Matchup Analysis: Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Redskins 15, Packers 27

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Washington Redskins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Redskins Offense14.4 (-8.0) (32)99 (-11) (20)163 (-72) (32)
Packers Defense21.2 (-1.2) (14)123 (+11) (25)254 (+18) (22)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense24.1 (+1.7) (11)101 (-9) (19)239 (+3) (14)
Redskins Defense24.2 (+1.8) (21)132 (+20) (27)230 (-5) (15)

Redskins Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Redskins under Bill Callahan appear to be a reinvigorated team that is relying heavily on the running game to help rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins develop in the NFL. The Redskins celebrated the return of Derius Guice this past week as Guice was dominant, rushing for 129 yards on just ten carries while Adrian Peterson added 99 yards on 13 carries. All told, this is an offensive line and running game that has been much better in the second half of the season since they seem to have accepted that Trent Williams was not returning as the same five offensive linemen have played together every game this year. That will be tested this week as right tackle Morgan Moses left last week early with a back injury, but Moses has come out and said that he will play this week. Expect the Redskins to continue to rely on the run splitting the carries between Peterson and Guice to control the game for much of the rest of the season. When Peterson is finding room to run, he has been dominant over the last seven games as he has rushed for 75 yards or more in five of those contests averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry in those games that he has rushed for over 75 yards.

The Packers run defense on the year has been a unit that continues to struggle as they have now allowed eight running backs on the year to rush for 80 yards or more and have allowed six rushing touchdowns over the last five games. On the year, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs as they are allowing 112 yards per game (6th-most) and 1.1 touchdowns (2nd). The issue for the Packers has been that they play primarily a Dime defense designed to stop the pass which has put immense pressure on Blake Martinez who has struggled mightily this year even with Kenny Clark and Za’Darius Smith playing strong at defensive tackle. When the Packers are in Dime, they also bring Ibraheim Campbell down to linebacker from safety which has been an issue against the run. If there is good news here it is that this week while facing a run-heavy offense, they may play more base 3-4 due to the lack of success of the Redskins passing game which should help the run defense.

Redskins Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Redskins passing offense continues to be a work in progress as rookie Dwayne Haskins is still learning as he had limited experience in college with just one season as the starter at Ohio State. Haskins has completed just 54% of his passes and has thrown six interceptions compared to just two touchdowns in his six games as a starting quarterback, and has been sacked 22 times in just six games. The reality is that Haskins has been put in a tough spot, as the team has limited options at wide receiver with fellow rookie Terry McLaurin the only receiver to have more than 300 yards or 30 catches this season as Paul Richardson, Kelvin Harmon, and Trey Quinn have all been non-existent this season. If there is good news on the horizon, it is that Chris Thompson was able to return last week which should provide a check-down option that neither Adrian Peterson nor Derrius Guice possess as both are limited as receivers.

The Packers are a team that is designed to stop the pass and so far this season, yet have not been a shut-down defense. While on the surface they have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, they have allowed 271 yards passing per game which is the 9th most in the NFL this season as they are propped up by allowing just 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. This is a unit that is still very young at the corner position as they are led by Jaire Alexander who continues to develop into one of the better cornerbacks in football. Opposite of Alexander, Kevin King has had his ups and downs this year and has struggled with consistency. However, the real problem for the Packers has been stopping tight ends. Over their last six games, the Packers have allowed an average of 103 yards per game to the position which is 40 yards more than the next closest team. Blake Martinez and Ibraheim Campbell have both struggled mightily in stopping the position and while the competition that they have faced has been some of the better tight ends in football, they were also exposed by Kaden Smith for 70 yards last week.

Packers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

On the season, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have both been productive rushing for a total of 1,022 yards combined. The rushing touches between the two backs have returned to a near 50/50 split after favoring Jones significantly for several weeks after Williams suffered a concussion earlier this season. Williams has been the more consistent reliable back this year, while Jones has been the boom or bust player as he has been more bust the past two weeks averaging just 2.3 yards-per-carry in those contests. The good news for the Packers moving forward is that right tackle Bryan Bulaga was able to return after suffering a knee injury in Week 12 which is a major relief that if the offensive line can stay healthy over the next few games will be a significant upgrade for this team that is looking to come together before the playoffs.

The Redskins on the surface are a team that has allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game however have held opposing running backs to just 4.15 yards-per-carry which is the 15th best in the NFL this year. This is a unit that has stood up well to the opposition and the only issue is that they have faced so many carries due to being behind for most of the games this year. The strength of this Redskins team is the defensive line as Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne are a tremendous run-stuffing lineman. The issue is when teams get to the second-level they often find success as the linebacking group of rookie Cole Holcomb and Jon Bostic have struggled with consistency. The Redskins have only allowed one 100-yard running back this season which was back in Week 2, so expect that the Packers run the ball at a high-volume and the overall yardage number looks better than the overall success that they had in the game.

Packers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Redskins defense.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing offense statistically have been a unit that has fallen off a cliff over the last four weeks. Over the last four weeks, Rodgers is averaging just 185 yards passing. While last week we can give the offense a pass as they controlled the entire game against the Giants, the other three games seem to have been a little rocky. The Packers are trying to figure out their personnel heading into the playoffs as we have seen Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow, and Jimmy Graham’s playing time diminish over the last two weeks while Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger’s playing time increase over the last two weeks. Outside of Davante Adams, the Packers have not had a consistent playmaker all season as they do not have a player who has more than 40 receptions and just one player over 400 yards which is Valdez-Scantling who did so on just 23 receptions. Lazard is the guy that they are hoping develops into the player that could be a consistent option moving forward for this team that is good enough to beat up the bad defenses such as Washington this week but has struggled when facing stiffer competition as they were dominated by San Francisco and the Chargers.

The Redskins passing defense is the opposite of their run defense as while their stats say that they are a fairly solid passing defense as they have allowed the 18th most passing yards per game, the reality is that this defense is a below-average defense as they are allowing the 9th-most yards-per-attempt at 7.6 on the year. The leader of the Redskins defense is Quinton Dunbar who might be the best cornerback in football in 2019, but outside of Dunbar the Redskins are fairly thin as Fabien Moreau has been forced to move to the outside after playing the last two seasons in the slot, and Jimmy Moreland has been forced into playing time with Josh Norman being benched. It remains to be seen if the benching of Norman has any positive impact as in the two games that they have played they have played Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen, so they will be in for a real test this week against Aaron Rodgers.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.2)9 (-2.2)9 (-2.7)8 (-3.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.7)9 (-2.8)8 (-3.3)7 (-3.0)
10Kyle Allen73284330711312019.619.614.518.5
12Jimmy Garoppolo4814202532021020.820.818.218.2
13Daniel Jones6720372401356013.613.611.211.2

Dwayne Haskins (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4600)

11vs NYJ6819352142145018.
12vs DET5913291560132809.
13@ CAR64132514700460886.56.5
14PROJ-Dodds18301980.91.13110. (H=30)14.1 (H=42)
14PROJ-Tremblay18302020.912100.114.314.314.3 (H=30)14.3 (H=43)
14PROJ-Bloom1727191114120.114.414.414.4 (H=31)14.4 (H=44)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.8)29 (+3.9)29 (+3.9)28 (+4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.7)19 (+0.3)21T (+1.1)22 (+0.7)
10Christian McCaffrey732010817633020.
10Alex Armah1100000000.
12Raheem Mostert1464513122012.713.713.213.7
12Tevin Coleman29113914210010.912.911.912.9
13Saquon Barkley64198307332011.514.513.014.5
13Javorius Allen314000000.

Derrius Guice (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4900)

11vs NYJ20724021.045112.913.913.413.9
12vs DET261032021.0603.
13@ CAR1910129232.08025.727.726.730.7
14PROJ-Dodds10480.22.1170.18.310.49.4 (H=15)10.4 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay9380.21.91506.58.47.5 (H=10)8.4 (H=16)
14PROJ-Bloom12610.52.0150. (H=24)13.2 (H=35)

Adrian Peterson (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4000)

11vs NYJ17925022.050354.05.0
12vs DET201027011.02204.
13@ CAR231399110.00015.915.915.915.9
14PROJ-Dodds10410.20.97066.96.5 (H=8)6.9 (H=14)
14PROJ-Tremblay10440.21.1806.47.57.0 (H=10)7.5 (H=16)
14PROJ-Bloom10450.30.0006.36.36.3 (H=8)6.3 (H=12)

Chris Thompson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3300)

11vs NYJ000000.000000.00.0
12vs DET000000.000000.00.0
13@ CAR23314021.01502.
14PROJ-Dodds2701.81402.13.93.0 (H=2)3.9 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay1401.61401.83.42.6 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom31302.0160. (H=5)5.5 (H=11)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.9)8 (-4.2)9 (-3.1)9 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-2.1)11 (-3.7)11 (-2.9)11 (-3.9)
10D.J. Moore73119120000012.021.016.524.0
10Curtis Samuel61843510009.513.511.513.5
12Deebo Samuel352250100011.
12Kendrick Bourne24222700002.
13Sterling Shepard577340100010.013.011.513.0
13Darius Slayton63964400004.410.47.410.4

Terry McLaurin (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5100)

11vs NYJ6243.06900006.
12vs DET59125.07200007.212.29.712.2
13@ CAR5542.0800000.
14PROJ-Dodds3.9580.30007.611.59.6 (H=17)11.5 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.8560.30007.411.29.3 (H=16)11.2 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0590.40008.312.310.3 (H=20)12.3 (H=30)

Kelvin Harmon (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

11vs NYJ6365.05300005.310.37.810.3
12vs DET3863.04300004.
13@ CAR5453.05100005.
14PROJ-Dodds3.4420.20005.48.87.1 (H=12)8.8 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.4440.20005.697.3 (H=13)9.0 (H=24)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0520.20006.410.48.4 (H=16)10.4 (H=31)

Steven Sims (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

11vs NYJ942.0600000.
12vs DET2420.000000006.06.0
13@ CAR3743.02900002.
14PROJ-Dodds2.2190.10002.54.73.6 (H=3)4.7 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.0220.10002.84.83.8 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0280.10003.46.44.9 (H=6)6.4 (H=14)

Trey Quinn (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3200)

11vs NYJ4142.0900000.
12vs DET2210.000000000.00.0
13@ CAR710.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.2120.10001.832.5 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.1120.10001.82.92.4 (H=1)3.0 (H=4)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+2.6)30 (+3.7)29 (+3.0)30 (+3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.4)29 (+6.3)29 (+5.4)29 (+7.2)
10Greg Olsen731089809.817.813.817.8
12George Kittle3866129118.924.921.927.9
13Kaden Smith61867007.

Jeremy Sprinkle (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2800)

11vs NYJ5032.01617.
12vs DET5121.0400.
13@ CAR4942.03603.
14PROJ-Dodds2.0210. (H=3)4.7 (H=10)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=3)4.6 (H=10)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=3)4.7 (H=10)

Hale Hentges (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs NYJ2031.000010.51.0
12vs DET1500.000000.00.0
13@ CAR3010.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-0.5)10T (-0.5)12 (-0.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.8)3 (-2.8)7 (-2.5) (+0.0)
10Joey Slye1111446.06.0
12Robbie Gould0000000.00.0
13Aldrick Rosas2211778.08.0

Dustin Hopkins (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs NYJ1200334.04.0
12vs DET4411131314.014.0
13@ CAR3422111112.012.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-3.2)1T (-3.2)4 (-3.5)4 (-3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.3)4 (-4.3)4 (-3.9)4 (-3.9)
10Carolina Panthers2438820000222.02.0
12San Francisco 49ers8198501007711.011.0
13New York Giants313220000000-1.0-1.0

Washington Redskins (FanDuel: $3000, DraftKings: $1700)

11vs NYJ34.0040021100665.05.0
12vs DET16.0036463101202021.021.0
13@ CAR21.0027871100111111.011.0
14PROJ-Dodds27.003642.50.60.500. (H=15)6.1 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay27.503662.40.80.500. (H=15)6.2 (H=27)

Redskins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.0)21 (+0.9)22 (+1.2)20 (+0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.7)28 (+4.6)28 (+4.2)28 (+3.5)
11Sam Darnold711930293412-3029.429.426.426.4
12Jeff Driskel75203320713963017.717.715.615.6
13Kyle Allen74274627821422129.129.124.325.3

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $6800)

12@ SF68203310410313010.510.59.510.5
13@ NYG64213324340324030.630.628.128.1
14PROJ-Dodds23332601.90.53150. (H=51)22.2 (H=63)
14PROJ-Tremblay23362621.80.83130.121.421.421.4 (H=47)21.4 (H=59)
14PROJ-Bloom21272382.20.53160.122.422.422.4 (H=51)22.4 (H=64)

Redskins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.5)22 (+2.0)21 (+1.6)21 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.5)12 (-3.3)12 (-3.4)12 (-4.2)
11LeVeon Bell39185912233015.
11Bilal Powell16742021504.
12Bo Scarbrough381898010009.
12Ty Johnson274110221002.
13Christian McCaffrey741444013758010.217.213.717.2
13Alex Armah512000000.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6700)

12@ SF411338010.0003.
13@ NYG391118064.01303.
14PROJ-Dodds13580.72.5220.112.815.314.0 (H=24)15.3 (H=33)
14PROJ-Tremblay12490.62.4200.111.113.512.3 (H=19)13.5 (H=27)
14PROJ-Bloom17710.82.0120.113.715.714.7 (H=26)15.7 (H=35)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4800)

12@ SF391145087.035081511.515.0
13@ NYG281041044.02606.710.78.710.7
14PROJ-Dodds11450.23.7250.31013.711.9 (H=26)13.7 (H=38)
14PROJ-Tremblay9400.24.3320.410.815.113.0 (H=30)15.1 (H=45)
14PROJ-Bloom12470.24.0250.310.214.212.2 (H=27)14.2 (H=41)

Dan Vitale (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ SF900011.0300.
13@ NYG1200010.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0000.6400.410.7 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0000.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Redskins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.0)17 (+0.8)18 (+0.7)16 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.2)18 (+1.6)18 (+0.8)17 (+0.1)
11Jamison Crowder418576100013.618.616.118.6
11Robby Anderson5931610006.
12Kenny Golladay68446100006.
12Marvin Jones671154600004.
13D.J. Moore711267511-3013.
13Curtis Samuel697465100012.516.514.516.5

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $8000)

12@ SF60127.043100010.317.315.819.3
13@ NYG52106.064200018.424.421.424.4
14PROJ-Dodds6.7890.600012.519.215.9 (H=28)19.2 (H=41)
14PROJ-Tremblay6.3830.500011.317.614.4 (H=24)17.6 (H=35)
14PROJ-Bloom6.085100014.520.517.5 (H=33)20.5 (H=46)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4200)

12@ SF5221.07012102.
13@ NYG3733.0103100016.319.317.822.3
14PROJ-Dodds2.5390.20005.17.66.4 (H=8)7.6 (H=15)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.2320.20204.66.85.7 (H=7)6.8 (H=13)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0530.40007.710.79.2 (H=16)10.7 (H=28)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3400)

12@ SF5443.0900000.
13@ NYG4232.0200000243.04.0
14PROJ-Dodds2.0200.10002.64.63.6 (H=3)4.6 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.7190.10002.54.23.4 (H=3)4.2 (H=7)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=9)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3900)

12@ SF3031.0700000.
13@ NYG1820.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.9160.10002.23.12.7 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.0160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=3)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

12@ SF2210.000000000.00.0
13@ NYG1400.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.7900000.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.790.10001.52.21.9 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)

Redskins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+0.5)24 (+0.8)24 (+0.7)23 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.4)28 (+5.9)30 (+5.7)28 (+6.8)
11Ryan Griffin6055109116.921.919.424.9
12Logan Thomas28222418.410.49.410.4
13Ian Thomas32442402.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3600)

12@ SF3821.0700.
13@ NYG2811.01601.
14PROJ-Dodds2.1250. (H=5)5.8 (H=11)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.1240. (H=5)5.7 (H=11)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ SF2800.000000.00.0
13@ NYG2721.0116.
14PROJ-Dodds1.0120. (H=1)2.8 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.1120. (H=1)2.9 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

12@ SF2722.0800.
13@ NYG2010.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Redskins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (+0.4)11T (+0.4)10T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.8)11 (-0.8)10 (-1.2) (+0.0)
11Sam Ficken0145444.04.0
12Matt Prater3411101011.011.0
13Joey Slye0033333.03.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

12@ SF0000000.00.0
13@ NYG1144778.08.0

Redskins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.4)14T (+0.4)27T (+2.5)27T (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.7)14 (-0.7)17 (-0.2)17 (-0.2)
11New York Jets1722561000889.09.0
12Detroit Lions1923031100778.08.0
13Carolina Panthers2936250000556.06.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

12@ SF37.003393000033-1.0-1.0
13@ NYG13.00335030006610.010.0
14PROJ-Dodds15.002862.61.10.900.8141414.0 (H=38)14.0 (H=48)
14PROJ-Tremblay14.502981.9110.10.813.713.713.7 (H=37)13.7 (H=46)