Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chargers 23, Jaguars 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chargers Offense20.3 (-2.1) (22)89 (-22) (27)274 (+39) (6)
Jaguars Defense24.3 (+1.9) (22)137 (+25) (28)224 (-11) (11)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense18.3 (-4.1) (26)113 (+2) (15)246 (+11) (11)
Chargers Defense20.1 (-2.3) (10)110 (-1) (18)199 (-35) (4)

Chargers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Melvin Gordon continues to perform well with a heavy workload in this Chargers backfield, averaging 19 carries and 76 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns over his last four games. Austin Ekeler remains involved, but primarily in the passing game as he is seeing limited carries and doing very little with those rushing attempts. What has been big for Gordon is his per carry productivity, which has been a question mark for most of his career. Gordon has averaged nearly five yards per rush attempt in three straight games after mightily struggling to start his 2019 campaign. He is showing some great speed and tackle-breaking ability while running behind what has been a very shaky offensive line that is rarely making space for him. The Chargers did get both starting tackles back last week though, which should be a big boost for this unit that was otherwise ranking near the bottom of the league.

The Jaguars may have allowed just 2.4 rushing yards per carry to Tampa Bay last week, but they still gave up a pair of rushing touchdowns in what was a blowout loss to the Buccaneers. This defense has really struggled against running backs in the past four weeks, giving up the most fantasy points per game to the position since Week 9. While these past few weeks have certainly been hard to watch, this defense actually did show the ability to shut down opposing backfields a few times earlier in the year--as they held opposing running backs to 75 or fewer rushing yards in five of their first eight games. However, they are still allowing the second-most rushing yards per attempt (5.1), the second-most rushing touchdowns (17), and more runs of 40 or more yards (6) than any other team in football. With inconsistent play from their talented defensive line and flat out terrible play from the linebacker position, regardless of who has been playing, this defense will offer a good opportunity for Melvin Gordon to continue his success in Week 14.

Chargers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

If not for a stellar second half last week, Philip Rivers may not have been in line to start in Week 14 against the Jaguars. Play from Rivers has certainly dropped off this season, as he is on pace for near a career-high in interceptions and his fewest passing touchdowns in 12 years. While the yards are there with the Chargers often playing catch-up or in tight games, Rivers has simply been off in many cases this year. Still, he is supporting reasonable fantasy performances from the likes of Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler. Allen has slightly picked things up over the past few weeks, hauling in 22 receptions from 29 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games. Ekeler has also continued to contribute through the air with either a touchdown or over 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games. Hunter Henry did have a clunker last week with just two receptions for 10 yards, but he had been steadily producing in all preceding games and sees a plus matchup this week.

The Jaguars secondary had another impressive outing last week as they held both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in check, holding each to just four receptions and a combined 103 receiving yards with no touchdowns. Play from both A.J. Bouye and D.J. Hayden has been relatively solid. However, Tre Herndon has been a liability and is battling through an injury that further weakens his ability to perform. In addition, the Jaguars safeties have been very inconsistent while starter Ronnie Harrison has been sidelined since early in Week 12 and could miss this week as well. This should all help add upside to boom or bust receiver Mike Williams, who relies upon deep ball production for his fantasy viability. Keenan Allen, on the other hand, should be in for a decent challenge primarily against Hayden. Hunter Henry looks to have a ton of upside, especially if linebacker Myles Jack is unable to suit up again after missing Week 13 with a knee injury. The Jaguars defense has not given up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends, but reasonably strong coverage from these cornerbacks along with clear weaknesses and injuries at safety and linebacker should afford a solid opportunity for Henry to be productive--especially considering this defense gave up five receptions for 61 yards to the struggling O.J. Howard last week.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

The Jaguars offense has notably focused on their ground game with Leonard Fournette receiving a high volume of carries for most of the season. However, that workload has been put in question in recent weeks with Fournette seeing more than 14 carries in just one of his last four games after starting the season with more than 14 carries in seven of eight contests. While some tough recent matchups (Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Indianapolis) certainly play a part in Fournette’s lack of productivity, his increases usage through the air also plays a part in Fournette’s lack of reliability rushing the ball--as he has been targeted 23 times in the past two games along and is on pace to more than double his career highs for receiving. Fournette should remain the focal point for this offense, but it just may be tough to predict whether the touches come on the ground or through the air.

The Chargers run defense is a league-average unit that has actually done a great job at limiting rushing yards from running backs over their last four games, holding the position to just 64 rushing yards per game (third-fewest) since Week 9. That span included games against decent rushing offenses like the Broncos, Raiders, and Packers. Most fantasy points scored by running backs against this team have come through the air, but that is not to say rushing touchdowns are not to be found as they gave up a pair of touchdowns Chiefs running backs in Week 11. This recent success at limiting productivity has to be partly attributed to the defense getting healthier though, as the return of Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane to the interior of this defensive line has been huge. Having Derwin James back on the field starting last week was a big upgrade also, as he has shown the ability to make big plays against the run and should continue doing so this week against the Jaguars.

Jaguars Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

It was terrible timing for Nick Foles to have a bad outing last week as questions were already swirling about his capability to start over Gardner Minshew in this offense. After completing only half of his 14 pass attempts for 93 yards, throwing one interception, and losing two fumbles, Foles was benched at halftime in favor of Minshew to finish out the game. The Minshew era has now been revived as he will start this week against the Chargers. Minshew’s mobility adds another dimension to this passing offense, but he did struggle to throw a consistent deep ball for most of his tenure as the starter earlier this season. D.J. Chark should continue to head up this passing offense, and he will be looking to get back on track after failing to exceed 50 receiving yards in three of his last four games. It has actually been Leonard Fournette to lead the team in targets in each of the last two games as he is on pace to nearly double his career-best level of production as a receiver. Minshew didn’t quite feed Fournette double-digit targets on a weekly basis, but he did keep Fournette regularly involved and will likely continue supporting very fantasy-friendly stat lines for his star running back.

The Chargers passing defense has been a top-tier unit for most of the season, especially in recent weeks as they have given up just the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks since Week 8. Since Week 4, only two quarterbacks have exceeded 220 yards and two have exceeded one passing touchdown when facing the Chargers. Over that span, this team has also forced one interception per game in all but two outings. On top of their success, things are only looking up as All-Pro safety Derwin James returned to the field last week. Having James along with shut-down cornerback Casey Hayward will make it tough on any receiver lining up against the Chargers. While Hayward did uncharacteristically cough up two touchdowns to Courtland Sutton last week, his shadow coverage will still represent a very difficult matchup for D.J. Chark this week. The Los Angeles defensive line has only managed one sack in their last two games, but this group--led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa--has the ability to wreak havoc on these weaker Jaguars offensive tackles. Overall, Gardner Minshew should have his work cut out for him as he tries to right the ship for this Jaguars passing offense.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.5)18 (+0.4)19 (+0.7)19 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.6)25 (+2.5)21 (+1.7)18 (+1.4)
11Jacoby Brissett66152414811212117.617.616.116.1
12Ryan Tannehill53141825920740237.037.032.433.4
13Jameis Winston76213326800620015.415.410.711.7

Philip Rivers (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5600)

11vs KC8028523531400017.717.716.119.1
13@ DEN6620292652100020.320.317.617.6
14PROJ-Dodds23352601.6111018.518.518.5 (H=42)18.5 (H=55)
14PROJ-Tremblay23352561.61.112018.318.318.3 (H=42)18.3 (H=54)
14PROJ-Bloom21332621.8100019.319.319.3 (H=46)19.3 (H=60)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.6)25 (+2.6)27 (+3.2)26 (+3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+13.4)30 (+10.7)31 (+12.2)31 (+13.4)
11Marlon Mack21141091000016.916.916.919.9
11Jonathan Williams311311601131014.715.715.218.7
12Derrick Henry401915921116029.530.528.032.5
12Dion Lewis85210212404.
13Peyton Barber3017442000016.416.418.418.4
13Dare Ogunbowale23100221201.

Melvin Gordon (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6400)

11vs KC421469053.021091210.512.0
13@ DEN432099032.0110111312.013.0
14PROJ-Dodds17750.62.3160.113.315.614.5 (H=28)15.6 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay15680.52.2160.11214.213.1 (H=23)14.2 (H=30)
14PROJ-Bloom19850.52.0170.113.815.814.8 (H=29)15.8 (H=37)

Austin Ekeler (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6300)

11vs KC465240128.0108013.
13@ DEN35916054.051112.716.714.716.7
14PROJ-Dodds8300.24.5440.310.414.912.7 (H=23)14.9 (H=34)
14PROJ-Tremblay7280.24.3390.39.71411.9 (H=20)14.0 (H=30)
14PROJ-Bloom7300.14.0470.511.315.313.3 (H=25)15.3 (H=35)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.1)13 (-1.2)13 (-1.2)13 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.1)12 (-3.7)12 (-2.9)12 (-3.8)
11Marcus Johnson63443810009.813.811.813.8
11Chester Rogers322111011802.
12A.J. Brown3754135100019.523.521.526.5
12Corey Davis39322900002.
13Breshad Perriman44658700008.713.711.213.7
13Mike Evans631145300005.

Keenan Allen (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6600)

11vs KC71128.071100013.
13@ DEN6366.068100012.818.815.818.8
14PROJ-Dodds5.8670.40009.114.912.0 (H=21)14.9 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.7680.40109.31512.2 (H=22)15.0 (H=33)
14PROJ-Bloom6.0690.50009.915.912.9 (H=24)15.9 (H=36)

Mike Williams (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4500)

11vs KC7452.07600007.
13@ DEN5875.0117000011.716.714.219.7
14PROJ-Dodds3.3580.2000710.38.7 (H=14)10.3 (H=25)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.0480.20106.19.17.6 (H=11)9.1 (H=20)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0710.30008.912.910.9 (H=21)12.9 (H=37)

Andre Patton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs KC5910.000000000.00.0
13@ DEN4121.0800000.
14PROJ-Dodds1.11300001.32.41.8 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.1140.100023.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.6)9 (-1.6)12 (-0.9)10 (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.6)5 (-4.7)5 (-4.1)5 (-4.8)
11Eric Ebron29442702.
12MyCole Pruitt27112002.
13O.J. Howard63656106.111.18.611.1

Hunter Henry (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5100)

11vs KC6196.06906.912.911.914.9
13@ DEN5032.0100132.03.0
14PROJ-Dodds4.9570.48.11310.6 (H=18)13.0 (H=33)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.0570. (H=18)13.1 (H=33)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0580. (H=18)13.2 (H=34)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs KC2411.0800.
13@ DEN2310.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.3400.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (-0.3)19T (-0.3)9T (-0.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.6)19 (+0.6)14T (-0.2) (+0.0)
11Adam Vinatieri1144777.07.0
12Ryan Succop0066666.06.0
13Matt Gay2222888.08.0

Mike Badgley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs KC34009910.010.0
13@ DEN2322889.09.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+0.9)28T (+0.9)25 (+1.4)25 (+1.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+4.0)28 (+4.0)27 (+4.4)27 (+4.4)
11Indianapolis Colts1330821000448.08.0
12Tennessee Titans2036930100556.06.0
13Tampa Bay Buccaneers1124252201252523.023.0

Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2800)

11vs KC24.0031011000333.03.0
13@ DEN23.0021801000222.02.0
14PROJ-Dodds19.503532.50.90.700. (H=20)9.3 (H=33)
14PROJ-Tremblay20.003702.310.700. (H=20)9.3 (H=33)

Chargers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.8)6 (-3.8)6 (-3.4)6 (-3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.5)3 (-4.6)6 (-3.5)3 (-4.6)
10Derek Carr5821312181014015.315.313.113.1
11Patrick Mahomes68193218211559018.
13Drew Lock57182813421315015.215.213.913.9

Gardner Minshew (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5400)

11@ IND000000000000.00.0
12@ TEN000000000000.00.0
13vs TB4516271471128011.211.211.711.7
14PROJ-Dodds22352381.30.84200.118.918.918.9 (H=49)18.9 (H=60)
14PROJ-Tremblay22362611.414200. (H=55)20.2 (H=67)
14PROJ-Bloom19312001.414210.117.317.317.3 (H=42)17.3 (H=51)

Chargers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.9)24 (+2.4)24 (+2.5)24 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.7)27 (+5.2)26 (+4.1)26 (+4.6)
10Josh Jacobs30167115330016.119.117.619.1
10Alec Ingold1213011917.
11LeSean McCoy2772916428011.715.713.715.7
11Darrel Williams2911351328010.312.311.312.3
13Phillip Lindsay251758033406.
13Royce Freeman325110441302.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7800)

11@ IND45823077.03405.712.79.212.7
12@ TEN8224972129.062027.936.932.436.9
13vs TB6514380119.05309.118.113.618.1
14PROJ-Dodds20830.55.0340.115.320.317.8 (H=39)20.3 (H=47)
14PROJ-Tremblay20870.45.2380.115.520.718.1 (H=40)20.7 (H=48)
14PROJ-Bloom19730.55.0290.113.818.816.3 (H=33)18.8 (H=41)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4300)

11@ IND1416022.01301.
12@ TEN400010.000000.00.0
13vs TB800010.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1400.8500.91.71.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
14PROJ-Tremblay0200.7500.71.41.0 (H=0)1.4 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chargers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.2)4 (-6.9)4 (-5.9)4 (-7.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-10.6)1 (-15.9)1 (-13.2)1 (-17.0)
10Hunter Renfrow31544200004.
10Tyrell Williams49532500002.
11Sammy Watkins56322600002.
11Mecole Hardman52421300001.
13Courtland Sutton565474200019.423.421.423.4
13DaeSean Hamilton37321200001.

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $6200)

11@ IND59158.0104200022.430.426.433.4
12@ TEN8365.03800003.88.88.310.8
13vs TB6752.04700004.
14PROJ-Dodds4.3630.40008.71310.9 (H=20)13.0 (H=27)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.2620.40008.612.810.7 (H=19)12.8 (H=26)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0640.50009.413.411.4 (H=21)13.4 (H=28)

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5200)

11@ IND5364.03200003.
12@ TEN7498.06900006.914.910.914.9
13vs TB5785.0601000121716.519.0
14PROJ-Dodds4.4470.30006.510.98.8 (H=13)11.0 (H=24)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.8460.30006.410.28.4 (H=12)10.3 (H=21)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0440.40006.811.89.4 (H=15)11.9 (H=28)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ IND6086.05800005.811.88.811.8
12@ TEN6594.04900004.
13vs TB5554.05700005.
14PROJ-Dodds3.3480.200069.37.7 (H=12)9.3 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.3510.20006.39.68.0 (H=13)9.6 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0530.30007.111.19.1 (H=16)11.1 (H=32)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ IND2554.04100004.
12@ TEN3122.01800001.
13vs TB3921.01100001.
14PROJ-Dodds1.3160.10002.23.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.5190.10002.543.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0100.10001.62.62.1 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)

Chargers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.9)8 (-1.7)8T (-1.3)8 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.0)20 (+0.2)19 (+0.1)20 (+0.0)
10Darren Waller56534004.
11Travis Kelce6510792115.222.218.722.2
13Jeff Heuerman28531501.

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

12@ TEN4544.03603.
13vs TB4741.0600.
14PROJ-Dodds2.1200. (H=4)4.7 (H=10)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.7180. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)

Seth DeValve (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2600)

11@ IND000.000000.00.0
12@ TEN000.000000.00.0
13vs TB000.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.3150. (H=2)3.4 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chargers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-0.9)7 (-0.9)9T (-0.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+1.9)28T (+1.9)30 (+3.1) (+0.0)
10Daniel Carlson2323889.09.0
11Harrison Butker1133667.07.0
13Brandon McManus3322111115.015.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ IND0111111.01.0
12@ TEN2200669.09.0
13vs TB1100335.05.0

Chargers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.5)21T (+0.5)19 (+0.2)19 (+0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28T (+4.0)28T (+4.0)26 (+4.1)26 (+4.1)
10Oakland Raiders2431553001171717.017.0
11Kansas City Chiefs1743824000101011.011.0
13Denver Broncos2035931100778.08.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $3100)

11@ IND33.0038931100776.06.0
12@ TEN42.0047110200551.01.0
13vs TB28.0031540100666.06.0
14PROJ-Dodds22.603632.510.600. (H=19)8.6 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay23.003582.31.10.600. (H=19)8.6 (H=26)