Matchup Analysis: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Cowboys 23, Bears 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense25.8 (+3.4) (8)128 (+16) (8)305 (+70) (1)
Bears Defense17.3 (-5.1) (4)98 (-13) (7)222 (-12) (9)

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense17.7 (-4.8) (27)79 (-31) (28)202 (-32) (28)
Cowboys Defense19.7 (-2.8) (8)106 (-4) (16)215 (-19) (8)

Cowboys Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Cowboys rushing attack on the year has been disappointing, to say the least, particularly over the last four games as the Cowboys have averaged just 62 yards rushing per game from Elliott. While Elliott is still top-10 in attempts, yards, and touchdowns on the year, he has not been the dominant running back that we have gotten used to or had seen earlier this season where he was a consistent threat to run for over 100-yards. A big part of the recent struggles has been the interior of the offensive line as Travis Frederick and Xavier Suía-Filo have both struggled over the last few weeks. Suía-Filo has filled in for Connor Williams and has been an issue so far in his brief time starting. The bigger problem is Travis Frederick who just does not seem to be the same dominant threat that we saw before missing last season with an illness. This is still a good rushing offense, it is just not the elite offense that we had become accustomed to over the last few seasons. There is good news for Ezekiel Elliott this week as Tony Pollard will likely miss this week with an ankle injury.

The Bears run defense is still a very good unit as evidenced by allowing just 3.7 yards-per-carry on the season, but it is no longer the defense that it was in 2018 and even in early 2019 where it was almost impossible to run against this team. The reason for this is the injury to Akiem Hicks who was their space-eater that did not allow teams to put such an emphasis on stopping Khalil Mack who has mostly been neutralized this season with double teams. Teams are electing to try to beat this team on the ground as they have faced the 9th most rushing attempts on the year. This is a defense that struggles with downhill type runners as it is a defense that has great defensive ends in Mack and Leonard Floyd as well as great speed on the entire defense. Where they have struggled is with Roquan Smith and his ability to read the play and make the stop on plays between the tackles. This is evidenced by Latavius Murray torching this defense for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns, Josh Jacobs rushing for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns, Bo Scarbrough last week rushing for 83 yards, and Jordan Howard ran for 82 yards and a touchdown. When they faced speed running backs they shut down Melvin Gordon, Dalvin Cook, and Saquon Barkley holding them to an average of 42 yards in their three contests.

Cowboys Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bears defense.

Dak Prescott and this passing offense continue to put up big numbers. Dak and the offense struggled mightily against Buffalo as they scored just 15 points, but were able to throw for 355 yards which has been the case in most of Dallasí losses as they continue to throw the ball and move the ball throughout the entire game. Even if you were to strip out the losses and garbage time production, this is still an offense that averages over 300 yards passing per game in their wins. This is an offense that does a great job spreading the ball around to different receivers even when Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup has a bad day it seems that Randall Cobb, Tony Pollard, or Jason Witten chip in enough that the offense is productive and continues to move the ball. This is one of the best passing offenses in football particularly between the 20 yard-lines as if there is one drawback it is that they donít finish enough drives for all of the yardage that they gain.

The Bears passing defense is a good one, but not elite like they were in 2018 as the departures of Bryce Callahan and Adrian Amos have hurt this defense considerably. The Bears lost a key player this week in Prince Amukamara with a hamstring injury as he is doubtful. The Bears also lost their backup corner in Sherrick McManis who was placed on IR leaving Kevin Toliver as the second cornerback for the Bears this week. Toliver has seen just three snaps this year, and while he did play sparingly last year, he struggled and will likely be a liability this week against both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. With Amukamara or even McManis, this likely would have been a tough matchup, instead, it is upgraded to a neutral matchup with the liability in Toliver.

Bears Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

David Montgomery is coming off of one of his best days as an NFL running back after a disappointing rookie season in Chicago as he was able to rush for 75 yards on 16 carries and was able to consistently find the hole and gain positive yards on nearly every run. Finding space to run through has been a consistent issue for the Bears offensive line that has struggled after losing its leader in Kyle Long for the year as Rashaad Coward has struggled to fill in at right guard, and Cody Whitehair has struggled at Center as more emphasis has been placed on him without his Pro Bowl leader next to him. The Bears will also be without right tackle Bobbie Massie who suffered an ankle injury that will force veteran Cornelius Lucas into the starting role in Chicago.

The Cowboys run defense has been a unit that has been the definition of league average. On the year, they have allowed 4.1 yards-per-carry which is the 13th best in the NFL, and the 14th most fantasy points to running backs on the season. There is some cause for concern as the Cowboys will be without second-year linebacker Leighton Vander Esch who while is not having the incredible season like he did last year, is still a speed linebacker who can contain the edge. With no Vander Esch, this will put an increased emphasis on Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee as the team will likely go with more of a Nickel defense as Vander Eschís backup Joe Thomas typically only plays 15-20 snaps per game. This is a situation in which while Vander Esch is a significant loss if he is out for some time, with the Bears having an in-between the tackle running scheme will not play as significant of a role as it otherwise could have with a speed off-tackle running back. The Bears might try to take advantage of the Cowboys defense with Tarik Cohen off the edge but have shown that they will only give the small running back a few carries per game.

Bears Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

Mitchell Trubisky over the last two weeks has looked like the quarterback we thought he would be in early 2018. While it is too early to get too excited as the last two matchups he has had could not have been much easier in the Giants and Lions, there is some optimism that some of his early-season struggles could have been related to his left shoulder injury he suffered early in the season. Trubisky does his best work throwing on the run as his accuracy while standing in the pocket often suffers especially on deep passes, but on the run, he seems to throw with more confidence. At the receiving position, it appears the Bears will once again be without Taylor Gabriel who is suffering from a concussion which will force Anthony Miller and Javon Wims to step up to replace Gabriel as consistent options alongside Allen Robinson. Miller has stepped up over the last three weeks as he has seen an average of 11 targets per game in those contests and torched the Lions with 140 yards last week.

The Cowboys pass defense is one that has been an above-average unit this season. On the year, they have held opponents to just 233 yards per game which is the sixth-fewest in the NFL, and have held opponents to 6.9 yards-per-attempt. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards which were to Eli Manning and Sam Darnold both in games that Byron Jones did not play the entire game. This is a defense that is solid across the board as it is led by second-team All-Pro Byron Jones who is having another great year. If there is a weakness for the Cowboys it will be that the team is without safety Jeff Heath as Darian Thompson will once again fill in. Thompson has struggled in his four games as a starter, but fortunately for the Cowboys, the Bears donít have a tight end to take advantage of the matchup. This will be a stiff test for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.3)7 (-3.1)7 (-3.4)7 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.7)6 (-3.5)7 (-3.5)5 (-4.1)
10Jeff Driskel83274626911537020.821.818.619.1
11Jared Goff551118173013308.
12Daniel Jones60213615020227018.218.214.715.7
13David Blough7622382802111021.121.118.318.3

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $6100)

11@ DET742946444306180363631.634.6
12@ NE6419332120114010107.97.9
13vs BUF78324935521425027.327.323.727.7
14PROJ-Dodds24362711.50.83170.221.721.721.7 (H=50)21.7 (H=67)
14PROJ-Tremblay24372801.51.13150.221.621.621.6 (H=50)21.6 (H=67)
14PROJ-Bloom23322921.70.73170.223.623.623.6 (H=58)23.6 (H=78)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.3)19 (+0.6)19 (+0.2)19 (+0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.8)10 (-4.2)11 (-4.4)9 (-5.1)
10J.D. McKissic5810360761905.511.58.511.5
10Ty Johnson12516011301.
11Todd Gurley41259713336019.322.318.821.3
11Malcolm Brown11515100007.
12Saquon Barkley581759032106.
12Wayne Gallman211000000.
13Bo Scarbrough362183000008.
13Ty Johnson253120331702.

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $7900)

11@ DET661645132.028119.321.318.320.3
12@ NE562186044.040012.616.614.616.6
13vs BUF6912710107.066013.720.717.220.7
14PROJ-Dodds21920.53.2250.115.318.516.9 (H=32)18.5 (H=39)
14PROJ-Tremblay21830.52.7200.113.916.615.3 (H=27)16.6 (H=32)
14PROJ-Bloom231050.84.0330.219.823.821.8 (H=50)23.8 (H=61)

Tony Pollard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4300)

11@ DET13212044.044111.615.615.617.6
12@ NE12419043.0902.
13vs BUF1137010.0000.
14PROJ-Dodds3130.11.41002.94.33.7 (H=4)4.4 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay3120.11.612034.63.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-4.5)6 (-5.2)5 (-4.9)7 (-5.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17T (+0.6)15 (-0.5)15 (+0.0)15 (-0.9)
10Kenny Golladay789357100011.714.713.214.7
10Marvin Jones76657700007.712.710.212.7
11Cooper Kupp54335300005.
11Josh Reynolds52635501-505.
12Golden Tate50733310009.312.310.812.3
12Darius Slayton51746700006.710.78.710.7
13Kenny Golladay7354158100021.825.823.828.8
13Marvin Jones736340100010.013.011.513.0

Amari Cooper (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6200)

11@ DET4183.03800003.
12@ NE5220.000000000.00.0
13vs BUF64118.08500008.516.512.516.5
14PROJ-Dodds5.0700.40009.414.411.9 (H=18)14.4 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.0710.40009.514.512.0 (H=19)14.5 (H=33)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0750.500010.515.513.0 (H=22)15.5 (H=37)

Michael Gallup (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5500)

11@ DET61139.0148000014.823.819.326.8
12@ NE6364.05500005.
13vs BUF6963.06300006.
14PROJ-Dodds4.4630.30008.112.510.3 (H=17)12.5 (H=28)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.4650.30008.312.710.5 (H=18)12.7 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0640.40008.812.810.8 (H=18)12.8 (H=30)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4900)

11@ DET4674.0115100017.521.519.524.5
12@ NE2974.08600008.612.610.612.6
13vs BUF6733.05300005.
14PROJ-Dodds3.7510.30006.910.68.8 (H=15)10.6 (H=24)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.7520.30107.110.89.0 (H=16)10.8 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0620.300081210.0 (H=19)12.0 (H=30)

Tavon Austin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

11@ DET3010.000000000.00.0
12@ NE1310.000000000.00.0
13vs BUF2052.02200002.
14PROJ-Dodds0.8900000.91.71.4 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.880.10201.62.42.1 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
14PROJ-Bloom1.01100001.12.11.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.4)25 (+1.5)7T (+0.9)26 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.7)11 (-3.0)7 (-2.8)10 (-3.1)
10T.J. Hockenson48634704.
11Gerald Everett14112002.
12Kaden Smith59651717.712.710.212.7
13T.J. Hockenson431161801.

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ DET6475.03303.
12@ NE5241.0500.
13vs BUF5686.042110.
14PROJ-Dodds3.5300. (H=9)8.3 (H=19)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.7320.358.76.9 (H=9)8.7 (H=21)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0250. (H=5)6.7 (H=13)

Blake Jarwin (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ DET2322.03803.
12@ NE2943.01701.
13vs BUF2632.0900.
14PROJ-Dodds1.7190. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.12.443.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=4)4.8 (H=10)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-1.6)4 (-1.6)4 (-2.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.9)10 (-0.9)10T (-1.2) (+0.0)
10Matt Prater2211779.09.0
11Greg Zuerlein1122555.05.0
12Aldrick Rosas0222222.02.0
13Matt Prater2222888.08.0

Brett Maher (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ DET2233999.09.0
12@ NE34009910.010.0
13vs BUF0211111.01.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-1.9)7 (-1.9)11T (-0.7)11T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.6)10 (-2.6)12 (-1.6)12 (-1.6)
10Detroit Lions2022650000556.06.0
11Los Angeles Rams726731000559.09.0
12New York Giants1933522000667.07.0
13Detroit Lions2441911000333.03.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2400)

11@ DET27.0031230000333.03.0
12@ NE13.0028220000226.06.0
13vs BUF26.0035640000444.04.0
14PROJ-Dodds19.203102.60.90.800.510.510.510.5 (H=30)10.5 (H=48)
14PROJ-Tremblay19.753242.310.800.510.110.110.1 (H=28)10.1 (H=45)

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.2)8 (-2.3)10 (-2.5)10 (-2.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.3)19 (+1.3)26 (+2.5)19 (+1.4)
10Kirk Cousins7623322202015019.519.519.319.3
11Jeff Driskel65152620920851129.629.627.527.5
12Tom Brady701737190102-3013.213.211.311.3
13Josh Allen671924231101043125.925.923.523.5

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5400)

11@ LAR6924431901114012.912.911.011.0
12vs NYG76254127812718123.723.720.920.9
13@ DET6529383383144028.328.324.927.9
14PROJ-Dodds22352291.40.93100.117.717.717.7 (H=39)17.7 (H=53)
14PROJ-Tremblay23362381.31380.117.517.517.5 (H=38)17.5 (H=52)
14PROJ-Bloom20332071.71.14100.218.318.318.3 (H=42)18.3 (H=56)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (-0.2)18 (+0.5)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.4)22 (+0.7)23 (+1.2)18 (+0.1)
10Dalvin Cook57269717786024.331.327.831.3
10Alexander Mattison14852011205.
11Bo Scarbrough3214551000011.511.511.511.5
11J.D. McKissic153130434005.
12Sony Michel362085000008.
12Rex Burkhead15230521401.
13Devin Singletary52146304338116.119.117.619.1
13Frank Gore159110111402.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5100)

11@ LAR351431031.0190565.56.0
12vs NYG471322032.0903.
13@ DET401675022.012114.716.715.716.7
14PROJ-Dodds16580.42.1150.110.312.411.4 (H=21)12.4 (H=30)
14PROJ-Tremblay14530.42.2160.19.912.111.0 (H=19)12.1 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom16620.42.0110.110.312.311.3 (H=20)12.3 (H=30)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4600)

11@ LAR45939065.035113.418.415.918.4
12vs NYG42625097.02905.412.48.912.4
13@ DET3639044.02603.
14PROJ-Dodds6220.14.8310. (H=17)12.0 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay6230.15.2350.27.612.810.3 (H=19)12.9 (H=36)
14PROJ-Bloom4130.15.0320.47.512.510.1 (H=19)12.6 (H=35)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.7)7 (-5.1)7 (-4.3)6 (-5.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.2)17 (+0.0)16 (+0.5)16 (-0.4)
10Stefon Diggs60634900004.
10Olabisi Johnson54422500002.
11Marvin Jones57544321-4015.919.917.919.9
11Danny Amendola36544700004.
12Julian Edelman681289300009.317.313.317.3
12Jakobi Meyers54947400007.411.49.411.4
13Cole Beasley5976110100017.
13John Brown61432600008.

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6500)

11@ LAR7564.01500001.
12vs NYG69106.0131100019.
13@ DET60128.086100014.622.618.622.6
14PROJ-Dodds5.5680.40009.214.712.0 (H=19)14.7 (H=32)
14PROJ-Tremblay6.3780.500010.817.114.0 (H=25)17.1 (H=42)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0670.50009.714.712.2 (H=19)14.7 (H=32)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4500)

11@ LAR65116.05400005.411.48.411.4
12vs NYG4296.07700007.713.710.713.7
13@ DET56139.01400000142318.526.0
14PROJ-Dodds4.4550.30007.311.79.5 (H=15)11.7 (H=31)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.4580.30007.6129.8 (H=16)12.0 (H=32)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0600.40008.413.410.9 (H=19)13.4 (H=39)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ LAR1521.01100001.
12vs NYG3420.000000000.00.0
13@ DET5865.05600005.610.68.110.6
14PROJ-Dodds2.0260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.5330.20004.575.8 (H=9)7.0 (H=19)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0250.20003.75.74.7 (H=6)5.7 (H=13)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ LAR69147.05700005.712.79.212.7
12vs NYG4231.01900001.
13@ DET000.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.2)23 (+0.8)9T (+0.5)24 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.6)8 (-3.9)9 (-2.7)8 (-3.5)
10Kyle Rudolph595414213.417.417.419.4
11T.J. Hockenson4821600.
12Matt LaCosse3411500.
13Dawson Knox52431701.

Jesper Horsted (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

12vs NYG411.0400.
13@ DET711.01817.
14PROJ-Dodds1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.4140.123.42.7 (H=2)3.4 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Ben Braunecker (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2700)

11@ LAR5031.0800.
12vs NYG5442.0900.
13@ DET000.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+0.4)16T (+0.4)15T (+0.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.1)16 (+0.1)16T (+0.0) (+0.0)
10Dan Bailey2222888.08.0
11Matt Prater0033333.03.0
12Nick Folk2411779.09.0
13Steve Hauschka2323889.09.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ LAR0211111.01.0
12vs NYG2212777.07.0
13@ DET1133666.06.0

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.8)7T (-2.8)2 (-3.7)2 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-3.3)7T (-3.3)10T (-2.6)10T (-2.6)
10Minnesota Vikings2444311000333.03.0
11Detroit Lions355091010033-1.0-1.0
12New England Patriots932101000228.08.0
13Buffalo Bills15426411008811.011.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2100)

11@ LAR17.0028301100445.05.0
12vs NYG14.0024310100334.04.0
13@ DET20.0036421000445.05.0
14PROJ-Dodds21.703842.310.600. (H=18)8.6 (H=39)
14PROJ-Tremblay22.753932.41.10.600. (H=19)8.7 (H=40)