Matchup Analysis: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Dolphins 19, Jets 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense16.7 (-5.8) (29)63 (-48) (32)214 (-20) (24)
Jets Defense23.3 (+0.9) (19)75 (-35) (1)242 (+7) (19)

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense17.0 (-5.4) (28)73 (-38) (31)190 (-44) (30)
Dolphins Defense31.4 (+9.0) (32)144 (+32) (31)256 (+21) (23)

Dolphins Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The 2019 Dolphins run game hasn’t merely been unproductive; it’s been difficult to watch such a display of ineptitude and bad injury luck. They sit dead last league-wide in attempts, yards per attempt, and yards per game, with their top three Opening Day backs all shelved or shipped away. Kalen Ballage is the latest to leave the lineup, landing on injured reserve to close out arguably the worst season in league history (1.8 yards per rush over 74 attempts). Going forward, it appears rookies Myles Gaskin (seventh round) and Patrick Laird (undrafted) will pair to lead the league’s most punchless running game. Last week, they combined to turn 10 carries into just 25 yards, and their outlook gets no better against the Jets’ smothering run defense. There’s a chance that journeyman Zach Zenner, who just signed this week, could stake a quick claim to some work. But with no upside to speak of and zero-point floors, there’s no reason to target anyone from this backfield in fantasy.

Amidst a truly lost season, the Jets can at least look to their run defense as a point of pride. They’ve faced the league’s 17th-most attempts, but have somehow given up the fewest yards. They haven’t let a runner reach 45 yards since Week 8, shutting down the likes of Saquon Barkley (13 carries for 1 yard), Josh Jacobs (10 for 34), and Derrius Guice (7 for 24) along the way. The Jets’ linebacking corps has been injury-ravaged and shaky at best, which highlights just how strong the play of the front line has been. Steve McLendon, Quinnen Williams, and Foley Fatukasi routinely control the gaps, leaving the second level clean to plug the gaps at least adequately. And they can always count on top-notch support from dynamic safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye - though Adams is legitimately questionable for Sunday with an ankle sprain. Overall, it’s never wise to project much success against this unit, and that goes extra for the Dolphins’ toothless attack.

Dolphins Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jets defense.

For better or worse, Ryan Fitzpatrick has cemented himself as the 3-9 Dolphins’ starter to close the season. That’s a strong indictment of youngster Josh Rosen, who may have already worn his welcome out in Miami after just six appearances. Fitzpatrick has moved the ball much better than Rosen did, and his output has at least been strong in alternating weeks. Dating back to Week 6, he’s posted 4 days of 280+ yards and 4 multi-touchdown games. Last Sunday represented one of his best starts in several years, going 27 of 39 for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns (with an interception) in an upset win over the Eagles. Fitzpatrick doesn’t throw to much firepower, though he clearly has something going with DeVante Parker. Over 4 games since Preston Williams’ injury, Parker has turned 41 targets into an average of 6 receptions and 114 yards. Last week he hauled in two impressive touchdowns, from 43 and 17 yards out, and also drew a big pass interference call in the end zone. He’s now a weekly fantasy consideration, though it’s always hard to pinpoint who else will produce in this attack. Tight end Mike Gesicki has drawn 6+ targets in 5 straight games, though he’s only cleared 30 yards twice over that span. He’s volatile, but he’s the closest thing this unit has to a second fantasy option.

The Jets pass defense remains a work in progress. They’ve shown progress of late, holding their last 3 opponents to just 5.7 yards per attempt and 201 a game. But those numbers were built on matchups with Dwayne Haskins, Derek Carr, and Andy Dalton. Prior to that, they’d been worked over by the likes of Daniel Jones (308 and 4 touchdowns), Ryan Fitzpatrick (288 and 3), and Gardner Minshew (279 and 3). Over that span, they gave up huge receiving lines to the likes of Darius Slayton (10 for 121 and 2), Chris Conley (4 for 103 and 1), and Mike Gesicki (6 for 95). The going will be even tougher if Jamal Adams, arguably the NFL’s premier safety, is sidelined by an ankle sprain. Adams is counted on heavily to help a young, shaky cornerback group down the field, and his absence would make the deep ball much more attractive for Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is a favorable fantasy matchup even at full strength, though, making Fitzpatrick’s sneaky Week 14 appeal even brighter.

Jets Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Even in generous matchups, Le’Veon Bell seems stuck in quicksand and incapable of breaking out. The $35 million Bell has been in on 83% of Jets snaps, but somehow has yet to reach the 600-yard mark through 12 games. He’s averaging an anemic 3.2 per rush and 49 a game, lending a ton of credence to the “don’t pay running backs” refrain. His low point came last week, with just 32 yards on 10 attempts against the Bengals’ laughingstock of a defense. Of course, it doesn’t help that Bell is working behind one of the league’s weaker front lines, currently ranked 22nd by Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti, or that the Jets passing game has been so shaky. But Bell has shown virtually none of his trademark agility or creativity, and he can’t be counted on to get much more than what’s blocked. The Jets rotate in Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery for a handful of opportunities, but neither has found much room themselves. It’s hard to project more than baseline production for Bell, even in favorable spots like this weekend’s meeting with the Dolphins.

The Dolphins defense continues to flail badly against the run. Just about every opponent that commits itself at all to the ground game finds plenty of success in this matchup. On the year, lead runners have produced 5.0 yards per carry and 92 per game. With no real difference-makers along the line, the Dolphins’ subpar linebacking corps is tasked with virtually all of the pursuit and playmaking. Middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan has enjoyed something of a breakout season, but he gets very little help on the second level. As a result, workhorse backs can generally be trusted to produce at or near the top of their ranges in this matchup. The Jets’ Le’Veon Bell churned out close to four yards per carry when these teams met in Week 9 - not very impressive on its face, but resulting in 66 yards, Bell’s third-highest total of the year.

Jets Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

The Jets passing game, always in flux, enters Week 14 arguably fresh of their own rock bottom. In a dream matchup with the Bengals’ bottom-tier defense, Sam Darnold needed 48 erratic attempts to put up 239 yards in an embarrassing, touchdown-less Jets display. It certainly couldn’t all be blamed on Darnold, who received little blocking and had several passes dropped. But it’s concerning that he’s only been effective in three of his eight games back from his bout with mono. It’s important to remember, though, that Darnold is at least a year younger than most franchise quarterbacks in this boat. His arm talent does occasionally shine through, with strong, aggressive throws to Robby Anderson here and there. But there’s not much dynamism elsewhere - Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas have posted just 10.9 yards per catch - and not nearly enough consistency to trust. Even in a plus matchup, it’s hard to find a legitimate fantasy starter from this attack.

Opponents of the 3-9 Dolphins typically don’t have to throw much to win. They’ve faced just 33 dropbacks per game, the league’s ninth-lowest number, and only one opponent (last week’s Panthers) has had to put the ball in the air 40+ times. Even so, the Dolphins still manage to present one of fantasy’s best matchups for efficiency purposes. With top cornerback Xavien Howard out, there’s very little resistance from anywhere in this talent-deprived secondary. They’ve allowed a wideout to record 137+ yards in 3 straight weeks, with speed demons (John Brown) and possession guys (Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery) alike posting huge stat lines. This group badly misses Howard, but more so safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was a difference-making force down the field. As it stands, this is one of the game’s weakest units overall, and opposing passers always project to strong efficiency in this matchup - even Sam Darnold. Some of 2019’s most disappointing quarterbacks have managed strong lines against Miami, including the likes of Philip Rivers (310 yards and 2 touchdowns), Baker Mayfield (327 and 3), and Carson Wentz just last week (310 and 3).

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.0)17 (-0.1)17 (-0.2)15 (-0.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.0)11 (-2.1)12 (-1.5)13 (-1.3)
10Daniel Jones71264030840320033.433.430.334.3
11Dwayne Haskins6819352142145018.
12Derek Carr4315271270111106.
13Andy Dalton662237243105-4015.815.813.313.3

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6000)

11vs BUF6932453230010016.216.212.915.9
12@ CLE63213921422545127.
13vs PHI7227393653132029.529.527.830.8
14PROJ-Dodds22352421.41.14130. (H=44)19.1 (H=55)
14PROJ-Tremblay21332271.31.1390.217.517.517.5 (H=38)17.5 (H=47)
14PROJ-Bloom25382411.613110.320.420.420.4 (H=50)20.4 (H=61)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.2)11 (-1.2)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-6.5)4 (-6.1)3 (-6.1)3 (-6.7)
10Saquon Barkley591310553003.
10Wayne Gallman1212021300.
11Derrius Guice2072402145112.913.913.413.9
11Adrian Peterson17925022503.
12Jalen Richard23240764705.
12Josh Jacobs231034011203.
13Joe Mixon52194414426013.
13Giovani Bernard1314021801.

Patrick Laird (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4100)

11vs BUF1617066.05105.811.88.811.8
12@ CLE23320010.000222.02.0
13vs PHI43105154.043010.814.814.816.8
14PROJ-Dodds11340.23.8280.1811.89.9 (H=19)11.8 (H=35)
14PROJ-Tremblay10330.33.7270.18.412.110.3 (H=20)12.1 (H=36)
14PROJ-Bloom10310.34.0270. (H=20)12.2 (H=37)

Myles Gaskin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

11vs BUF710010.000000.00.0
12@ CLE16410011.0701.
13vs PHI16220011.0602.
14PROJ-Dodds4160.11.4903.14.53.8 (H=4)4.5 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay4150.11.0702.83.83.3 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom5210.12.0130. (H=8)6.6 (H=15)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.6)24 (+3.5)23 (+3.2)22 (+3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.1)16 (-0.0)17 (+0.5)18 (+0.3)
10Darius Slayton671410121200024.
10Golden Tate688495200021.525.521.524.5
11Terry McLaurin62436900006.
11Kelvin Harmon63655300005.310.37.810.3
12Hunter Renfrow25533100003.
12Tyrell Williams45621800001.
13Tyler Boyd5510559100011.916.914.416.9
13Auden Tate53746600006.610.68.610.6

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6900)

11vs BUF62107.0135000013.520.517.023.5
12@ CLE63116.09100009.
13vs PHI59107.0159200027.934.931.437.9
14PROJ-Dodds5.3760.40001015.312.7 (H=22)15.3 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.3760.40001015.312.7 (H=22)15.3 (H=32)
14PROJ-Bloom6.0790.500010.916.913.9 (H=26)16.9 (H=38)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4100)

11vs BUF6064.05300005.
12@ CLE5774.042100010.
13vs PHI5843.03300003.
14PROJ-Dodds3.1390.20005.18.26.7 (H=10)8.2 (H=18)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.8360.20004.87.66.2 (H=9)7.6 (H=16)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0460.30006.410.48.4 (H=15)10.4 (H=28)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4000)

11vs BUF3663.02600002.
12@ CLE3076.03301403.
13vs PHI3855.032023106.311.38.811.3
14PROJ-Dodds3.3310.21304.67.96.3 (H=9)7.9 (H=17)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.8290.21304.47.25.8 (H=8)7.2 (H=15)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0340.20004.69.67.1 (H=11)9.6 (H=25)

Isaiah Ford (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

13vs PHI1910.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.1130.10001.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.9110.10101.82.72.3 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.0)5 (-2.7)5 (-2.3)5 (-2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.8)14 (-2.4)14 (-2.1)14 (-2.5)
10Rhett Ellison35334204.
11Jeremy Sprinkle50321617.
12Darren Waller53634104.
13C.J. Uzomah47655105.110.17.610.1

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

11vs BUF5964.01801.
12@ CLE5773.02818.811.810.311.8
13vs PHI5375.079113.918.916.418.9
14PROJ-Dodds3.6390. (H=10)8.7 (H=21)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.9300. (H=7)7.1 (H=14)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0420.46.610.68.6 (H=15)10.6 (H=29)

Durham Smythe (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs BUF800.000000.00.0
12@ CLE3920.000000.00.0
13vs PHI3732.01301.
14PROJ-Dodds0.6700.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-0.1)15T (-0.1)5T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.7)4 (-2.7)5 (-2.7) (+0.0)
10Aldrick Rosas0012111.01.0
11Dustin Hopkins1200334.04.0
12Daniel Carlson1200334.04.0
13Randy Bullock2322889.09.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs BUF0022222.02.0
12@ CLE1133666.06.0
13vs PHI11235513.614.1

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (+2.2)5T (+2.2)10T (+4.6)10T (+4.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.6)5 (-3.6)10 (-2.6)10 (-2.6)
10New York Giants3429420000221.01.0
11Washington Redskins3440021100665.05.0
12Oakland Raiders3440110100332.02.0
13Cincinnati Bengals6271400004413.013.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3700, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs BUF37.0042400001662.02.0
12@ CLE41.004671100033-1.0-1.0
13vs PHI31.0038621000443.03.0
14PROJ-Dodds24.703302.310.60.10.4888.0 (H=19)8.0 (H=24)
14PROJ-Tremblay24.753312.110.600. (H=18)7.8 (H=23)

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+4.2)27 (+4.2)31 (+4.8)28 (+4.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.8)29 (+4.7)29 (+5.3)30 (+5.8)
10Brian Hoyer7018392041320011.
11Josh Allen72213325630756136.436.433.833.8
12Baker Mayfield7524343273125027.927.924.627.6
13Carson Wentz7128463103100026.526.525.428.4

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6000)

11@ WAS711930293412-3029.429.426.426.4
12vs OAK59202931520416131.431.428.231.2
13@ CIN7428482390029012.912.910.510.5
14PROJ-Dodds21342401.70.9270.219.819.819.8 (H=45)19.8 (H=58)
14PROJ-Tremblay20322281.61250.117.917.917.9 (H=38)17.9 (H=49)
14PROJ-Bloom23342191.51260. (H=35)17.2 (H=46)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+4.2)27 (+3.4)21T (+3.9)29 (+4.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.6)20 (+0.4)21 (+1.1)21 (+0.6)
10Marlon Mack321974011808.
10Nyheim Hines303140743004.
11Devin Singletary531575011407.
11Frank Gore1911270211804.
12Nick Chubb432110614358022.425.423.928.4
12Kareem Hunt438371329010.612.611.612.6
13Miles Sanders62178305522116.521.519.021.5
13Jay Ajayi929000000.

LeVeon Bell (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $7200)

11@ WAS391859122.033015.
12vs OAK361249055.059010.815.813.315.8
13@ CIN631032054.03506.710.78.710.7
14PROJ-Dodds15580.43.7320.11215.713.9 (H=26)15.7 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay13510.43.0240.110.513.512.0 (H=20)13.5 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom16690.44.0360.113.517.515.5 (H=31)17.5 (H=39)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3500)

11@ WAS16742021.0504.
12vs OAK15515021.050232.53.0
13@ CIN11414022.0401.
14PROJ-Dodds5220.21.0704.15.14.6 (H=5)5.1 (H=9)
14PROJ-Tremblay5220.21.4120. (H=8)6.6 (H=15)
14PROJ-Bloom4130.11.0502.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ WAS15211010.0001.
12vs OAK1252021.02102.
13@ CIN417011.0100.
14PROJ-Dodds3100.10.8502.12.92.5 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay3110.11.0802.53.53.0 (H=2)3.5 (H=4)
14PROJ-Bloom1301.0400.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.0)27 (+4.4)29 (+5.0)27 (+5.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+6.4)27 (+7.6)27 (+7.5)26 (+9.2)
10Chester Rogers35423100003.
10Zach Pascal69722600002.
11John Brown71149137200025.734.730.237.7
11Cole Beasley65443800003.
12Jarvis Landry711310148200026.836.831.839.8
12Odell Beckham758684100014.420.417.420.4
13Alshon Jeffery64169137100019.728.724.231.7
13J.J. Arcega-Whiteside27211510007.

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5100)

11@ WAS5931.0610006.
12vs OAK5254.086100014.618.616.618.6
13@ CIN65107.0101000010.117.113.620.1
14PROJ-Dodds3.5540.40007.811.39.6 (H=15)11.3 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.1460.30006.49.58.0 (H=11)9.5 (H=19)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0590.50008.912.910.9 (H=19)12.9 (H=32)

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5300)

11@ WAS4185.076100013.618.616.118.6
12vs OAK4142.01800001.
13@ CIN6392.0800000.
14PROJ-Dodds4.6530.40007.712.310.0 (H=17)12.3 (H=29)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.0480.40007.211.29.2 (H=15)11.2 (H=24)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0460.30006.411.48.9 (H=14)11.4 (H=25)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3700)

11@ WAS4654.04400004.
12vs OAK4432.02200002.
13@ CIN5553.02300002.
14PROJ-Dodds3.4400.20005.28.66.9 (H=11)8.6 (H=22)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.5470.30006.5108.3 (H=15)10.0 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0270.20003.96.95.4 (H=7)6.9 (H=15)

Vyncint Smith (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ WAS2110.00000000-2.0-1.0
12vs OAK1711.02200002.
13@ CIN2032.02300002.
14PROJ-Dodds0.8120.10001.82.62.2 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.9130.10202.132.6 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
14PROJ-Bloom1.01300001.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Braxton Berrios (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ WAS600.000000000.00.0
12vs OAK311.06900006.
13@ CIN821.0500000.
14PROJ-Dodds0.4700000.71.10.9 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.3400000.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.1)21 (+0.5)21 (+0.3)21 (+0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.9)23 (+2.9)23 (+2.4)23 (+2.7)
10Jack Doyle424344110.413.411.913.4
11Dawson Knox51323219.
12Demetrius Harris51222002.
13Dallas Goedert40766606.612.69.612.6

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4100)

11@ WAS6055.0109116.921.919.424.9
12vs OAK5533.01317.310.38.810.3
13@ CIN6275.0300385.58.0
14PROJ-Dodds3.2310. (H=9)8.1 (H=18)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.5250. (H=7)6.8 (H=13)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0290. (H=11)9.3 (H=23)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+2.8)32 (+2.8)32 (+3.4) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+3.8)32 (+3.8)32 (+4.3) (+0.0)
10Adam Vinatieri2201666.06.0
11Steve Hauschka3344131315.015.0
12Austin Seibert2355111112.012.0
13Jake Elliott3422111113.013.0

Sam Ficken (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ WAS0145444.04.0
12vs OAK2344101010.010.0
13@ CIN2200667.07.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+2.8)29 (+2.8)30 (+4.2)30 (+4.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.1)17 (-0.1)14 (-1.1)14 (-1.1)
10Indianapolis Colts1622931100778.08.0
11Buffalo Bills20303701009910.010.0
12Cleveland Browns2428442000888.08.0
13Philadelphia Eagles3740931000551.01.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $3200)

11@ WAS17.0022561000889.09.0
12vs OAK3.0020811101111118.018.0
13@ CIN22.0027710010332.02.0
14PROJ-Dodds19.102982.81.10.800.611.711.711.7 (H=34)11.7 (H=44)
14PROJ-Tremblay19.253012.21.10.800.611.111.111.1 (H=31)11.1 (H=40)