Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Chiefs 23, Patriots 26

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense29.0 (+6.6) (3)94 (-16) (24)290 (+55) (3)
Patriots Defense12.1 (-10.3) (1)94 (-16) (5)163 (-71) (2)

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense26.8 (+4.4) (6)96 (-14) (21)264 (+29) (8)
Chiefs Defense22.1 (-0.3) (16)141 (+30) (30)231 (-4) (16)

Chiefs Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Chiefs running back situation continues to be a revolving door as Darrell Williams was injured early in the game last week with a knee and hamstring injury that will likely keep him out this week. Damien Williams looks like he also is unlikely to play with a rib injury leaving just LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson as the two running backs for the Chiefs. This caused the Chiefs to go out and sign Spencer Ware this week. Ware who knows the offense after spending the last four years in Kansas City should be able to immediately come in and contribute after the Chiefs. It will likely be a rotating backfield as LeSean McCoy just does not look like he can handle a workload any longer after having just five carries for 10 yards last week, and Darwin Thompson has just 16 career carries with 11 of them coming out of necessity last week.

The Patriots run defense outside of a few performances has held opposing running backs in check as they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. They did a tremendous job shutting down Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson holding the pair of running backs to just 53 yards on 19 carries. This has been a theme for the Patriots as they are near dominant against average to below-average run games as they have only allowed five running backs to rush for over 40 yards. When the Patriots want to sell out to shut down the run particularly in the red zone they are one of the best at it as they have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the season. This is by no means a dominant defense as they have allowed 4.4 yards-per-carry on the season, but where they have been vulnerable have been in games that they have in control such as the Jets, Bills, or Browns this season and teams committing to the run while the Patriots have their dime prevent defense to stop the pass.

Chiefs Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

If you look at the score last week you might think Patrick Mahomes had one of his quintessential days of throwing for 400 yards in a dominating performance as the Chiefs won 40-7. However, it was the exact opposite for the Chiefs this past week as Mahomes completed just 52% of his passes and threw for just 175 yards. What is interesting is that Mahomes in non-injury games has thrown for less than 240 yards just twice in his career and both of those games were in the past two weeks as he threw for 175 yards last week and 182 yards in Week 11. While both performances were wins, the problem in Kansas City has been their receiving group outside of Tyreek Hill. Last week not a single receiver caught a pass besides Hill, and in the game against the Chargers in which he left early due to injury, Sammy Watkins led the receiving group with just two receptions for 26 yards. With both Damien Williams and Darrell Williams out in the running game, the Chiefs are going to desperately need another player to step up whether it is Watkins, Mecole Hardman, or another player such as Byron Pringle.

For the first time all season, the Patriots secondary looked a step slow compared to the Texans. While statistically, they held the Texans to just 235 yards passing, they did allow four touchdowns including a 35-yard passing touchdown to Kenny Stills. The Patriots had a rough week as Jason McCourty was out, and the team had the flu circling through their locker room keeping several players out of practice this week, and they did look much better in the second half of the game after half-time adjustments. This was just a game in which they did not come out and perform to their standard, but the overall story is that this is still the best passing defense in football as they have allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 250 yards which was to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1. It is a very disciplined team that all know their role led by Stephon Gilmore and the safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon. If they get Jason McCourty back this week, it will minimize their one weakness which has been J.C. Jackson and allow him back to his normal slot position.

Patriots Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

For the third time in four games, the Patriots have gone away from the running game and Sony Michel in particular as he now has 10 carries or less in three of his last four contests. What is interesting about this is that the Patriots did not abandon the running game as their running backs ran the ball a total of 27 times last week it was just that James White had 14 of those carries which was the first time that White has had double-digit carries in a game in over a year. While this could be game script dependent as the Patriots fell behind early, it does mark a shift that the Patriots are ultimately looking for playmakers to step up in this offense.

The Chiefs rushing defense has been a problem all season. Even in a game that they won 40-7 last week, they allowed Josh Jacobs to rack up 104 yards which was the seventh time that a running back has rushed for 99 yards or more on the season. The issue for the Chiefs is that they are a team designed to stop the pass as they have one of the worst run-stopping front sevens in football as linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson have both struggled with gap discipline and the defensive ends in Frank Clark and Tanoh Kpassagnon specialize in the pass rush. This is a team that on the year has allowed the second-highest yards-per-carry to running backs at 5.1.

Patriots Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

The Patriots passing offense over the last four games has been struggling mightily. While Tom Brady threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns last week, that was mostly in garbage time when the game was already out of hand as this was a unit that struggled for most of the game completing just 51% of their passes. Brady has completed 55% or fewer in three consecutive games and while the first two of those three were mostly written off as weather games, the lack of production is starting to become a concern for the Patriots who are desperately trying to find a second receiving option outside of Julien Edelman. While Mohamed Sanu was active, he played just 22% of the plays for the Patriots and caught just three passes for 14 yards as the Patriots are still trying to find a way to get a return on their trade for a second-round pick earlier this year. Philip Dorsett, Jacobi Meyers, and NíKeal Harry all struggled as well as they had a total of just five receptions amongst the three of them on 14 targets. The Patriots turned heavily to James White in the second half while trying to mount a comeback, and if the receiving troubles continue one would have to question whether the Patriots just have to keep White on the field at a rate much higher than the 40% that he is seeing now.

The Chiefs pass defense has been one of the bright spots on the season. While it is not a shut-down unit, it is a unit that has been much improved compared to 2018 where it was one of the worst units in football. The Chiefs have allowed the 17th most yards to quarterbacks per game at 253, and the 17th most touchdowns with 1.5 per game. This is a unit that has allowed just three teams to throw for 300 yards on the year two of which were in garbage time performances in Jacksonville and the Chargers. At the cornerback position, they are by no means an elite unit, but one that has been consistent with very little weaknesses, but the real story has been the play of their safeties as Juan Thornhill and Tyrann Mathieu both have been strong in coverage this season. If there is a weakness in this passing game it is the linebackers covering running backs. On the year, no team has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Chiefs as Anthony Hitchens and the linebacking group has struggled for most of the season.

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.3)1 (-7.2)1 (-6.6)1 (-7.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.8)12 (-1.6)11 (-1.8)9 (-2.3)
11Carson Wentz75204021410317016.416.412.313.3
12Dak Prescott6419332120114010.
13Deshaun Watson561825234304-1030.231.228.428.9

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $8400, DraftKings: $7000)

11@ LAC681932182115590181816.216.2
13vs OAK66152917510325121.321.319.519.5
14PROJ-Dodds24372881.80.82150.122.922.922.9 (H=53)22.9 (H=64)
14PROJ-Tremblay25392861.70.92120.1222222.0 (H=50)22.0 (H=60)
14PROJ-Bloom22302612.20.53240.2252525.0 (H=62)25.0 (H=75)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-6.7)1 (-7.7)1 (-7.6)1 (-7.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-4.5)9 (-4.9)10 (-4.6)7 (-5.5)
11Miles Sanders641138042904.
11Boston Scott14726000002.
12Ezekiel Elliott56218604440012.616.614.616.6
12Tony Pollard12419043902.
13Duke Johnson3893606554115.020.017.520.0
13Carlos Hyde211017011502.

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4400)

11@ LAC27729164.028011.715.713.715.7
13vs OAK24510133.020091210.512.0
14PROJ-Dodds10420.32.11707.79.88.8 (H=14)9.8 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay9380.31.4906.57.97.2 (H=10)7.9 (H=16)
14PROJ-Bloom11530.63.0220.111.714.713.2 (H=28)14.7 (H=47)

Darwin Thompson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ LAC000000.000000.00.0
13vs OAK241144100.00010.410.410.410.4
14PROJ-Dodds8380.31.6110. (H=14)8.9 (H=22)
14PROJ-Tremblay0200.3200.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom10520. (H=16)9.2 (H=23)

Spencer Ware (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Damien Williams (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

11@ LAC1247011.0601.
13vs OAK000000.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay5180.12.0140. (H=6)6.4 (H=11)
14PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.6)1 (-10.8)1 (-9.9)1 (-11.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-6.6)5 (-10.5)5 (-8.6)5 (-11.7)
11Nelson Agholor66944000004.
11J.J. Arcega-Whiteside19112900002.
12Randall Cobb29748600008.612.610.612.6
12Michael Gallup63645500005.
13Kenny Stills384361100012.115.113.615.1
13DeAndre Hopkins478564000010.715.713.115.6

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $8100)

11@ LAC720.000000000.00.0
13vs OAK5485.05501-405.110.17.610.1
14PROJ-Dodds5.7820.513011.517.214.4 (H=24)17.2 (H=34)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.9830.503011.617.514.6 (H=25)17.5 (H=35)
14PROJ-Bloom6.0730.700011.517.514.5 (H=24)17.5 (H=35)

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4600)

11@ LAC5632.02600002.
13vs OAK4130.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds3.6460.30006.4108.2 (H=13)10.0 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.2530.30107.211.49.3 (H=16)11.4 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0280.2000465.0 (H=5)6.0 (H=9)

Mecole Hardman (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3800)

11@ LAC5242.01300001.
13vs OAK2600.0001900.
14PROJ-Dodds1.5270.10003.34.84.2 (H=4)4.9 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.9130.101022.92.6 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0390.4160. (H=15)9.6 (H=26)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

11@ LAC3910.000000000.00.0
13vs OAK3800.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.6230.10002.94.53.7 (H=4)4.5 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.3170.10002.33.63.0 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-1.3)7 (-2.2)7 (-1.7)7 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+3.0)25 (+4.5)25 (+3.8)25 (+4.4)
11Dallas Goedert61633619.612.611.112.6
12Blake Jarwin29431701.
13Darren Fells42322318.310.39.310.3

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6200)

11@ LAC65107.092115.222.218.722.2
13vs OAK6195.090091411.514.0
14PROJ-Dodds5.7730.49.715.412.6 (H=22)15.4 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.9730.49.715.612.7 (H=22)15.6 (H=37)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0660.59.614.612.1 (H=21)14.6 (H=33)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ LAC000.000000.00.0
13vs OAK3410.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.1)2 (-3.1)2 (-3.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-0.8)11T (-0.8)12 (-0.9) (+0.0)
11Jake Elliott1111445.05.0
12Brett Maher34009910.010.0
13Kaimi Fairbairn0044444.04.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ LAC1133667.07.0
13vs OAK11558810.010.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.5)21T (+0.5)7T (-1.6)7T (-1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-4.7)2 (-4.7)5 (-3.6)5 (-3.6)
11Philadelphia Eagles1729810000112.02.0
12Dallas Cowboys1328220000226.06.0
13Houston Texans2244831000555.05.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2200)

11@ LAC17.0043824000101011.011.0
13vs OAK9.0033222101141420.020.0
14PROJ-Dodds25.103822.30.90.600. (H=19)7.2 (H=27)
14PROJ-Tremblay25.753962.610.600. (H=20)7.4 (H=29)

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.8)20 (+0.8)21 (+1.2)21 (+0.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.3)7 (-3.4)9 (-2.4)10 (-2.1)
10Ryan Tannehill52131918120337020.820.818.919.9
11Philip Rivers8028523531400017.717.716.119.1
13Derek Carr6020302221237013.813.811.611.6

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6100)

11@ PHI742647216001-1010.710.78.58.5
12vs DAL701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3
13@ HOU87244732631113028.628.625.328.3
14PROJ-Dodds24392721.70.8120.120.420.420.4 (H=48)20.4 (H=60)
14PROJ-Tremblay25412791.71240.120.820.820.8 (H=49)20.8 (H=62)
14PROJ-Bloom26362711.81110.120.420.420.4 (H=48)20.4 (H=60)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+6.5)32 (+7.1)31 (+6.5)32 (+8.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.9)28 (+6.8)28 (+6.5)28 (+9.2)
10Derrick Henry37231882223031.
10Dion Lewis1500000000.
11Austin Ekeler465240128108013.
11Melvin Gordon4214690532109.012.010.512.0
13Josh Jacobs34171040000010.410.410.413.4
13DeAndre Washington15250334404.

James White (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5500)

11@ PHI32520074.01603.
12vs DAL2125031.0-60-
13@ HOU6814790118.098229.737.733.737.7
14PROJ-Dodds6290.24.8420.29.514.311.9 (H=24)14.3 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay7320.25.2440.21015.212.6 (H=26)15.2 (H=40)
14PROJ-Bloom5240.15.0460.4101512.5 (H=26)15.0 (H=39)

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5600)

11@ PHI221033042.01104.
12vs DAL362085000.0008.
13@ HOU151045000.0004.
14PROJ-Dodds14600.40.96099.99.5 (H=14)9.9 (H=18)
14PROJ-Tremblay14580.41.0809109.5 (H=14)10.0 (H=19)
14PROJ-Bloom12500.51.0508.59.59.0 (H=13)9.5 (H=17)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3400)

11@ PHI21514032.03404.
12vs DAL1523052.01401.
13@ HOU4315010.0001.
14PROJ-Dodds4170.11.8160. (H=6)6.3 (H=14)
14PROJ-Tremblay3150.12.2180. (H=7)6.7 (H=15)
14PROJ-Bloom3140. (H=3)4.2 (H=7)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-5.2)2 (-8.0)3 (-6.5)2 (-8.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.9)2 (-13.5)2 (-11.3)2 (-15.0)
10Adam Humphries34112310008.
10Kalif Raymond10115200005.
11Keenan Allen7112871100013.
11Mike Williams74527600007.
13Zay Jones42321400001.
13Keelan Doss33111100001.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7100)

11@ PHI66105.053000010.115.112.414.9
12vs DAL68128.09300009.317.313.317.3
13@ HOU80126.010611-7015.921.918.924.9
14PROJ-Dodds6.4770.51301117.414.2 (H=26)17.4 (H=39)
14PROJ-Tremblay6.5770.51301117.514.2 (H=26)17.5 (H=40)
14PROJ-Bloom7.0830.500011.318.314.8 (H=28)18.3 (H=43)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3500)

11@ PHI1921.0700000.
12vs DAL5494.07400007.411.49.411.4
13@ HOU6173.04600004.
14PROJ-Dodds2.8380.200057.86.4 (H=9)7.8 (H=20)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.3450.30006.39.68.0 (H=14)9.6 (H=28)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0380.10004.47.45.9 (H=8)7.4 (H=18)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4400)

11@ PHI3453.03310009.312.310.812.3
12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13@ HOU6262.01500001.
14PROJ-Dodds2.2310.30004.97.16.0 (H=8)7.1 (H=13)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=5)5.8 (H=9)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=20)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5000)

11@ PHI4142.0401801.
12vs DAL000.000000000.00.0
13@ HOU1953.01400001.
14PROJ-Dodds3.1290.21304.47.56.0 (H=7)7.5 (H=13)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.11302.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0290.20004.18.16.1 (H=7)8.1 (H=14)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ PHI3243.01800001.
12vs DAL5741.0101000787.58.0
13@ HOU2210.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.2160.10002.23.42.8 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.6210.10002.74.33.5 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.3)28 (+3.4)28 (+2.5)28 (+3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.5)32 (+8.7)32 (+7.7)32 (+10.2)
10Anthony Firkser14433619.612.611.112.6
11Hunter Henry61966906.912.911.914.9
13Darren Waller5597100010.017.013.520.0

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ PHI5943.05205.
12vs DAL4910.000000.00.0
13@ HOU4711.02302.
14PROJ-Dodds1.5180. (H=2)3.9 (H=7)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.1120. (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0230. (H=5)5.5 (H=12)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ PHI2122.0300.
12vs DAL3411.0500.
13@ HOU5321.02402.
14PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-0.6)8T (-0.6)6T (-0.9) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.4)9 (-1.4)9 (-1.9) (+0.0)
10Ryan Succop0034333.03.0
11Mike Badgley34009910.010.0
13Daniel Carlson1201333.03.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.3)5T (-2.3)3 (-3.6)3 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.7)14T (-0.7)7 (-3.2)7 (-3.2)
10Tennessee Titans3253020101161611.011.0
11Los Angeles Chargers2431011000333.03.0
13Oakland Raiders4025910000110.00.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ PHI10.00255501007711.011.0
12vs DAL9.0032101000228.08.0
13@ HOU28.0027630000332.02.0
14PROJ-Dodds21.803852.30.90.600. (H=18)8.4 (H=26)
14PROJ-Tremblay22.753802.50.90.600. (H=18)8.4 (H=26)