Matchup Analysis: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: 49ers 21, Saints 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

San Francisco 49ers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
49ers Offense29.1 (+6.7) (2)148 (+36) (2)230 (-4) (16)
Saints Defense20.7 (-1.8) (12)89 (-22) (3)235 (+0) (17)

New Orleans Saints Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Saints Offense24.8 (+2.4) (9)107 (-3) (17)254 (+19) (9)
49ers Defense15.2 (-7.2) (2)117 (+5) (22)134 (-100) (1)

49ers Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Saints defense.

The San Francisco offense is a decidedly run-dominant one, which is no surprise under coach Kyle Shanahan. And try as he might, he can no longer ignore the impact that Raheem Mostert has made on an attack that had stagnated by midseason. Over the past 3 weeks, with Matt Breida injured and Tevin Coleman running on fumes (2.1 yards per carry), Mostert has turned 31 rushes into 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dating back to last season, over 20 games in this offense, Mostert has posted a wild 6.3 yards a carry. This remains a multi-headed backfield, especially with Breida looking probable to return for Sunday. With the opportunity likely to be spread so thin, it’s hard to project much volume for any of the three. But for fantasy players not averse to risk, Mostert does look like the strongest option. His role may actually be the stablest right now, and there’s no denying his dynamism as a big-play magnet.

Due to a variety of factors, the New Orleans run defense remains one of fantasy’s toughest matchups. Game flow tends to favor the 10-2 Saints, keeping volume and production down for their opponents. And it’s a strong unit to boot, anchored by an underrated front line capable of controlling the point of attack. The second level is a bit inconsistent, but has a few run-stuffing stars, including potential All-Pro Demario Davis at linebacker. Altogether, they’ve allowed just 2 runners to top 70 yards in a game, stifling the likes of Christian McCaffrey (64), Ezekiel Elliott (35), and Chris Carson (53) along the way. The 49ers boast a dynamic ground game, but they’ll have to take control of the game early to reap the rewards in this matchup.

49ers Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Saints defense.

As expected, the 49ers’ run-dominant approach severely handcuffs the upside of its passing game. Jimmy Garoppolo has been passable as a Super Bowl-contending quarterback, completing 69% of his throws in full-on game manager mode. He’s only topped 300 yards twice, though, with both coming against the Cardinals’ awful pass defense. Through 12 games, those 2 matchups have accounted for 26% of his yardage and 38% of his touchdowns. There’s some truly explosive talent mixed into this attack, particularly on the inside of the formation. Tight end George Kittle remains a matchup-proof fantasy star, and rookie slot man Deebo Samuel continues to make at least two or three splash plays a week. He put up 112 and 134 yards in Weeks 10 and 11, then caught long touchdowns in each of the last two. Emmanuel Sanders looms, as well, even though Samuel has cut deeply into his role. But without consistent volume in a conservative attack, their expectations need to be held in check. Game flow and gameplan will tell the tale; it’s rare to see two or more erupt in the same week.

The New Orleans pass defense is generally a strong one, boasting a true shutdown cornerback and a handful of rising stars around him. Last week, they recorded 9 sacks and allowed Matt Ryan just 6.2 yards per attempt. The Saints have allowed big raw yardage in a handful of games, but much of it has been boosted by garbage time. And with top cornerback Marshon Lattimore back in the lineup, this is again a daunting matchup for opponents’ No. 1 wideouts. Lattimore has done fantastic recent work against the likes of Amari Cooper (48 yards), D.J. Chark (43), and Mike Evans (69 over 2 games). On the other side, Eli Apple is fresh off one of his worst games as a pro, losing repeatedly to the Falcons’ Calvin Ridley. It’s unclear just how much impact they’ll have Sunday, though, as the 49ers work the slots much more often than the boundaries. The burden will be on safeties Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell to control the seams and keep Jimmy Garoppolo’s slot targets from producing after the catch.

Saints Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

The Saints ground attack has been the league’s gold standard for the better part of two years, but has struggled a bit of late. They sit just 17th in raw yardage and 13th per attempt, with just 7 rushing touchdowns on the season. Alvin Kamara remains a shifty, dynamic runner, and one of football’s most dangerous weapons in open space. But it appears his rushing volume has officially been scaled back. Kamara took on 72% of running back carries before his Week 6 injury, but has dipped to 59% since returning. His efficiency has gone up in the decreased role, though, with 5.5 yards per carry over the past 4 games. But he hasn’t topped 75 yards since Week 1, and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3. This attack has fully shifted back into the two-back mold of the past few years, with Latavius Murray running serviceably in the old Mark Ingram role. He doesn’t produce enough for fantasy consideration, but siphons enough work to ding Kamara’s upside.

For all of their pass-game dominance, the San Francisco defense has struggled for most of 2019 against the run. Through 12 games, they sit 25th league-wide in yardage allowed per rush (4.7) and 22nd per game (117). That said, they’ve shown noticeable improvement over their past three games. There’s no shame in allowing a big day to Lamar Jackson, but they’ve done a fine job of containing Mark Ingram (15 carries for 59 yards), Aaron Jones (13 for 38), and Kenyan Drake (16 for 67) over that span. Perhaps the biggest factor has been top linebacker Fred Warner, whose play has trended upward after a rough start to the season. There are still plenty of liabilities, though. Rookie Dre Greenlaw has been inconsistent next to Warner, and the cornerback-heavy secondary provides little help in the box. Last week, Jackson was able to use his instinct and suddenness to create room against the 49ers’ light front seven. It’s safe to assume Alvin Kamara, who’s similarly tough to track in the open field, has taken notes.

Saints Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the 49ers defense.

Drew Brees continues to play at an upper-tier level here in Year 19, completing a league-best 74% of his throws - nothing new for the ultra-precise Brees. That said, he hasn’t shown much dynamism of late, with the Saints’ downfield attack hardly in play over the past month or so. Brees has produced just 6.8 yards per attempt since the Week 10 bye, falling below 230 in 2 of those 4 games. In other words, he’s performing on a mortal level but still among the league’s most efficient passers. Throwing to Michael Thomas, who’s on pace to best Marvin Harrison’s receptions record, Brees always boasts a stable fantasy floor, if only through volume. Last week’s 30 attempts were his lowest of the season by far. Beyond Thomas, there’s every-week potential but not much consistency among Brees’ weapons. Tight end Jared Cook has posted 74+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, but is occasionally shut far out of the gameplan. Running back Alvin Kamara is a true threat to score on every touch, but has surprisingly put up just 5.6 per catch during his 7-game touchdown drought.

Back in Week 2, the 49ers allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 311 yards in a game fueled by garbage time. And to date, he’s been the only opponent to reach even 250 against the league’s most smothering unit. They lead the way comfortably in yardage allowed per attempt and per game, and only three teams have allowed more touchdowns. In their past 2 games against Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, they gave up a total of 224 yards to the pair. The pass rush is top-notch, pressuring quarterbacks at the NFL’s highest rate despite blitzing very rarely. And Richard Sherman continues to lead a shutdown secondary that’s thoroughly shut down an impressive batch of receivers, including Davante Adams (43 yards), D.J. Moore (38), and Tyler Lockett (26). Sherman’s Week 14 availability, however, is up in the air after spraining his knee last Sunday. This is a deep group, but he’s obviously a huge piece of the 49ers’ puzzle in containing Michael Thomas.

Saints vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.3)23 (+1.3)23 (+1.5)23 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.5)20 (+1.4)17 (+1.1)23 (+1.8)
10Matt Ryan79203518221213017.417.415.615.6
11Jameis Winston68305131324223022.022.018.821.8
12Kyle Allen7623362563019025.725.723.123.1
13Matt Ryan93355031222321023.723.718.622.6

Jimmy Garoppolo (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $5600)

11vs ARI7734454244217035.935.931.734.7
12vs GB4814202532021020.820.818.218.2
13@ BAL5715211651035012.812.89.110.1
14PROJ-Dodds22342591.41240.118.518.518.5 (H=40)18.5 (H=55)
14PROJ-Tremblay23342521.31350.117.917.917.9 (H=37)17.9 (H=52)
14PROJ-Bloom21322301.71110.1181818.0 (H=38)18.0 (H=53)

Saints vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.2)4 (-4.2)4 (-5.0)4 (-5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-1.3)23 (+0.8)18 (-0.1)20 (+0.2)
10Brian Hill40206102110113.114.113.614.1
10Devonta Freeman3010380431004.
11Peyton Barber12000221117.
11Ronald Jones21413042101.
12Christian McCaffrey76226419969125.334.329.834.3
12Alex Armah1310000000.
13Devonta Freeman6217510541306.410.48.410.4
13Brian Hill244130332403.

Raheem Mostert (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4600)

11vs ARI38613032.01402.
12vs GB14645131.022012.713.713.213.7
13@ BAL4219146122.08021.423.422.426.4
14PROJ-Dodds9460.21.7130. (H=13)9.4 (H=21)
14PROJ-Tremblay10440.21.9150. (H=13)9.6 (H=21)
14PROJ-Bloom11520.32.0130.18.910.99.9 (H=17)10.9 (H=27)

Matt Breida (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4600)

11vs ARI000000.000000.00.0
12vs GB000000.000000.00.0
13@ BAL000000.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds8330.21.51205.77.26.5 (H=9)7.2 (H=13)
14PROJ-Tremblay11470.21.71207.18.88.0 (H=13)8.8 (H=18)
14PROJ-Bloom9400.11.0805.46.45.9 (H=7)6.4 (H=10)

Tevin Coleman (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5100)

11vs ARI381214043.04806.
12vs GB291139142.010010.912.911.912.9
13@ BAL1056011.0901.
14PROJ-Dodds8310.21.61405.77.36.5 (H=9)7.3 (H=12)
14PROJ-Tremblay5190.11.61203.75.34.5 (H=4)5.3 (H=7)
14PROJ-Bloom9330.32.0100. (H=12)8.7 (H=16)

Jeff Wilson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs ARI100011.02518.
12vs GB5227010.0002.
13@ BAL500011.0700.
14PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay1200.3200.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Saints vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.6)22 (+3.0)24 (+3.3)23 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+4.0)23 (+5.9)23 (+5.0)23 (+5.5)
10Julio Jones63937900007.910.99.410.9
10Calvin Ridley705328011904.
11Chris Godwin686347100010.713.712.213.7
11Scott Miller35647100007.
12D.J. Moore6396126218025.431.428.434.4
12Curtis Samuel64419044004.
13Russell Gage639552100011.216.213.716.2
13Calvin Ridley871089100009.

Deebo Samuel (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5600)

11vs ARI61108.0134000013.421.417.424.4
12vs GB3522.0501000111312.013.0
13@ BAL5542.0411120012.
14PROJ-Dodds4.1570.31307.811.99.9 (H=17)11.9 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.2550.30207.511.79.6 (H=16)11.7 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0420.3000697.5 (H=10)9.0 (H=16)

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $5800)

11vs ARI3653.03300003.
12vs GB3211.01500001.
13@ BAL5664.04100004.
14PROJ-Dodds3.3400.20005.28.56.9 (H=9)8.5 (H=14)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.4300.20004.26.65.4 (H=6)6.6 (H=9)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0470.40007.111.19.1 (H=15)11.1 (H=22)

Kendrick Bourne (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

11vs ARI4264.03110009.
12vs GB2422.02700002.
13@ BAL2533.04200004.
14PROJ-Dodds2.8330.20004.57.35.9 (H=8)7.3 (H=16)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.8360.20004.87.66.2 (H=9)7.6 (H=18)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0320.3000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=19)

Marquise Goodwin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs ARI2321.0500000.
12vs GB000.000000000.00.0
13@ BAL000.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Saints vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.0)12 (-1.0)11 (-0.9)12 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.0)21 (+1.2)21 (+0.6)21 (+1.1)
10Austin Hooper58541717.711.79.711.7
11Cameron Brate5114107307.317.312.317.3
12Greg Olsen70754404.
13Jaeden Graham554441110.

George Kittle (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5900)

11vs ARI000.000000.00.0
12vs GB3866.0129118.924.921.927.9
13@ BAL5742.01701.
14PROJ-Dodds5.4710.38.914.311.6 (H=20)14.3 (H=33)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.2620.3813.210.6 (H=17)13.2 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0710.510.115.112.6 (H=24)15.1 (H=37)

Ross Dwelley (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs ARI6954.014213.417.415.417.4
12vs GB500.000000.00.0
13@ BAL100.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.650. (H=0)1.7 (H=2)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Saints vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (-0.1)25T (-0.1)19T (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+1.6)25T (+1.6)27T (+2.8) (+0.0)
10Younghoe Koo4422141415.015.0
11Matt Gay1122557.07.0
12Joey Slye23137710.010.0
13Matt Bosher0000000.00.0

Robbie Gould (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs ARI0000000.00.0
12vs GB0000000.00.0
13@ BAL1222555.05.0

Saints vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-3.2)1T (-3.2)6 (-3.2)6 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.6)3 (-4.6)3 (-4.6)3 (-4.6)
10Atlanta Falcons9310600006610.010.0
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers3432810000110.00.0
12Carolina Panthers3441821000443.03.0
13Atlanta Falcons2627900000000.00.0

San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2700)

11vs ARI26.0026640201202014.014.0
12vs GB8.00198501007711.011.0
13@ BAL20.0028310100334.04.0
14PROJ-Dodds22.903602.40.80.600. (H=19)8.1 (H=27)
14PROJ-Tremblay23.503632.410.600. (H=20)8.3 (H=28)

49ers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.9)2 (-6.0)2 (-5.0)2 (-5.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.5)16 (+0.4)18 (+1.2)20 (+1.5)
10Russell Wilson74243423211653019.919.917.617.6
11Kyler Murray69243315020867128.228.226.726.7
12Aaron Rodgers68203310410313010.510.59.510.5
13Lamar Jackson6514231051016101125.425.422.326.3

Drew Brees (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5900)

11@ TB6728352283030023.423.421.121.1
12vs CAR6530393113100026.626.623.426.4
13@ ATL481830184101-1013.113.111.311.3
14PROJ-Dodds24352641.60.7110.119.619.619.6 (H=44)19.6 (H=58)
14PROJ-Tremblay24362481.61110.118.518.518.5 (H=40)18.5 (H=53)
14PROJ-Bloom23322501.80.9110.119.519.519.5 (H=44)19.5 (H=58)

Taysom Hill (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ TB10000001200.
12vs CAR700000000010.51.0
13@ ATL1301000233116.518.517.518.5
14PROJ-Dodds1190.102150. (H=7)6.2 (H=11)
14PROJ-Tremblay003003170. (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
14PROJ-Bloom000004310. (H=8)6.5 (H=12)

49ers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.0)2 (-7.3)3 (-6.6)2 (-7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-6.5)1 (-6.9)1 (-7.1)1 (-7.8)
10Chris Carson71258914312016.119.117.619.1
10Rashaad Penny322000000.20.2-1.8-0.8
11Kenyan Drake6116670761308.
11Zach Zenner000000000.
12Jamaal Williams3911450873508.015.011.515.0
12Aaron Jones411338010003.
13Mark Ingram361559022306.
13Gus Edwards25615011702.

Alvin Kamara (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7000)

11@ TB43137501010.047012.
12vs CAR441154099.048010.219.214.719.2
13@ ATL411161084.02308.412.410.412.4
14PROJ-Dodds13600.36.8490.213.920.717.3 (H=36)20.7 (H=54)
14PROJ-Tremblay13590.37.8540.214.322.118.2 (H=40)22.1 (H=60)
14PROJ-Bloom11450.36.0460.312.718.715.7 (H=31)18.7 (H=45)

Latavius Murray (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

11@ TB291027032.0503.
12vs CAR26764100.00012.412.412.412.4
13@ ATL1342000.0000.
14PROJ-Dodds8320.31.0805.86.86.3 (H=9)6.8 (H=12)
14PROJ-Tremblay7310.30.4305.25.65.4 (H=7)5.6 (H=8)
14PROJ-Bloom7300.41.0405.86.86.3 (H=9)6.8 (H=12)

49ers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-5.3)3 (-7.5)2 (-6.8)3 (-8.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-7.1)7 (-7.5)6 (-8.3)6 (-8.9)
10DK Metcalf721067000007.
10Malik Turner35223500003.
11Larry Fitzgerald55553710009.714.710.213.7
11Pharoh Cooper18433510009.512.511.012.5
12Davante Adams6012743100010.317.315.819.3
12Allen Lazard52217012102.
13Willie Snead25211200001.
13Seth Roberts3221500000.

Michael Thomas (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $8300)

11@ TB57118.0114100017.425.421.428.4
12vs CAR581110.0101100016.
13@ ATL4086.04800004.810.87.810.8
14PROJ-Dodds7.9970.500012.720.616.6 (H=30)20.6 (H=45)
14PROJ-Tremblay8.0940.6000132117.0 (H=31)21.0 (H=47)
14PROJ-Bloom8.0850.500011.519.515.5 (H=26)19.5 (H=41)

Ted Ginn (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3600)

11@ TB3842.01410007.
12vs CAR3952.03800003.
13@ ATL2710.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.9310.20004.36.25.3 (H=7)6.2 (H=13)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.9270.20204.165.1 (H=6)6.0 (H=12)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0350.30005.37.36.3 (H=9)7.3 (H=17)

TreQuan Smith (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

11@ TB4210.000000000.00.0
12vs CAR4731.01310007.
13@ ATL3722.01400001.
14PROJ-Dodds1.3180.200034.33.7 (H=4)4.3 (H=7)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=3)3.7 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

49ers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.1)2 (-4.1)1 (-3.8)2 (-4.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.6)17 (-0.6)17 (-0.6)17 (-0.8)
10Jacob Hollister5810862112.
11Darrell Daniels111400.
12Robert Tonyan2722800.
13Mark Andrews286350111.014.012.514.0

Jared Cook (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4200)

11@ TB4922.03319.311.310.311.3
12vs CAR3886.099115.921.918.921.9
13@ ATL2963.08508.511.510.011.5
14PROJ-Dodds3.7490.47.3119.2 (H=14)11.0 (H=30)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.6440.46.810.48.6 (H=12)10.4 (H=27)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0570.58.712.710.7 (H=18)12.7 (H=38)

Josh Hill (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ TB3222.0800.
12vs CAR3111.01201.
13@ ATL2921.0200.
14PROJ-Dodds1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

49ers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-2.1)3 (-2.1)16T (-2.3) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.2)13 (-0.2)16 (+0.0) (+0.0)
10Jason Myers22339911.011.0
11Zane Gonzalez2223889.09.0
12Mason Crosby0000000.00.0
13Justin Tucker2222889.09.0

Wil Lutz (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ TB2244101011.011.0
12vs CAR2244101011.011.0
13@ ATL4422141417.017.0

49ers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (-0.3)21T (-0.3)7T (-1.6)7T (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.7)21 (+1.7)16 (-0.6)16 (-0.6)
10Seattle Seahawks2430251201232318.018.0
11Arizona Cardinals3644222000665.05.0
12Green Bay Packers373393000033-1.0-1.0
13Baltimore Ravens1733120100447.07.0

New Orleans Saints (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $3100)

11@ TB17.0033424001161617.017.0
12vs CAR31.0035140100665.05.0
13@ ATL18.0034892100151516.016.0
14PROJ-Dodds20.403632.510.700. (H=25)9.5 (H=31)
14PROJ-Tremblay20.503742.210.700. (H=24)9.2 (H=30)