Matchup Analysis: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Buccaneers 24, Jaguars 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Buccaneers Offense28.4 (+6.0) (3)98 (-13) (20)288 (+52) (4)
Jaguars Defense24.0 (+1.6) (22)142 (+30) (29)222 (-13) (10)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense19.0 (-3.4) (26)119 (+7) (14)251 (+15) (10)
Buccaneers Defense30.5 (+8.1) (31)79 (-32) (2)290 (+54) (31)

Buccaneers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Tampa Bay rushing offense came back to life last week as they put up 133 rushing yards on the heels of solid days from Ronald Jones and Jameis Winston. Jones led the backfield with 12 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown, but just narrowly out-touched Peyton Barber, who had 11 carries for 32 yards. Jones has now led or tied for leading this backfield in carries in all five games since the Week 7 bye, but both Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale remain involved on the ground. Jameis Winston flashed his rushing prowess last week and has done so much more often in recent weeks. After failing to exceed 15 rushing yards in the six games to open the season, Winston has since averaged 32.4 rushing yards per game in his last five outings. The Buccaneers offensive line continues to play as a below-average unit though, which helps the rushing upside of Winston but will continue to inhibit the committee of running backs in this backfield.

The Jaguars continue to struggle against the run, allowing Derrick Henry to run wild last week as the Titans put up 219 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns against this Jacksonville defense. This Jaguars team has now given up four 100+ yard rushers and five rushing touchdowns in their last three games, ranking th8em very firmly at the top of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs over that span. This defense did have some decent games against the run earlier in the season, but only when facing very poor offenses with questionable offensive lines. While Tampa Bay does have a questionable offensive line, their offense is more than capable of putting up points and forcing this defense into another negative game script. Calais Campbell is undoubtedly an elite run-defender, but he can’t do it all and this linebacker group behind him has proven to be one of the worst in the league against the run.

Buccaneers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

Jameis Winston has been slinging the ball all over the field this season, for better or for worse. While he ranks second in the league with 3,391 passing yards, including over 300 yards in six straight games, he also handily leads the league with 20 interceptions, including eight over the past three weeks. Winston has absolutely no fear as he continues to force the ball downfield to his pair of elite wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Between the two, Godwin and Evans have exceeded 150 receiving yards in six separate games. There have been just three games this season in which one of these receivers did not cross the 100-yard mark and just two games in which neither of them scored a touchdown. While it remains very difficult to predict which one will go off, it is almost assured that this passing offense will run through these two wide receivers as no other targets with any level of consistency have emerged for Winston.

The Jaguars passing defense has done a solid job at limiting production through the air for most of the season, as they haven’t given up more than 280 passing yards in a game since Week 4, allowing just 218 passing yards per game from Week 5 onwards--seventh-fewest in the league over that span. They have given up multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games, but only three of their seven receiving touchdowns over that span have gone to wide receivers as this secondary and cornerbacks group has done a nice job in coverage. A.J. Brown from the Titans did break free for a big game last week, but that was at the behest of poor tackling after the catch rather than consistently poor coverage. A.J. Bouye remains a stout matchup for any wide receiver while D.J. Hayden is doing an excellent job from the slot. The matchup to watch this week will be whoever lines up against Tre Herndon, as he has played terribly in his second season as a pro and could easily be exploited for some big plays. With Chris Godwin manning the slot on most plays, look for Mike Evans to see more of those advantageous snaps against Herndon as Evans should have the slight edge for being the top Tampa Bay wide receiver this week.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Leonard Fournette saw plenty of action in last week’s game against the Titans, and he ran relatively well considering the tough matchup--rushing 24 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns. Those two touchdowns were just his second and third of the season as Fournette finally broke through a scoring slump, which made very little sense considering the volume he has been getting. Volume is certainly a big plus for Fournette in this rushing offense, as he ranks tied as the sixth-most utilized rusher in the league with 206 attempts while last week’s game marked the fifth time this season he has rushed 20 or more times. Fournette is the only viable option for this backfield and should continue to have a big opportunity for carries this week. A couple of guys on this Jaguars offensive line continue to play through injuries, but everyone suited up last week and looks good to go for this one. This is just an average unit though, and they will certainly be at a disadvantage against one of the top run defenses in football here.

Tampa Bay ranks second in the NFL against the run, giving up an average of just 78.7 rushing yards per game overall. Specific to running backs, this group has actually allowed a league-low 62 rushing yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game (non-PPR). That success has been sustained in recent weeks as the Buccaneers have given up just the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs over their last five games. Interior lineman Vita Vea is not only scoring touchdowns on offense nowadays, but he continues to be one of the top run-stopping linemen in the league. Shaquil Barrett continues to wreak havoc in his matchups while play from linebacker Lavonte Davis also remains spectacular. This Tampa Bay front seven should have a clear advantage over Jacksonville here, and they very likely will load the box and force this Jaguars defense to beat them through the air in lieu of giving up a big day to Leonard Fournette.

Jaguars Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Buccaneers defense.

Nick Foles is putting up solid yardage back under center for the Jaguars, but that is about all he has contributed as those yards are not consistently translating into sustained drives and points. Foles passed for 296 yards and two touchdowns in his debut, but last week he amassed 272 yards with no touchdowns as he routinely played it safe with Leonard Fournette as the focal point of this passing offense. Foles now has question marks around his job security, however, the Jaguars coaching staff remains firm that a quarterback change is not in consideration for this week. D.J. Chark went from 15 targets in Week 11 to just six last week, but he is still the most talented receiver Foles has at his disposal and should bounce back in a better matchup this week. Chris Conley has actually seen a consistent volume of targets with between 7-9 in each of his last five outings, and he has been a focal point for Foels despite missing a number of opportunities after accounting for 176 air yards from his nine targets last week, but hauling in only four of those for 49 yards. Leonard Fournette has been having a spectacular season through the air, as he put up a season-high nine receptions for 62 receiving yards last week and has now hauled in at least five receptions in four straight games. With a career-high 33 touches in last week’s game, Fournette has to be considered as the focal point for both this passing and rushing offense.

No team has allowed more yards to wide receivers than Tampa Bay, as this secondary stacks up as one of the worst in the league. Three receivers each cleared 65 yards against this team last week while they gave up over 110 yards each to four separate receivers and eight receiving touchdowns in the three preceding games. Quarterbacks have exceeded 320 passing yards in seven of the 11 games played against this defense as they are one of just two teams to have allowed an average of over 300 passing yards per game, fueling why they have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The only bright spot for this secondary is rookie cornerback Jamel Dean, who has started in three of the past four games and played relatively well. Still, the Jaguars receivers should all have advantages with plenty of upside for big plays against these underwhelming Buccaneers safeties.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+1.0)19 (+1.0)20 (+1.5)21 (+1.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+4.6)30 (+4.6)30 (+4.7)30 (+4.1)
9Deshaun Watson70222820120737021.821.819.719.7
11Jacoby Brissett66152414811212117.617.616.116.1
12Ryan Tannehill53141825920740237.037.032.433.4

Jameis Winston (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6300)

10vs ARI85304835812340023.923.920.323.3
11vs NO683051313242230222218.821.8
12@ ATL66182831332838029.529.526.329.3
13PROJ-Dodds23372831.71.24190.122.322.322.3 (H=56)22.3 (H=68)
13PROJ-Tremblay24382861.71.44190. (H=56)22.2 (H=68)
13PROJ-Bloom18292371.913190.120.920.920.9 (H=50)20.9 (H=61)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+3.9)25 (+3.2)25 (+3.4)26 (+3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+16.9)32 (+15.3)32 (+15.0)32 (+17.9)
9Carlos Hyde39191600000016.
9Duke Johnson3371315568014.119.116.619.1
11Marlon Mack21141091000016.916.916.919.9
11Jonathan Williams311311601131014.715.715.218.7
12Derrick Henry401915921116029.530.528.032.5
12Dion Lewis85210212404.

Ronald Jones (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5100)

10vs ARI401129188.077016.624.618.623.6
11vs NO21413042.0101.
12@ ATL331251133.016012.715.714.215.7
13PROJ-Dodds12520.42.7200.110.212.911.6 (H=22)12.9 (H=32)
13PROJ-Tremblay13560.42.8220.110.813.612.2 (H=24)13.6 (H=36)
13PROJ-Bloom13600.52.0130.110.912.911.9 (H=23)12.9 (H=32)

Peyton Barber (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3500)

10vs ARI221143111.04010.711.711.211.7
11vs NO1200022.01117.
12@ ATL151132010.0003.
13PROJ-Dodds8350.20.8505.265.6 (H=7)6.0 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay7310.20.6404.75.35.0 (H=6)5.3 (H=10)
13PROJ-Bloom12510. (H=16)9.6 (H=28)

Dare Ogunbowale (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

10vs ARI2200033.02402.
11vs NO2920043.0100142.54.0
12@ ATL14112010.0001.
13PROJ-Dodds2601.51101.73.22.4 (H=1)3.2 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay1501.41001.52.92.2 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
13PROJ-Bloom0001.0600.61.61.1 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.0)12 (-1.2)12 (-1.1)13 (-1.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.6)10 (-4.3)13 (-3.4)12 (-4.4)
9DeAndre Hopkins7011848116011.419.415.419.4
9Kenny Stills60445200005.
11Marcus Johnson63443810009.813.811.813.8
11Chester Rogers322111011802.
12A.J. Brown3754135100019.523.521.526.5
12Corey Davis39322900002.

Chris Godwin (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $7700)

10vs ARI79126.07400007.413.410.413.4
11vs NO6863.047100010.713.712.213.7
12@ ATL5887.0184200030.437.433.940.4
13PROJ-Dodds5.7790.600011.517.214.4 (H=24)17.2 (H=35)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.3760.501010.71613.4 (H=21)16.0 (H=31)
13PROJ-Bloom6.0760.700011.817.814.8 (H=25)17.8 (H=38)

Mike Evans (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6900)

10vs ARI7564.08200008.
11vs NO6584.06900006.910.98.910.9
12@ ATL6184.0500000597.09.0
13PROJ-Dodds5.2840.500011.416.614.0 (H=25)16.6 (H=37)
13PROJ-Tremblay5.6840.500011.41714.2 (H=25)17.0 (H=39)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0770.700011.915.913.9 (H=24)15.9 (H=34)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

10vs ARI5742.01700001.
11vs NO3631.0200000232.53.0
12@ ATL2611.04400004.
13PROJ-Dodds1.5210.20003.34.84.1 (H=4)4.8 (H=9)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0180.10002.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)

Scott Miller (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs ARI1132.03300003.
11vs NO3564.07100007.
12@ ATL1911.0801-
13PROJ-Dodds1.5200.10002.64.13.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.4180.10102.53.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0290.10003.55.54.5 (H=5)5.5 (H=12)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.5)9 (-1.8)11 (-1.0)9 (-1.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.0)5 (-4.9)5 (-3.9)5 (-5.0)
9Darren Fells5931116.
11Eric Ebron29442702.
12MyCole Pruitt27112002.

Cameron Brate (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3100)

10vs ARI1500.000000.00.0
11vs NO511410.07307.317.312.317.3
12@ ATL2110.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds2.2220. (H=5)5.6 (H=12)
13PROJ-Tremblay2.5220. (H=5)5.9 (H=13)
13PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

O.J. Howard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

10vs ARI8474.047110.714.712.714.7
11vs NO1710.000000.00.0
12@ ATL5121.0100121.52.0
13PROJ-Dodds1.6200. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.6180.12.443.2 (H=3)4.0 (H=7)
13PROJ-Bloom1.0130. (H=1)2.9 (H=4)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-0.4)11 (-0.4)22T (-0.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.4)20 (+0.4)22 (+0.7) (+0.0)
9Kaimi Fairbairn23238811.011.0
11Adam Vinatieri1144777.07.0
12Ryan Succop0066666.06.0

Matt Gay (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

10vs ARI3333121214.014.0
11vs NO1122557.07.0
12@ ATL1125555.05.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.7)14T (-0.7)18T (+0.1)18T (+0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (-0.4)14T (-0.4)27 (+3.3)27 (+3.3)
9Houston Texans335642200121219.019.0
11Indianapolis Colts1330821000448.08.0
12Tennessee Titans2036930100556.06.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $2900)

10vs ARI27.0041721100666.06.0
11vs NO34.0032810000110.00.0
12@ ATL22.0033761101222216.016.0
13PROJ-Dodds24.203462.10.80.500. (H=16)7.4 (H=22)
13PROJ-Tremblay25.003442.210.600. (H=18)7.9 (H=24)

Buccaneers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+5.7)31 (+5.7)31 (+5.2)31 (+6.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+8.2)31 (+8.4)31 (+8.0)31 (+8.9)
9Russell Wilson75294337850121041.
10Kyler Murray70274432431338031.031.027.830.8
11Drew Brees6728352283030023.423.421.121.1
12Matt Ryan7623462710118013.413.48.69.6

Nick Foles (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $5700)

11@ IND6333472962100021.821.818.818.8
12@ TEN86324827200320015.615.614.914.9
13PROJ-Dodds22352481.70.9350.119.419.419.4 (H=45)19.4 (H=59)
13PROJ-Tremblay22352471.71470. (H=48)20.1 (H=63)
13PROJ-Bloom20332071.71110.116.916.916.9 (H=35)16.9 (H=46)

Buccaneers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.4)3 (-6.4)2 (-6.7)2 (-7.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-6.1)9 (-4.4)5 (-6.1)9 (-4.9)
9Chris Carson641610502228013.315.312.317.3
9Rashaad Penny11412010001.
10Kenyan Drake451035076604.
10David Johnson3052011801.02.0-0.51.0
11Alvin Kamara4313750101047012.
11Latavius Murray291027032503.
12Qadree Ollison23820111708.
12Brian Hill519140431302.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $7500)

11@ IND45823077.03405.712.79.212.7
12@ TEN8224972129.062027.936.932.436.9
13PROJ-Dodds19760.64.8340.115.22017.6 (H=37)20.0 (H=47)
13PROJ-Tremblay20820.64.5330.115.720.218.0 (H=39)20.2 (H=48)
13PROJ-Bloom20690.55.0320.113.718.716.2 (H=32)18.7 (H=42)

Ryquell Armstead (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $4400)

11@ IND1416022.01301.
12@ TEN400010.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds390.11.3902.43.73.1 (H=3)3.7 (H=4)
13PROJ-Tremblay270.10.97022.92.5 (H=2)2.9 (H=2)
13PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Buccaneers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+9.3)32 (+12.6)32 (+11.4)32 (+14.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+17.0)32 (+23.0)32 (+20.5)32 (+25.4)
9Tyler Lockett691813152200027.240.233.743.2
9DK Metcalf7196123117019.
10Christian Kirk67106138300031.837.834.840.8
10Andy Isabella26337800007.810.89.310.8
11Michael Thomas57118114100017.425.421.428.4
11Ted Ginn38421410007.
12Calvin Ridley74146851115016.
12Russell Gage641087600007.615.611.615.6

D.J. Chark (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6600)

11@ IND59158.0104200022.430.426.433.4
12@ TEN8365.03800003.88.88.310.8
13PROJ-Dodds4.8690.600010.515.312.9 (H=24)15.3 (H=34)
13PROJ-Tremblay4.6650.600010.114.712.4 (H=22)14.7 (H=31)
13PROJ-Bloom5.0710.700011.316.313.8 (H=27)16.3 (H=38)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

11@ IND6086.05800005.811.88.811.8
12@ TEN6594.04900004.
13PROJ-Dodds3.4510.30006.910.38.6 (H=13)10.3 (H=25)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.4500.30006.810.28.5 (H=13)10.2 (H=24)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0520.40007.611.69.6 (H=16)11.6 (H=31)

Dede Westbrook (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $5000)

11@ IND5364.03200003.
12@ TEN7498.06900006.914.910.914.9
13PROJ-Dodds4.1440.30006.210.38.3 (H=13)10.4 (H=23)
13PROJ-Tremblay3.3390.30005.797.4 (H=11)9.1 (H=18)
13PROJ-Bloom4.0350.40005.99.98.0 (H=12)10.0 (H=21)

Keelan Cole (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3600)

11@ IND2554.04100004.
12@ TEN3122.01800001.
13PROJ-Dodds1.6190.20003.14.73.9 (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.6200.20003.24.84.0 (H=4)4.8 (H=8)
13PROJ-Bloom2.0170.10002.34.33.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=6)

Buccaneers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)31 (+3.7)31 (+4.7)31 (+4.2)31 (+5.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.2)16 (-0.4)19 (+0.4)16 (-0.5)
9Jacob Hollister606437215.719.717.719.7
10Maxx Williams31211501.
11Jared Cook49223319.311.310.311.3
12Jaeden Graham57215305.

Nick OLeary (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

12@ TEN4544.03603.
13PROJ-Dodds2.1200. (H=5)5.3 (H=11)
13PROJ-Tremblay1.9190.23.154.1 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)

Ben Koyack (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

11@ IND1611.0900.
12@ TEN4410.000000.00.0
13PROJ-Dodds0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
13PROJ-Tremblay0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)

Buccaneers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+2.9)32 (+2.9)32 (+3.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+2.6)29 (+2.6)27 (+2.9) (+0.0)
9Jason Myers2423888.08.0
10Zane Gonzalez22339911.011.0
11Wil Lutz2244101011.011.0
12Younghoe Koo3311101011.011.0

Josh Lambo (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

11@ IND0111111.01.0
12@ TEN2200669.09.0

Buccaneers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+3.5)22T (+3.5)18T (+2.9)18T (+2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.1)22 (+1.1)18T (+0.3)18T (+0.3)
9Seattle Seahawks3441820100443.03.0
10Arizona Cardinals304574210010109.09.0
11New Orleans Saints1733424001161617.017.0
12Atlanta Falcons3544602000443.03.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $3300)

11@ IND33.0038931100776.06.0
12@ TEN42.0047110200551.01.0
13PROJ-Dodds23.703892.81.20.600. (H=18)8.5 (H=24)
13PROJ-Tremblay24.004022.51.40.600. (H=18)8.6 (H=25)