Matchup Analysis: Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Colts 23, Buccaneers 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Indianapolis Colts Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Colts Offense21.8 (-0.7) (17)139 (+27) (4)205 (-30) (26)
Buccaneers Defense28.8 (+6.4) (30)76 (-34) (2)282 (+46) (31)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense28.3 (+5.9) (4)96 (-14) (22)284 (+49) (4)
Colts Defense21.4 (-1.0) (15)102 (-9) (9)227 (-7) (12)

Colts Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Up until last week, the Marlon Mack-less Colts backfield seemed clear enough with Jonathan Williams leading the way after back-to-back 100+ yard outings. Things were certainly muddled last week though, as it was Jordan Wilkins who led the way with 11 carries, followed by Williams with eight and Nyhiem Hines with four. Wilkins looked like the better back as he saw a near-majority of the snaps in his first action since a Week 10 ankle injury. With Wilkins now back to full health, this backfield will remain a committee until the return of Marlon Mack, which could be as soon as this week pending his practice participation. Keep an eye on his status, as a return from Mack would immediately eliminate any upside coming from Wilkins or Williams. Regardless of who is running for the Colts, they will remain behind one of the top offensive lines in football that has been playing very well and remains healthy coming into the final stretch of this season.

Tampa Bay continued to prove last week why they may have the best rushing defense in football as they limited Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars to just 49 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns, with Fournette averaging a meager 2.7 yards per attempt. Opposing running backs are averaging a league-low 60 rushing yards per game and just 3.1 rushing yards per attempt on the season. Since their Week 7 bye, Tampa Bay is holding running backs to the fewest fantasy points per game and has given up just one rushing touchdown to the position. With massive interior defenders like William Gholston and Vita Vea, it is no wonder teams have struggled to run effectively on this team. Linebacker Lavonte David has also been a big part of their success as he has been a consistent leader in tackles and playmaker against the run. The Colts offensive line is indeed an elite unit, but even they should have issues with this equally elite run defense.

Colts Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Jacoby Brissett has had a tough time in charge of an injury-plagued Colts passing offense. While he did pass for over 300 yards last week, Brissett made some poor decisions with a couple of interceptions and has not passed for just two touchdowns in his past five games. This receiving group has been decimated from injuries, from the season-ending injuries to both Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers to the continued sidelining of T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell. Neither Hilton nor Campbell are likely to return this week, but do keep an eye on practice reports as having either back (especially Hilton) would lift the tide in this otherwise mediocre passing offense. This leaves Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle as the top targets, both of whom were quite productive last week but have proven to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis.

Tampa Bay has consistently struggled against the pass this season, giving up the second-most passing yards per game (281.1) and passing touchdowns (27) on the year as they have faced more passing attempts per game (41.8) than any other defense. Whether looking at the entire season or the last five games, this defense has also given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The past two weeks, however, have been better for the Buccaneers as this defense has forced three interceptions while allowing only one touchdown per game and even limiting the Jaguars to just 240 passing yards last week. A strong pass rush with 33 sacks has helped and will continue to benefit this defense, but not so much this week as the Colts have one of the better offensive lines in football. The cornerbacks for Tampa Bay have very little name recognition, but they have actually played up to par in direct coverage. It has been the safeties for this defense that have set them apart, especially considering they have allowed 10 passing plays of 40 or more yards. Therin lies what could be an issue for the Colts this week, as Jacoby Brissett has not been particularly adept at throwing deep this season while he may lack any viable deep threats if T.Y. Hilton is not back on the field. The Colts have the edge, but not as much as one might think against what has been an exploitable passing defense.

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Colts defense.

Just when the Tampa Bay backfield was thought to have been settling out with Ronald Jones at the helm, they throw another curveball by giving Peyton Barber 17 carries to just six for Jones in last week’s blowout victory. The split between Jones and Barber has been rather unpredictable all season long as there have been games in which one out-carries the other by double-digits on multiple occasions. Neither running back has been particularly productive though, and this Tampa Bay rushing offense ranks 22nd in the league with 96.2 rushing yards per game and a below-average 3.7 yards per attempt. Barber has exceeded 4.0 yards per carry just one time this season, while Jones has done it only three times--including just one game of more than 3.7 yards per rush attempt in his last nine outings. While predicting who will have the hot hand in a given week remains a challenge, the Tampa Bay offensive line has been and will continue to be a concern that ultimately limits the upside of this rushing offense.

The Colts rushing defense had their worst game of the season against the run last week as Derrick Henry put up 149 yards and a touchdown. This was the first time any running back had exceeded 90 rushing yards against a Colts defense that has played excellently to have held running backs to just the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game on the season. Despite the stats from last week, this defense still played relatively well and has the personnel to shut down opposing backfields. Linebacker Darius Leonard, in particular, had a great game last week and has been a game-changer for this defense since returning from injury. This defensive line does have a lack of depth, but their starters have been solid and should have the edge over Tampa Bay’s mediocre offensive line. Look for the Colts defense to bounce back in this one as the Buccaneers running backs are in for a challenge.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Colts defense.

The Buccaneers passing offense has been a risk-reward group all season due to the gun-slinger play from quarterback Jameis Winston. Last week marked the first time Winston has failed to throw a touchdown in a game, but it also marked the fourth time he has thrown no interceptions--and the first time in his past four games as he had thrown eight interceptions in the previous three outings alone. It was a clear example of when doing less was more to help Tampa Bay win the game, but it certainly did not help his elite wide receivers as neither Chris Godwin nor Mike Evans managed to exceed 55 yards for the first time since Week 1. Evans leads the team in targets this season and did have some top-notch opportunities last week. However, both Evans and Godwin have seemingly traded weeks as the target and yardage leaders for this offense and will continue to serve as the top options for this Tampa Bay passing offense.

The Colts passing defense has been solid overall, but highly variable for most of the season. While they rank above average as a defense in passing yards allowed per game (12th fewest with 226.9), they have given up over 295 passing yards in half of their games and fewer than 195 passing yards in the other half. In most cases, those good games against the pass came against pedestrian passing offenses (Titans x2, Broncos, Dolphins). This week’s challenge is far from a pedestrian passing offense as the Buccaneers have piled on the yards against opposing secondaries. Mike Evans moves all over the field, but he should have no problem with either outside cornerback the Colts line up to cover him. Godwin should see a slightly more difficult matchup with Kenny Moore out of the slot, but Godwin still has the edge as he is very tough to cover. Turnovers have been a strong point for this defense though, as the Colts have forced at least one interception in four of their last five games--however, they will still need to keep these elite Tampa Bay receivers in check to have a chance at success in this one.

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.7)30 (+4.8)29 (+4.2)31 (+5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.8)23 (+2.0)16 (+0.9)21 (+1.5)
10Kyler Murray70274432431338031.031.027.830.8
11Drew Brees6728352283030023.423.421.121.1
12Matt Ryan7623462710118013.413.48.69.6
13Gardner Minshew4516271471128011.211.211.711.7

Jacoby Brissett (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $6100)

11vs JAX66152414811212117.617.616.116.1
12@ HOU67162512900420114.514.513.213.2
13vs TEN722540319121-1017.917.914.717.7
14PROJ-Dodds22352391.50.84100.219.419.419.4 (H=45)19.4 (H=55)
14PROJ-Tremblay23362451.514100.219.519.519.5 (H=46)19.5 (H=56)
14PROJ-Bloom21312361.70.5270.2202020.0 (H=48)20.0 (H=58)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.6)3 (-6.3)2 (-6.8)3 (-6.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.1)11 (-3.8)6 (-5.8)11 (-4.6)
10Kenyan Drake451035076604.
10David Johnson3052011801.02.0-0.51.0
11Alvin Kamara4313750101047012.
11Latavius Murray291027032503.
12Qadree Ollison23820111708.
12Brian Hill519140431302.
13Leonard Fournette65143801195309.118.113.618.1
13Devine Ozigbo000000000.

Marlon Mack (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6000)

11vs JAX2114109100.00016.916.916.919.9
12@ HOU000000.000000.00.0
13vs TEN000000.000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds12470.41.8120.18.910.79.8 (H=14)10.7 (H=20)
14PROJ-Tremblay6220.10.8503.34.13.7 (H=2)4.1 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom17600.52.0130.110.912.911.9 (H=19)12.9 (H=27)

Jordan Wilkins (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

11vs JAX000000.000000.00.0
12@ HOU100000.000000.00.0
13vs TEN321147032.0905.
14PROJ-Dodds8370.21.5100.16.587.3 (H=11)8.0 (H=19)
14PROJ-Tremblay9350.22.3160. (H=13)9.2 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom5190.10.0002.52.52.5 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)

Jonathan Williams (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4700)

11vs JAX3113116011.031014.715.715.218.7
12@ HOU4526104133.017018.121.119.624.1
13vs TEN16814011.01102.
14PROJ-Dodds8320.21.2705.16.35.7 (H=6)6.3 (H=10)
14PROJ-Tremblay6250.20.7504.24.94.6 (H=4)4.9 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Nyheim Hines (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4300)

11vs JAX24311143.02409.512.511.012.5
12@ HOU22951032.01006.
13vs TEN31422122.0180101211.012.0
14PROJ-Dodds5210.12.62004.77.36.1 (H=8)7.4 (H=14)
14PROJ-Tremblay3120.11.51102.94.43.7 (H=3)4.5 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom4190.22.0140. (H=8)7.2 (H=14)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+8.7)32 (+11.9)32 (+10.9)32 (+13.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+11.0)32 (+15.1)32 (+13.6)32 (+16.0)
10Christian Kirk67106138300031.837.834.840.8
10Andy Isabella26337800007.810.89.310.8
11Michael Thomas57118114100017.425.421.428.4
11Ted Ginn38421410007.
12Calvin Ridley74146851115016.
12Russell Gage641087600007.615.611.615.6
13Dede Westbrook578560100012.017.016.519.0
13Chris Conley55545700005.

Zach Pascal (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5500)

11vs JAX6662.01700001.
12@ HOU5910.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN72107.0109000010.917.914.420.9
14PROJ-Dodds4.5620.40008.613.110.9 (H=20)13.1 (H=31)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.8690.40009.314.111.7 (H=23)14.1 (H=35)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0610.40008.513.511.0 (H=20)13.5 (H=32)

Marcus Johnson (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3600)

11vs JAX6344.03810009.813.811.813.8
12@ HOU4210.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN6764.05500005.
14PROJ-Dodds2.8370.20004.97.76.3 (H=9)7.7 (H=19)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.8370.20004.97.76.3 (H=9)7.7 (H=19)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0490.30006.710.78.7 (H=16)10.7 (H=33)

Parris Campbell (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

11vs JAX000.000000000.00.0
12@ HOU000.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN000.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds1.9220.20003.45.34.4 (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.5290.20204.36.85.6 (H=8)6.8 (H=17)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0270.21804.76.75.7 (H=8)6.7 (H=16)

Ashton Dulin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs JAX100.000000000.00.0
12@ HOU000.000000000.00.0
13vs TEN4111.01300001.
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+2.8)29 (+3.5)30 (+3.2)29 (+3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.0)3 (-5.8)4 (-4.4)3 (-5.9)
10Maxx Williams31211501.
11Jared Cook49223319.311.310.311.3
12Jaeden Graham57215305.
13Nick OLeary4741600.

Jack Doyle (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4600)

11vs JAX4400.000000.00.0
12@ HOU4643.02802.
13vs TEN68116.073113.319.316.319.3
14PROJ-Dodds5.1540.47.812.910.4 (H=18)12.9 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.3540.47.813.110.5 (H=18)13.1 (H=37)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0580.58.813.811.3 (H=21)13.8 (H=40)

Ross Travis (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2600)

13vs TEN1232.03103.
14PROJ-Dodds1.3140. (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.5120. (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0140.1232.53.0 (H=5)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.4)25T (+2.4)31 (+3.2) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.6)25 (+1.6)26 (+2.3) (+0.0)
10Zane Gonzalez22339911.011.0
11Wil Lutz2244101011.011.0
12Younghoe Koo3311101011.011.0
13Josh Lambo1100335.05.0

Chase McLaughlin (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Adam Vinatieri (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs JAX1144777.07.0
12@ HOU1122555.05.0
13vs TEN1422555.05.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.2)31 (+3.2)27T (+2.5)27T (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+1.7)21T (+1.7)18 (+0.9)18 (+0.9)
10Arizona Cardinals304574210010109.09.0
11New Orleans Saints1733424001161617.017.0
12Atlanta Falcons3544602000443.03.0
13Jacksonville Jaguars2831540100666.06.0

Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2400)

11vs JAX13.0030821000448.08.0
12@ HOU20.0039611000334.04.0
13vs TEN31.002926020010109.09.0
14PROJ-Dodds24.903922.71.40.600. (H=20)8.6 (H=34)
14PROJ-Tremblay25.254052.51.40.600. (H=19)8.4 (H=33)

Colts vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.4)12 (-1.5)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.2)14 (-1.2)13 (-1.3)11 (-2.1)
10Ryan Fitzpatrick63213316901423115.815.814.114.1
11Nick Foles6333472962100021.821.818.818.8
12Deshaun Watson59193029821310022.922.919.919.9
13Ryan Tannehill6017221822045017.617.613.814.8

Jameis Winston (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6400)

11vs NO683051313242230222218.821.8
12@ ATL66182831332838029.529.526.329.3
13@ JAX76213326800620015.415.410.711.7
14PROJ-Dodds23372811.81.34190.122.422.422.4 (H=56)22.4 (H=68)
14PROJ-Tremblay23382941.71.44190.122.622.622.6 (H=57)22.6 (H=69)
14PROJ-Bloom18292331.71.13200.1202020.0 (H=46)20.0 (H=56)

Colts vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.6)7 (-3.2)6 (-3.6)6 (-3.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-6.0)3 (-6.2)2 (-6.4)5 (-6.3)
10Kalen Ballage542043044204.
10Patrick Laird8240221501.
11Leonard Fournette458230773405.712.79.212.7
11Ryquell Armstead14160221301.
12Carlos Hyde291667000006.
12Duke Johnson30522011803.
13Derrick Henry452614913317022.625.622.127.6
13Dion Lewis1100011900.

Ronald Jones (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4400)

11vs NO21413042.0101.
12@ ATL331251133.016012.715.714.215.7
13@ JAX2168000.0000.
14PROJ-Dodds10400.32.0170. (H=15)10.1 (H=24)
14PROJ-Tremblay9390.32.4210.18.410.89.6 (H=17)10.8 (H=28)
14PROJ-Bloom9310. (H=8)6.7 (H=12)

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4200)

11vs NO1200022.01117.
12@ ATL151132010.0003.
13@ JAX301744200.00016.416.418.418.4
14PROJ-Dodds10390.30.9606.37.26.8 (H=9)7.2 (H=14)
14PROJ-Tremblay11430.40.6507.27.87.5 (H=11)7.8 (H=16)
14PROJ-Bloom14480. (H=17)9.9 (H=25)

Dare Ogunbowale (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

11vs NO2920043.0100142.54.0
12@ ATL14112010.0001.
13@ JAX2310022.01201.
14PROJ-Dodds2601.914023.93.0 (H=2)3.9 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay1501.61201.73.32.5 (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom0002.01301.33.32.3 (H=1)3.3 (H=5)

Colts vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.0)19 (+0.8)19 (+1.0)20 (+1.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+5.5)26 (+7.4)25 (+6.4)25 (+7.7)
10DeVante Parker631056900006.911.99.411.9
10Allen Hurns59423200003.
11D.J. Chark59158104200022.430.426.433.4
11Chris Conley60865800005.811.88.811.8
12DeAndre Hopkins598694200021.427.424.427.4
12Will Fuller53117140000014.021.017.524.0
13Kalif Raymond171140100010.011.010.511.0
13Adam Humphries23211310007.

Chris Godwin (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $7300)

11vs NO6863.047100010.713.712.213.7
12@ ATL5887.0184200030.437.433.940.4
13@ JAX7064.0500000597.09.0
14PROJ-Dodds5.6780.600011.41714.2 (H=25)17.0 (H=37)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.1740.501010.515.613.0 (H=21)15.6 (H=31)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=20)15.1 (H=30)

Mike Evans (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7200)

11vs NO6584.06900006.910.98.910.9
12@ ATL6184.0500000597.09.0
13@ JAX63114.05300005.
14PROJ-Dodds5.4830.500011.316.714.0 (H=25)16.7 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.6860.500011.617.214.4 (H=26)17.2 (H=38)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0740.6000111513.0 (H=22)15.0 (H=30)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3700)

11vs NO3631.0200000232.53.0
12@ ATL2611.04400004.
13@ JAX4465.08700008.713.711.213.7
14PROJ-Dodds2.2290.20004.16.35.2 (H=6)6.3 (H=13)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.2310.20004.36.55.4 (H=6)6.5 (H=13)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0300.10003.65.64.6 (H=5)5.6 (H=10)

Scott Miller (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs NO3564.07100007.
12@ ATL1911.0801-
13@ JAX000.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.2160.10102.33.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Colts vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.6)19 (-0.1)15 (-0.5)18 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-4.4)4 (-5.5)2 (-5.4)4 (-5.9)
10Mike Gesicki40632802.
11Ben Koyack1611900.
12Jordan Akins28432602.
13Anthony Firkser19432202.

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3200)

11vs NO1710.000000.00.0
12@ ATL5121.0100121.52.0
13@ JAX6365.06106.111.18.611.1
14PROJ-Dodds2.5300. (H=7)6.7 (H=16)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.8330. (H=8)7.3 (H=19)
14PROJ-Bloom2.0250. (H=5)5.7 (H=12)

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2900)

11vs NO511410.07307.317.312.317.3
12@ ATL2110.000000.00.0
13@ JAX2811.0500.
14PROJ-Dodds1.7150. (H=2)3.8 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.4130. (H=2)3.3 (H=5)
14PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Colts vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.3)19 (+0.3)16T (+0.1) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (+0.1)16T (+0.1)16T (+0.0) (+0.0)
10Jason Sanders3311101013.013.0
11Josh Lambo0111111.01.0
12Kaimi Fairbairn2222888.08.0
13Ryan Succop1144777.07.0

Matt Gay (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs NO1122557.07.0
12@ ATL1125555.05.0
13@ JAX2222888.08.0

Colts vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.5)17T (+0.1)17T (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.3)13 (-1.3)21 (+1.9)21 (+1.9)
10Miami Dolphins12300130007711.011.0
11Jacksonville Jaguars3338931100776.06.0
12Houston Texans1729610000112.02.0
13Tennessee Titans17391321009920.020.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2300)

11vs NO34.0032810000110.00.0
12@ ATL22.0033761101222216.016.0
13@ JAX11.0024252201252523.023.0
14PROJ-Dodds22.503372. (H=21)8.6 (H=36)
14PROJ-Tremblay22.253522.410.700. (H=23)8.9 (H=38)