Matchup Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Bengals 16, Browns 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bengals Offense14.9 (-7.5) (31)78 (-33) (29)223 (-11) (19)
Browns Defense22.7 (+0.2) (18)124 (+12) (26)213 (-21) (6)

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense20.5 (-1.9) (21)123 (+11) (10)225 (-9) (17)
Bengals Defense24.8 (+2.4) (24)158 (+46) (32)248 (+12) (21)

Bengals Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

For as bad as the Bengals have been this season, they have remained consistent in giving volume to Joe Mixon. On the year, Mixon has seen an average of 15 carries per game, and over his last five games has seen an average of 20 carries per game. With the increased volume, Mixon has been slightly more productive and part of that has been changes on the offensive line as Billy Price replaced Michael Jordan, and Cordy Glenn returned. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Price suffered a back injury last week which will keep him out which will once again put rookie Michael Jordan at left guard who has been one of the worst offensive guards in football this season.

Over the last four games, the Browns have significantly improved their rush defense as they have not allowed a running back to rush for over 63 yards and are allowing just 62 yards per game with 3.6 yards-per-carry. This is a defense that before these last four games had allowed 113 yards per game and 4.9 yards-per-carry. So is this defense improving? The short answer is yes, but they have also faced a favorable recent schedule in Pittsburgh twice, Buffalo, and Miami. Even still, just to stop anyone after their early-season struggles is a step in the right direction as Sione Takitaki has been playing more as the Browns have started to move away from a nickel defense and more towards a traditional 4-3. While the Bills game was the one impressive performance, it remains to be seen how the Browns will perform moving forward and we likely won’t know after this week either as they are facing the Bengals who have the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this year.

Bengals Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Andy Dalton sparked some life into the Bengals last week as he came off the bench and led the team to their first win of the season. This was a typical Dalton game, nothing fancy, but efficient completing just 6.6 yards-per-attempt but was able to move the ball through Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate enough to beat the Jets. While there was some speculation that A.J. Green would return this week, he is once again declared out early in the week on Wednesday which has to bring fuel to whether he returns at all at this point as the receiver heads into his free agency year. The Bengals at this point of the year with Dalton back are more dangerous than the Ryan Finley led team simply because of having a veteran quarterback essentially having a last chance audition to land somewhere next season.

The Browns passing defense continues to be an above-average unit this season as they have held opponents to the seventh-fewest passing yards per game. The Browns got even better news this week as Damarious Randall who was suspended for the last game will return at free safety as he is one of the better coverage safeties in football. This is a defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passer and has allowed just four wide receivers to top 100 yards for the year. Overall it is a talented unit, but if there is a question mark surrounding it, it would be that the schedule has been favorable as they have faced just three offenses in the top half of the league in passing yards and they allowed over 250 yards to all three quarterbacks and two touchdowns to all three. The good news for the Browns is that the easy schedule against the pass continues as they face off against Andy Dalton and company.

Browns Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Browns rushing offense was all but shut down last week against the Steelers as they suffered a critical loss which essentially derails their playoff aspirations. Chubb struggled with just one carry longer than 10 yards last week which was a 12-year gain. The problem for the Browns has been consistency over the second half of the season as Chubb has 3.6 yards-per-carry or less in three of his last five contests after being below 4.0 yards-per-carry just once in his first seven games to start the year. The problem has been that teams are selling out to stop the run and the passing game is just not gaining enough traction to keep the defenses honest. Kareem Hunt has been a nice addition to this offense as he is showing what fresh legs can do this time of year as he is averaging 5.0 yards-per-carry over his first four games.

The Bengals run defense for the better part of two years has been one of the worst defenses in the league. On the year, the Bengals are allowing the most rushing yards per game at 157.6 and are allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt at 4.8. The issue for the Bengals is that while Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap are stars on the defensive line, their linebackers and safeties are some of the weakest in the NFL. Rookie Germaine Pratt and Nick Vigil have both struggled mightily at the linebacker position and Shawn Williams and Jessie Bates at safeties have provided no run support for most of the season. This is a team that has allowed nine players to rush for 75 yards or more on the year and what would have been much more if teams had not pulled their players due to game scripts. This should be a big day for Nick Chubb and the Browns offense.

Browns Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Bengals defense.

The Browns passing offense remains one of the most disappointing units of 2019, as Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham just have not figured out how to work together this year. Beckham was held to just 29 yards last week with just three receptions. Beckham is now questionable with a groin injury, and if he is unable to go, the Browns receiving group is incredibly thin. The Browns have an underlying issue which is that Baker Mayfield has been atrocious cycling through his reads this year, but at the same time the receiving options outside of Landry and Beckham have been horrendous at getting open putting a lot of pressure on Landry and Beckham. This makes the job of the quarterback incredibly tough when he defense knows they only need to take away your first and second read. The offensive line has not helped the situation as Mayfield was sacked five times last week and has now been sacked 32 times this year. The good news is that the Browns will get left tackle Greg Robinson back after he missed last week with a concussion, but he is just average at best and the main issue is the right side of the line with Chris Hubbard and Wyatt Teller at right guard.

The Bengals are a passing defense continue to be one of the worst in the NFL this season. While they have only allowed one 300-yard passer on the year, this is mostly due to the Bengals having faced the fewest passing attempts in the NFL this year as teams have not needed to throw in blowout situations. When teams do throw, they carve through this defense as they have allowed the most yards-per-attempt on the season at 8.5. The problem is that outside of Darqueze Dennard in the slot, the Bengals have some of the worst combinations of corners and safeties as William Jackson and B.W. Webb both are liabilities at corner. Another issue is the overall lack of pass rush generated by the Bengals as they have just 20 sacks on the year which is the third-fewest in the NFL this season which gives opposing quarterbacks more time to pick on the weak corners and safeties of the Bengals.

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.8)19 (+0.7)20 (+1.2)17 (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.3)15 (-0.3)15 (+0.2)15 (-0.8)
10Josh Allen69224126600628228.128.125.425.4
11Mason Rudolph74234422114215012.612.610.310.3
12Ryan Fitzpatrick63213921422545127.
13Devlin Hodges6214212121152013.813.811.711.7

Andy Dalton (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5200)

11@ OAK000000000000.00.0
12vs PIT000000000000.00.0
13vs NYJ662237243105-4015.815.813.313.3
14PROJ-Dodds20342351.21380.1171717.0 (H=38)17.0 (H=52)
14PROJ-Tremblay21352411.11380.116.916.916.9 (H=38)16.9 (H=51)
14PROJ-Bloom18312081.50.8250.116.716.716.7 (H=37)16.7 (H=50)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.5)12 (-1.0)12 (-0.8)11 (-1.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-5.8)2 (-6.5)4 (-6.0)2 (-7.1)
10Devin Singletary46842073805.
10Frank Gore23512011401.
11Jaylen Samuels2552606519110.515.513.015.5
11Trey Edmunds353110332703.
12Kalen Ballage247130111302.
12Patrick Laird23320010002.
13Benny Snell2316631114012.713.713.213.7
13Jaylen Samuels347320222205.

Joe Mixon (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5800)

11@ OAK371586131.017016.317.316.817.3
12vs PIT401879000.0007.
13vs NYJ521944144.0260131715.017.0
14PROJ-Dodds18730.32.2160.111.313.512.4 (H=23)13.5 (H=31)
14PROJ-Tremblay19750.31.9130. (H=22)13.1 (H=29)
14PROJ-Bloom18730.53.0200.213.516.515.0 (H=32)16.5 (H=44)

Giovani Bernard (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ OAK33330031.01604.
12vs PIT211-1033.0310364.56.0
13vs NYJ1314021.0801.
14PROJ-Dodds31001.91502.54.43.4 (H=3)4.4 (H=6)
14PROJ-Tremblay2702.11502.24.33.2 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
14PROJ-Bloom1301.0801.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=1)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.3)11 (-2.0)10 (-1.7)12 (-2.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.8)13 (-2.0)14 (-1.9)13 (-2.4)
10John Brown641157700007.712.710.212.7
10Cole Beasley46647400007.411.49.411.4
11James Washington63534900004.
11Tevin Jones36422400002.
12Allen Hurns577442100010.
12DeVante Parker631169100009.
13James Washington4444111100017.
13Diontae Johnson405114011703.

Tyler Boyd (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5900)

11@ OAK6131.0001100121.52.0
12vs PIT5895.0101100016.121.116.623.1
13vs NYJ55105.059100011.916.914.416.9
14PROJ-Dodds4.9620.21307.712.610.2 (H=17)12.6 (H=27)
14PROJ-Tremblay3.8420.21405.89.67.7 (H=10)9.6 (H=17)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0630.50009.314.311.8 (H=22)14.3 (H=33)

Auden Tate (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4000)

11@ OAK4864.05600005.
12vs PIT5031.0100000121.52.0
13vs NYJ5374.06600006.610.68.610.6
14PROJ-Dodds3.3480.200069.37.7 (H=12)9.3 (H=23)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.5330.10003.96.45.2 (H=6)6.4 (H=12)
14PROJ-Bloom4.0610.30007.911.99.9 (H=19)11.9 (H=36)

John Ross (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4400)

14PROJ-Dodds3.0410.20005.38.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=17)
14PROJ-Tremblay4.1610.30007.91210.0 (H=19)12.0 (H=33)
14PROJ-Bloom3.0430.30006.19.17.6 (H=12)9.1 (H=20)

Alex Erickson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3500)

11@ OAK4751.000000010.51.0
12vs PIT4682.04300004.
13vs NYJ4222.02100002.
14PROJ-Dodds2.1280.10003.45.54.5 (H=5)5.6 (H=11)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.5320.10003.86.35.1 (H=7)6.4 (H=14)
14PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=3)

Stanley Morgan (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11@ OAK000.000000000.00.0
12vs PIT000.000000000.00.0
13vs NYJ2220.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.4)15 (-0.5)19 (-0.0)17 (-0.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.2)9 (-3.2)9T (-2.7)9 (-3.4)
10Dawson Knox40645505.
11Vance McDonald71733303.
12Mike Gesicki57732818.811.810.311.8
13Vance McDonald54332102.

C.J. Uzomah (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2700)

11@ OAK3852.0500.
12vs PIT3610.000000.00.0
13vs NYJ4765.05105.110.17.610.1
14PROJ-Dodds1.8190. (H=3)4.3 (H=9)
14PROJ-Tremblay2.0200. (H=3)4.6 (H=10)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Tyler Eifert (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

11@ OAK2343.02102.
12vs PIT2211.0700.
13vs NYJ2521.01201.
14PROJ-Dodds2.0190. (H=3)4.5 (H=9)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.9160. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)
14PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-0.5)10T (-0.5)11 (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-2.2)6 (-2.2)4 (-3.0) (+0.0)
10Steve Hauschka0222222.02.0
11Chris Boswell0111111.01.0
12Jason Sanders1133666.06.0
13Chris Boswell2222888.08.0

Randy Bullock (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ OAK1211445.05.0
12vs PIT1111444.04.0
13vs NYJ2322889.09.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.7)23 (+0.7)24 (+1.3)24 (+1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-3.6)5T (-3.6)6 (-3.4)6 (-3.4)
10Buffalo Bills1936820000225.05.0
11Pittsburgh Steelers2129310000111.01.0
12Miami Dolphins414671100033-1.0-1.0
13Pittsburgh Steelers13279511009913.013.0

Cincinnati Bengals (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2100)

11@ OAK17.0038631100778.08.0
12vs PIT16.0033931000556.06.0
13vs NYJ6.00271400004413.013.0
14PROJ-Dodds24.303872.310.400. (H=17)7.2 (H=29)
14PROJ-Tremblay24.753832.21.10.400. (H=17)7.1 (H=28)

Bengals vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.7)24 (+2.7)25 (+3.4)24 (+2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+1.0)18 (+1.0)20 (+1.3)17 (+0.3)
10Lamar Jackson36151722330765135.735.733.433.4
11Derek Carr7025292921151123.723.720.820.8
12Devlin Hodges345111181031010.
13Sam Darnold7428482390029012.912.910.510.5

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6300)

11vs PIT7017321932011123.823.821.821.8
12vs MIA7524343273125027.927.924.627.6
13@ PIT6718321961112013139.010.0
14PROJ-Dodds20332491.60.9270.119.319.319.3 (H=44)19.3 (H=53)
14PROJ-Tremblay21342561.61.1280.119.519.519.5 (H=45)19.5 (H=54)
14PROJ-Bloom20292121.71130.117.317.317.3 (H=36)17.3 (H=44)

Bengals vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.5)26 (+3.2)25 (+3.1)25 (+3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.1)8 (-5.3)7 (-5.1)8 (-5.4)
10Mark Ingram23934100009.
10Gus Edwards11417000001.
11Josh Jacobs452311203312012.415.411.917.4
11DeAndre Washington92-10221401.
12Benny Snell3621980115010.311.310.811.3
12Kerrith Whyte7643000004.
13LeVeon Bell6310320543506.710.78.710.7
13Bilal Powell11414022401.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $8000)

11vs PIT512792010.0009.
12vs MIA4321106143.058022.425.423.928.4
13@ PIT411658021.02107.
14PROJ-Dodds20940.62.118014.816.915.9 (H=30)16.9 (H=33)
14PROJ-Tremblay19930.61.916014.516.415.5 (H=29)16.4 (H=31)
14PROJ-Bloom20830.42.0150.112.814.813.8 (H=23)14.8 (H=26)

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $6600)

11vs PIT39612086.04605.811.88.811.8
12vs MIA43837132.09010.612.611.612.6
13@ PIT45746055.019112.517.515.017.5
14PROJ-Dodds7310.24.3310.28.612.910.8 (H=19)12.9 (H=25)
14PROJ-Tremblay6260.24.4340.28.412.810.6 (H=18)12.8 (H=25)
14PROJ-Bloom7330.24.0280. (H=20)13.1 (H=26)

Bengals vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.0)10 (-2.6)11 (-1.5)10 (-2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.7)10 (-5.1)9 (-4.4)9 (-5.5)
10Marquise Brown194480100014.
10Willie Snead22321200001.
11Tyrell Williams51448200008.
11Hunter Renfrow31656600006.611.69.111.6
12James Washington587398100015.818.817.318.8
12Deon Cain10113500003.
13Robby Anderson65107101000010.117.113.620.1
13Vyncint Smith20322300002.

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6500)

11vs PIT6574.043100010.314.312.314.3
12vs MIA711310.0148200026.836.831.839.8
13@ PIT67116.07600007.613.610.613.6
14PROJ-Dodds5.4760.500010.61613.3 (H=24)16.0 (H=37)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.7820.500011.216.914.0 (H=26)16.9 (H=41)
14PROJ-Bloom6.0680.600010.416.413.4 (H=24)16.4 (H=39)

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6300)

11vs PIT65104.06000006108.010.0
12vs MIA7586.084100014.420.417.420.4
13@ PIT6563.02900002.
14PROJ-Dodds5.2750.40009.915.112.5 (H=23)15.1 (H=34)
14PROJ-Tremblay5.4780.400010.215.612.9 (H=24)15.6 (H=37)
14PROJ-Bloom5.0720.40009.614.612.1 (H=22)14.6 (H=32)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs PIT2900.000000000.00.0
12vs MIA2510.000000000.00.0
13@ PIT2930.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.8120.10001.82.62.2 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.7110.10001.72.42.1 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Khadarel Hodge (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

11vs PIT1021.04100004.
12vs MIA910.000000000.00.0
13@ PIT2100.000000000.00.0
14PROJ-Dodds0.4700000.71.10.9 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
14PROJ-Tremblay0.4500000.50.90.7 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Bengals vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.0)17 (-0.3)18 (-0.3)16 (-0.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.9)26 (+5.6)27 (+4.8)27 (+5.5)
10Mark Andrews248653217.323.320.323.3
11Darren Waller66757807.612.610.112.6
12Vance McDonald6311100.
13Ryan Griffin62753003.

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

11vs PIT4200.000000.00.0
12vs MIA5122.0200243.04.0
13@ PIT4341.02302.
14PROJ-Dodds1.3160. (H=3)4.1 (H=8)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.5160. (H=4)4.3 (H=8)
14PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Stephen Carlson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

11vs PIT1211.0816.
12vs MIA3611.0800.
13@ PIT1822.02802.
14PROJ-Dodds0.890. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)
14PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Bengals vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+1.9)19T (+1.9)28 (+1.6) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+0.6)19T (+0.6)19 (+0.3) (+0.0)
10Justin Tucker0077777.07.0
11Daniel Carlson1122555.05.0
12Chris Boswell3311101011.011.0
13Sam Ficken2200667.07.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11vs PIT0233333.03.0
12vs MIA2355111112.012.0
13@ PIT2211777.07.0

Bengals vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.5)27 (+2.5)29 (+3.5)29 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.2)30 (+4.2)32 (+4.9)32 (+4.9)
10Baltimore Ravens1330721202262624.024.0
11Oakland Raiders10246511009913.013.0
12Pittsburgh Steelers10244402008812.012.0
13New York Jets2227710010332.02.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3600)

11vs PIT7.0023644000121216.016.0
12vs MIA24.0028442000888.08.0
13@ PIT20.0032311000334.04.0
14PROJ-Dodds16.903102.51.10.900.612.112.112.1 (H=32)12.1 (H=41)
14PROJ-Tremblay16.253152.3110.10.612.212.212.2 (H=33)12.2 (H=42)