties in football with Marcus Williams over the top. Williams has been an excellent asset to help what has, at times, been a middling cornerback group. Marcus Lattimore has elite talent, but he has taken a step back this year after his breakout 2017 campaign. Still, Lattimore will offer a difficult matchup for Zach Pascal in shadow coverage this week. Tight ends have actually got the best of this defense in recent weeks, as an opposing tight end has exceeded 40 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in six straight games--a great stat for the likes of Jack Doyle coming into a game that should afford him plenty of volume.

Saints Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Saints ground game struggled to get going in what was a pass-happy shootout last week against the 49ers. This struggle to get going on the ground is nothing new for the Saints backfield though, as Alvin Kamara has not scored since Week 3 and has seen 13 or fewer carries in five straight games since suffering the ankle injury in Week 6. That lower volume on the ground has led to Kamara failing to exceed 25 rushing yards in two of his last five games while not going over the 75 rushing yard mark in any of those outings. Part of the explanation for this lower volume from Kamara has been the increased usage of Latavius Murray, who looked spectacular in his two games filling in as the lead back while Kamara was injured. Murray’s usage has been somewhat erratic since Kamara’s return though, as he rushed for 64 and 69 yards in two games, but finished with 12, 27, and 2 rushing yards in the other three since their Week 9 bye. This rushing offense does sport one of the top offensive lines in football, and both Kamara and Murray have the talent to put up big numbers on the ground.

The Colts run defense got back on track last week as they shut down Tampa Bay’s ground game by giving up just 70 rushing yards and no touchdowns to Buccaneers running backs. Last week marked the seventh time this defense has limited a team’s lead running back to fewer than 60 rushing yards and the ninth time they have held all running backs out of the end zone, further solidifying how the 149-yard outburst from Derrick Henry in Week 13 was more of an outlier rather than a sign of this run defense weakening. Darius Leonard continues to anchor this defense with his spectacular play at middle linebacker while Justin Houston is locking down his side of the defensive line despite his reputation as more of a pass-rushing specialist. With as well as this front seven has played, however, they still yield the advantage to the top-notch Saints offensive line--particularly as Pro Bowl candidate right tackle Ryan Ramczyk should by all accounts be able to hold his own against Houston. This Saints offensive line is helping to generate the third-most yards before contact (1.99) in the league and should have minimal issues winning in the trenches here.

Saints Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Drew Brees accounted for six touchdowns (5 passing, 1 rushing) and 349 passing yards in last week’s loss to the 49ers. While last week was certainly his best performance of the season, it was not at all out of the ordinary for Breesas he has had huge weeks throughout his 19-year career and has actually passed for three touchdowns in four of his last seven games since returning from injury in Week 8. A big part of his success this season has to be attributed to having the best wide receiver in football, Michael Thomas. Now garnering MVP buzz, Thomas handily leads the league in both receptions (121) and receiving yards (1,424) while also averaging a league-leading 11.4 targets per game. Thomas has now exceeded 100 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games with double-digit receptions in five of those outings. Beyond Thomas, tight end Jared Cook has been a reliable contributor through the air with over 60 yards in three straight games and three touchdowns over that span. Cook exited last week’s game early with a concussion though, so his status may be in question for this Monday night game.

The Colts defense has certainly shown some signs of weakness lately as they have allowed season-highs in total points (31 and 36) in back-to-back weeks. Their secondary is relatively absent of individual playmakers, yet they had been playing very well as an overall unit for most of the season--holding opposing quarterbacks to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game through the first 10 weeks of the season. Their last four games have been a different story, however, as the Colts have given up multiple passing touchdowns in all four games, an average of 313 passing yards per game, and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. After coughing up over 450 yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay last week, this defense is firmly trending in the wrong direction. Cornerback Pierre Desir stands no chance against Michael Thomas, while even the likes of Ted Ginn and tight end Jared Cook (if he plays) should all have favorable matchups. The Colts have had some success in rushing opposing passers with top edge rusher Justin Houston, but they should be outmatched this week against the top-tier Saints offensive line that has given up the fourth-fewest sacks (21) in football. All in all, the Saints passing offense should have ample opportunities to continue putting up big numbers through the air this week.

Saints vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.0)24 (+2.0)23T (+2.1)24 (+2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+5.1)25 (+5.1)23 (+4.3)28 (+5.8)
11Jameis Winston68305131324223022.022.018.821.8
12Kyle Allen7623362563019025.725.723.123.1
13Matt Ryan93355031222321023.723.718.622.6
14Jimmy Garoppolo6726353494121032.632.629.132.1

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5900)

12@ HOU67162512900420114.514.513.213.2
13vs TEN722540319121-1017.917.914.717.7
14@ TB63193625120426023.223.222.622.6
15PROJ-Dodds22352381.30.84130. (H=41)18.2 (H=51)
15PROJ-Tremblay23372521.314130.118.718.718.7 (H=43)18.7 (H=54)
15PROJ-Bloom18311981.813130.218.618.618.6 (H=42)18.6 (H=53)

Saints vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.8)8 (-2.9)4 (-3.6)5 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.4)26 (+3.9)26 (+2.8)25 (+3.4)
11Peyton Barber12000221117.
11Ronald Jones21413042101.
12Christian McCaffrey76226419969125.334.329.834.3
12Jordan Scarlett000000000.
13Devonta Freeman6217510541306.410.48.410.4
13Brian Hill244130332403.
14Raheem Mostert40106912240122.924.923.924.9
14Matt Breida12654011405.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5700)

12@ HOU000000.000000.00.0
13vs TEN000000.000000.00.0
14@ TB261338100.0009.
15PROJ-Dodds15660.31.0709.110.19.6 (H=13)10.1 (H=19)
15PROJ-Tremblay16700.30.4309.19.59.3 (H=13)9.5 (H=17)
15PROJ-Bloom14530.50.0008.38.38.3 (H=10)8.3 (H=13)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4200)

12@ HOU22951032.01006.
13vs TEN31422122.0180101211.012.0
14@ TB3541054.02402.
15PROJ-Dodds4150.14.1290. (H=12)9.8 (H=24)
15PROJ-Tremblay4140.14.8340.1610.88.5 (H=14)10.9 (H=29)
15PROJ-Bloom3100.14.0290. (H=12)9.8 (H=24)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ HOU100000.000000.00.0
13vs TEN321147032.0905.
14@ TB911000.0000.
15PROJ-Dodds31400.0001.41.41.4 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay2900.0000.90.90.9 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
15PROJ-Bloom290.10.0001.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Saints vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.7)31 (+5.3)30 (+5.4)29 (+6.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+12.9)30 (+15.6)30 (+14.1)29 (+15.9)
11Chris Godwin686347100010.713.712.213.7
11Scott Miller35647100007.
12D.J. Moore6396126218025.431.428.434.4
12Curtis Samuel64419044004.
13Russell Gage639552100011.216.213.716.2
13Calvin Ridley871089100009.
14Emmanuel Sanders6397157100027.534.530.637.1
14Kendrick Bourne384318200013.816.815.316.8

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $6200)

12@ HOU5910.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN72107.0109000010.917.914.420.9
14@ TB6395.074100013.418.417.920.4
15PROJ-Dodds4.2580.30007.611.89.7 (H=15)11.8 (H=23)
15PROJ-Tremblay4.4620.3000812.410.2 (H=17)12.4 (H=25)
15PROJ-Bloom5.0630.40008.713.711.2 (H=20)13.7 (H=30)

Marcus Johnson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4300)

12@ HOU4210.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN6764.05500005.
14@ TB5673.0105100016.519.518.022.5
15PROJ-Dodds3.2460.20005.897.4 (H=11)9.0 (H=20)
15PROJ-Tremblay3.7520.20006.410.18.3 (H=13)10.1 (H=25)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0440.30006.29.27.7 (H=12)9.2 (H=21)

Dontrelle Inman (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Chad Williams (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

14@ TB610.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.810000011.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Ashton Dulin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ HOU000.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN4111.01300001.
14@ TB1400.000000000.00.0
15PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
15PROJ-Tremblay0.810000011.81.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Saints vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.6)14T (-0.6)13 (-0.6)15 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.9)25 (+2.7)23 (+1.9)24 (+2.5)
11Cameron Brate5114107307.317.312.317.3
12Greg Olsen70754404.
13Jaeden Graham554441110.
14George Kittle628667112.718.715.718.7

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

12@ HOU4643.02802.
13vs TEN68116.073113.319.316.319.3
14@ TB4962.02702.
15PROJ-Dodds5.2510.47.512.710.1 (H=18)12.7 (H=36)
15PROJ-Tremblay5.6560.4813.610.8 (H=20)13.6 (H=40)
15PROJ-Bloom4.0450.46.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=27)

Ross Travis (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

13vs TEN1232.03103.
14@ TB511.0100.
15PROJ-Dodds1.2100. (H=4)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.3100. (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom1. (H=3)

Saints vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+0.2)24T (+0.2)22T (+0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.9)24 (+0.9)28 (+2.1) (+0.0)
11Matt Gay1122557.07.0
12Joey Slye23137710.010.0
13Matt Bosher0000000.00.0
14Robbie Gould2266121213.013.0

Chase McLaughlin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Saints vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-3.3)1 (-3.3)3 (-3.6)3 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.7)1 (-4.7)1 (-6.9)1 (-6.9)
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers3432810000110.00.0
12Carolina Panthers3441821000443.03.0
13Atlanta Falcons2627900000000.00.0
14San Francisco 49ers464650010022-2.0-2.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2100)

12@ HOU20.0039611000334.04.0
13vs TEN31.002926020010109.09.0
14@ TB38.0054213101151511.011.0
15PROJ-Dodds27.003772.10.80.600. (H=14)6.3 (H=23)
15PROJ-Tremblay26.753622.410.600.3777.0 (H=17)7.0 (H=27)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.3)19 (+0.3)17 (+0.2)20 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.5)28 (+5.5)26 (+4.6)25 (+4.7)
11Nick Foles6333472962100021.821.818.818.8
12Deshaun Watson59193029821310022.922.919.919.9
13Ryan Tannehill6017221822045017.617.613.814.8
14Jameis Winston7233454564365142.342.337.740.7

Drew Brees (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $6900)

12vs CAR6530393113100026.626.623.426.4
13@ ATL481830184101-1013.113.111.311.3
14vs SF6829403495011143.643.640.143.1
15PROJ-Dodds26362741.90.8340. (H=51)22.1 (H=61)
15PROJ-Tremblay24362641.81460.321.821.821.8 (H=50)21.8 (H=60)
15PROJ-Bloom22292512.40.8110. (H=51)22.1 (H=61)

Taysom Hill (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

12vs CAR700000000010.51.0
13@ ATL1301000233116.518.517.518.5
14vs SF280100051302.
15PROJ-Dodds1290.102100. (H=6)5.4 (H=9)
15PROJ-Tremblay00000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
15PROJ-Bloom000003170.1454.5 (H=5)5.0 (H=8)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.5)9 (-2.8)5 (-3.5)7 (-3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.0)10 (-3.3)8 (-4.5)10 (-3.6)
11Leonard Fournette458230773405.712.79.212.7
11Ryquell Armstead14160221301.
12Carlos Hyde291667000006.
12Duke Johnson30522011803.
13Derrick Henry452614913317022.625.622.127.6
13Dion Lewis1100011900.
14Ronald Jones2711360542305.
14Peyton Barber3011340221905.

Alvin Kamara (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6800)

12vs CAR441154099.048010.219.214.719.2
13@ ATL411161084.02308.412.410.412.4
14vs SF551325064.01804.
15PROJ-Dodds13570.37.1500.213.720.817.3 (H=38)20.8 (H=56)
15PROJ-Tremblay13550.36.8520.213.720.517.1 (H=37)20.5 (H=55)
15PROJ-Bloom12450.34.0210.310.214.212.2 (H=20)14.2 (H=29)

Latavius Murray (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4700)

12vs CAR26764100.00012.412.412.412.4
13@ ATL1342000.0000.
14vs SF24769032.02509.411.410.411.4
15PROJ-Dodds8350.31.81106.48.27.3 (H=11)8.2 (H=16)
15PROJ-Tremblay7330.31.29067.26.6 (H=9)7.2 (H=12)
15PROJ-Bloom12600.61.05010.111.110.6 (H=21)11.1 (H=27)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.7)21 (+2.9)23T (+2.9)23 (+3.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+14.1)32 (+17.6)32 (+15.7)31 (+18.0)
11D.J. Chark59158104200022.430.426.433.4
11Chris Conley60865800005.811.88.811.8
12DeAndre Hopkins598694200021.427.424.427.4
12Will Fuller53117140000014.021.017.524.0
13Kalif Raymond171140100010.011.010.511.0
13Adam Humphries23211310007.
14Breshad Perriman655370100013.016.014.516.0
14Mike Evans182161100012.113.112.613.1

Michael Thomas (FanDuel: $9100, DraftKings: $8700)

12vs CAR581110.0101100016.
13@ ATL4086.04800004.810.87.810.8
14vs SF701511.0134100019.430.424.933.4
15PROJ-Dodds8.61000.700014.222.818.5 (H=34)22.8 (H=51)
15PROJ-Tremblay7.9990.700014.12218.0 (H=32)22.0 (H=48)
15PROJ-Bloom7.0880.7000132016.5 (H=28)20.0 (H=41)

Ted Ginn (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3800)

12vs CAR3952.03800003.
13@ ATL2710.000000000.00.0
14vs SF4264.0500000597.09.0
15PROJ-Dodds2.3320.20004.46.75.6 (H=7)6.7 (H=14)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.3330.20004.56.85.7 (H=7)6.8 (H=14)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0410.30005.97.96.9 (H=10)7.9 (H=18)

TreQuan Smith (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

12vs CAR4731.01310007.
13@ ATL3722.01400001.
14vs SF5642.02910008.910.99.910.9
15PROJ-Dodds1.7230.20003.55.24.4 (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.5210.20003.34.84.1 (H=5)4.8 (H=9)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0250.30004.36.35.3 (H=7)6.3 (H=14)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.0)22 (+0.7)21 (+0.2)21 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.6)14 (-1.6)14 (-1.5)14 (-1.7)
11Ben Koyack1611900.
12Jordan Akins28432602.
13Anthony Firkser19432202.
14Cameron Brate24443019.

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4600)

12vs CAR3886.099115.921.918.921.9
13@ ATL2963.08508.511.510.011.5
14vs SF822.064218.420.419.420.4
15PROJ-Dodds2.3240. (H=4)5.9 (H=9)
15PROJ-Tremblay1.4180.234.43.7 (H=2)4.4 (H=5)
15PROJ-Bloom3.0480.57.810.89.3 (H=14)10.8 (H=26)

Josh Hill (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3500)

12vs CAR3111.01201.
13@ ATL2921.0200.
14vs SF6232.0416.
15PROJ-Dodds2.2210. (H=4)5.5 (H=10)
15PROJ-Tremblay2.1210. (H=4)5.4 (H=10)
15PROJ-Bloom2.0120. (H=3)4.4 (H=7)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.3)19T (+0.3)19T (+0.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.6)11T (-0.6)10 (-1.1) (+0.0)
11Josh Lambo0111111.01.0
12Kaimi Fairbairn2222888.08.0
13Ryan Succop1144777.07.0
14Matt Gay1155889.09.0

Wil Lutz (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12vs CAR2244101011.011.0
13@ ATL4422141417.017.0
14vs SF2244101013.013.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-0.7)12 (-0.7)19T (-0.2)19T (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-1.5)12T (-1.5)19 (+0.4)19 (+0.4)
11Jacksonville Jaguars3338931100776.06.0
12Houston Texans1729610000112.02.0
13Tennessee Titans17391321009920.020.0
14Tampa Bay Buccaneers3530910100332.02.0

New Orleans Saints (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2900)

12vs CAR31.0035140100665.05.0
13@ ATL18.0034892100151516.016.0
14vs SF48.0051631000551.01.0
15PROJ-Dodds18.903422. (H=29)10.3 (H=39)
15PROJ-Tremblay18.753622.410.800.510.510.510.5 (H=30)10.5 (H=40)